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Bourne is an interesting runner in this. Won gutsily last time at Kempton beating the useful Dildar showing his well being and should have the ammunition to perform well in a competitive race such as this having won a nice handicap last year when accounting for Smad Place. Capt Sunshine is another to consider who also has course form to his name.
The wonderfully bred Un Bon P’Tit Gars or Dursey Sound at the moment
Bears Affair could go in again if De Bonneville rides it and takes some weight off.
Bourne was thought good enough by Cumani to go for the Melbourne Cup, wasn’t he, Rich? Though I believe he didn’t go in the end for some reason.
I’m on Bear’s Affair, but I’ll perhaps have zummit on Bourne as well. I expect the longer distance than his last race will suit him better too.
But I’ve just spotted Araldur, who seems very well-weighted, especially on his collateral form with Free Gift. And Ladbrokes seem to think so too, pricing him as second favourite at 8s.
They’re at the head of the market, but Bear’s Affair, and Un Bon P’tit Gars, and have very obvious chances.
You couldn’t fail to be impressed with Bears last time out, and he looks like a horse who’s profile could continue to rise significantly over the coming months. Very interesting horse.
Un Bon hasn’t done anything wrong either, and his trainers runners in this race are always going to be of interest, this one looks as if he’ll be on a nice mark come Saturday.
One at a bigger price is
Brampour
. Nicholls horses don’t always fire fully at this time of year, but he’s ran some very nice races in his time, and at 25’s, he could just surprise a few. He might not win it, but he looks a fairly solid ew prospect to me a the moment. 25’s with the sponsors.
Yes I think he was earmarked for the Melbourne Cup, never quite hit those dizzy heights on the flat though. I recall him being a big favourite for the Martin Pipe at the festival last year only to finish a disappointing 9th, but I think he has a good chance in this.
Bear’s Affair is certainly improving at a rate of knotts but as a result is creeping up the handicap as a result, looks sure to be involved however as he won as he liked last time at Ascot even if it wasn’t the most competitive of races.
You can get Araldur at 12/1 with a few bookies currently, he also won in determined fashion LTO and Amigo has since franked the form, could be another to consider.
Looks a decent race, not sure what the forecast is for the South East in the coming days (getting cooler but with chance of rain?).
Rich: coming back from chasing has made Aruldar and he is my Ew selection at 14s
This tempers enthusiasm a bit, or maybe just a smokescreen? You never know with King these days:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news … ur-caution
Bourne still for me.
If it’s a strong pace
Black Thunder
and
Buck Magic
have good chances. But I can only find three that actually like being up there and two of them don’t always race from the front. Black Thunder is usually held up and Harry Derham (a promising young jockey) can be a little too confident at times riding this type in big handicaps. Buck Magic may need a test of stamina at this trip so a slowish pace may not suit him either.
I’ve made those two savers and backed
Loose Chips
and
Araldur
as main bets, as they are likely to be at or nearer the pace, particularly Loose Chips who’s already been successful twice making all around Kempton and still improving. Araldur has gone up a fair bit since his win at Sandown, but is still well handicapped in this sphere judged by chase form. Have an inkling he’s best going right-handed too.
The other one who does well when racing prominently is
Son Of Flicka
. On the face of it looks well out of form at the moment, but ridden "patiently" of late which he does not seem to enjoy. Great record at the Cheltenham Festival (2nd and winner last 2 years) and may be connections are eyeing March. If they thought he’d come down in the handicap must be extremely disappointed so far. However, IF there’s a late market move today, TAKE NOTICE (Woolfie/Prof
)! If no market move, leave him alone.Value Is EverythingIf it’s a strong pace
Black Thunder
and
Buck Magic
have good chances. But I can only find three that actually like being up there and two of them don’t always race from the front. Black Thunder is usually held up and Harry Derham (a promising young jockey) can be a little too confident at times riding this type in big handicaps. Buck Magic may need a test of stamina at this trip so a slowish pace may not suit him either.
I’ve made those two savers and backed
Loose Chips
and
Araldur
as main bets, as they are likely to be at or nearer the pace, particularly Loose Chips who’s already been successful twice making all around Kempton and still improving. Araldur has gone up a fair bit since his win at Sandown, but is still well handicapped in this sphere judged by chase form. Have an inkling he’s best going right-handed too.
The other one who does well when racing prominently is
Son Of Flicka
. On the face of it looks well out of form at the moment, but ridden "patiently" of late which he does not seem to enjoy. Great record at the Cheltenham Festival (2nd and winner last 2 years) and may be connections are eyeing March. If they thought he’d come down in the handicap must be extremely disappointed so far. However, IF there’s a late market move today, TAKE NOTICE (Woolfie/Prof
)! If no market move, leave him alone.Funny you mention Son of Flicka, this fellow has become a bit of a legend in my hometown of Wrexham, where the owner/syndicate are based. ‘Flicka’ is the nickname of an ex Wales football player Graham Williams, and the horse was named after his son, Phil, and the family are known to be quite keen gamblers. So when the plunge came at Cheltenham last year it was sure to be them who started it, and it seemed that everyone in the town were on…I’m not close to connections, so not sure if the horse is ready to strike today, but as you say if there is a bit of a market move then be sure to have a few quid on!
Cracking stuff from the top team. Think the form of the race will prove ultimately poor and the handicapper shouldn’t be too hard on Oscara Dara but he was trained to the second today.
I’d expect Oscara Dara to go up quite a bit Mark; as he’s a lot better than winning distances suggest. Lost all momentum at the last but recovered to go away with relative ease. Wouldn’t surprise me if he defied a 10 lb rise, so well he travelled.
Third should also go on from this. Buck Magic could’ve done with a greater test and seems sure to improve upped in trip.
Value Is Everything
)! If no market move, leave him alone.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.