Nassalam’s chase OR

[TheTinMan87]

Sorry but I agree with FF about him struggling to win a race for a long time. I’m very surprised they’ve gone as harsh as they have with his rise in the weights. Would you back him in a Peter Marsh which would likely be on horrendous ground where he’d get 5lbs in a limited handicap from Royale Pagaille? I don’t think I would. On another sad note I see the 5th home from Chepstow passed away RIP Complete Unknown so it was effectively 4 finishers.

[Kendicate]

I doubt nassalam will win another race for a long time now

[Gingertipster]

LD,
The Savills Chase to Racing Post Standard was nothing exceptional compared to other times at Leopardstown on the day (judged on seconds per furlong slower than standard). Which imo suggests the early gallop was not as quick as you believe. Although they certainly increased the pace from a fair way out, so some finished tired. But even without the pace factor, this was on a flat track at a trip of over two furlongs shorter than the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Nothing like what Cheltenham’s 3m2f110yrds could be in a truly run race on heavy. Yes, those conditions are unlikely at Cheltenham in March, but not unheard of.

Yes, GDC stays 3m2f110yrds and acts on pretty soft ground… But does he stay 3m2f110yrds on bottomless ground? We don’t know that yet… And remember that in order to be certain he’d stay the trip last year connections changed tactics to holding him up. Don’t go thinking the ground was testing last year either, officially “soft”, the time was by Racing Post Standard “Fast” by 0.54 seconds. Bravemansgame would not stay that trip on truly soft ground, and he was a good second, a long way clear of the third… Yes, Noble Yeats himself would have been more effective at the Gold Cup trip had it been proper soft ground. Even so, came to within a rapidly decreasing 1 1/4 lengths of being in the first three. Which proved he (a Grand National winner) deserved his place in the field.

Anyway, my arguement is not that Nassalam has a favourite’s chance in the Gold Cup; he just imo deserves both the rating of 161 and the chance to run in the Gold Cup. Do agree the French race might be a good alternative.

Watering means the Grand National is also more likely to be run on softer ground than used to be the case… And the added distance / stamina test might (I only say “might”) mean he’ll be effective on good-soft. Although having said that, one exceptional TRFer did once point out to me that the Welsh National is often a greater test of stamina than its English version. ie Despite the much longer trip, they often need to go slower at Aintree than Chepstow due to stiffer course (undulations) and softer ground… And that (I believe) was before the reduction in distance at Liverpool. Unless the ground is testing, when assessing the Grand national I’d still rather have a 3m2f park course horse who might stay further, rather than an out and out stayer… But it is not a rock solid rule because…

Value is Everything.

Value Is Everything

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