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This is one of my favourite races and very good for trends!
Without knowing Mr Henderson’s running plans I am slightly snookered as I believe he holds the key!
My outsider ran in the race last year but has had a quieter run up this season so I am hoping Foxcub could go close at nice odds of 28/1.
My main bet though is Dawalan who hits numerous trends and has looked good winning but also in defeat and at 10/1 looks good value, thoughts?
Dawalan is probably done winning for the time being now raised to a mark of 140.
I fancy some more Lizzie Kelly magic with
Tea For Two
, who is at least as good as the horse he beat at the track earlier in the season – My Wigwam Or Yours. That horse now runs from the high 140s, while Tea For Two gets in here off 134 minus Lizzie’s valuable claim.
He’s a little gawky and won’t be as ‘point and shoot’ as Aubusson was for Lizzie, but at least she knows him well and has won at Kempton with him before.
Definitely Tea For Two, for me as well TYF.
I like him just ahead of
Warrantor
, and I want to say
Dell Arca
as well, but still not sure what to make of his run in The Long Walk.
This is one of my favourite races and very good for trends!
Without knowing Mr Henderson’s running plans I am slightly snookered as I believe he holds the key!
My outsider ran in the race last year but has had a quieter run up this season so I am hoping Foxcub could go close at nice odds of 28/1.
My main bet though is Dawalan who hits numerous trends and has looked good winning but also in defeat and at 10/1 looks good value, thoughts?
Geraghty down to ride Dawalan in the decs. Must have a massive chance. Taken some of the 9s.
I am heavily into
Warrantor
for this as long as the ground is soft.
He went off beaten favourite a couple of times on good ground before getting off the mark on softer going. His win last time was decent looking and the form has panned out OK with a couple of little winners and a second from the first handful of finishers subsequently.
Warrantor has looked like a stamina test will suit and this could just about be his ideal trip/going combination. He surely has more to offer being so lightly raced.
Tea For Two sort of jumps out of the card at you on first glance, due to the consistent profile, and along with Dawalan will have followers.
For some reason I don’t fancy Dawalan, probably it’s the worry if this trip/ground together is what he really needs to be at his best.
Hello George is tipped by ATR’s Gary Nutting and I made a note of that horse myself last time, because he ran well to finish 6th in The Ladbroke at Ascot. He faced horses there of a level most of his rivals in this race haven’t faced in the build up to this. Five furlongs further and possibly softer ground here are enough for me to by-pass him, as 17 furlongs is the furthest he has competed over so far. Gary reckons he’s bred to suit Saturday’s trip but until they do it you don’t know and you have to ask why he hasn’t tried further before.
Warrantor
for me, with Tea For Two feared most.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hello George is a massive danger to Tea For Two in my view. I can’t see how the step up in trip can be any sort of problem for the Hobbs horse when you look at his pedigree. In fact, it’s a miracle that he has done so well at two miles when he is such a staying chaser in the books!
He’s closely related to World Hurdle winner Shuil Ar Arghaidh, marathon chaser Bob Ar Arghaidh and all the other Arghaidh horses.
Hello George is a massive danger to Tea For Two in my view. I can’t see how the step up in trip can be any sort of problem for the Hobbs horse when you look at his pedigree. In fact, it’s a miracle that he has done so well at two miles when he is such a staying chaser in the books!
He’s closely related to World Hurdle winner Shuil Ar Arghaidh, marathon chaser Bob Ar Arghaidh and all the other Arghaidh horses.
I thought Hello George ran a great race considering the quality of horses he faced last time, particularly after being beaten at odds on in a modest Exeter race previously.
An extra half mile is always a concern for me when considering a bet and although he may well get 3 miles, let alone 2m 5f, it’s just my own personal preference to wait until it’s been done, rather than take it as read that stamina is there.
In the end it comes down to value for me and, at as low as 6/1, I feel Hello George is now priced as if he’s already won at the trip and that is not value in my mind.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m pretty sure I’ll go for a decent each-way punt on Saffron Wells at 14/1 with Bet365 at the moment.
Neil King’s horses are going quietly well at the moment. Horses sent out since 13th December have run to the following places: 1 1 5 2 2 2 4 1 6 5 4 5 2 3 3 2 3 4 3 5 1 1.
I have seen this horse a few times without ever having backed him before. Last time out I was impressed with the way he traveled at Newbury before finishing a bit one-paced after the last to go down by 2 1/4 to the well handicapped Pomalco and the classy Morito Du Berlais. Likewise, he didn’t run badly first time up when finding 3 miles a bit too far at Aintree on ground better than he would have liked. He’s still lightly raced with only 7 runs over hurdles and never being outside the first 4. His best run to date came when 2nd in a Grade 3 Novice’s Handicap over the distance at Sandown last March. He ran off a mark of 126 and had the likes of Doctor Harper, Brother Brian and Ceasar Milan in behind that day. He’ll relish the likely soft conditions and while I’m not saying he’s a likely winner against improving opposition, he seems to have a massive chance of being in the frame of a nice racing weight of 10st 6ib. Hopefully Leighton Aspell can ride. He’s been put up 1 pound to 135 for that run.
I might have a win bet on Hammersly Lake. He looks to have plenty of potential and the trip and course should suit. He could prove to be badly handicapped but not as badly as Kilcooly is of 155. 9/1 looks fair to me given Geraghty’s sided with Dawalan.
Lac Fontana doesn’t go, so back to Plan A for me, and I’ll be with Tea For Two, and Warrantor.
As ever when you narrow it down to two and pick just one, the other one wins.
Absolutely hosed in Tea For Two and looks to be going somewhere.
Hello George ran a puzzling sort of race and I wouldn’t put it down to the trip. Warrantor seemed to travel well but if any horse didn’t stay today it seemed to be him. He’s a bit small and lacks physical scope to my eyes. I would steer clear of him in the future based on this poor effort.
Well Done Tea For Two backers, there was never a moment of concern today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I suppose Tea for Two was well handicapped eh?
Never mind, Saffron Wells ran how I thought for me to collect a decent place return. In hindsight I should have put him in an each-way double with Vandross up at Warwick, who I also backed at 25s. Neil King’s pair did me well today.
Excellent stuff from
Tea For Two
, very nice work. The positive thing for the future is that he seems to have shaken off a lot of his quirky ways, which were probably just greenness.
With his size, ability and cruising speed, he should grow to be a seriously good chaser.
There were all sorts of interesting performances in behind too.
Ballybough Pat
moved well first time up after a year off and
Little Boy Boru
sliced through the pack from miles out of the weights in a way that would be pretty deadly in a lower grade that the Lanzarote.
Heath Hunter
was given a very poor ride and I’m sure David Pipe will be going ballistic at Kieron Edgar for that one.
Hello George
ran a very strange race, almost as if he has a little temperament. Like Champagne Fever and Al Ferof, it must be hard for a horse who is basically bred to be a stayer to actually settle down at longer trips after being rustled up and made buzzy enough to compete in races like the Ladbroke.
Hello George
ran a very strange race, almost as if he has a little temperament.
Jim McGrath said before the race that the sire, Westerner, was a quirky horse and some of his offspring have shared the same trait.
Hello George was a bit lively going down and the commentary team reckoned he’d have to settle well to be competitive today.
He came under pressure from a fair way out but he kept on quite well, without ever really looking like he would make the frame.
Warrantor’s stable companion Shantou Bob was a bitter disappointment shortly afterwards, when warm favourite, and a quick check showed that the stable were 0 for 22 with their horses this month, with some of them seriously down the field.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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