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Exactly Havlin 6% and Shepperd 17% all makes sense now. That statistic for Shepperd is actually good.
The more I know the less I understand.
He rides for the Gredley’s tomorrow at Goodwood (Sweet Fantasy). And by the way, Havlin hasn’t ridden in an Epsom Classic for three full years. He was also five full years without a Classic ride (from 2013 till 2018).
The more you dig into it, the odder the explanation for making the jockey change seems to get.
Havlin just rode a peach on Sweet William
His odds have plummeted from 100/1 into 50’s for TRF Flat Jockey of the Year
get on before he wins the DerbyGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
At this rate Mr Shepherd might not be the only one losing rides, watch out Mr Shoemark.
“Havlin just rode a peach on Sweet William”
Did it make up for The Ebor Nathan? When he should have won but was outridden by Frankie
Probably not but it won’t do his confidence any harm with his current form
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Havlins performances on Manxman this season would indicate that there are no “stamina” doubts about him for the derby. The test will be of his tactical astuteness during the race and that horsemanship required on the Epsom camber in the final furlongs.
Callum just rode a winner (debutant) for the Gredley’s at 28/1 on the AW at Kempton tonight. Most likely the owner didn’t back it.
tbh I can understand the decision.
Callum is young and although he might have a better strike rate at Epsom… He does not have much experience of the big day, which imo is more important than track strike rate… Havlin probably less likely to make an error on the big day. Havlin is under-rated and does particularly well in soft ground and imo in settling horses too… And AF needs settling.That said, there were some better jockeys available at the time. Tom Marquand or dare I say – given the type of ride he might do best with – Jamie Spencer.
Value Is EverythingHavlin rode a very bad race in the Oaks a few years ago. He was on the Gosden favourite and Dettori won the race on the Gosden 2nd string.
Owners can do what they want but how is Shepherd supposed to gain experience if Gredley is going to replace him as soon as he has one with a chance in a big race?
He has enough experience of racing to justify riding a horse with a chance in the Derby, in my opinion. He is a good jockey and speaks well in interviews after races. He clearly has a brain in his head and does not appear to be someone who would let the occasion get to him.
I could understand it if he had been jocked off for a multiple Group 1 winning jockey but getting the push in favour of the Gosden second jockey looks an odd decision.
In the long run, I don’t think it will harm Shepherd’s career but I think he is unfortunate to lose the Derby ride.
“Owners can do what they want but how is Shepherd supposed to gain experience if Gredley is going to replace him as soon as he has one with a chance in a big race”?
By riding horses in Group 1’s that have less chance of winning, CAS.
Riding an outsider in The Derby has far less pressure than riding one that has a really good chance of winning.Value Is EverythingMehdaayih failed to settle after being jostled early. Can’t see what Havlin could do about it.
It was Frankie who should have won a Group 1 on her. Going too fast in front in the Nassau.
Value Is EverythingBeggy and McNamara had not ridden in many races at all in recent seasons. It didn’t stop them riding Derby winners (and an Irish Derby winner as well, in Beggy’s case).
I would be willing to bet that Shepherd is a better jockey than both of them. And he certainly has lots more recent race riding experience, including around Epsom.
As I said, owners can do what they want but the decision to replace Shepherd with someone who is not a noticeably better jockey is one of the more strange cases of jocking off I can recall.
Was never going to win but did look a little over confident in the straight, do we agree!
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