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I’ve kept the faith with the two I backed in the Greatwood, Clondaw Warrior and Baradari. Baradari is still 25/1 with Betvictor which looks worth a punt. I’m always willing to forgive a horse a poor run and I believe there is a decent handicap in this one. Clondaw Warrior was inconvenienced by the slow pace at Cheltenham last time so hopefully they’ll go a better gallop here. I think he’s still well handicapped off a six pound higher mark but I have some concerns. The ground may turn a bit soft for him but I managed to get a tenner on at 12/1 on the machine yesterday which will do for me.
Looks promising for ante post each way as there appear to be a fair number of non-runners and no-hopers. So you may get 1/4 odds first 4 on a 12 runner race – if you can be sure your horse will run.
Took a chance on
Jebril
at a price, up to 95’s. He’s not really achieved that much, but seen enough of him to think he’ll pop up in a race like this soon. Liked his run at Ascot a few weeks back, and he’ll have a decent weight.
I’ll probably add
Gassin Golf
to chase him home.
Some fascinating and off-the-wall entries here. Hello George, bred to be a staying chaser, must be the most bizarre – which means he’s certain to win and make me look silly now!
Balgarry, Goodwood Mirage and Activial are all certainly well handicapped and Shelford’s wins over Emerging Talent and Aubusson represent very strong form. I don’t think I’ll have a bet here as it seems easy to pick a ‘live one’ and still see it finish out of the frame!
If it wasn’t for the fact that Shelford was taking a half mile drop in trip, I would see him as a good thing here.
To my eyes his win from Aubusson was a good bit of form and provided they go a good gallop, hopefully his stamina will become an asset, rather than a hindrance. I think he’s feasibly handicapped and has a fitness advantage over the younger favourite Activial.
The stable did me a favour last year winning it with Willow’s Saviour, a very similarly profiled horse who had also been competing over further than two miles previously.
I’m confident of a big show and I would make him favourite here if forming a book.
6/1 would do me fine, win only of course.
Shelford
how can a horse named half petrol company, half car ever lose? Keep an eye out for Essofiat when he runs
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m going to take a chance on Gassin Golf. Has been running with consistency and has a low weight. Worth an E/W tipple at 18’s.
The last 8 winners had an Official Rating in the range 127-144
4 are outside this range leaving 15.The last 7 winners had all finished in the first 4 last time out, that takes out a further 8 leaving 7…
Goodwood Mirage 142 + 1st
Foxcub 139 + 1st
Shekford 134 + 1st
Pyromaniac 134 + 3rd
Gassin Golf 132 + 2nd
Hello George 129 + 3rd
Clondaw Warrior 127 + 3rdThat leaves 7 to look at, but there are 2 more trends that I have noticed…
The last 8 winners had all previouslz won over the same distance, if applied that takes out…
Shelford
Pyromaniac
Gassin GolfThe last 8 winners had already won a Hurdles race, this takes out Clondaw Warrior and leaves…
Goodwood Mirage 16/1 – brought down in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival this year. Had a flat "prep" race in September and then won a Class 3 handicap at Wetherby. Lightning Rod (2nd that day) has won both his races since then.
Foxcub 40/1 – Won a Class 2 handicap at Bangor last time out but that and the previous 8 races have all been around the 2½ mile mark and I think this might be a bit too short for him with just 1 win from 5 runs over 2 miles and no places.
Hello George 12/1 – Has always been in the first 3 but not raced in company higher than a Class 3 Novice race. A poor run last time out and this will be a stiff gallop and probably too much for this youngster.
Goodwood Mirage for me and although he didn’t make the final list, I will also have a small interest in Shelford.
Good luck !!
Fascinating race. I had Activial down as potentially very good last season. He hurdled very well at Kempton winning the Adonis and has a very distinctive high knee action. I’ll back him.
Foxcub was tried with new tactics last time – making all – and won by 7 lengths. Might have been a fluke but slight chance it’s made a difference to him and he seems very big at 110 on Betfair, so I took a bit of that.
Cool Macavity’s big too at 33 with Coral, and worth a wee bet.
For reasons I cannot explain I’m strongly drawn to Hello George, so I’ve had one of those impulse bets.
So 4 of them so far….and there’s HOURS to go till the race
Having been to Galway and witnessing the competitive nature of the handicaps there I cant help having a lump on Bayan.
Second to Thomas Edison who would had liked the summer going more than G Elliott’s horse in the most competitive handicap there is over timber The Galway Hurdle. Out with the washing many recent winners like Plinth Parlour Games and Purple Bay who’d have had no excuses with the going. The latter upsides Irving when he fell.
I missed 12’s this afternoon while I checked out the video now 8/1
Just added Minellaforleisure at 100 – very tender handling last time at Newbury.
5 down, 14 to go!
A belter of a classy handicap. Actival is an obvious serious contender with solid form and is open to no amount of improvement. He may bolt in here. but in a very good 19 runner handicap I’m not sure I want to take 5/1.
Shelford comes into the same sort of category, shown solid form with two good wins at Chepstow, and raised 7lbs which might not hinder him. If it came up very soft his stamina, having won over further, would make him very appealing but it looks like it will stay dry at this stage, and not be worse than soft. Again, 6/1 in a field like this isn’t too appealing, although it will look big enough if he hoses in.
I’m having a go on Pine Creek, who I think ran a better race than his finishing position (7th) in this last year suggests. He was ridden very confidently out the back for most of the race, and made easy ground when there was a faller and some trouble around him 3 or 4 out, he switched and found himself running on his own on the far side before joining the group and running on without ever looking like getting there. I think once he had lost his chance a couple out, Denis O’Regan was easy on him.
As I said, they way he was confidently ridden early on gives me the impression they really fancied him for the race, and after it didn’t fall right I think this has been the plan. He either was put away after that, or had a problem, and was brought out and given a good prep in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November, where he finished a very respectable 5th, having tired at the finish. He was entitled to need that run and I think he will be spot on for this. I managed to get the last of the 20s with Hills last night, before his price started contracting. You can still get 16s and I consider that an absolute steal e/w the 1st 5 runners. I think he ticks all the boxes and the support suggests that the stable does too.
Good luck
Took a chance on
Jebril
at a price, up to 95’s. He’s not really achieved that much, but seen enough of him to think he’ll pop up in a race like this soon. Liked his run at Ascot a few weeks back, and he’ll have a decent weight.
I’ll probably add
Gassin Golf
to chase him home.
Like Jebril aswell. Jumping and experience a big question mark but he is a sporting price. I think Activial deserves his status.
SHL
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