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Would think Flemenstar would stay the GC is he gets 3m in this ground. Hope he wins to set up a great GC this year.
What a race that was. Tidal Bay flew up the hill to just chin First Lieutenant. First Lieutenant lost nothing in defeat and all roads now lead to Cheltenham for both horses. Interesting that Andrew Lynch said Flemenstar was wound up in the parade ring and pulled too hard, and would have been better being let bowl along in front. He now goes to the Hennessy with every chance.
My favourite Sir Des Champs didn’t jump well and was under pressure coming out of the back straight. That being said he’d probably have won with a good jump at the second last where he was very slow. I’m not losing the faith with him and hope he’ll jump better on better ground at the Festival. He’s still my selection for the Gold Cup, although Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant did no harm to the Bobs Worth form.
Things didn’t go perfectly for the 3rd and 4th but, as Ted Walsh said, they were only beaten by a snot and lost very little in defeat.
Makes you wonder what Tidal Bay could have achieved had he been with Paul Nicholls throughout his career.
Flemenstar travel’s and jumps so well that it would be exciting to see him in the Champion Chase against Sprinter Sacre.
Agree Arazi. But what a fantastic achievement to turn this horse around so late in his career. The GC is not inconceivable at all and if BW is clear favourite, make what we will of TB’s concession of weight that day
Some will claim that SDC will jump better next time but i always veer towards scepticism in these instances
Flemenstar travels so well but is there much in the locker? In reality he looks unlikely to go the staying route. Ryanair surely? Not sure hes one to beat SS in the QM
Well on good ground you`d think Flemenstar would have won with a couple of lenght. Yeah I would say he was a shoe in for the ryanair should he run but with better ground expected in the GC I wouldn`t say Flemenstar would be without a chance. Either was tough call to make for connections!
That’s got to be a contender for race of the year.
What can we learn from that? Well, out of the first four home, two don’t get the trip, one we still don’t know about*, and one definitely does. The one that definitely does was the winner.
The only small hope for Ireland in the Gold Cup is if Follow The Plan makes Cheltenham his annual ‘bloody hell, who could have seen that coming? Oh.’ race. It’s a small hope indeed.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
What a race and what a finish! You really do have to take your hat off to Paul Nicholls and Tidal Bay himself. He just keeps on and keeps on and apparently doesn’t know when to give in.
An extremely awkward head carriage but it doesn’t seem to matter.
It’s difficult what to make of Flemenstar’s performance there. Came there absolutely cruising, but that extra step up in trip possibly hasn’t helped him. However, Tidal Bay has been campaigned over 3m and same with First Lieutenant, so Flemenstar wasn’t exactly disgraced on his first run at that distance.
Will be interesting to see where connections send Flemenstar now, in regard to a festival target. I, like many others, cannot see anything beating Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, so will connections opt for the Ryanair? It does seem the race to possibly suit him the most at this point.
Great race though, and again, well done to Tidal Bay and connections.
Firstly, what a fantastic blood-and-guts race; ?first time Lexus a better race than the KG.
Also delighted for Tidal Bay, I’ve been following him for years and if he’d been with Nicholls and Ruby who knows what he would have achieved. As regards Gold Cup, I think First L and SDC will probably improve past Tidal Bay; they are both on the upgrade. Sadly it appears Flemenstar doesn’t quite stay, though on good ground at C’ham it might be different. He also ran every wide and seemed to pull for the first circuit.The only small hope for Ireland in the Gold Cup is if Follow The Plan makes Cheltenham his annual ‘bloody hell, who could have seen that coming? Oh.’ race.
An astonishing rally from Tidal Bay. I wonder what odds he was offered at during running?
A couple of fences out it looked like I had visualised the race spot on, with Tidal Bay seemingly out of the picture and Flemenstar coasting. Fillet Steak and Champagne were on the menu. Wind it forward and suddenly Flemenstar and I were both gasping for air and the wife was fixing corned beef sandwiches and Tizer for dinner. That’s racing for you, A1 to A-hole in 30 seconds.
Bobs Worth is as low as 5/2 favourite now for THE Gold Cup. Ladbrokes 7/1 on Flemenstar looks as appetising as my corned beef sandwich will tomorrow morning, particularly with 12/1 being freely available elsewhere. For me, he didn’t stay today and has no chance of lifting the big one. Sir Des Champs is one to avoid for now, I don’t think many would have visualised his two runs panning out the way they have this season.
Thrilling finish though it was, it was a bit disappointing in terms of throwing up a potential star. A Hobbit’s jockstrap would have covered the first four home and the old man showed them how to finish a race off.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lexus Chase
I was very impressed with
Flemenstar
last time, a top class racehorse. But at 3 miles on stamina sapping going, with other pace setters in there – at 6/4 I am opposing him. 32% 85/40
Sir Des Champs
was outpaced by Flemenstar at 2 1/2 miles, looked like being beaten out of sight at one point but stayed on. 3 miles should suit him a lot more than Flemenstar. At around 11/4 is worthy of at least a saver. 30% 9/4
Don’t shoot me! I’ve backed an 11 year old Timeform squiggle horse.
Tidal Bay
hasn’t done anything wrong this season and from what connections are saying is a happier, better horse this term. Certainly looked that way in the Hennessey. Comes out the best horse at the weights there, better than the Gold Cup favourite. If you told me a year ago I would be backing Tidal Bay to win any race, let alone a Grade 1, I’d have laughed my head off. However, this race may be run to suit. 20% 4/1
Hennessey 4th
First Lieutenent
is the other main bet. It may look to some as if he was outstayed at Newbury; but as I said after the race, he’d done best of those up with a fast pace there. So may be better than finishing positions indicate. If the prominent runners don’t (once again) go off too quickly – could surprise some people. 20-something/1 on betfair is too big to ignore. 7% 13/1
My other saver is Joe’s tip
China Rock
, taken 59/1. First time tongue tie worked the oracle on his final start last season in the Punchestown Gold Cup on similar ground to this. If fit for his reappearance could run far better than his odds indicate. One thing that stopped me from making him a main bet was the fact he may need to race prominently. 3% 33/1
Hidden Cyclone
is improving but needs to find a good deal more to win this. Not proven at this trip either. Prolific winner, but well placed up to now. Even current betfair price of 14/1 doesn’t look generous to me. 4% 25/1
Pandorama
is a good horse at his best, but has been off so long it’s difficult to know what ability he still posesses and if he can show it tomorrow. 1.5% 66/1
Quito De La Roque
didn’t run well at Aintree and even though should be suited by conditions and how the race is run – it’s difficult to see him good enough to actually win. 2% 50/1
Midnight Chase
is a marvelous racehorse, I hope he’s seen in the Grand National this year, that’s his race. Not up to this and may be taken on up front. 0.5% 200/1
Advice:
Biggest Main bet
Tidal Bay @ 5/1
1st
Smaller Main bet (but to win most)
First Lieutenent @ 24/1
2nd
Saver
Sir Des Champs @ 11/4
4th
Saver
China Rock @ 59/1
5th
With so many horses who like to race prominently/lead, this race always looked likely to suit Tidal Bay’s style of running. Dropped out the back. Hope Timeform take the squiggle off his rating now.
Flemenstar taken on and always wanted to go a stride too quickly; bold jumping made lengths at fences but needing to be reigned back to stop him going too quickly. Will need to settle far better if he’s to have a chance of staying the Gold Cup trip. You’d think the Ryanair is his race, although it would be great to see Sprinter Sacre V Flemenstar.
Don’t see this race as scuppering Ireland’s Gold Cup chances at all. Hennessey form had Tidal Bay beaten 3 1/4 lengths but giving 6 lbs to Bobs Worth. So on form there’s not much at all between Bobs Worth, Tidal Bay, First Lieutenent and Sir Des Champs. I’d certainly think that BW should be favourite, as he possibly has most scope for further improvement. But the differences in ante-post prices are ridiculous.
Am on First Lieutenent for the Gold Cup and really hope he takes up that option. Once again doing best of those at or near the strong pace. Still improving, this his best perfomance yet. Making up 5 lengths on Tidal Bay from Newbury, despite being 7 lbs worse off at the weights. We know he goes very well at Cheltenham and at least as effective on good going. Something that also goes for another Gigginstown horse.
Sir Des Champs has an action which is seldom suited by very soft ground. Despite that, he’s still improving. Don’t forget he’s up against established chasers this year, not novices. Impressive wins in both Festival runs on good ground at Cheltenham. Given similar conditions it wouldn’t be a surprise once again to see him leave this form well behind come March.
Value Is EverythingExcellent stuff Ginger…..both pre race and after….
Strongly fancied Flemenstar but looked a blatant non-stayer to me…..real shame as he travelled and jumped like an absolute wonderhorse for a long way….seeing 4 or 5 top quality horses being rode along for all they were worth while he was still hard on the steel was a picture…..shame he didn’t see it out…..
I think he would be nailed on for the Ryanair, but the selfish part of me would love to see him take on Sprinter Sacre….if only just to re-ignite a bit of interest back into that race….
As for the Gold Cup….I can’t see past Bobs Worth now…..I always thought Barry had half a stone plus up his sleeve if need be in the Hennessy….he’s 4/4 at Cheltenham and looks absolutely rock solid to me after the form being franked by those two today….
Thrilling race by the way and brilliant finish….what racing is all about win or lose betting wise…!
Yes, tremendous post Ginger beyond belief how you could find the winner by just backing four of the nine runners. Wish I could do that.
Yes, tremendous post Ginger beyond belief how you could find the winner by just backing four of the nine runners. Wish I could do that.
At least you broke even Ginger.
The jockey on Flemenstar didn’t shine, he looks an ideal ride for Ruby Walsh.
Apparently Peter Casey on record as saying the Ryanair is a non-entity of a race and doubts now whether the Gold Cup is the race….. very much looks like a clash with Sprinter Sacre is on the cards in the Queen Mother….!
Casey apperently sending flem to the hennesy for another crack at three miles. The jockey seems to think he can get three miles, I wouldnt bury him just yet as most people seem to be.
Havent rewatched the race but apperently pulled hard plus the soft ground. Travelled so sweatly bit surprised he been buried already he may very well come back into the equation after the irish hennesy.
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