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I’m going through a bit a horrendous run at the moment and can’t hardly buy a winner (in any of the 3 sports I bet in). Some of the horses are running well and getting beat while others are running like drains. Yaddree was a case in point today (5th in Cambridgeshire but 10th today over CD in generally weaker race)
So what I want to know is how does everyone else manage when they have long losing runs – do you just bet your way out of it and hope it comes good eventually or do you take a break for a few weeks and come back fresh and with a clear head.
A part of me thinks I should take a break but then another part of me thinks that maybe tomorrow is the day that those seconds and thirds start winning.
I never bet towards the end of a racing season. Cheltenham & Aintree excluded because for me this is enjoyment, not investment.
If you’re losing now I’d give it a break and wait for the NH to gain full swing.
The other sports (assuming racing is your main book) are probably just linked to your lack of confidence.
At any other time, I’d battle through. It’s like somebody playing poker moaning about bad beats. You only get bad beats if you’re playing well. Forget about it, move on and learn from the experience.
Good luck pal.
Lee
There are formulae you can check which will indicate what sort of losing run you can expect if your strike-rate is a certain figure…. but there’s another factor isn’t there?
With every loser you back your selection process for the next event changes ever so slightly. Then when you look at your last handful of losing selections the pressure increases and you perhaps look at things a bit differently; altering your normal analysis and giving weight to factors which previously you’d never considered.
My strike-rate this season is about 14%. My approach is based on creating my own ’tissue’ and backing 1,2,3,4 horses in a race who I think are over-priced. My margin for error is fairly big so it’s rare that I back short-priced ones, or even favourites. Therefore I have to take my medicine and accept the inevitable losing run.
For me, after the July Newmarket meeting until Goodwood I had a stinking run. Probably backed about 30 consecutive losers, spread over 12-15 races I reckon. During that time I did question my approach, but I suppose I just kept looking at my ‘good wins’, thinking that my previous method had served me well.
Look at your previous bets, David. Look at your winning bets. Are there any patterns? Why did your winners win?
Don’t mess about with stakes either.
In the 3 months prior to your losing run what were you doing? Were you making money, breaking even, having fun? Look at those bets again and reassure yourself that you can back winners again.
Good luck.
I’ve had a shocking summer. The only thing I do when on a particularly horrendous run is analyse what I have done, or in most cases done wrong and try and identify the reasons why. For example, you mentioned Yaddree, was the race he ran in today really not as good a race as The Cambridgeshire, how did you come to that conclusion, and why? If you can spot a flaw in your plan then amend it and keep faith in your punting ability and judgement.
Just simply tell yourself that it was always a case of how much you were going to lose in your betting life rather than win.
And carry on….
The best way to avoild long losing runs that sap confidence is to lay rather than back. That’s exactly why I am a layer myself.
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Jump up and down, rant about how racing is crooked, complain about the poor rides your bets were given and swear that you’ll never back horses again, only to start again within the hour.
Well, that’s how things work in my local shop anyway
I would take a break for a couple of days, try not to dwell on recent losses, drop your stakes a little (minimise the effect of losing bets until such time as your confidence and a sensible strike-rate are restored) and ensure that you haven’t changed your approach in any respect. There can be a tendency, when you’re on a losing run, to chase long-priced winners in the hope of recouping your losses. Conversely, you may sub-consciously tend toward favourites in the hope of almost making a winner more likely.
Just keep it simple and keep it cheap (if your first instinct is that you could have won more betting to normal stakes now that you’ve re-found your groove, I’d stop betting for an extended period).
I don’t think you need a break David, what you need is a rethink.
Trying to find winners consistantly in the type races you mention is near impossible,
I would try and be much morse selective and up your stakes but bet less.
EG Today I will have a single win bet on New Approach 6/4 after reading Bolger said the horse has been settling well at home. I have also doubled him with Kalahari King at 4/5.
Should the luck be in and New Approach wins it gives me a huge price advantage. To my way of thinking if Kalahari King then wins I have secured 7/2 about him doing so.
To me there is more value doing that, than trying to beat the booie in these crazy everyday handicaps.
Good luck hope your luck changes
- Total Posts 17716
Your first mistake, buying a winner?
Your second mistake, betting on horse’s towards the end of the season as they are probally at the end of the trainers targets and have reached their mark for season and more then likley going in their coat. Remember its a long season for the horse’s let alone us punters, they can lose enthusiasum and feel the stress of the season in their bodies so its best you just keep your dosh for the jumps.
Old, but nevertheless sound advice. Never chase losses. If you do, it is born out of desperation.
Never bet beyond your means. Simple, but again, common sense.
In keeping with my temperament, I like to win consistently – and for that reason tend to concentrate on the better class horse (invariably at the short end of the market ) and adjust my stakes accordingly. I am very selective in that respect. I never back outsiders just for the hell of it or in the hope of having a huge return. More often than not, those selections tend to lose.
Remember also that we are not compelled to bet everyday.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Whenever I have a losing run I stop betting for a week or two. Look over my bets to see if I am doing something wrong. Despite over the years having an excellant record at Goodwood, had an awful run at the Glorious meeting. Don’t think I was doing that much wrong. Sometimes it is just a coincidence.
One thing I do find when looking back. My most common failure is not paying enough attention to trainer form (the two week record). Allowing for this in my odds compiling.
Trainer form also helps to kick out those horses who are over the top for the seasson.
If David, you do not look at trainer form, it may be a reason for the lean spell. Late season on flat – early for jumps, it is in my opinion a vital subject to look at at this time of year.
I do like to stop betting on flat racing after the Racing Post Trophy and don’t start over jumps until the Paddy Power Cheltenham meeting.
If you do not look at the form you will not know who you’d back, so there is no problem having a break.
We all go through losing runs. Hope your ends today.
Mark
Value Is EverythingSome good advice on this thread – thanks to everyone who has contributed.
Having backed Lord Shankill at 25s for the Dewhurst yesterday morning, I’m going to take a break for a couple of weeks cos nothing seems to be going right for me at all.
If you are still using the same system that has reaped reward before, stick with it.
Smaller stakes is a good idea and perhaps trying to find one winner a day rather than a few.
Personally, I think the end of season can be very profitable with the flat, esp if you find an improver who enjoys the (often) soft ground at this time.
I’d be very surprised if anyone on this forum has not had a losing streak…my longest must have been about 3/4 months! I could not back a winner on the dogs or horses, whether short or long prices – I was cursed!
Your luck will change, but don’t keep betting if it gets you down – there are other things in life to enjoy. Have you tried Babestation on Sky channel 906?
Zip
I don’t think you need a break David, what you need is a rethink.
Trying to find winners consistantly in the type races you mention is near impossible,
I would try and be much morse selective and up your stakes but bet less.
EG Today I will have a single win bet on New Approach 6/4 after reading Bolger said the horse has been settling well at home. I have also doubled him with Kalahari King at 4/5.
Should the luck be in and New Approach wins it gives me a huge price advantage. To my way of thinking if Kalahari King then wins I have secured 7/2 about him doing so.
To me there is more value doing that, than trying to beat the booie in these crazy everyday handicaps.
Good luck hope your luck changes
Well done Fist. I fancied Kalahari King today – but his price was much shorter than I envisaged.
Zip
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