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Mordin expresses his Hardy stamina doubts on his website in the November UK report NWRA.
Mordin expresses his Hardy stamina doubts on his website in the November UK report NWRA.
Thanks! (and thanks to those who replied about 2milers who have become staying hurdlers, it seems its not impossible).
It baffles me why they havent even tried BJK over a shorter distance. why not just give it a go? Wasnt the Bula a perfect opportunity to at least get a rough idea of how he would perform? Or the Christmas hurdle?
It’s funny Mike…I read things different to you when it comes to BJK. Can’t entertain him. He’s been found out at the very top level over three miles and I think he’s over-hyped. I am firmly in the Hardy Eustace camp.
What has he achieved out of novice company – certainly not championship level form. And his novice form , although visually impressive, wasn’t that strong ; he looked to have been beating up on mainly ‘chasing types or only useful hurdlers.I certainly agree with you that he’s be over-hyped – as well as overrated.
As for him trying 2 miles, I’m sure he would now be running over that distance if those connected with him thought that he had the speed for the trip.
And, for what it’s worth, Special Envoy’s last run at Newbury makes him a huge danger to BJK , imho, and , at the predicted prices, I’d rather be on SE.
Hardy, though, will beat them all if he’s just as good over this longer trip, imho, as he is over shorter. I’m not sure that I’d get too involved a win-only bet in the hope that he is, though.
Special Envoy and Hardy in exactas for me , with maybe adding Kasbah Bliss to the mix in a small way.
I have two questions regarding Hardy Eustace, and would be grateful for any help or insight.
The first is: has any former Champion Hurdle winner ever, once they’ve got a little too old and lost some speed, been successfully reinvented as a staying hurlder (and been competitive at the highest level?).
They tend no to go hurdling they go chasing Chasing as the prize money is better and of course there’s the old prestige that foes with it.
Can instantly name Bula, Dawn Run and Night Nurse who would have most definitely have won top class hurdles over 3m. They will, already, have schooled Hardy over fences and perhaps he never took to them like others do……..hence he’s sticking to hurdles……pretty sure he will stay certainly looks the type and won’t fail for lack of toughness. Not near the best CH we have seen but a very very good horse nonetheless………….I would think everyone with a decent 3 mile hurdler will be wondering if he will be as good at this trip as he was at 2m…….Chances are he will, as not many champion hurdlers wouldn’t get 2m4f in there prime. They reckon you don’t get 2m.3f+ your chances of winning a champion is very remote…..takes some getting does the CH 2m trip.
Danoli, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace all won the RSA over 2m 5f during their novice year. They went on to be among the most popular 2m hurdlers of the past 20 years in their senior campaigns.
Bearing in mind the quality of those novice fields compared to what BJK beat over 3m in the Brit and it’s not asking much more for him to revert to 2m.
I personally don’t think he’d quite have the speed and may end up being unfortunate in that he specialises in-between championship distances but it’s surely worth a try – especially given the current challengers.
Lee
For all that he may not have proved to be the superstar many thought he would, Black Jack Ketchum still has the best staying hurdle form in this line up (he was 9l in front if Inglis Drever at Aintree) and has his ideal ground.
Personally I’ll be leaving this race well alone…
Does anyone else think that bar the staying chasers we have at the moment all other divisions really are struggling.. In particular 2m hurdles division and novice chasing really needs a star quickly… Tidal bay is about the best i’ve seen and he’s favourite for both the Arkle and Sun Alliance which says it all… I think however due to this there is some value in the AP markets and I have had a little tickle on Perce Rock for the Arkle.
Hardy Eustace is a battler and seems to have a liking for Ascot. However, this seems an ideal opprotunity for Black Jack Ketchum to prove his doubters wrong. The ground is in his favour, and if AP can put him to sleep early on and produce him at the right time, then he can take this race. Hopefully AP will have the sense not to get involved in a close-in battle with Hardy as this will only play into the Irish horse’s hands.
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Re: Champion Hurdlers reinvented as stayers, I’d add Gaye Brief who was second in a Long Walk and 4th in two Stayers’ Hurdles when past his prime.
Although nobody has mentioned him, I think a dark horse lurking near the bottom, Sonnyanjoe, has good ew possibilties here.
Mike.Too many ifs and buts for me!!
I`m not at all convinced HARDY EUSTACE will get the trip so i might lay him for a place if he remains so short when the liquidity arrives,i can`t understand why people are questioning the staying powers of BJK, i would be more inclined to question his resolution despite him being 9 from 12,you need more at this level,i was very disappointed with CHIEF DAN GEORGE last time despite him being a notoriously slow starter to the season,whilst i expect better on this occassion i think he has a bit to prove now,SPECIAL ENVOY should be in the 3 but i dont see him as the winner,KASBAH BLISS might not be so inconvenienced by the ground as some might think,however,he`s got a bit to prove and his jockey Christoph Pieux is going downhill faster than Richard Johnson,i saw him ride one at Pau on Wednesday and i actually thought he had fallen asleep in the saddle or was considering what he would buy the kids for Xmas because he never put the horse into the race, so “gun to head“ i`ll take OSCAR PARK has he`s an improver and i though he was travelling quite strongly when he fell LTO,going might not be optimum but we wont know until he`s tried it!!
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I couldn’t really have it that BJK won’t stay, he certainly stayed 3m+ as a novice, and horses don’t generally lose stamina as they get older.
Imo, he was caught by surprise in a steadily run race at Wetherby, and was nearly done for speed rather than stamina. He certainly wasn’t stopping in the drive to the line.
His hvy ground Cheltenham defeat is easily excusable, his Liverpool Hurdle 2nd not so, but it’s difficult to believe that stamina was the issue when he capitulated so far from home, over a c/d he had sauntered home over previously on appreciably softer ground. Other stout stayers also apparently "weakened" in that race suggesting that maybe it wasn’t stamina that was the problem.
Tend to agree with Nick Mordin about Hardy Eustace. Though he won a Sun Alliance, it wasn’t much of a stamina test, and he has been found wanting over 2.5m more than once since. Hasn’t looked like he needed further, and the extra 5.5 furlongs further than his lto win poses him a big question.
With nothing else near the class of these two, BJK ought to be a decent bet.On the subject of Champion Hurdlers going on to win over 3m+, Lanzarote, 1974 Champion winner, won the Long Walk in 1975 carrying 12 stone 5 lbs to victory.
I agree with Reet- this smacks of a bandwagon you need to get off:
Conventional wisdom has it that BJK is not genuine, doesn’t stay and his stable is out of form. He trades at 4/1 on BF tonight and I can see him getting bigger tomorrow- I’ll be backing him.
I don’t think Hardy will stay, Kasbah has similar stamina concerns and Special Envoy has a bit to find but may be next best. If I were to put up a longshot, it would be Chief Dan George, who may have been prematurely written off.Lough Derg at big odds is a good e/w saver. Always runs well at Ascot and only got beat by Mighty Man in this race last year at 50/1.
You could do worse.and it what way is he 100% a 3 mile horse? He’s been found out too many times at the top level. Let him cruise in a 2m and see what happens..
Well Jonjo must have been running him under another name. I am totally confused by your post.
Heavy ground put paid to his chances at Cheltenham and you can forget that.
He then returned there for the festival and was a short priced fav and the banker of the meeting. He was the fittest he has ever been in his life and fell at the first………4 weeks later he went to Aintree but had left his race on the gallops..it’s called being over the top.
Lets see what happens today, yard may not be firing on all cylinders and if he is beaten it won’t be because there is a better horse in the race and that includes Hardy Useless……..oops!!!
I’m betting him today because he owes me big time after Cheltenham and I don’t think he’s had a fair crack of the whip……..got no choice really because if he won and I am not on I would put a gun to my head…….plus I need the money to buy some bullets for the damn thing in case Kauto gets beat at Kempton
V V confident.
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