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I had a saver on Yuften Gord, I was surprised that there was/is still 14/1 available after that excellent effort today. With the advantage of a recent run, he has to be a danger to my early pick Morando.
It was one of those runs that screamed ‘Get On’ Steve…’Morando’ is only 1lb better off from Balmoral run but may have improved from 4-5yo but Yuften was absolutely flying at the finish of that 7f race and had it been over a mile he’d have bolted in..Has to go for the ‘Lincoln’ off this mark and not Group races yet.
Thanks VTC have been looking in and seen your write ups,looks to have been a fruitful year for you.Good luck for next week mate.If you could whack a few outsiders up next week so I can play a placepot
Yeah N, had a fairly decent season , especially with the “Big Races”, and Ante-Post for Cheltenham has went like clockwork for once.
Not had winner for a while though, and more or less stopped betting on Saturdays, as struggling to find a winner. I’d like to be in better form for Cheltenham, so fingers crossed. Hoping Folsom Blue can get me back on track tomorrow in Ireland, otherwise I’d say swerve my placepot picks lol…………I’ll see what I can dig out on the day
PS not looked at The Lincoln yet, but will throw up a Spring Double thread after Cheltenham, so I’ll have a look then.
Don’t back Afjaan
Thanks steve its a good job im not a anti post bettor its a joke that bookmaker keep these horses in when there not going to turn up no wonder people get mad with there crafty ways! i’m differently going to follow him this season tho there is a lot more to come from him
Don’t back Afjaan
Thanks steve its a good job im not a anti post bettor its a joke that bookmaker keep these horses in when there not going to turn up no wonder people get mad with there crafty ways! i’m differently going to follow him this season tho there is a lot more to come from him
Afjaan is as low as 12/1 and so is Victory Bond. That’s ridiculous when the trainer says the former isn’t going to run and the latter might not be ready to run.
Stan James still have Landfall in the Derby betting. The horse is a gelding and cannot be entered, so if they have taken any bets on him they should be refunding them. None of the racing forums seem to have the balls to take bookies to task over this carry on. I remember a John Gosden horse still in the 2000 Guineas betting a few years ago, several months after it had died. Come on bookies, get your fingers out of your jacksies.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Morando is a best priced 8/1 now and that seems to be drying up to 7/1.
Yuften is tightening towards 10/1 now.Haggas’s two are only quoted by three firms now, as bookies catch up with the old news that the trainer has more or less ruled them out.
Hopefully we will get some news regarding Morando and whether he definitely goes here in the next week or so.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Placed a bet on You’re Fired here @ 28.0
Always takes a run or two to get going and he’s had 2 runs on the AW lately. Last time over 10F which he’s never raced over before.
His best run came at the end of last year in a listed race on the all weather, and ran second to Ennaad who looks a serious horse.In third that day was Sovereign Debt who won his 2 previous races and only gave 2 lbs to YF. Hoping to see Jordan Vaughan’s name next to it who won on him last year.
Probably i’ll do an E/W bet closer to the day.
You’re Fired was 10th last year. That was off 102 and he went on to win next time, going up to 105. A second to So Beloved in Listed company saw him rise to 108 before three modest Handicap runs saw him dropped back to 103. Another second in a Listed race saw him hiked to 107 but a last of 6 and then a run behind Convey in the Winter Derby, saw him dropped back 2 lbs to 105.
I thought he was probably a bit lucky if he got the drop of 2 lbs for his Winter Derby run. It was probably too far and he was only beaten a little over 6 lengths on the day, not bad for a 50/1 shot.
He’s still 3 lbs higher than last year though and the soft that day should have suited, as he’s won twice on that going. He seems pretty much a pure miler, 20 of his 26 runs coming at that trip.
I feel overall that his forays into better company have led to him being handicapped just the bit too much but good luck with him at a big price.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Interesting though is’nt it Steve?
FTO at 2 nowhere then 2nd time out wins. Same at 3,4 & 5. Probably coincidence but it’s like backing a horse FTO that’s won first time out every year he has raced. Only the big difference is this is 3rd time out.
Ground will be fine won 2nd time out last year on fast ground.
Interesting though is’nt it Steve?
FTO at 2 nowhere then 2nd time out wins. Same at 3,4 & 5. Probably coincidence but it’s like backing a horse FTO that’s won first time out every year he has raced. Only the big difference is this is 3rd time out.
Ground will be fine won 2nd time out last year on fast ground.
I do like horses who can win first time out. I find the second time out winning a little less logical but if it’s a pattern that works for the horse concerned then maybe there is an angle there.
I saw that he’s won on good, good to firm, good to soft and soft. I just felt he might have run a little better in last year’s Lincoln on the soft ground because he had won on it twice and other horses might not like it.
I did Brian Meehan’s Mutakarez last year but he pulled too hard. He did make some headway but ran out of puff on the testing surface.
Morando is hardening towards 6/1 and Yuften is drying up towards 8/1. Obviously happy to have taken both at 14/1. As always getting the odds is the easy part, getting them to win is a totally different story.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Both Yuften and Morando seem to be the obvious choices for this but as most of you on here know not the kind of prices that I like to back!!
The two that I am interested in at the moment are ZHUI FENG which only got beat four lengths in the Balmoral after having to run down the middle of the track for the whole race and finished fifth in the Cambridgeshire having been drawn on probably the wrong side!! And maybe didn’t get home over the nine furlongs AND was considered good enough to run in the Guineas last year 25/1
The other one I am interested in is INSTANT ATTRACTION who started off last year with third in the Spring Mile at Donny and then ran some good races in defeat in some decent handicaps and then ran seventh in the Hunt Cup off this same mark of 99. Seems to go well fresh and at 33/1 could be too big a price!!
I see on the At The Races website that David Lawrence is trotting out the very familiar, to me, refrain that the Lincoln winner will carry 9st 4lbs or less, based on the ten year trends.
I had this theory put to me on another forum but as I said then, the race is changing from what it used to be.
Very Wise won in 2007, the start race for Lawrence’s trends and that year 20 horses ran, with weights carried varying from 9st 10lbs down to 8st 6lbs. That is a weight spread of 18lbs covering the field. Last year however, the 22 runner field were covered by a spread of just 7lbs. That is a lot more compacted field.
I used to be a Chemical Analyst and any scientist will tell you that when you start narrowing a field in any statistic, the worth of it starts to deteriorate. Ultimately, the spread would narrow to the point where every horse carries the same weight and any weight trend is useless.
In terms of the 9st 4lbs break off point. If the top weight is on 9st 10lbs and the spread is 5lbs, then no horse in the race can have less than 9st 5lbs and the trend figure of 9st 4lbs is meaningless.
In last year’s race the bottom weights were carrying 9st 2lbs so it was more luck than good judgement that the winner carried 9st 4lbs.
On another forum I was accused of trying to belittle the trends men. It’s just common bloody sense and I would have thought that someone writing for At The Races would have spotted that highly spurious analysis.
Mind you, when David Lawrence puts one to follow up in his blog, it is usually one that Stevie Wonder could pick. I recall him stating that Godolphin’s D’bai had a maiden in him last season, before the horse promptly scrambled home at odds of 1/5 Fav.
Anyway the race has changed an awful lot in a generation and any trends should be re-assessed for their value on an annual basis, rather than lazily being trotted out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I don’t have the declarations yet but the betting is on the move this morning.
Morando, Yuften and Sacred Act have all been cut.
Morando is 5/1, Yuften 13/2 and Sacred Act 10/1 with Paddy Power this morning.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think a few of you might shout me down on this but I am going to say it anyway. LOL
If Sacred Act gets in I think it will start favourite!!
After the two I have already backed my other two are the aforementioned Sacred Act and Chelsea Lad. Chelsea Lad looked like being a promising horse early last year but then got an injury and was put away for the season and could end up being much better than its current rating of 96.
And sacred Act is a group horse in waiting IMOPossibly looking at Soft ground here with plenty of rain forecast this week in the area.
Took some 33’s on Battle of Marathon to atone for last years slightly unlucky run when a fast finishing third. Lack of a run is a bit of a negative but appears to be still on the upgrade.
Not sure about favourite but with Gosden flying high after Jack Hobbs, Sacred Act will be popular. There are 91 left of the 108 entries but once we get the balloting done there will be heavy pruning down done.
I have seen several different cards for the race this morning. One stated 97 runners,one gave it as 91 runners and the one on the Racing Post site has everything after number 31 listed as non-runners, so, take your pick?
The Racing Post card shows Sacred Act as number 27, meaning he will need some to come out before Saturday to get a run. Seeing him there reminded me that I did the horse above him, but on the same rating, Sir Roderic in a small each-way bet back in February at 40/1. Millman’s horse was progressive last year and goes on soft, so he was worth a wee each-way I felt. Just need him to squeeze in and Sacred Act out from a selfish point of view
Chelsea Lad is unexposed and caught my eye but he’s been absent since May last year and you would assume there must have been a problem with him for him not to have been seen again since.
Morando win at 14/1
Yuften win at 14/1
Sir Roderic E/W 40/1
Is my final position on the race.Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
just re looking and Chelsea Lad stands out big time improving unexposed handicapper with a good weight big plus being a 4yo Martin Meade is a fantastic trainer and would lay him out for this his form ties in with group class goes well fresh being a debut winner cut in the ground no problem this will be the biggest field his ran in and of course not a good sign him being off since may but if his over the worst i think his a serious horse for this race and the season 14/1 good price Good Luck All happy flat season
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