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I think Dunaden and Illo and certainly throw in an English horse there too,Niwot the oz horse won very well yesterday prob the best of the aussies,but not sure if he can run the first 4,but is a decent chance
Cumani thinks Dunaden is the one to beat; says it all depends which side of bed Drunken Sailor gets up out of on the day; I like horses like that! Seems to have a high TS as well, which surprises me. I may let my head rule and back Moyenne Corniche as he owes me nothing after the Ebor.
I enjoy this spectacle and like a bet on it as I lie on the sofa half-dead at 4am!
I’m gonna plump for At First Sight who has useful UK form and seems to be improving and Tullamore who is also running into form. Both at the right end of the weights.
Americain won’t win this year with so much on his back.
I was gonna back Modun as I like that horse but Matt Chapman shouts through the telly that it won’t stay…so I’d better not back it then.
Good luck all!
Zip
"Americain won’t win this year with so much on his back."
Maybe you’re right, but I’ve always had a feeling that he’s a better horse than Vintage Crop.
As for Modun not being a stayer, it’s generally held, I believe, that in terms of staying, it’s more a race for a mile and a half horse, and Modun didn’t run too badly against Moyenne Corniche. Also, he’s bred to stay.
What’s more I wouldn’t underestimate Stoutie’s knowledge of his horses’ abilities, or most trainers’ for that matter. Unless they themselves express uncertainty, as they sometimes do, if they’re happy their horse will stay, it’s good enough for me. But time will tell.
HGM
Don’t be fooled into thinking the Melbourne Cup is an "out and out stayer’s"
race – it isn’t, as such as Yeats and Scorpion have proven in the past. In British terms it’s a stop/start race around a tight track, on turf several degrees faster than our own going descriptions, and favours far more the 12/14f horse from these quarters.
Modun may have run well in the Ebor and beaten listed types at Kempton, but he’s bred to be a Cup horse, races like one, and unlikely to have the speed for this. Imo, of course.Jollyp
Where does Americain stand in relation to last year’s weight (if you have that information yet)?My hope is that he improves yet again for the trip and no matter how you cut it it’s 2 miles, a 2 miles that changed So You Think from Aussie superstar to not so super.
I must admit I fancied Modun the minute I knew he was entered and haven’t read through the form as most of it would mean very little to me. Just looking at the racecard as published by the racing post it would appear that only 2 horses out of the entire field have won at the trip.
I see that as a plus to Modun who will at least see the trip out.
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The very fact that 10f specialist So You Think placed in this gives the clue to the race’s nature.
Matt Chapman is talking out of his butt, btw. Modun will stay – 3 times round.HGM
Don’t be fooled into thinking the Melbourne Cup is an "out and out stayer’s"
race – it isn’t, as such as Yeats and Scorpion have proven in the past. In British terms it’s a stop/start race around a tight track, on turf several degrees faster than our own going descriptions, and favours far more the 12/14f horse from these quarters.
Modun may have run well in the Ebor and beaten listed types at Kempton, but he’s bred to be a Cup horse, races like one, and unlikely to have the speed for this. Imo, of course.Jollyp
Where does Americain stand in relation to last year’s weight (if you have that information yet)?My hope is that he improves yet again for the trip and no matter how you cut it it’s 2 miles, a 2 miles that changed So You Think from Aussie superstar to not so super.
I must admit I fancied Modun the minute I knew he was entered and haven’t read through the form as most of it would mean very little to me. Just looking at the racecard as published by the racing post it would appear that only 2 horses out of the entire field have won at the trip.
I see that as a plus to Modun who will at least see the trip out.
I agree about Modun. Is it right that it’s now with Godolphin ? I see that as a plus considering the season Stoute has had. Might result in short-term improvement
well iv only got small stakes on tullamore illo and lost in the moment and keep looking at lucas cranach as a bigger bet really hoping just to boost funds for breeders cup but…
is there anyway to see this on a live stream in uk? i dont have sky so cant watch attheraces / ruk but races like the breeders cup are shown live on breederscup.com was wondering if anyone knows of a live stream online.
At First Sight, Dunaden and Drunken Sailor for me. Not sure if I’m right about this but I think At First Sight was second to December Draw who was one of the favourites [although he doesn’t seem to win much, AFS]. May be tempted by the ex American horse at a big price as well. Having said that I would back whatever Godolphin run I’ll be kicking myself when they come first and second this year. I’ll be listening to it on Radio Sport 927 as usual.
NIWOT for me at 10/1 i read in racingpost he was 200/1 for race before his win at weekend i wish looked at race earlier.
Tullamore does look tempting at 25/1.
Tullamore Dew certainly does in the Hennessy at that price !
I’ll go with the Godolphin pair Modun and Lost In The Moment. Good bets @26 and @34. I think Modun will stay the distance and if he does he must have a tremendous chance of winning the Cup. I’m sure that Lost In The Moment will run a strong race as well. If he wins is another question but as long as he find a good position in the field not too far behind the pace than I can see him running very well.
If this was a 2400m race in europe who would be favourite?
Believe it that this race needs a decent quality horse with some turn of foot. It is not a stayers race in euro terms. You need a horse with stamina but which can also accelerate and is also on the rise ie not weighted heavily just yet.
I’m wondering about Dunaden? With only 54.5kg against JJ 57kg and Americain 58kg do you people think he is weighted well? Are these 3 horses of comparible ability in a euro 2400 race?
And where would Moyenne Corniche fit in to this equation? He only has 52.
Modun has 53.
Don’t worry about the barriers they hardly matter in this race in my opinion if you are weighted right and have the quality you can win from anywhere.
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If this was a 2400m race in europe who would be favourite?
Probably Modun.
Ratings in lbs (approx) which take no account of recent form in Australia.:
Jukebox Jury 117
Americain 115
Dunaden 112
Modun 112
Moyenne C. 106
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