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A feast of 2YO races this weekend and a competitive, quality, renewal of the Middle Park Stakes.
As I said previously, I decided to go with Sands Of Mali here, because the trainer thinks a lot of him and the horse has already improved sharply this season. He may have the most scope here.
He beat Invincible Army in the Gimcrack and even though that horse met defeat in the Mill Reef, he ran a solid race and James Garfield is no slouch. For all that, Sands Of Mali pretty much thumped the runner up in the Gimcrack and has arguably more improvement in him.
Unfortunately also has solid form, with Havana Grey an excellent yardstick who put in another excellent shift when runner up to speedy filly Heartache in the Flying Childers, only giving best to the Queen Mary winner late in the day. The Prix Morny win has given Unfortunately a narrow lead in the ratings for this race and Karl Burke’s colt is vying for favouritism in a three way go along with Aidan’s Sioux Nation.
Sioux Nation took a while to break his duck and his maiden race has been awful, however, he struck gold at Royal Ascot over 5F and clearly has speed. He won the Phoenix Park from Beckford by half a length and the Jessica Harrington horse is set to re-oppose here. Dangerous to rule out anything from O’Brien’s team but I fancy Sioux Nation less than the other two at the head of affairs, as a Scat Daddy with six runs already under his belt.
Beckford got bogged down in the mud last time, as Verbal Dexterity galloped on strongly in the heavy conditions that saw some of the leading contenders pulled out at the meeting. He had previously looked to be going places and it would be folly to rule him out on better ground. He had previously beaten Verbal Dexterity in the Railway Stakes and some punters clearly don’t realise what a huge difference a change of surface makes in horse racing. A Group 2 winner and second in two Group 1’s, it says a lot for the quality that Beckford is only 4th best at 6/1 here.
US Navy Flag took some time to establish himself but he buzzed home by 6 lengths in a Group 3 last time. He was previously behind Sioux Nation and Beckford though and there is no big reason to suggest he can better those two here. The bigger worry is that the Round Tower Stakes he won has taken a right good kicking since and with 8 runs already this season, I will readily pass on US Navy Flag here. He’s a major lay for me here at 6/1 and I believe he will start at double those odds.
Of the others, Coventry winner Rajasinghe and Mark Johnston’s Cardsharp may already have had their moments in the sun and I would be surprised if any of the others popped up.
Richard Fahey says that Sands Of Mali is not necessarily just a sprinter and feels that he’s just a very talented colt. I popped a couple of quid on him for the Guineas at 50/1 for the crack and more than that on him for the Commonwealth Cup, should he be a Sprinter. He is 16/1 for the Commonwealth Cup and I reckon that’s much better than Sioux Nation for the same race at 8/1. I think they are getting carried away with the O’Brien horse being by the same sire as Caravaggio and Sioux Nation is nowhere near that sort of profile. Defeat for Sioux Nation on Saturday will surely see him a drifter in that market.
Sands Of Mali for me based on an excellent performance in the Gimcrack. Unfortunately is the one I fear most and he must be respected as a fast horse.
Sands Of Mali 4/1 is the bet.1. Sands Of Mali
2. Unfortunately
3. BeckfordLay US Navy Flag
Good luck.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Feeling optimistic about the two year old races for once
looking forward to seeing herculean in the royal lodge as feel his long stride could be too much for all of them
Feeling optimistic about the two year old races for once
looking forward to seeing herculean in the royal lodge as feel his long stride could be too much for all of them
I am surprised Herculean is in the betting for the Royal Lodge. Charlton said at the end of last week that the colt will NOT run in the Royal Lodge. Instead, he is intended for the Novice Stakes race at Haydock. The ground at Haydock is soft/heavy at the moment and that may be a factor but the trainer stated that they are keeping it low key for now with Herculean despite numerous fancy entries.
I can’t see him going back on that thinking. If they do, it would be foolishness pitching him in after stating that he is a big/inexperienced colt for next season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d be all over Hey Jonesy in this, thought he looked different gravy last time out and was just killed by the draw.
Without really knowing who’ll O’Brien will declare I thought Rajasinghe was a bit of value at 8/1. I gather he’s being geared up for it and he’s still a relatively unexposed Coventry winner.
Like Judge, I also like Hey Jonesy but he’s got a fair bit to find at the ratings and I’m not sure this is an ideal bit of placing by connections.
Without really knowing who’ll O’Brien will declare I thought Rajasinghe was a bit of value at 8/1. I gather he’s being geared up for it and he’s still a relatively unexposed Coventry winner.
Like Judge, I also like Hey Jonesy but he’s got a fair bit to find at the ratings and I’m not sure this is an ideal bit of placing by connections.
The sales race Hey Jonesy was third in has thrown up zero winners from 17 subsequent runs. That’s a big negative for me and this race is way tougher class with Group winners dotted around it. This looks ambitious to me with a 103 rated colt facing Unfortunately who is a stone higher on 117.
Fair enough, Unfortunately has run six times to Hey Jonesy’s three and you could argue he has more room to improve. Countering that Sands Of Mali is only 1 lb behind Unfortunately and he has had only three starts, giving him ample scope.
Sands Of Mali is the sharpest improver in the field after recording a RPR of 64 on debut before winning to earn an upgrade to 88 and then a big jump again to 115 in the Gimcrack. After leaps of 24 lbs and 27 lbs the last twice Sands Of Mali is partially hamstrung now purely because of the ceiling on a rating a 2YO horse can achieve. If he improves again on Saturday it is likely that 6 lbs or so would be the maximum.
Timeform have Verbal Dexterity the top 2YO this season on 122p and I am a bit dubious of that figure, given how soft it was when he thumped Beckford. Any more than 122 is going to take Bolger’s colt into Frankel territory, with The Legend rated 126 at the end of his 2YO season. The notion seems fanciful to me and with Verbal Dexterity five pounds ahead of Expert Eye on Timeform figures and with the same p suffix, I assume fans must be all over the Bolger horse for the 2000 Guineas at a full ten points higher than the favourite on 14/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve: you’re analysis of Hey Jonesy is pretty much in keeping with what is going through my mind and keeping me off backing him.
As for Sands Of Mali, do you not think you should be taking some of the 16/1 around for next year’s Commonwealth Cup? If he wins well on Saturday then surely Fahey has the new ante-post favourite for that on his hands?
Reckon Elarqam is something of a banker in the Somerville Tatersalls tomorrow- looks like real imposing type. Seemed a bit fat as well on the video so could be plenty of improvement to come.
Steve: you’re analysis of Hey Jonesy is pretty much in keeping with what is going through my mind and keeping me off backing him.
As for Sands Of Mali, do you not think you should be taking some of the 16/1 around for next year’s Commonwealth Cup? If he wins well on Saturday then surely Fahey has the new ante-post favourite for that on his hands?
I have backed him for the Commonwealth Cup Charles, and a small bet for the Guineas at 50/1. It’s written somewhere on the site, can’t recall where. I think Sioux Nation is a silly price at 8/1 for the Commonwealth Cup. He may share Caravaggio’s sire but the similarity ends there is terms of the races won and the profile.
Fahey hinted that he thinks that Sands Of Mali is, like Ribchester, not necessarily a pure Sprinter. I have seen similarities in the two horses for a while now and while it may not necessarily turn out that this year’s Gimcrack horse will match the previous runner-up, there was enough to make me buy into the idea he could ultimately be nearly as good in time.
To summarise my 2YO selections this weekend from across the forum:-
Rockfel Nyaleti 3/1
Royal Lodge Nelson 10/3 doubled with Prix Marcel Boussac Polydream 7/4
Prix Marcel Boussac Efadaah 20/1 Prix Jean Luc Lagardere Olmedo 8/1 singles and small double
Middle Park Sands Of Mali 4/1
Cheveley Park Different League 8/1Good luck everyone this weekend.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Reckon Elarqam is something of a banker in the Somerville Tatersalls tomorrow- looks like real imposing type. Seemed a bit fat as well on the video so could be plenty of improvement to come.
I’ve just had a small double on Elarqam at 15/8, with Ghaiyyath at 13/8 in the opener.
I tried to look against Elarqam but couldn’t go against him in the end and I priced him at 6/4 here.
Ghaiyyath was disappointing on debut. I never backed him or tipped him that day, just observed that he was well bred and expensive with big entries. He was beaten a fair way that day but with that experience behind him and a hood fitted, I reckon he could well be a totally different proposition today. It’s a bit of a D-Day for his potential career.
Midi could be anything but with some rain getting into the ground now, I feel the Godolphin horse may just gallop away from them today.
2.00 Newmarket Ghaiyyath 13/8
3.45 Newmarket Elarqam 15/8Soapy Bubble.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
2.00 Newmarket Ghaiyyath 13/8
3.45 Newmarket Elarqam 15/8Soapy Bubble.
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£75.47 for a £10 double. Not a bad start to the meeting. Both were backed and both won cosily. Wish it was always this way.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yeah the favourite looked in trouble at one point when Tangled made his run but picked up well. Looked a bit laboured but they all count.
Shows the advantage of backing ante-post- I’m sure that was bigger earlier in the week- but starting price was incredibly skinny.
Anyway well done Steve
Unfortunately should be clear favourite, in my opinion. My only slight concern with him is the stiffer 6 furlongs than he thrived on in France, but he will love the ground (assuming it’s anywhere between good and good to soft), he’s already a very impressive G1 winner and this has been his plan for a while.
Unfortunately should be clear favourite, in my opinion. My only slight concern with him is the stiffer 6 furlongs than he thrived on in France, but he will love the ground (assuming it’s anywhere between good and good to soft), he’s already a very impressive G1 winner and this has been his plan for a while.
I would rather back him than most of the others but Hey Jonesy is confusing me.
I have come down on side of Lightening quick today in the Rockfel. Just think the way she finished so strongly bodes well for the stiff finish at Newmarket. Gavota I was tempted by but she’s clearly been beating weak horses. Maybe that’s the case for the Lyons horse as well but nothing in her maiden has come out since so the jury is still out.
In the Middle park i’ve gone for Beckford. Looking at the make up of the race, you’ve clearly got a lot of horses that like to be ridden prominently. They might set it up for this strong closer. I do respect Steve “the master” caution’s sand’s of mali though- the way he finished his race off at York was ominous in regards to this. Could do a ginger tipster style saver on him, but I’m hoping beckford can show a burst of speed over this six that he wasn’t able to do over seven last time.
Herculean in the Royal Lodge and Clemmie in the middle park complete the Judge’s portfolio
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