- This topic has 81 replies, 26 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
At five years old, on what was really his third start over british chasing fences, beating an in form 169/170 rated champion chaser by a wound down 19 lengths, is master minded under rated?
No. VPU is 163/4 tops. He hasn`t the form to warrent a rating anywhere near 170.
Well, I always thought VPU was over rated on his champ chase victory last year but I think he looks to have improved in his jumps this term and has travelled really well on his last two starts on ground that suited at paces that suited (he has had everything right for him IMHO) so its possible that he may be up to around 170 (the racing post and time form both had him at 169/170 going into the race, and he looks to me to have run his race. VPUs jumping is nowhere near as good as Master Minded’s and MM appeared to be taking a length or two out of him at every jump, but compared to the rest of the champ chase challengers it wouldn’t have looked that bad.
We will see how VPU goes in the Melling Chase, if that is his target, as he has always ran like he should see out further and provided it is not a furious end to end gallop we should get a good idea of how he is.
champ chase challengers ? what champ chase challengers?
Tamarindblue whos form isn’t worth two pennies by QMCC standard if you take away his victory agaiinst Twist Magic who never stayed a yard of the trip at Ascot. The ground was deparate and it was more like a test for the Grand National than it was for a QM.
TM barely stays 2 miles and his best victories were at Aintree and Kempton. PN was of the opinion he woud be better suited by Aintree than Cheltenham.
Ther’s a huge differnece between beating a horse on the downgrade in sloppy ground at Sandown in a slow time and talking on a horse like Master Minded on a stiff tack at sandown.
Why do you think the horse drifted like a raft at Cheltenham, Paul Nicolls said he would be better with some sun on his back and finished where he did? Blatently obvious PN knew his fate before he put a foot on the racecourse.
This is not something I am making up after the race this is exactly waht I said about the horse in the Twist Magic thred before the race."What then of Twist Magic? In a fast run race at Cheltenham will he see out the trip?. Taking in mind we don’t know how foward VPU was at Sandown, where TM got the trip, his best form was on 2 sharp tracks, Kempton and Aintree, you could cite his run at Cheltenham when he was going well and fell in The Arkle, but so were MWDS and Don’t Push It.. That race hadn’t started in earnest until MWDS kiced after the 2nd last and that is a a long way from home..there is no way of telling if he would have lasted home up the hill or not.
I was quite suprised when PN said a week ago that Twist Magic is more of a summer horse and I think he was hinting Aintree is his number 1 target which fits in with any staying doubts PN may have. I would be very suprised if he won this"
So what of VPU Beaten by Kalca Mome who hasn’t won another race iis 12 outings, Beaten by a horse who barely gets the trip, beat Hluabaloo (BIG WOW) and gets well and stuffed twice by Master mInded twice.
He was never that good to start with and there is a distinct possibliity he’s on the downgrade. NO signs there that he on the upgrade I can see.
Master Minded is a terrific horse and very hard if not impossible to fault but the handiapper has lost his marbles completely.
To rate a horse higher than Denman and Kauto Star who have taken 2 years to get where they are and he’s rating MM higher after beating the same horse twice who could possible be on the downgrade?
Absolutely nuts IMO he may prove to be the best 2 mile chaser of all time bit I never saw Maoscow Flyer or Badwroth Boy or the great Dunkirk in that race. I saw a cracking 5yo chaser strutting his stuff in great style granted but he’s got along long way to go before he should be rated so highly IMO.
I have seen dozens of horses like who looked like they were unbeatable and the next thing you know something brings them back down to earth.
He looks the part..hell he came of the top turn at such a rate of knotts he looked like he would have left Istabraq standing but for Pete’s sake give the horse time to prove himself before we start talking about the greatest of all time.
Next season if we are lucky something like Tidal Bay will develop into a top class 2 milers….there are many horses will improve and will run inthe top 2 mile races…….If he trounces them all like he did VPU then we will have a Superstar on our hands…….everones a bit premature IMO.
Even got talk about running him in King George’s and he’s barely out of the novice stage………..that just wont happen not while Kauto star has 4 legs and a tail and can walk…You don’t take a Champion 2 miler and run him all over the joint without reason….only reason they will with him is if he loses his toe and that could be in 4 years from now.
Kauto Star hadn’t ‘lost his toe’ when winning over 2m, 2m4f, 3m and 3m2f last season, so why should the case be any different for Master Minded?
He stayed further over hurdles in France, is bred to get much further than 2m anyway, and travelled impeccably over a testing trip at Cheltenham (early pace, unlile the Gold Cup, was decent) – what, amongst that, says he isn’t worth trying over distance? He’s only going to meet the same mediocre opposition over the minimum trip, though I would say the ‘distinct possibility’ that Voy Por Ustedes is on the downgrade already is minimal (he just isn’t that good).
I agree that rating him above Kauto Star and Denman is daft after only one such qualifying run, but over further he might just be better.
.
The key is that he only ever does what he needs to to win, but is quite clearly capable of a good deal better – he was pulling away from Kasbah Bliss comfortably toward the line last week.
[b:2ujj442g]Why should such a horse not be considered great simply because he does what he has to to beat decent opposition, rather than trouncing his rivals a la Master Minded?
[/b:2ujj442g]
couldnt agree more
My opinion is that MM showed the potential to be a 186 horse in a couple of years. But to rate the horse so highly on the basis of just this one run is way past daft.
Winning distance doesn’t equate to rating. A hard held Harchibald would achieve a higher rating than horses routing opposition that plainly didn’t get home. They were strung out like washing this year, on ground that was no less than tacky. MM went in the ground. That doesn’t make him better than Moscow Flyer who came back time and time again and easily beat class acts on level terms. MM hasn’t beaten the likes of Azerty or Well Chief turning handstands. He’s beaten distinctly average horses. VPU isn’t great by any stretch of the imagination.
Either we are over-rating the 2milers, or under-rating the 3milers.My opinion is that MM showed the potential to be a 186 horse in a couple of years. But to rate the horse so highly on the basis of just this one run is way past daft.
Winning distance doesn’t equate to rating. A hard held Harchibald would achieve a higher rating than horses routing opposition that plainly didn’t get home. They were strung out like washing this year, on ground that was no less than tacky. MM went in the ground. That doesn’t make him better than Moscow Flyer who came back time and time again and easily beat class acts on level terms. MM hasn’t beaten the likes of Azerty or Well Chief turning handstands. He’s beaten distinctly average horses. VPU isn’t great by any stretch of the imagination.
Either we are over-rating the 2milers, or under-rating the 3milers.Eh!
Yes, winning distance does equate to rating, just ask Phil Smith. Harchibald is coaxed to win, he can not be rated higher than 3 or 4 pounds above his best run (even allowing for winning as you put it “hard held”).
I myself would rate MM at this stage the equal of Moscow Flyer, with improvement to come. It is difficult to believe Moscow, Azerty or Well beating VPU by any further than 19 lengths. The point is VPU does not have to be a good Champion Chase winner for MM to be rated so highly. MM did not just beat VPU he pulverised him.Ginge
Value Is EverythingKauto Star hadn’t ‘lost his toe’ when winning over 2m, 2m4f, 3m and 3m2f last season, so why should the case be any different for Master Minded?
He stayed further over hurdles in France, is bred to get much further than 2m anyway, and travelled impeccably over a testing trip at Cheltenham (early pace, unlile the Gold Cup, was decent) – what, amongst that, says he isn’t worth trying over distance? He’s only going to meet the same mediocre opposition over the minimum trip, though I would say the ‘distinct possibility’ that Voy Por Ustedes is on the downgrade already is minimal (he just isn’t that good).
I agree that rating him above Kauto Star and Denman is daft after only one such qualifying run, but over further he might just be better.
LGR if he wasn’t under the same ownership perhaps they would be tempted to follow Kauto Star’s example. Howvever there would be about 1 chance in 10.
The best 2 milers the, the Dunkirks of the world, don’t go chasing 2 1/2 and 3 mile titles.
You may not realise just how fast this horse is because he does it so easy
but he came of the top bend like a greyhound and won in a very fast time.When they are as fast as him they seldom stay.
He got beaten over fences in Prix Fen Dufaure over 14000 2m4 f …he couldn’t find any toe at the end of the race.
Master Minded is neither a Kauto Star or a Denman he’s right smack in the middle.
He’s gallops with the same ease as Denman but is faster but he doesn’t have the instant obe burst speed acceleration of Kauto.
Someone said Denman reminded them of Arkle. This horse is much more like him in his style of running.
He has already beaten VPU before being asked a question Ruby says go the horse picks up and increases his speed, then inceaeses it again.. and again until he hits top gear…..it’s like he changes gear every 6 strides and nothing can live with that.
That’s what it looked like that’s what the time said…. but we still have to wait and see
To run him over further he couldn’t keep that pace up for another 1/2 mile so they would need to hold him up longer do that and top gear might not come……..whay would anyone risk it especially Nicholls when he has two horses already who have the distance races covered?
If he can do what he did in his next few races come Cheltenham you will be lucky if we get better than 6 runners going to post.
People are talking about him being the best 2 mile chaser of all time and that is where he will stay, until PN and the owner think different.
IMO (and I’m probably in a minority here) it is as irrelevant to compare the ratings of 2 horses running over 2 different distances as it is to compare those of 2 horses of different eras.
People will always compare horses of different generations in the same way they compare boxers, foorballers whatever . It the only way you can put things in perspective……express a view on how good a horse actually is. If we didn’t we would all have thought VPU was a morla certainty because he had already won the QMCC which means he must be better than Master Minded…I’m of course talking before they met at Newbury.
That aside it’s a very good point to say you should not compare 2 mile and 3 mile horses.
Something I never thought about when I said his rating was nuts.
Really when you look at it that way it wouldn’t matter if they rated him at 212. All they would be saying then is he is the best 2 mile horse that ever lived.
They wouldn’t be saying he was as good as Arkle was over 3 miles just saying he was as good over 2 miles as he was at 3 miles.
Abslotutely nothing wrong with that so I stand corrected.
This is the exact reason I put the word ‘better’ in inverted commas. It was a rhetorical question.
I just think it undervalues the Gold Cup form, where Denman beat a two time KG winner and Gold Cup winner by 7 lengths, in fact one of the best horses we have seen, by saying the beating of an ordinary CC winner (however easily) is the superior form. Just my opinion.
However, I know that the two horses can’t really be compared. MM has beat nothing really, Denman won a Hennessy running away off of top weight, and a Gold Cup. How can you compare them? Denman has obviously achieved the far superior black type.Master Minded put up a scintillating performance to win the QM. However, there’s still something I don’t quite like about the horse (not personally) that I can’t quite put my finger on.
As good as his performance was, I wouldn’t read too much into the winning margin, VPU pulled a further 16L clear of Fair Along. Some fields were far too strung out at Cheltenham for my liking – how Mister McGoldrick won a usually competitive Racing Post Plate by 13L I’ll never know. The gluey ground had something to do with it.
You could say that a 5YO winning the QM is quite an impressive feat, but how many 5YOs actually take their chance in the race? The general progression of NH horses mean that 5YOs are normally second season hurdlers or novice chasers. It was great judgement by Paul Nicholls that gave him the opportunity to win the race.
We’ll see how good he is when Tidal Bay tackles him next season. I said it before and I’ll say it again, this fellow could be very, very special. His Arkle performance was only just shaded by MM QM romp and he’ll be a serious threat to all next season over both two and three miles. I’d go as far as to say that I’d love to see him take Master Minded over two, Kauto Star over two-four and Denman (and Kauto) over three.
Purely on this year’s Cheltenham performances, Tidal Bay woudn’t see which way MM went.
Bosranic,
Is your name Wylie or Johnson?
You seem very blinkered in your views on this stables horses.
Tidal Bays performance was a very good one for a novice. But he would not have beaten VPU let alone MM on that performance. Probably will improve next year to be the second best 2 miler around.
Ginge
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.