- This topic has 22 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
How come everytime an unfancied horse wins a race like the gold cup, then that particular race becomes a poor renewal. How on earth can last years gold cup winner be a poor winner when Bobs Worth and Silv Conti were both put into the race with winning chances. Synchronised suffered the the same exact labeling.
It does not happen "every time" StrawBear, but you need to consider why horses are "unfancied". Is it ground? Track? Distance? None of those three were against LW last year. Coming in to the race after a poor effort? Or was it because he either needed to show vastly improved form to win the race and/or rely on some of their rivals to run below form?
Sometimes an outsider can improve enough to be a comparitively "good winner" of the race. Often it is a bit of both, improves a bit and rivals fail to perform. Latter imo being the case with LW.
"Form" ratings (how good horses are) are given by comparing the principles performances with their previous performances (and times, but we won’t get in to that) and afterwards – subsequent runs. "Form" is not which horse won what race, ie just because a horse wins a race with a fancy title and reputation – eg Gold Cup – does not make him a better horse than a King George winner or Grade 2 winner or any other winner.
Before last year’s race there was nothing to suggest Lord Windermere, On His Own or The Giant Bolster had anywhere near the form of Silviniaco Conti or Bobs Worth’s best. Which is why they started at 20/1, 16/1 and 14/1 respectively. LW had won an RSA, but only beat Lyreen Legend 1 3/4 lengths that day. There’d been 1/2 a length between those two when 3rd and 4th, in turn beaten just 1/2 a length and a nose by Texas Jack (2nd) and Boston Bob (winner) in their previous race, the Moriarty. Moriarty winner Boston Bob looked the likely RSA winner before falling at the last. Lord Windermere seemed a fortunate RSA winner. Form with Lyreen Legend (and Boston Bob) suggested he had to make faster improvement than he was doing going in to his second chasing season to trouble the very best in a Gold Cup. Then came his 2013/14 season. Well fancied on reappearance for the Hennessey, fair 8th at Newbury followed by 7th of 9 in Lexus. Not a bad effort on form, 2 3/4 lengths behind his old rival Lyreen Legend; but a further 6 lengths behind the winner, Bobs Worth.
Lord Windermere’s prep run for Cheltenham came in the Irish Hennessey. Disappointing 6th of 7. This time much further behind Lyreen Legend, 12 lengths; with 1/2 a length and one place ahead of LL another old rival Texas Jack. Lord Windermere had 9 lengths to the winner Last Instalment. Given LW, LL or TJ’s subsequent form, there was no way Lord Windermere (the RSA or Moriarty form) could be rated that highly going in to the Gold Cup. As said, Culloty had just had his first winner in a long time. Big plus he was in better form than previously that season – and – the horse put up his best 2012/13 performance at Cheltenham; so some improvement was possible. On "form" (if both ran to their best) you might be able to expect Lord Windermere to beat Lyreen Legend by around 2 lengths, despite LL performing well 7 separated them last March. So it is evident LW showed improved form, but by how much?
What about after the Gold Cup? Lord Windermere beat On His Own a short head with 3/4 length back to The Giant Bolster, 1 length and 2 1/4 to Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth. Did SC and BW run to form? Is TGB, OHO and LW’s form really better than SC and BWs? Come to that, is Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth’s best form only 2 3/4 lengths ahead of 6th placed Lyreen Legend’s best? BW had beaten LL 8 lengths in the Lexus, when the Henderson horse was widely thought not at his very best. Silviniaco Conti’s best form was beating Cue Card 3 1/2 lengths in the King George, the pair 11 clear of the field. Silvi was only 5 in front of Lyreen Legend at Cheltenham. Is Lyreen Legend almost as good as Cue Card? The only conclusion to be made is Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth were below form in last year’s Gold Cup.
So how good was the performance of Lord Windermere?
On His Own had shown progressive form on the lead up, winning the Thyestes under a big weight. Beat Mount Benbulben (who gave the winner 7 lbs) 12 lengths, 12 – 7 = 5 so call it a 5 length beating in the Bobbyjo. Good run, but Mount Benbulben had been 16 3/4 lengths behind Silvi at Kempton under level weights. Although MB’s a poor jumper and difficult to assess from one run to the next, it’s another pointer to suggest Silviniaco Conti performed well below form at Cheltenham. OHO lost his form afterwards, but returned to his best under cheek pieces last time out when 1 1/2 lengths behind Road To Riches in this season’s Lexus. Compared to the short head suggests Road To Riches put up a better performance (and on the upgrade) than Lord Windermere’s Gold Cup. Although RTR has to prove he’s fully effective over Cheltenham’s course and distance.Then there’s the much criticised The Giant Bolster. His record isn’t very good anywhere else, but is fairly consistent at his beloved Cheltenham. In the circumstances wasn’t a bad 14 1/2 lengths 5th to Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair. However, even taking TGB’s best Cheltenham form in to account can not be rated that highly. Won Argento on Gold Cup prep by 7 lengths, but the third Harry Topper a further head back in third gave 10 lbs. So despite the sizable winning distance it’s Harry Topper who comes out the best horse at the weights. The Giant Bolster was beaten 15 3/4 lengths by Bobs Worth in the 2012 Gold Cup and 2 1/4 by Synchronised in 2011; compared to 1 length by Lord Windermere. It’s unlikely TGB has shown much (if any) improvement since and Jim’s Gold Cuo winner can imo be rated below Jonjo’s, who was another substandard winner where form hasn’t worked out.
It may be unpalatable for those who’ve backed or enjoyed the race/racehorse to think of any as a comparitively "poor" quality winner. But the only way we can have "good" or "outstanding" winners of the Gold Cup is to rate some as average and some as substandard.
The Gold Cup was Lord Windermere’s best performance to date and if Culloty can come back to form it’s not inconcievable further improvement might be forthcoming at his favourite course. It was after all, only LW’s second season chasing when winning. At this stage, Silvinico Conti apart – the 2015 Gold Cup doesn’t exactly look a great race either. However, as it stands – imo Lord Windermere can not be rated anything other than a comparitively poor Gold Cup winner.
Value Is EverythingThats a cracking post Ginger, and i admire the way you study the form book. TBH as an end of season championship race the gold cup should be run over 3 miles, BUT, it is not. Sadly, too many horses are geared around one week in march racing on the probability of good ground. It’s an idiosyncratic trip and course where the horses are primed for one run. I personally have more respect for horses that have won big races with big weights ie Master Oats, Syncronised and Denman. Winning loads of grade 1 races where lots of the field are running unfit for place money, and thus just increasing its BHA handicap mark does’nt do it for me. The gold cup is all about guts, not winning a king george against a field of 2 1/2 milers.
Some excellent reading among the responses, there really is a superb depth of knowledge on this site.
Interesting comments on this horse on The Yawning Line today, where incidentally one of the ‘old guard’ Alice Plunkett guested, and eclipsed the other studio presenters on the bit.
Back to Lord Windamere – Jim Magrath tipped him up as the value, which is fair enough. However Rishi Persad weighed in with the shut-eyed one, gushing that he simply "loved" the way Jim Cullotty had campaigned Lord Windamere this season.
Obviously nobody challenged him on this rather odd comment (absolutely ludicrous comment is more accurate in my eyes). It really should have been nice to hear Persads substantiation for making this comment, given his ‘campaign’ has to date consisted of being banjoed in both runs he has had.
I suspect Big Mac may have pounced in Hyena-like fashion.
But like Strawbear has pointed out he beat Bobs Worth and Silvinaco Conti. To my untrained eye the races in Ireland are not a start to finish gallop at a quick clip. Lord Windermere at Cheltenham was looking close to being tailed off in the early stages in the Gold Cup so it’s likely they were tanking along and he had more in reserve at the end of the race. His previous win was also at Cheltenham in the RSA so it could be a case of the course and the way the races are run that suit him.
Watch the race again Nathan. Last year’s Gold Cup was far from a "start to finish gallop at a quick clip". No "tanking along", in fact the early stages were (considering the going) slow by Gold Cup standards. Lord Windermere races on and off the bridle no matter what the pace. Certainly wasn’t advantaged by being out the back, short-head runner-up On His Own made most of the running. Although you’re right – like The Giant Bolster – Lord Windermere appears to need the undulations/idiosyncratic track to keep him interested. Would not surprise me to see some sort of headgear used before long.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.