- This topic has 6 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 2 years ago by
.
- Posts
Illinois ran quite a bit below his best when only 3rd in the Ballysax first time out, but we know how the vast majority of AOB’s horses have been coming on for the run this season. The Euphrates finished 2nd, beating Illinois that day… A rare AOB horse to improve his form first time up… But although the stable companions have yet to run on anything but soft/heavy – I believe Illinois’s leg action makes him the more likely to act on this “Good” surface… And Illinois’s third in the Criterium De Saint-Cloud is the best form in the race… And raced away from the possibly favoured rail. A worthy favourite backed before he was fav. That said, the 9/1 or 8/1 about The Euphrates also makes him worth taking a chance on the ground.
At a much bigger price have done Salamanca @ 25/1. Jane Chapple-Hyam regularly tilts at windmills, but that also tends to make some of her better horses value at bigger prices. His action is very much of one that will be suited by any more firming up of the ground. Unlucky not to beat Endless Victory last time out and that one started a short price for the Listed Newmarket Stakes next time… Although Salamanca was getting 7 lbs from the Godolphin horse, Salamanca was having just his second run of his life. Also getting 7 lbs from Meydaan who was 3 1/4 lengths behind. So that the pair go into this with similar form. Meydaan in 12/1 and Salamanca 20/1… And Meydaan’s action is less likely to be effective on this ground on this track.
Value Is EverythingOf the others:
Defiance ran well at Epsom and is certain to go on the ground and track. But it’s still behind Illinois’s form and lacks physical scope. Was favourite last night, probably only because the Highclere boys and girls wanted to get on their Derby horse. That silly price made the race for me, thanks. Has since gone for a walk but is getting to a backable price now.
Arabic Legend was 2 lengths behind Defiance at Epsom and don’t see a reason he should reverse the form. But @ 28/1 it does show how much Defiance needs to improve.
At Vemeiro was only beaten around 4 lengths in the Group 2 Royal Lodge last year on similar ground to this… Just a neck behind Defiance, but has run poorly since. Speculation he could be Salamanca’s pacemaker.
Imperial Sovereign is the main market mover. But only because Hugh Taylor makes him a 2 point bet according to The Opening Show this morning. Greatly respect HT… but why Imperial Soveriegn? Does he have a particularly good grass stride or something – raced solely on the AW in two runs – not winning.
Ambiente Friendly was 3rd in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes when making the running but failed in the Fielden when held up on a day that favoured prominent runners. Not sure to get this trip and stable yet to fire this season.
Value Is EverythingI’ve been wondering why Salamanca is such a big price with 2 good runs under his belt. Im guessing Endless Story’s poor run in listed company is playing a part but im confident he’ll run well again and im backing him each way.
Was tempted by Salamanca but am just watching.
The more I know the less I understand.
I like the run of The Euphrates last time even though he was third string that day and doesn’t have the physical scope of Illinois. The latter was as fat as a bull on reappearance by the sound of Ruby Walsh and Gary O’Brien’s comments so presumably will come on a pile, but I wonder if the smaller horse might nip up and down Lingfield better so The Euphrates is my selection.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.