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William,
I wont beat about the bush – this system is a dud (before reacting too violently remember I said ‘this system’ and not you).
There are about a thousand reasons I could list to prove my point – here are three:
1. The Rationale<br>What you have said is wait for a card with three losing favs in the first three races and admitted that there will be few opportunities. Lets flip that round – what you have implied is that there are more meetings than not where there IS a winning fav in the first three – so why on earth dont you trust your staking system and bet on the first three races instead – lots more winning opportunities??!! The reason – because that idea has already been tried to death and fails. This is the same system but with a delay and a cap on the losing stake – better than the original ‘stop at a winner’ ‘double up’ system, but still flawed.
but ahhh you say…what about statistics….what about favs winning 33% of the time…..
2. Statistics<br>I understand why there is a common misconception that 33% favs winning means that if you have 3 losers on the bounce you MUST have a winner in the next three – rubbish. If you think about what you are saying – you are grouping favourites together in clumps of 6 arbitrarily thrown together because they occur in the same place on the same day (eg a meeting). Do you think the 6 favourite nags get together and bagsy which two are going to be the winners that day – of course not – the 4th fav has no more knowledge of the previous race than the 5th or 6th – they just go out there and run. You only have to look at the 100,000 or so races run to see that grouping 6 together on a card is arbitrary and without any sound rationale. Losing runs occur, some quite long others short, you dont know how or when or why but they just do – 33% is based on countless 000’s of races – not just 6. You must accept that coin tosses are a good analogy – toss a coin 10,000 times and you will get about 50% of each but you cant say just because you got a head last time you will get a tail the next.
If statistics were that predictable England cricket captains wouldnt lose the toss 9 times out of 10!
3. System Principles<br>There are none. The system is not based on any sound principle related to the event itself, namely horse racing. For a system to have even a chance of working it has to have a sound logic behind – this just doesnt.
I could go on but I think I have said enough. This system may appear to work on first inspection – but in the long run it will prove to be a dud. If you want to back unnamed favs pack up this thread and join Matrons first favourite system.
HELLO TTTRACING.
A VERY BAD START I ADMIT.<br>JUST KEEP CHECKING MY RESULTS POST OVER A PERIOD.
I WOULD NOT DREAM OF BACKING THE FIRST 3 RACES AS YOU SUGGEST,THAT WOULD BE SUICIDAL.THERE ARE AROUND 4500 RACES PER SEASON,THAT WOULD MEAN I WOULD BE BACKING 2250 RACES OR 50% OF ALL RACES RUN.AND AS YOU HAVE STATED,THAT TACTIC HAS ALREADY BEEN TRIED AND FAILED.DO YOU NOT THINK I HAVE RESEARCHED ALL THE PAST DATA BEFORE I PUT DOWN MY MONEY,AND PUT UP A SYSTEM ON THIS FORUM.I WAN’T EVERYONE TO WIN AS WELL AS MYSELF,THAT IS WHY I JOINED THIS FORUM.I SEE THAT YOU ARE A NEW MEMBER,AND YOUR SUGGESTIONS ARE ALWAYS WELCOME GOOD OR BAD,THAT IS WHY WE ARE ALL HERE IN THE FIRST PLACE,TO HELP EACH OTHER.BEFOR I WOULD CONDEM ANYONE ON THIS FORUM,I WOULD ALWAYS CHECK A PERSONS SYSTEM,BY CHECKING BACK OVER THE FORM BOOK,ONLY TIME CAN TEST ANY SYSTEM.STATISTICS ALWAYS TELL ME ONE THING OR THE OTHER NAMELY,TO BET OR NOT TO BET.JUST BECAUSE THE FAVORITE LOSES THE FIRST 3 RACES,DOE’S NOT MEAN THAT THE FAVORITE IS GUARANTEED TO WIN ONE OF THE NEXT 3 RACES.IF THAT WAS A GUARANTEE I WOULD SELL EVERYTHING I OWN INCLUDING MY HOUSE,AND PUT IT ALL ONE THE NEXT 3 RACES.IT IS THE OVERALL PERCENTAGE THAT MAKES THE STATISTICS WORK.33% LOSEING FAVORITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK OUT AT 33% WINNING FAVORITES OVER A PERIOD.YOU ARE THE STATIISTICIAN WORK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF.
IF AS YOU SAY MY "SYSTEM" IS A DUD,THEN STAY AWAY FROM ANY DUD "SYSTEM".I WOULD NOT BACK A DUD "SYSTEM" EVEN WITH YOUR MONEY,LET ALONE MY OWN.
BUT YOU ARE WELCOME TO CHECK MY RESULTS POST ANYTIME YOU LIKE.
I KNOW WE GOT OFF TO A BAD START.<br>NOT MY FAULT,IT WAS THE STATISTICS FAULT.
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR RACING.
P.S.TTTRACING.
I GATHER FROM YOUR POST THAT YOU ARE NOT A NEW MEMBER AS YOU CLAIM.BECAUSE YOU STATE THAT YOU ARE NOT CALLING ME A DUD,BUT MY SYSTEM.YOU SEEM TO KNOW THAT I DO NOT LIKE BEING PERSONALLY INSULTED,HOW WOULD A NEW MEMBER KNOW THAT.
Winalot<br>
(Edited by william winalot at 12:47 am on Feb. 23, 2003)
HELLO BURLINGTON BERTIE.
WELL DONE YOU GOT A WINNER.
I AM DOWN A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OVER THE PAST 2 MEETINGS,BUT I THINK I WILL SURVIVE.<br>I HAD A WINNER ON THE 3RD MEETING 13/8,SO I GOT BACK  SOME OF MY LOSES,NOT ALL,BUT SOME.I WILL EVENTUALLY GET BACK ALL MY MY LOSES FOR THE FIRST 2 MEETINGS,WHY?>BECAUSE I HAVE PATIENCE.YOU DON’T HAVE TO START OFF BIG TO FOLLOW MY SYSTEM,START SMALL,GROW BIG,LIKE A TREE.
HOPE YOU HAVE MANY MORE WINNERS LIKE KENT 7/2.<br>I’LL STICK WITH MY FAVORITES.
GOOD LUCK.
Winalot.
HELLO JAR.
JUST BACK THE LAST 3 RACES ON THE CARD.<br>THERE IS NO NEED FOR GOING,SPEED,JOCKEY,TRAINER<br>ETC:YOU ARE BOUND TO GET LOSEING MEETINGS.BUT THIS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED BY WINNING MEETINGS OVER A PERIOD.JUST STICK WITH IT.YOU CAN NOT NARROW THE SYSTEM DOWN WITH STATISTICS,AS YOU WOULD ONLY BE BETTING ON THE RACES THAT THE STATISTICS SAY YOU SHOULD.AND IN BETWEEN YOU WOULD MISS WINNERS.AS I STATED THE STAKING SEQUENCE IS NOT THAT SEVERE.1+2+4=£7.00<br>HOW MANY ON THE FORUM COULD NOT AFFORD THIS SEQUENCE,WHETHER YOU BACK  £1.00 OR £100.00 IT IS STILL NOT THAT MUCH.I AM NOT SUGGESTING THAT EVERYONE START OFF BACKING £100.00 BETS.START OF SMALL AND BUILD UP YOUR BANK,IT IS ONLY AFTER A PERIOD OF TIME THAT YOUR BANK WILL INCREASE WHERE YOU WILL BE MAKEING GOOD MONEY.STICK WITH IT.I WOULD SUGGEST A STARTING BANK OF £210.00,AND WHEN YOU DOUBLE THIS BANK £420.00 YOUR STARTING SEQUENCE WOULD BE 2+4+8.ANYTHING LESS THAN DOUBLE YOUR BANK REVERT TO 1+2+4.SO YOUR SEQUENCE WOULD BE.
£210.00 1+2+4<br>£420.00 2+4+8 <br>£840.00 4+8+16 SO FORTH.
THIS WOULD KEEP YOUR BANK SAFE IN CASE OF A BAD LOSEING RUN.THEIR SHOULD’NT BE TO BAD OF A LOSEING RUN,BUT YOU CAN NEVER TELL AT THIS GAME.<br>AND IN THE CASE THAT YOU DID LOSE ALL YOUR BANK,YOU WOULD ONLY BE DOWN YOUR FIRST BANK WHICH WAS £210.00.I ONLY SAY THIS AS AN EXAMPLE.<br>AS YOUR BANK SHOULD INCREASE NOT DECREASE.HAVE PATIENCE AND STICK WITH IT.I WOULD’NT BE WASTEING YOUR TIME OR MY OWN IF I DID’NT THINK THE SYSTEM HAD NO MERIT TO IT,OR IN OTHER WORDS THE "SYSTEM" WAS A DUD.
GOOD LUCK.
Winalot
(Edited by william winalot at 12:42 am on Feb. 23, 2003)
Hi William,
I a new member (to forums in general) but I am not new to racing – I have over 20 years experience of winning and losing and I run a profitable tipping service that has been in profit every year for the last four that I have done it.
Regardless of ‘new’ or ‘old’ member I would never insult anyone personally – nobody likes insults, least of all me!
I stand by my comments regarding this system, my comments are based on rational thinking and statistics.<br>Reason 4.<br>The system is based more on the psychology of losing than the mechanics of winning. Waiting for losers before betting – weve all done that – and is based upon the misconception that the end of a losing run is predictable – nonsense! Limiting the number of meetings is good practice to limit your exposure but if this system works on one set of 3 favourites it will work on any. Limiting the escalating stakes also good practice but this is still a doubling up system.
I wish you well on this thread. The strength of forums is in the expressed oppinion of supporters and opposers of views enabling a debate. I personally think there are far too many lurkers – reading and not contributing – and far too many people willing to accept ideas without thought – again, good luck!
HELLO TTTRACING.
YOU STATE THAT IF MY SYSTEM WORKS ON ONE SET OF 3 FAVORITES,IT WILL WORK ON ANY 3 SETS.<br>NOT TRUE.MY SYSTEM HAS AROUND 100 BETS PER SEASON,OR 100 MEETINGS WHERE THE FAVORITE HAS NOT WON IN ONE OF THE FIRST 3 RACES.THAT WOULD MEAN THAT I WOULD HAVE 100 LOSEING MEETINGS,WHERE THE FAVORITE LOST IN THE FIRST 3 RACES.WITH A LOSE OF 700 POINTS.YOU WOULD HAVE TO BE OVER 700 POINTS AHEAD JUST TO SUSTAIN THESE LOSES.BY LIMITING MY BETS TO THE LAST 3 RACES,AFTER 3 LOSEING RACES.I ONLY HAVE AROUND 100 BETS ALL SEASON.WITH A LOSEING RUN OF JUST 4 MEETINGS SO FAR.THE OVERALL WINNING MEETINGS FAR OUTSHINE THE LOSEING MEETINGS,THEREBY MAKING UP FOR THE LOSEING MEETINGS.TRY THAT APPROCH WITH ANY 3 RACES YOU LIKE,AND YOU WILL ALWAYS END UP IN THE RED.IT IS NOT THE LOSEING FAVORITES THAT ARE PREDICTABLE,BUT THE OUTCOME OF THE LAST 3 RACES.i AM NOT SAYING THAT ONE OF THE LAST 3 RACES WILL BE WON BY THE FAVORITE JUST BECAUSE THE FIRST 3 RACES WERE NOT WON BY THE FAVORITE.WHAT I AM SAYING IS,THAT IF THE FIRST 3 RACES ARE NOT WON BY THE FAVORITE,THEN THE PERCENTAGE SHOULD BE IN MY FAVOR,THAT ONE OF THE FAVORITES WILL WIN ONE OF THE LAST 3 RACES.THIS IS A SOUND APPROCH TO MAKING YOUR BETTING PAYOFF.
TTFRACING.DO YOU POST YOUR RESULTS ON THE FORUM.<br>IF SO,PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHERE.
I AM NOT IN ANY COMPETITION WITH ANYONE ON THE FORUM,ALTHOUGH WE ALL PROBABLY LIKE TO SHOW OFF NOW AND THEN,IT IS PROBABLY AN EGO THING.
THE BETS OF LUCK TO YOU.
BACK AT 6:00 WITH THE RESULTS FOR TODAY,LETS HAVE TALK.
(Edited by william winalot at 4:10 pm on Feb. 23, 2003)
Hi William
I dont post my results because 1) I am new to this forum and 2) I only back May-October.
So, I will be posting May through October.
If you have any copies or access to copies of Smartroof (before its demise) you will note ‘ttt racing’ was a a very succesful service.
…by the way – why the bold CAPITALS, you can get your point across without…in text it is the equivalent of shouting…!!!;)
tttracing.
I DETECT JTS RACING SOMEWERE HERE.
SOME OF THE OLDER MEMBERS MAY RECALL THAT I LEFT THIS FORUM BECAUSE OF JTS’s INSULTS.
LETS NOT START THAT AGAIN.
IF BOLD LETTERS ARE EQUIVALENT TO SHOUTING.
THEN MAYBE I HAVE SOMETHING TO SHOUT ABOUT.
KEEP CHECKING MY RESULTS POST.
THAT I PUT UP FOR ALL TO SEE,I HAVE NOTING TO HIDE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM I WILL POST ON THE FORUM WILL BE AS FOLLOWS.
THE MORE LOSERS YOU HAVE THE MORE PROFIT YOU WILL MAKE.
FIGURE THAT ONE OUT.
AND IT IS GUARANTEED TO WIN.PROVIDING???
Winalot.
(Edited by william winalot at 8:26 pm on Feb. 23, 2003)
hello paul66
Will get back to this new system later.
Lets finish with the 3 races system first.
Lets get everyone into profit.
Winalot
(Edited by william winalot at 1:05 am on Feb. 24, 2003)
Hi William an interesting thread already and only 2 pages long! Good luck with this.
tttracing I must admit that normally I would be agreeing with you entirely regarding doubling up – particularly if we were discussing coin tosses, roulette etc but Williams system made me think a little deeper.
Your assertion about grouping races in to arbitrary groups of 6 is quite valid providing each was an identical event (ie coin toss or spin of a roulette wheel).<br>However because most meetings are made up of h’cap & non h’cap, maidens, hurdles & chases and so on, there is perhaps some merit in this particular grouping. If you have any doubt then ask yourself why the last race at each meeting has such a poor record for favs. If a meeting was an entirely arbitrary grouping then this would not be so.
Actually William that might be worth consideration if one of your meetings has 7 races then races 4,5 & 6 may provide better results.
Hi Snowman,<br>I think your comments are though provoking and if there is merit in this approach it has to involve Williams approach of waiting for a losing run – combined with hand picking the races to follow….
Hi William,
"I DETECT JTS RACING SOMEWERE HERE."
I dont know who JTS is and I have not been on these forums long enough to recall your previous exchanges with JTS. Do not tar me with any kind of previous spats you may have had with others.<br>I think you should re-read my mails….<br>There are no personal insults – only debate relating to the system – I think you are a little pre-occupied with what others think of you – please drop these repeated references to insults and the past – it just aint necessary – lets focus on the racing at hand.
Back to Snowmans point….<br>Rather than pick the first 6 races on the card, why not look across all cards for the day and put the 6 best races for favs together in time order and then monitor the first 3 results – if they all lose then jump in with the 1-2-4 staking plan…what do you think William?
Hello Snowman.
As with anything in racing,if you wait long enough,and stick with your plan,you will eventually back a winner.Even if you only back 20/1 shots,you will eventually back a 20/1 winner.But it might take you 25 bets before you back that 20/1 winner,puting you 4 points in the red.So you have to be selective in your betting approch to balance the odds in your favor.That is exactly what I try to achieve with my betting.As you can see from my RESULTS post,The system lost the very first 2 meetings,and we were down £14.00 or 14 points.If you had have started backing the favorite in the first race,and doubled up on the next 5 races,we would have been down £126.00 or 126 POINTS,just for the first 2 meetings alone.So you can see by being selective,you can save a substantial amount of money,and keep your Bank workable.This proves my theory,that the System can not work on any 3 sets of Favorites,as ttsracing sugests.Do you get my point.By waiting for the first 3 races to lose,you save £112.00 in the process.Even if the card has no winning Favorites,it will only cost you £7.00 or 7 points.
Await your Reply.
Good Luck.
Winalot
Can’t speak for William of course but at 1st glance that sounds as though it has a lot going for it tttr.
Er can a glance sound like anything?  DOH!!
William yes I get your point. My post was intended to defend your system slightly by pointing out that, as not all races are identical, then a race meeting made up of various types of races is not as arbitrary grouping as say just 6 coin tosses would be.
Can I ask William do you stop at a winner?
(Edited by snowman at 11:32 am on Feb. 24, 2003)
Hello ttsracing.
My apologies if I have insulted you in the wrong.<br>It is just that you have the same style or writing,and gramer as jts.You are quite right,we are here to discuss racing in general.Not to better one and other.I am not pre-occupied with what others think of me,I could’nt care less what anyone thinks of me,because I don’t know anyone on this forum personally,so why should I care what anyone on this forum thinks of me.It is when anyone on this forum including myself,are trying to help fellow racing enthusisst win at this very unpredictable game,and they are put down for their good efforts,that is when I feel hurt.Why is it when someone comes along with something worthwhile,everyone want’s to disprove that persons ability.I am know better than anyone else on this Forum,everyone who contributes to this Forum are doing their best to their ability,whether they have a winning strategy or a loseing one.The reason I joined this Forum,is because I love the competition,of course I would love my system to make the biggest amount of profit on the forum.It is like having a bet,we all wan’t to back the winner.There would be no trill if we did’t.It is the same with everyone on the Forum,including myself.It is the Mine is Bigger than yours theory.
So Again please accept my apology.
Good Luck.
Winalot.
Hello Snowman.
Yes.just back the LAST 3 RACES ONLY.<br>1+2+4 Stop At A winner.<br>No following up.
P.S>I am only including British racing in my Results.<br>Actually the System works even better here in Ireland.<br>For anyones information<br>IRISH RACING RARELY SEES THE FAVORITE NOT WINNING AT LEAST ONE RACE ON THE CARD.
THIS AS BEEN SO FOR YEARS.
CHECK IT OUT IF YOU HAVE ANY FORM BOOKS,OR YOU CAN CHECK IT OUT ON THE INTERNET,PAST RESULTS SECTION.
HOPE THIS HELPS ANYONE.
RACING CAN PAY,WITH THE RIGHT LOGICAL APPROCH.
I have to go out now.Back Later.
<br>Good Luck To All
Winalot.
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