My Flat Season 10 To Follow 2011

[Robert Gibbs]

Horses to follow lists spring up all over the place, it’s not a new thing, but I often find them interesting. The majority of them tend to concentrate on horses that are likely to be aimed at the top races, and without being rude (in case anyone reading this has compiled such a list) I really don’t need to be told that Frankel is "one to follow" this season.
The idea of this list is to try and highlight horses whom I think could be worth following throughout the whole of the flat season. Every time one runs I’ll highlight it on the daily preview, I obviously won’t be backing them all every time they run. But providing they run within the fairly loose parameters I have set them, they will count for purposes of keeping a level stakes check on how they are getting on.

I watch the majority of races more than once, and make a lot of notes, albeit not in the most organised fashion. By referring to these, and having gone back and watched literally hundreds of flat races again in the past weeks, I have drawn up this list of horses. A few have group race aspirations, a couple should be contesting some decent handicaps, and the rest more ordinary handicaps. Eight of the ten are three year olds, and I believe they are all capable of improving on their current official ratings. I’ve obtained quotes from the trainers of six of them, and I’d like to thank all those for taking the time to respond to my communications with them.

BEAT THE RUSH – 4 Year Old Gelding – Trainer – Julie Camacho – OR 85

I’ve followed this horses career ever since his two year old debut, and I think he could land a really good handicap this year. I’ve long been a fan of the yard, but it’s not often a horse of theirs will go close on it’s racecourse debut and the fact that he was very green but finished second augured well for the future. He had four starts in total during his juvenile season, which culminated in a nursery win off a mark of 65 over a mile at Pontefract.
He began his three year old career with a fine effort at Beverley over 1m4f when just touched off by Corsica, who went on to Listed and Group race glory before finishing third in the St Leger! Desert Recluse who was third on that occasion won two good handicaps later on and was twice placed off marks in the 90’s. He went up 4lb in the handicap for that, but was found a weak opportunity at Beverley and duly collected with the minimum of fuss. A step up in class awaited in a 0-100 at Haydock, and he ran a strange race that day, as he never looked entirely happy, and having looked like dropping out, he rallied into fourth place close home, albeit eight lengths behind the winner Awsaal.
He then had a confidence boosting win at Ripon before returning to the same Yorkshire venue and finding Vulcanite too hot to handle. Vulcanite went on to win a heritage handicap at Ascot off 97, so there was no disgrace at all in that defeat. The season finished with him trailing in last at York, but that clearly wasn’t his running and connections later reported that he failed to handle the soft ground which he was encountering for the first time in his career.
This horse reminds me very much of his half brother Bouggler, in that he shows a very willing attitude and his stride covers a lot of ground. He’s only had ten starts to date and I think there is every chance of further progression, particularly over further than 1m4f. I contacted Julie Camacho and she had this to say

"Beats has wintered well and looks a stronger horse this year which is pleasing. We plan to start him off this season in the Musselburgh Gold Cup on April 23rd and from there we have two or three races in mind depending on how he fairs"

I’m not surprised to here that he looks stronger this year as he’s a rangy sort and I think he’s done well to achieve a rating of 85 thus far. The yard deserve to have another good horse after they lost Rio Riva and in Beat The Rush I think they have. He will need to go up the handicap beforehand, but who knows he may even be a contender for the Ebor come August.

When to back: Over 1m4f+ on ground no worse than good to soft.

CUNNING ACT – 3 Year Old Gelding – Trainer – Jonathan Portman – OR 69

This is one of the more obscure horses on the list, but I made a note of him on two of his three starts last season and therefore had to include him. Mr Portman used to train his dam Saffron Fox who won a Newmarket maiden early in her career, but she didn’t progress from that and was only a modest handicapper by the time she retired, by which time she stayed 2 miles. He is out of Act One and I’m sure he will stay at least 1m4f this season.
He didn’t show too much promise on his debut run at Bath in August, although he was hampered late on that day. A couple of weeks later he reappeared at Newbury in a maiden over 7f that was won by Fury, who went on to win the valuable Tattersalls sales race at Newmarket. He was always just struggling to keep up on ground that was probably firmer than ideal, he didn’t give up and was making ground close home, beaten just over six lengths by the winner. It was probably only an average maiden event by Newbury standards, but several had already shown promise and a couple went on to run well subsequently.
On his final start he stepped back up to a mile at Windsor and missed the break by a couple of lengths. He soon latched on to the back of the pack and travelled well on the soft ground before getting outpaced about a quarter of a mile out He stayed on well though to snatch third close home in front of the 76 rated Another Laugh. Secret Edge who finished over two lengths behind in fifth came out and ran well to finish third in a soft ground Nottingham maiden ten days later.
This is what the trainer had to say about him a couple of days ago when I contacted him:

"Cunning Act is back in training following a winter break. He has grown but is still fairly narrow. He is in good form though and I am very happy with him. I hope he can find some easy ground in April and we’ll take things from there. He will probably start off over 10f, but ought to stay further. His rating of 69 is higher than I would have liked to have started his three year old career from. There were better horses than him in the Windsor maiden but he coped with the softer conditions better. But having said that he is still a horse to follow"

I think he’s right to say that a few of those in the Windsor maiden will probably obtain higher marks than him this season, although having said that both Choral and Another Laugh who were second and fourth had more experience than him going into that race. I don’t think the handicapper had much leeway with his rating, he could have had him a pound either side of 69, but on that Windsor thats about where he had to be.
Virtually everything about him suggests he should be able to improve on his two year efforts over further at three, and I would be hopeful that he can pick up a middle distance handicap or two this year, probably when the word soft is in the going description.

When to back: Over 1m2f+ on ground no faster than good.

The yard’s well designed website is worth a look http://www.jonathanportmanracing.com/

DEEP APPLAUSE – 3 Year Old Gelding – Trainer – Michael Dods – OR 67

Four unplaced efforts as a juvenile don’t tell the full story for this son of Royal Applause. His dam is an unraced daughter of Silver Rhapsody, a group three winner for Henry Cecil who went on to finish third to Ramruma in the Yorkshire Oaks. He made his racecourse debut at Carlisle over 6f in June and he showed a fair amount of speed despite running green. A trip to Newcastle for a 7f maiden was up next, and he appeared to get a little outpaced when they quickened the tempo past halfway, but despite running around in the closing stages, he stayed on stoutly and was only beaten just over four lengths into fourth place. That wasn’t the strongest event, but several of those that finished around him went on to either win or be placed off marks in the high 60’s or low 70’s.
His third run was again over 7f, this time at Ayr. He was held up way off the pace, and was just beginning to make some headway when he was short of room up the rail, about 2f out. The jockey wasn’t hard on him when his chance of being involved at the finish had gone, but he still ran on well enough under tender handling.
The handicapper allotted him a mark of 70, and his final start of the season came in a nursery over a mile at Pontefract. Again he was held up out the back in a seventeen runner field, and he never really looked like landing a blow, finishing tenth, although still only beaten six lengths.
The most notable aspect of all of his runs was the fact that at no stage did he have a hard race. From what I could see on screen, he wasn’t hit with the whip more than twice in any of his races, and even on his last run at Pontefract, he was still quite green.
His first two starts were particularly encouraging given how quiet the yard were in mid summer. He will surely only have improved from two to three and he looks more than capable of winning off an opening mark of 67. It’s hard to know exactly what his best trip will be this season, but he showed enough speed over 6f, that I doubt he will be seen over a trip in excess of 1m2f.

When to back – In 1m to 1m2f handicaps avoiding extremes of ground (firm/heavy)

DRIFT AND DREAM – 4 Year Old Filly – Trainer – Chris Wall – OR 82

I’m not sure Chris Wall is under rated, as I suspect that if I were to ask a lot of "racing professionals" most would say he’s a good trainer. Perhaps under appreciated is a better turn of phrase for a man who has a strike rate of just over 46% in the past five seasons for horses finishing in the first four. In fact he is one of the few trainers who is showing a postitive figure to a level £1 stake on all of his horses, again based on the last five seasons (Turf). It helps when compiling a list such as this to have the horse in question trained by someone who you know will put them in the right races.
Drift and Dream goes into her four year old season having had nine racecourse starts to date, winning three of those, and finishing placed in four others. She looks every inch a sprinter, and appears to have quite some engine. The most striking thing about her is the way she travelled through her races last season. In her three starts at Sandown, she was pretty much the last one off the bridle each time, and yet she then goes on and picks up, and finishes her race off well too.
After a slightly disappointing start to last season when fourth at Newmarket, she scored at Sandown, picking up after travelling well and seeing a lot of daylight throughout. She then went to Doncaster over 6f, and after again cruising through the race, she took up the running only to be run out of it close home. She has such a high natural cruising speed, that last season at least, I don’t think she quite saw out the last hundred yards over the extra furlong.
So it was back to Sandown over 5f next, and she produced probably her most impressive effort to date to score easily off a mark of 76. She had a bit of a rough passage just after half way, but she burst up the far rail and won going away by a length and a half. Her final start of last season was again at the Esher venue, and she looked a most unlucky loser. From a wide draw Seb Sanders immediately crossed over to the far rail, and she was still going well approaching the 2f pole. The gap didn’t appear immediately, but the split did come and she began to make up ground on the front two, just when things looked promising, she got an almighty bump which completely put an end to her chances. At the very least she would have been second, but I’m fairly sure should could have won that race.
Given her size, the fact shes only had nine starts, and the yard she comes from, I would suggest it’s reasonable to expect there is more improvement will prove forthcoming, forgetting anyway that she is in effect a winner without a penalty. I would imagine at some point connections will try and pick up some black type with her, and I’m sure that is achievable, as they’re a fair number fillies/mares’ listed races over sprints distances in the calendar.
She looks a very straightforward filly, in that she has won seeing lots of daylight, and she can also win from behind,coming through a pack of horses. Off an opening mark of 82, I would hope she might be able to win a nice handicap and possibly progress into a 90+ rated filly, with as I say listed races possibly on the agenda at some point. She appears to go on any ground, and has that touch of class about her, I think she is certainly one to follow this season.

When to back: This part is fairly redundant, Over 5f (or an easy 6f) on any ground

INDIESLAD – 3 Year Old Gelding – Trainer – Ann Duffield – OR 80

Ann Duffield had a good season with her two year olds in 2010, and Zenella is the highest rated of those after winning a listed event over a mile on her final start at Pontefract. Here’s hoping she goes on to pick up more black type this time around, but it was Indieslad who really caught my eye, and I think he look’s capable of landing a nice handicap as a three year old.
His dam Sontime was no superstar, but she was quite speedy and thats clearly been passed onto this fellow. He cost 24,000 guineas as a yearling, and given his somewhat modest breeding, he clearly attracted a few admirers on his looks alone. He didn’t see the racecourse until July, and his five races came within a period of less than two months.
He made his debut over 5f at Thirsk on good ground, and showed good speed throughout before just running a little green when asked for his effort at the furlong pole. He kept on willingly though and was beaten just three quarters of a length into third, behind the winner Cathedral Spires who had already had the advantage of two starts, and who subsequently finished a fair fifth in a sales race at Redcar.
Indieslad returned to Thirsk a little over two weeks later, and after missing the break he recovered well and ran on stoutly to finish a clear second behind Major Muscari, who achieved a rating of 84 and went on to run well off marks in the low 80’s afterwards. The third that day went on to win his maiden, and whilst it wasn’t a great race, it was ok by Thirsk standards, and he did well to get so close after his poor start.
Just ten days later he lined up in the Valuable DBS sales race Doncaster. Again he was slowly into stride and in the circumstances I think it was a very respectable effort to finish eighth of eighteen behind Guineas hopeful Wootton Bassett. He quickly made his way to sit in mid division and stayed on well without being able to make up ground on the leaders. He was surrounded that day by horses who had already achieved a rating of 90+, and whilst you often have to treat the form of these sales races with caution, it was clearly his best effort to date.
The handicapper allotted him a mark of 85, which I think was probably about fair, and he started favourite nine days after his Doncaster run for a 6f maiden at Redcar. Funny things happen at Redcar, I don’t know why, but a lot of the "form" horses get turned over on fast ground in maidens there, and thats exactly what happened to him. Thats not to say he didn’t run well, but after looking the likely winner passing the furlong pole, he appeared to hang into the centre of the course, either away from the whip or possibly the fairly large, and rather vocal crowd, in the end he finished a close up third behind the newcomer Robert The Painter, who went on to finish second off a mark of 80, and the fourth Boundaries won a nursery off 77, so whilst he didn’t run to his mark of 85, it was by no means disastrous.
His final start was at Beverley in a 5f maiden a few weeks later, and after just stumbling leaving the stalls, he was soon tracking the leaders going well. Paul Hanagan started to get after him passing the two pole and the gap opened up nicely next to the rails. He quickly took advantage and won by a length and three quarters, going away, from a Kevin Ryan newcomer. The third and fourth were only ordinary, but you often find horses are able to outrun their official ratings in non handicap sprints. In fact it happens at Beverley quite often, Pawan immediately springs to mind, but a lot of horses over the last few years have finished "uncomfortably close" to coin a phrase in conditions events. Therefore the handicapper may have been a little generous in dropping his rating, and he now goes to war from a starting point of 80.
I’m not saying he is well handicapped, but neither do I think he’s poorly handicapper, and he certainly looks the type to go on and improve as a three year old. Ann Duffield kindly answered my request for an update on his wellbeing and she had this to say

*Indieslad has done very well through the winter, filling out and maturing nicely. He did well last season and hopefully will train on and make a decent three year old sprinter"

He looked a likeable type on all starts last season, despite showing a few signs of greenness. I would imagine 6f will be his ideal trip this time around as he wasn’t stopping at the end of his Beverley race. He looks to have a good action and probably won’t want conditions too much on the soft side.

When to back: Over a stiff 5f or 6f on ground no worse than good to soft.

Ann updates her site regularly, why not take a look http://www.annduffield.co.uk/

KARAM ALBAARI – Three Year Old Colt – Trainer – John Jenkins – OR 109

The highest rated on my list by quite some way, but I still think he will be overlooked by most. I was at Kempton in September for his racecourse debut on the polytrack and he did stand out in the paddock. However the fact that he was from the John Jenkins yard, who had only had three juvenile winners in the previous four seasons and none that won first time out, meant that I stuck to my original selection and the proven form of Les Verguettes, who of course duly finished second! Despite running a little green early on, he kicked into overdrive past the two pole and showed an impressive turn of foot to run down some more speedily bred rivals, and he won with a bit in hand. It wasn’t a great maiden by any means, but a few in behind had already run to marks in the 70’s.
The handicapper gave him a mark of 78, and although that seemed only fair to start with, in hindsight what an absolute good thing he would have been off that mark! Instead connections decided to try their luck ten days after his debut, in the Group Two Champange Stakes at Doncaster. He was an unconsidered 50/1 shot in the field of six, but he ran a stormer and would have been third in another stride, and second in another fifty yards. The winner Saamid is highly thought of and had already hosed up in a Newmarket maiden, whilst Approve was a Royal Ascot winner (albeit over 5f) and Waiters Dream had a rating of 106. He again showed a very willing attitude and he has a lovely way of racing, head down and really trying.
Unsurprisingly the handicapper reacted, to the tune of raising his mark by 31lb to 109. On his final start he contested the Racing Post Trophy, in which he was still ignored in the market, going off at 40/1. He got a bit of a bump shortly after the start, which knocked him off stride for a moment, but he was soon travelling well in the pack. When the pace quickened after three out, he was caught a little flat footed and was then slightly impeded again when the eventual third Master Of Hounds came across him. That probably cost him a length and a bit of momentum, and he crossed the line in sixth place, a respectable seven lengths behind the winner Casamento. The combination of being slightly impeded, the extra furlong and Group One company just found him out a little.
He is very well put together, and as a two year old he looked more like a sprinter than anything else. His pedigree suggests 1m2f might be within his compass in time, although I think a mile might prove to be his best trip, for this season at least.
He has a 2000 guineas entry, and I’ve had a very modest investment at average odds of around 500/1 on the exchanges. Thats probably a flight of fancy, but this likeable colt may well be underestimated again this season, given that he is a 30,000 guineas breeze up purchase from an unfashionable yard. If he is campaigned in Group One/Group Two company exclusively he will probably come up a little short, but if connections aren’t too greedy, he will hopefully be able to pick up a Listed or Group Three prize. I could be wrong and perhaps he will need further, but if he were mine I would probably be thinking in terms of the Jersey at Royal Ascot, as I think he has enough toe to win over what is a fairly stiff 7f there.

When to back: Over 7f/1m in all but the very top class (unless you can get a big three figure price for the guineas, at 300+)

MAJOR DOMO – 3 Year Old Gelding – Trainer – Harry Dunlop – OR 71

One of the lower rated runners on the list, but potentially one of the more interesting. He was a cheap purchase at just 7,500 guineas as a yearling, but that looks money well spent.
He made his debut in August over 7f in a Salisbury maiden and ran well enough to finish seventh of fourteen, albeit eleven lengths behind the winner Catalyze, although he wasn’t too far behind the fourth placed horse. A couple of winners came out of the race, and a few more went on to run well off marks in the 70’s.
His second run came over a mile at Lingfield the following month, and unusually for a race on the polytrack there, it was a fairly well run affair. After getting a little outpaced turning in, he stayed on well up the straight to finish sixth, beaten five lengths.
On his third and final start at Goodwood over 9f, three weeks later, he put in his best performance to date, in finishing third to a smart looking Mark Johnston newcomer Dordogne. He saw a lot of daylight and raced wide throughout on that occasion, and I was impressed by how well he handled the long turn into the straight that day, given how he was trapped out wide. A lot of older, more experienced horses struggle to come around there on an even keel and he mastered it with no problem at all. He couldn’t go with the first three from the two pole when they quickened away from him, but he stayed on stoutly and was almost four lengths clear of the fifth horse. Clearly the winner is potentially quite smart, but I think it usually pays to look at what a horse has beaten, rather than what it was beaten by. The sixth and seventh horses went on to win handicaps off marks of 67 & 68 respectively, so I think it’s fair to say Major Domo’s opening mark of 71 looks fair. When I asked Harry Dunlop about the horses wellbeing, he simply had this to say:

"Major Domo is very well and the plan is to start him in Mid April on turf, over 1m2f+"

I’m a big fan of trainers starting horses over a trip slightly shy of their best on their first run of the season, and I think that is the case if he starts over 1m2f. He saw out the 1m1f at Goodwood so well as a two year old, that I would think 1m4f will prove not only to be within his compass, but probably his optimum trip this season, I wouldn’t rule out him getting 1m6f!. He handled the good to firm surface well at Goodwood, but judging by his action I don’t think he would be too inconvenienced by a little cut in the ground either, and he may well encounter that in April. To summarise, I like his attitude, the fact that he looks uncomplicated, he’s on a fair enough mark and should improve for stepping up in trip. Hopefully he’ll win a handicap or two over middle distances this season.

When to back: Over 1m2f+ in handicap company avoiding extremes of going (firm/heavy)

Check out the trainers website at http://www.harrydunlopracing.com

MATULA – 3 Year Old Filly – Trainer – Ralph Beckett – OR 88

A £1 stake on every Ralph Beckett horse that ran on turf in 2007 at SP, would have netted you £125.71, in 2008 you would have lost, wait for it, a penny! In 2009 the profits returned to the tune of £64.01 and last season a profit of £84.11 would have been years, impressive stuff! (I’m sure someone will point that there was an 80/1 winner last season for the stable).
As far as I’m aware, and I could be wrong, as I’m not someone who looks very much at "stats", the Beckett stable has been the most profitable on that basis in the last four seasons. Why is this? Well for some reason, in certain quarters at least, the yards horses are often a little underestimated and often overpriced, although I do think the stable finally got more credit last year, and perhaps the years of backing the Beckett horses blindly and making a profit may be gone (not that I ever did!).
Whatever happens there is no doubt Ralph Beckett is one of the best trainers around of flat horses and his filly MATULA was a very impressive winner of a maiden on her debut at Ffos Las in September.
She was a well backed 7/2 shot on that occasion and she came from last to first down the straight, seeing plenty of daylight on the outside of the pack. Jim Crowley only had to push her out with hands and heels to gain a comfortable success from the Richard Hannon trained Strictly Rhythm. The pace was muddling and the form doesnt’ amount to a great deal, but she showed a very professional attitude, so didn’t pull or hang and it was a most taking performance.
Her only other started came in the listed Montrose Stakes at Newmarket in October, where she finished a respectable sixth of eleven, beaten just under six lengths. She was again held up before making headway around halfway. Racing on the outside of the pack again she looked like being involved in the finish until appearing to get just a little unbalanced in the dip, and weakened close home. Jim Crowley didn’t give her a hard race, and only picked up his whip a couple of times. It was clearly a much stronger affair than her maiden at Ffos Las and she acquitted herself well.
When I contacted Mr Beckett recently, he had this to say:

"She hasn’t wintered well, and is much further behind than I would like. Hence I don’t see her reappearing until early June…..at the earliest. We still think she is smart, and it’s just a question of giving her time"

I believe she still has an entry in the Prix De Diane, although given what Mr Beckett has said, that would seem an unlikely target now. That does however show the high regard she is held in and black type will, I imagine be the main objective. Therefore her rating of 88 may well prove to be irrelevant as I’m not sure we’ll see her starting off in handicap company. As far as trip is concerned, i’d think she might start off over 1m2f, and he action suggests should wouldn’t want rattling first ground. Wherever she turns up, don’t dismiss her out of hand!

When to back: Over 1m2f+ on any ground bar firm

The yards website can be found at http://www.rbeckett.com/

SEATTLE DRIVE – 3 Year Old Colt – Trainer – David Elsworth – OR 93

David Elsworth, the master trainer, the genial trainer, trainer of sprinters and stayers, hurdlers and chasers. Of course it is for Desert Orchid that he will be best remembered for, with Persian Punch not far behind. That’s not to forget, Cavvies Clown, Muse, Floyd, Lear Spear, Norse Dancer and many more, including in more recent seasons the admirable mare Barshiba. He doesn’t have quite as many horses as he once did, and pretty much ditched the jumping game a few years ago. But he does appear to have a few nice horses to go to war with in 2011, none more so than Seattle Drive.
The dam of this horse was only modest, but she has produced Snoqualmie Boy, a listed winner at Ascot, and often highly tried, including a run in the Derby. This horse made his debut in a hot looking Newmarket maiden on the July course in late August on unseasonably soft ground. He was sent off at 33/1, but he didn’t just win, he won cosily by two lengths, despite edging left and showing signs of greenness when asked for his effort. The form of that race couldn’t have worked out much better. The next four home all came out and won, Fulgur who finished second won a Newbury maiden, the third Double Dealer won a fair handicap at Goodwood. The fourth Marden easily took a Leicester maiden and fifth Utley won a Yarmouth maiden before running with credit in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf.
His second start came in the Haynes, Hanson and Clarke conditions stakes at Newbury. Whilst this race doesn’t tend to attract some of the top juveniles as it once did, it was still a fair event, and the "right" two horses finished first and second. He pulled a little early on, but settled down when the tempo increased. He began to make a move passing halfway, but the eventual winner Moriarty got first run on him, and he couldn’t quite get back to him, eventually going down by a neck. The Richard Hannon trained winner had taken the valuable Convivial maiden at the York Ebor meeting on his previous start, and there was no disgrace in defeat.
I was a little surprised to see him appear for another conditions event at Kempton in October, a race I thought he’d win. He was beaten by another Hannon trained horse in Byrony, who had already shown some fair form on the all-weather at Kempton. I don’t think it was Dane O’Neills finest hour, the winner had been racing and winning over seven furlongs, and yet he allowed him an easy lead at the head of affairs. Seattle Drive was caught flat footed and out of his ground and couldn’t peg the winner back up the straight. Byrony was rated 3lb inferior but was in receipt of 4lb, but I know who I think will prove to be the better of the two.
With an official mark of 93, it’s not out of the question he will start off in a handicap somewhere, but everything about this horse oozes class, and he looks sure to improve as a three year old. I would expect to see him racing over 1m2f, at least for the early part of the campaign, but his breeding would suggest he will stay 1m4f. He handled the softer conditions so well at Newmarket that he may be one to catch at either end of the season, but he’s a good actioned horse who shouldn’t have any excuses on genuine good ground.

When to back: Over 1m2f+ on ground no faster than good.

TRAFFIC SISTER – 3 Year Old Filly – Trainer – Stan Moore – OR 90

This full sister to the useful and hardy Traffic Guard may only have an official mark of 90, but trainer Stan Moore has big plans, and he had this say when I asked him about about the filly

"She is a big filly with a lot of talent. We are hoping to run her in either the English or Irish Guineas and she would definitely be one to follow this year"

It wasn’t the strongest maiden in which she made her debut at Newbury over 7f. She was an unconsidered 33/1 shot in a field of eleven and showed a fair amount of promise in finishing sixth, beaten around seven lengths by Treasury Devil who won a novice event at Sandown next time out. She was nine lengths clear of the seventh placed horse that day.
The following month she contested another 7f maiden, this time on the polytrack at Lingfield. As Mr Moore quoted above, she is a big filly and she didn’t handle the bend too well that day, but once back on an even keel, she ran on again and would have finished second, granted another hundred yards.
She faced a very tough task on her third and final start in the Group One Fillies’ Mile at Ascot a couple of weeks later. She finished last of the five, beaten nine lengths, but she acquitted herself well and i’m of the opinion that she will improve the most out of any of the fillies’ in that race. She dwarfed her rivals, still looked a bit green when coming around the bend, and undoubtedly has more to offer as she develops physically and gains more experience.
Traffic Guard himself actually won his first two starts, but he improved markedly on that form at three, and again at four, and given his sister’s physical prescence I would expect her to do the same. I’m not suggesting she is a likely contender for either guineas and it may be that she wll need a little further than a mile to be seen at her best. She is definitely an exciting prospect for her capable trainer this term and I think there is a fair chance of her popping up somewhere in a group/listed event for fillies, at a big price against some more fashionable rivals.

When to back: Over 1m+ on any ground except firm.

The trainers website can be viewed at http://www.stanmooreracing.co.uk/

[GDC]

Nice read I do not have the time to list the reasons but i will however list my top ten for 2011 that i personally will be watching closely:

CARLTON HOUSE – My horse for the Derby as i follow Mr Stoute, if this one runs in the Dante you KNOW he is the yards Derby prospect. Ran extremely well when green on debut but showed all his class when winning with consumate ease 2nd time out.

ATRAAF – From one of my favourite trainers to follow, Marcus Tregoning, this one made a very eye catching debut (backed from 5s into 7/2) and looked impressive despite missing the kick at the start. Marcus did not have a good season again so it could be a tip in itself that this son of Intikhab was his only juvenile winner FTO!

MAKE A DANCE – Not a huge Barry Hills fan as can never hit the chuckle twins right! However this lady made a cracking impression 2nd time out and i would not be shocked to see her being aimed at the 1000 gns.

MORNING CHARM – John Gosden is a master trainer indeed! This daughter of North Light won her sole maiden in a battling style and is bred to come into her own this season. The trainer/owner know her family extremely well and she is without doubt one to look out for, she could with improvement make into an Oaks filly.

SEA MOON – Beautifully bred colt who can only improve this season, won 2nd time of asking at 1/5 and even on his debut (maybe given too much to do) he went off 5/4! This could turn into a classic lad but the yard have Carlton House also so maybe the Irish option will suit better, without doubt another from Mr Stoutes yard to keep the right side of and watch what trial he sends him to.

YASEER – Again from the Marcus Tregoning yard, this lovely colt is related to the likes of Nayef, Nashwan and Unfuwain to name but three! Probably due to the yards bad season he went off 40s on his debut but belied those odds and ran well to finish 2nd to none other than Carlton House. He was then heavily backed (not a massively gambling yard) and won at 4/6 easing up and although beating nothing he could still be one to follow due to his relations. 1m will be his best trip and he is very exciting.

ALWAYS THE LADY – Clive Cox remains a very underarted trainer IMO, he does very well when given the opportunity to train a good un. Ran well on debut despite not being knocked about, finished 2nd not beaten far and then put away which is generally a sign from Mr Cox that he likes the horse.

GUNNER LINDLEY – This lad is a superb handicapper from the Barry Hills yard and i will be following very closely, what a superb battler he is, never knowing when he is beaten. Could run very well in the Lincoln if he gets in but if not maybe the big race at Newbury.

WORKFORCE – What a marvellous horse he is, maybe being led my heart and bank balance after supporting him heavily for the Derby and then Arc but he has nothing to prove and when Mr Stoute keeps one in training there is generally a very good reason for it!

WORLD DOMINATION – I have heard that this unraced lad is working very well on the gallops so i will be keeping a close eye on him.

Best of luck all

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