Mr Stacky’s System

[Matron]

BTW my last nights effort. 5 meetings in Australia, all harness racing.

Results here on this website http://www.harness.org.au/

Penrith 2nd race win div $2.2
Ararat 2nd race win div $2
Newcastle 1st race win div $1.4
Maryborough 2nd race win div $1.5
Gold Coast 5th race win div $3.5

Profit of $27.80 on a base bet of $1 via sequence of 1,2,4,8,16

[Matron]

Australian Gallops results including a loss meeting where I stopped at the 5th race in the 1,2,4,8,16 sequence. That meeting produced no fav winners.
Still ended up with a small profit at the end of the evening despite this no fav win meeting. ALl results are on this website http://www.australianracingboard.com.au/

Hawkesbury
race 1 fav div $2.5

Kensington
no fav won 7 race meeting, stopped after 5th race

Sale
1st race win fav div $3.4

Bendigo
3rd race win fav div $4.8

Ipswich
3rd race win fav div $2.8

Eagle Farm
5th race win fav div $2.5

Rockhampton
1st race win fav div $2.6

Launceston
2nd race win fav div $2.9

total profit from $1 base bets $5.41 despite a no win meeting.

[Matron]

Mr Stacky,

I have started a new thread for your system.

Welcome to "TRF".

Regards – Matron

[MrStacky]

Thanks for that Matron, I was thinking I should start a new thread so I didnt hijack Seagulls. Have to say that having read through a lot of the threads on here lots of the warnings and other experiences have helped me fine tune what Im doing. Only time will tell how this works, the pessimist in me suspects it will eventually fall over but right now its going quite well.

[MrStacky]

Recap…..

Ive been fiddling about with betting systems for a wee while now and just when I think I have it cracked I find something trips me up.

Online betting has proven a boost to getting closer to having a system which is workable. Im in New Zealand and my local bookie is this website http://www.tab.co.nz/racing/ which runs multiple meetings per day. It also covers Australian, South African and some British meetings.

So here is my latest version.

Firstly I am using the Martingale sequence however I have noted peoples thoughts and seen its failings so I have a couple of stop triggers in place.
I also dont use 1,1,2,4,8,16 etc I have dumped a 1 and use 1,2,4,8,16 etc.

I use a spreadsheet with various fomula in place which let me know how much I am winning or losing as I go through a sequence. With the online betting I use I am able to wait till the last seconds before placing a bet ensuring I do stick to a fav.

I stop betting on a race meeting the moment a selection wins. If its the first race of a meeting and the payout is meagre I still stop and move on to the next meeting. The danger is that I may have already picked the only fav to win at that meeting.

I have found that this works better with the gallops rather than harness racing. Harness racing seems to run less horses and fav dividends are less generally. Sometimes if I am up to the 8 or 16 multiplier in a dividend and my horse comes in it will be paying too low a dividend for me to make a profit from that sequence. I havent had this show up with the gallops so far.

The thing I have found when things go wrong is that I havent followed my own set of rules, for example I might start betting on a meeting a couple of races in to its running or I jump to another meeting with my sequence.

I started this 3 months ago with a real account but started with a balance of $50 (nz) I use $1 bets as my base. I did get it up to $275 and then had a horror sequence which dropped me right down to less then 60. However the loss in this sequence came when i fell asleep and the horse I had marked for the next race actually won….

My balance is currently back up to $222 and the worst sequence of losses I have had was 9 races where the fav didnt come in. I stopped at 16 on that one and then won some of the losses back in the following sequence to 8.

Interestingly when i was doing all of this with an imaginary balance of $1000 I was just creaming it and doubled the imaginary balance in 20 days. Funny how the moment you go with real money it isnt as spectacular.

I would like to have a base balance of $1000 so I can extend my sequence out by 1 or 2 more numbers but at this point Im still not convinced that in the long run this will actually work. If I end up feeling more confident later I will give it a go.

I have researched the fav winning percentages with the race meetings I follow down here and in 2 years of race results have only found a couple of meetings where at least 1 fav hasnt come in.

These websites have the results and fav indicators for the meetings I follow, the results there do give me some encouragement. If you go through the results listed its rare you find a meeting with no fav winners and the stop trigger can lessen the impact of these.

http://www.hrnz.co.nz/
http://www.harness.org.au/

Having a stop trigger has helped and trying to be disciplined about what I do is also important. The returns per race meeting generally arent that big however I do see steady small growth as it goes.

I have no knowledge of horses or betting and Im only following a slightly muddled statistical approach. I suspect if I had deep knowledge of horse racing combined with the stats approach I could do better. I think an understanding of why horses do better ( race conditions, form, jockeys, venue factors etc) is pretty important to success and its an area I will have to research some more.

Cheers

[MrStacky]

Friday 21st
Rotorua
1,2,4,8,16 loss. stop trigger on 16 multiplier, restart
1.2 Fav win $4.4 Div

Taree
1,2 fav win div $3

Townsville
1,2 fav win div 2.1

Friday total loss of $21

Saturday 22nd
Murrubidgee
1,2 fav win div $2.1

Parkes
1,2,4 fav win div $4

Randwicke
1,2,4,8,16 fav win div $2.7

Illawarra
1 fav win div $2.1

Crandourne
1 fav win div $2.4

moonee valley
1 fav win div $1.2

Gympie
1,2 fav win div $3

Townsville
1 fav win div $2.7

Warwick
1,2 fav win div 2.5

Longreach
1,2,4,8,16 fav win div $3

Toowoomba
1,2 fav win div $2.4

Doomben
1 fav win div $3

Ellerslie
1,2 fav win div $3.7

Taranaki
1,2,4 fav win div $3.8

Newcastle
1,2 fav win div $1.5

Gloucester
1 fav win div $1.3

Globe Derby
1,2 fav win div $2

Ballarat
1 fav win div $2

Albion Park
1 fav win div $3.4

Dubbo
1 fav win div $2.8

Total profit Sat $73.70

Also I had a good Thursday as well but hadnt recorded the results. made $39 that night which also included a 5 race loss sequence where the restart trigger kicked in.

[MrStacky]

Ive been away with work for the last week but have still been able to get some bets on. Im away all this week and wont be able to get any bets on.

Im leaving shortly so havent got time to document what have done in the last week however my balance now sits at NZ $355 despite having a 9 race run where no favourites won. I stopped at 1,2,4,8,16 restarted and when I hit the 16 multiplier got lucky with a nice $5.1 dividend which enabled me to win back all the losses in the sequence plus a tidy $19.20 profit on that sequence.

Using the spreadsheet as I go is allowing me to adjust my bet multiplier depending on how clear a favourite I have. For example instead of using the 8 or 16 multiplier when I have a field with 3 horses all around the $4 or $4.5 dividend I may drop to a 6 or 10 multiplier to ease back ay losses if the favourite doesnt come in. Lets just say I tend to be more cautious the longer I go at this. Im happy to take consistent small gains.

I do feel this is working quite well, maybe I can get it to my target $1000 by xmas.

[MrStacky]

Ok ultimately this system doesnt work. I had been reading around various forums and despite the fact I was doing well with it I took some advice and spent a long weekend inputting a years worth of results into a spreadsheet from the official racing websites down here. A years betting if I had used real money would have ended up giving me a tiny profit, too small to bother with.
Quite disappointing really given that I really thought I had cracked it. The good news is I have worked this out while I was still in profit with my real account and so Im going to stop this while Im ahead.

However I did take all the data I had popped into a spreadsheet and applied Seagulls method to it and that worked. It worked for the gallops but not harness racing. Down here the dividends for harness racing are too low for it to be worthwhile.

The only problem for me is that to make Seagulls method work for me I would need to have a "bank" large enough to handle a loss or two and I dont right now have that sort of spare money. Maybe when I have a little more spare cash I will try.

[MrStacky]

Ha, so Im still mucking with this, partly because I started out with $50 and if it all falls over I wont have lost much and partly because its fun trying to beat the "system".

One major issue is the fact that I have no real horse racing knowledge and thats probably why the whole probability approach has appealed but over the last 2 months I have started to learn little bits here and there and now those bits of knowledge are having an impact on my decision making.

Blindly following favourites clearly to all of you who have been in the game for ages is a bit naive and Im seeing that for myself now. Im one of those people who accepts peoples advice, know they are probably right but still sometimes need to find things out for myself.

I have a question, again one of those ones where I semi know the answer but havent convinced myself yet…

What is it about Stop at win systems which is so bad?.

SAW systems seem to be regarded as foolish on pretty much all the forums and I havent quite worked out what it is that is wrong here.

BTW, the Favourites Phenomenom system thats out there appears to me to be close to what I have been doing in many respects.

[MrStacky]

Ok for those interested I have carried on with what I am doing and have now got a blog running documenting my efforts. It will include screen shots of my account and bets from time to time.

You can find it here

http://oi-what-the-heck.blogspot.com/

[MrStacky]

Well 5 months on and after a few refinements what I am doing is working. Not big scale stuff but I win consistently. In the last 50 days of betting I have had 2 loss days both of which i recovered the losses within 5 days.

http://oi-what-the-heck.blogspot.com/

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