- This topic has 61 replies, 3 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Yes i do have a system for winning bets only , i have been using it now for at lest 2 years its only let me down 3 times. The laying system is something im thinking about doing , and have only paper traded it so far.
Now you have whetted our appetites you will have to give us a clue.
I have a system on betting which has only lost 3 times 730 days.
Is this a progressive/loss recovery staking system where you have had 727 winning days and 3 losing days as opposed to hundreds of actual bets where only 3 have lost.
Of course it could be a highly selective system and you only had 5 bets in the whole 730 days.
If I had such a system which had only let me down 3 times in 2 years I don’t think I would bother with any other form of betting.
However the hunt is always on form the Holy Grail of systems although
Mal
looks to be mighty close.
Billy's Outback Shack
mal1964 I shall look forward to that.
I have looked at progressive staking in all sorts of ways and while the maths can’t be faulted the achilles heel is that at some point either the punter runs out of money or the stakes are refused.
As far as I can make out, this is because those damned horses will not win in predetermined patterns or sequences.
I said I would only lay three and one of those beggers won and that is why I don’t like
LAYING!
Billy's Outback Shack
That’s what comes of laying at the front of the market.
If the whole lot had been laid, there was 1 NR and 10 winning bets. 9.5 points after 5% commission minus the 3.2 paid out on the winning horses leaves 6.3 points net.
Not bad if you can forget that there were 8 horses that if any one of them had won would have caused a loss on the day.
I was in a betting shop 3years ago just like everybody in there loosing more than i was winning. I always back faves as they win 37% of the time , the problem was the till you had to carry in order to make a proff. I was trying to find away of reducing the loosing runs and it was only by chance a guy told me this.
buy the racing post every day and for every race write down the RPR horse i also like to put how many tipster are going for it as well as when there are 8 or more the horse is well respected .
Once you have done this all you have to do is wait for the horse to be fave,when it is its a bet. If you look at the stats in the racing post if the RPR horse is fave it wins 52% of the time . I have never looked back it usually wins within the first 4 bets but i normally leave the odds onn alone . I have records for every day for 2 years and its only failed on 3 days and to my dispair its happnd twice in the last week .I have a large bank in Betfair but it can be proffitable with smaller bets.I wish i could add another thread and make it easier but i have never bothered .If you want any stats on this i have them but i think its self explanitary .What do you think?Just another note to say i layed all of Massey 3rd rated and it was in good proff although my bum twitched a few times.
Nerves of steele
Mal
, nerves of steele.
Still, I take my hat off to you for having a winning day.
Billy's Outback Shack
I am not a great one for figures
Dolus
but please tell me what was the total liability in order to win 6.3 points?
Billy's Outback Shack
This will be interesting as i would think it would be alot due the fact i was laying at £100 . Now you can understand why i was twitchy.
Hi mal1964
Thanks for putting that up.
I take it you mean the RPR horse that is tipped in the selection box and not the top rated horse as there can be more than one horse with the top rating especially in handicaps.
The selection box is no longer available for free, only on subscription or by buying the RP.
I suppose I could pop down the bookies and write them all down. I wonder what excuse I would need.
As I do not have access to the selection box I used the top rated in each race that was also returned as the favourite in the results.
12:40 Plum What Luck
12:50 Kemp Slip
13:45 Plum Love Of Tara
14:20 Plum You Can Of Course WON 5/2
15:05 Kemp Duc De Regniere WON 1/1
15:15 Wolv Royal Willy (JT Top)(Jt Fav)
15:30 Plum Royal Kicks
15:40 Kemp Shillingstone (JT Top) WON 7/2
15:50 Wolv Kazbow (JT Top)
16:00 Plum Crystal Prince (JT Fav)
16:20 Wolv Excellent Thought
16:50 Wolv Leyte Gulf WON 10/312 bets 4 winners
returns 14.33 minus 12 points for the stakes = 2.33 points profit.REMOVE THE JOINT TOP RATED & JOINT FAVOURITES
12:40 Plum What Luck
12:50 Kemp Slip
13:45 Plum Love Of Tara
14:20 Plum You Can Of Course WON 5/2
15:05 Kemp Duc De Regniere WON 1/1
15:30 Plum Royal Kicks
16:20 Wolv Excellent Thought
16:50 Wolv Leyte Gulf WON 10/38 bets 3 winners
returns 9.83 minus 8 points for the stakes 1.83 points profit.REMOVE THE JOINT FAVOURITES ONLY
12:40 Plum What Luck
12:50 Kemp Slip
13:45 Plum Love Of Tara
14:20 Plum You Can Of Course WON 5/2
15:05 Kemp Duc De Regniere WON 1/1
15:30 Plum Royal Kicks
15:40 Kemp Shillingstone (JT Top) WON 7/2
15:50 Wolv Kazbow (JT Top)
16:20 Wolv Excellent Thought
16:50 Wolv Leyte Gulf WON 10/310 bets 4 winners returns 14.33 points minus 10 points for the stakes 4.33 points profit.
If this is a typical day then it looks pretty good without the risk of progressive staking but looks a bit of a slow burner. No bad thing as as a fairly risk free small increase each day is not to be sneezed at.The only drawback I can see is having to wait to see if the horse is favourite. With progressive staking and only needing one winner, you would have been done and dusted at 14:20.
Out of curiosity did you lay
You Can Of Course
as it was a selection in the backing system?
I am not a great one for figures
Dolus
but please tell me what was the total liability in order to win 6.3 points?
I take it you mean the total money at risk before any race had been run.
I like to keep things simple so I work it out to win 1 point on each successful lay, so the liability on each is simply the price taken minus one for the backers stake.
The total liability was 114.45 points.
or trying to win £100 each lay, £11,445.Now that is scary. mal1964 had more on the horses today than I own. I could always sell the house
Of course only that amount would have been lost if all of them had won.
hi Dolus ,
thanks for your input , i usually go to the betting sight when i look at the racing post as it has all the info i need there, once the page is up i then look at the Newspaper solection box where you will find the RPR horse . You can get them for free every morning although if you want them the evening before they will charge you ,having said that they are up now for free.
There were 11 bets in all today , the 5th won at i think 3/1 and it had a total of 4 winners .There are a lot of picks that actually place with this system ithink without checking its around 80% so i suppose theres another string to the bow.
There must be a way of taking this system forward to reduce the races you bet inn for eg handycap or not handycap races , i have never checked but i do have all the results to do so . Although in the last week it has droped a little this system gives you a winner in the first 3 bets at a rate of around 75% so you can see the attraction in using it.
Any banter on this would be great because as i have said there is a way of taking this further .
By the way at the moment it looks like there are three for tomorrow that look like being favesThanks Chaps for a very interesting day.
With no expectation to use either system perhaps it is easier to make a judgement view and the RPR (backing) system looks ideal for an out of fashion staking plan, that of Stop At A Winner.
If as Mal stats he expects around 25% strike rate or one winner to fall within the first four bets I would suggest a 4 race coup or sequence and as soon as the winner turns up either go to the bank or start another coup/ sequence.
Although not a great fan of retrieval staking (I once in my mad youth got carried away and lost far more than I could affored) it should be easy enough to set out a 4 bet plan going up or down according to "how you like it" but for simplicity sake lets say 10 points per coup/sequence.
Bet 1 = 1 pts stake …….lost
Bet 2 = 2 pts stake . . . .lost
Bet 3 = 3 pts stake . . . .lost
Bet 4 = 4 pts stake . . . .lostIf all losers pack up and go home or whatever but the total loss is known before the days betting starts 10 x 1 = £10 or 10 x 10 = £100
Should the winner come at any point in the sequence Stop at a Winner is brought into play and then as said go to the bank or start again.
Retrieval is dangerous but if implemented in such a way as knowing where the controlled cut of point is then it becomes manageable (I think).
Once profit is accrued it can easily be ratcheted up up to suit.
Billy's Outback Shack
Now here’s a thought which I am unable to confirm but you can check it out tomorrow.
If memory serves me well but cannot be guaranteed, BETDAQ site, specific race say 7.30 Wolv’s (or whatever) above the runners only a click away is a selection box with all the main newspaper tips.
Billy's Outback Shack
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.