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Hi ,could anyone help me on my place theory , it involves the Adrian Massey website . I would like to exchange a simple but extremely profitable systen. I have not used this system yet but have paper traded it for some months , its so simple even a child could do it "thats my problem" . It involves no calculations no knowlage of horses or even anything about horseracing , am i being daft ? i dont know ! but it looks to good to be true. Will somebody tell me why this will not make loads of money .This is my first posting here and would apreciate any input.
Can i also add to my thread that this is a post that i hope to exchange theories on this system .It could make money for all of us if im correct
Hello Mal,
Firstly may I say it is good to have a "virgin" poster here, so it is my pleasure to be the first to offer you a welcome.
Sadly and too often with these message boards it is not easy to ensure your message come across in the right way to ALL of those who read them and I am one of those who find your message a little unclear.
Place betting is a very interesting style which holds a lot of interest to those of a cautious nature unable to put up with long losing runs.
You say you wish to exchange it but I am unclear as to exchange for what.
Simple and easy ideas can hold total genius within and perhaps yours does so and for your own sake I do hope, you ask for someone to tell you why it will not make money but sadly without full knowledge of the system it is impossible to offer any reply.
You face a dilemma of offering a full description of your system and risk others exploiting it or remaining without an answer to your question and keeping your secret safe within yourself.
Billy's Outback Shack
thanks for your reply , i agree with everything you say and believe me when i say " i do not have any problems" in exchanging views knowing i may have something that may give others the means to make money. The system is so basic you will probably dismiss it at once but if you look you will see it works , the problem for me is no one will want to discuse it and tell me where i am going wrong.
You say no one will discuss it, am I right in saying you have tried somewhere else?
Give it a shot here and see what happens.
Also again I am sorry if I am muddled but is it a place system or as in the title a lay system?
For me laying is a no go area, I tried it but found one winner blew away all the profit I had made and found the experience far too stressfull, I enjoy the thrill of a win (now and again) and no thrill in finding a loser but each to their own I say.
So come on
Mal
give it a go and see how you get on in this place.
Billy's Outback Shack
It is past my bed time and the Horlicks is starting to work so I am shutting the machine down for the night
Mal
and perhaps there will be a posting from you when I get up in the morning.
Billy's Outback Shack
My mum used to say "you have to keep on going to get somewhere" well here we go any input into this would be great. I have a system on betting which has only lost 3 times 730 days . the problem is i have been looking at another way of making money , and thats laying. I have been using Adrian Massey to try and find a way to lay horses. I have tried wieght , coarse , distance , last time out and every else you could care to mention . I looked for ages and ages and paper traded lots of things but then i saw this . If you look at Massey ratings and then narrow it down to handycap races only , look at the 3rd rated horse and check how many times it has won. If im correct (and this will be the first time since 1982)they never win , and once more the odds are pretty good. So 3rd horse to lay in handycap races look back and tell me IS THIS A LAY SYSTEM you will be supprised at the results. PLEASE FEEL WELCOME TO RESPOND ,feed back is good
‘morning
Mal
, I hope some of the membership here come to your aid although I am not so sure if they can help because if the system is that good I must ask you "What help do you want"
Laying is not my thing so I will pass the baton (so to speak) to others.
I also have tried to pm members and could not so again it is good to see there is a another , dare I say as clueless as me.
Good luck with your idea.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hello again
Mal
Now if I have read you right the following should ALL be selections which are bet to LOSE: –
Kempton
1.55 SENOR SHANE 17.5
2.30 VERY COOL 44.0
3.40 DON’T TELL THE WIFE 4.8
4.10 VIABLE 13.5Plumpton
12.40 HAWK GOLD 10.0
2.20 YOU CAN OF COURSE 4.5
3.30 SEBASTIANO 21.0
4.00 PENNYROCK 17.5Wolverhampton
3.15 VAMOS 3.65
3.50 LILAC MOON 9.8
4.50 SQUIRTLE 11.0All early available prices taken from BetFair 10.15 am and some of them scare the brown juices out of me!!
It only takes one of those big ones to come in and I would be wiped out.
If it were me (and it is not) I would only think of laying the three under 5.0
Billy's Outback Shack
mal1964
From Adrian Massey’s website:-
Arian Massey web site
Generate Custom report
Handicap races only (Flat, Jumps & AW)
3rd rated (including joint rated)25546 Bets
3229 Win
12.6% Strike rateThis indicates a 87.4% strike rate if laying or to put it another way for every 100 lays you would expect 13 winners.
This equates to having to lay an average price of below 7.7 to show a profit.
Glancing through the list of selections 2004-2009 the price range covers odds on shots right out to 66/1
Here is a list of Adrians 3rd rated in handicaps for today with Betfair lay prices at 10:30am:-
13:55 Kemp 6 SENOR SHANE 15
14:30 Kemp 6 VERY COOL 36
15:40 Kemp 3 DONT TELL THE WIFE 4.5
16:10 Kemp 1 VIABLE 1212:40 Plum 11 HAWK GOLD 9.2
14:20 Plum 9 YOU CAN OF COURSE 4.2
15:30 Plum 1 SEBASTIANO 10
16:00 Plum 11 PENNYROCK 1615:15 Wolv 3 VAMOS 3.55
15:15 Wolv 1 BARBARIAN 11.515:50 Wolv 4 LILAC MOON 9
16:50 Wolv 10 SQUIRTLE 10.5Billion looks like you were posting the selections while I was working them out.
I have an extra one as there are two joint 3rd rated in the 15:15 Wolv
It’s amazing how the prices can change in 15 minutes. You clocked Very Cool at 44 while I spied it at 36.
Thanks for your help on this one , I still think theres another angle on this system . At least the good people of this forum take time out to share their thaughts many thanks.
I am no expert regarding laying
Dolus
but I guess if doing so you would stand a far better chance by leaving the LAY BET until much closer to the off and setting a price limit to as you suggest 7.7
There are such things I hear as "Bots" or some such name, would they be of any help. Sorry if this sounds stupid but I am a "technophobe" with a dislike for laying.
Mal
obviously has another ace up his sleeve which may make all the difference. I respect him not wanting to reveal ALL but then I say with the utmost respect how can anyone help without full knowledge of the workings.
Billy's Outback Shack
mal1964
I’m getting confused here.
mal1964 wrote
I have a system on betting which has only lost 3 times 730 days . the problem is i have been looking at another way of making money , and thats laying. I have been using Adrian Massey to try and find a way to lay horses.
Re-reading your posts you actually have two systems, one that works and this laying Adrians 3rd rated that you are not sure about???
And there was me thinking we were all talking about one system that already worked but you could not figure out if you were going wrong somewhere.
So have you actually made money with the profitable system or have you only paper traded, as that is not clear from your first post?
Hi Billion
How come I keep making a post and you beat me to it and say the same thing in a different way.
Laying is a funny beast, but in reality it is no different to backing.
As someone once described it.
With backing you have lots of small losses with a few big wins
With laying you have lots of small wins with a few big losses.
I’ve tried both and laying always lulls the operator into a false sense of security until a few winners in a row kills the profit or worse.
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