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Judging by Racing Post statistics: There is quite a big difference between Roert Thornton’s Chase and Hurdles strike rates this season, not quite as much over 5 seasons.
This year the £ stake is a little worse for chases too. But the difference is only the amount of one 5/1 winner. So not much in it. However, the 5 year £ stake shows a different trend…
Punters only backing
all chasers
would’ve lost
far less
than those only backing all hurdlers.
This tends to suggest Robert is getting on better hurdlers than he is chasers these days…
Or, punters are over-compensating. Concentrating on Thornton’s rides over hurdles, so enabling his mounts over the larger obstacles to go off at better prices than the hurdlers…
Either way, statistics show it would be wrong for punters to favour Robert’s rides over hurdles.
Value Is EverythingI don’t doubt Alan King’s ability as a trainer, he quite simply doesn’t have very many well handicapped horses nor does he have the same calibre of horses as the likes of Nicholls & Henderson, so in reality, he’s stuck behind a rock and a hard place.
Regardless, I do agree that a change of No.1 stable jockey is in order, unfortunately, ‘Choc’ just isn’t as good as he used to be, he’s become very predictable and is almost a sitting duck for other jockeys to breeze past.
Wayne is a superb jockey in my opinion, I’m yet to see him ride giving anything less than his best. It must be frustrating at best for him and I’m sure even his loyalty to Barbury is beginning to be tested.
A recent article in the RP indicated that he was no longer trying to keep up with Nicholls etc, and perhaps he has not quite reestablished himself in the niche he wants.
Would agree with other posters regarding ‘Choc’, he certainly wouldn’t be my first choice of jockey if I had a horse, but perhaps more important am aware this view is shared by some people who do own horses. It cannot help the King yard attract major owners if there are doubts around the stable jockey.
I can’t work him out sometimes. Seems a nice chap but as others have said his top horses don’t seem to last many seasons – Voy Pur, My Way de Solzen, Katchit …
Anyone visited his yard and picked-up any vibe?
Penzance, Halcon Generladais, Blazing Bailey and many others. Get to 8 or 9 and then it’s Pulled Ups and no shows.
I think this is tied in with King having more runners on the flat than any other top jumps trainer.
The cross comparison of hurdles and chase achievements to determine the superior riding preference or ability of one code over the other is probably the most absurd things I’ve ever read on here.
In my view there are some interesting stats about this yard and the jockeys.
Regarding the King yard, comparing the winning percentages of hurdlers and chasers
Over King’s career it is;
Hurdlers 15.9%
Chasers 17.6%This year though it is ;
Hurdlers 17.9%
Chasers 11.2%In other words it would appear at first glance that the yard is getting slightly better with hurdlers, but worse with chasers. Whether that is a yard issue, or a jockey issue, I don’t know.
Comparing statistics overall for the yard, comparing Thornton to Hutchinson is also interesting.
Over King’s career ;
Thornton has a winning percentage of 17.6%
Hutchinson is at 16.4%.This year though ;
Thornton is 14.4%
Hutchinson is 23.1%A pretty uncompromising use of statistics there Coggy! you’re assumptions are meaningless in the realms of reliability or validity in providing a significant construct now that’s not to say I don’t appreciate you making the effort as it’s encouraging to see people do their research to further strengthen their posts through association of relevant information.
There’s multiple reasons why King has seen a 6.7% reduction in Chase wins or why there is a 2% increase in Hurdle wins but I wouldn’t be so sure it’s down to his ability to train one better than the other.
A pretty uncompromising use of statistics there Coggy! you’re assumptions are meaningless in the realms of reliability or validity in providing a significant construct now that’s not to say I don’t appreciate you making the effort as it’s encouraging to see people do their research to further strengthen their posts through association of relevant information.
There’s multiple reasons why King has seen a 6.7% reduction in Chase wins or why there is a 2% increase in Hurdle wins but I wouldn’t be so sure it’s down to his ability to train one better than the other.
Me neither Molehorse.
Just giving the stats.
Any views from anyone ?Glad i’ve seen this thread as I’ve been thinking the same for a while now. And what a waste of two pages in the Weekender.
Thornton was abysmal on HOJ at Ascot. You could see a long way out he was unlikely to finish.
I was quite shocked when i checked the jockey stats to see how few winners Hutch had on the board this season. He had a golden spell last winter banging in several big saturday winners – as soon as Choc returned, the yard stagnated.
King should have recognised this and done the right thing at the end of last season.
I think it’s safe to say it’ll be another blank Cheltenham for Barbury.Surely the obvious conclusion to draw from the up-shift in his hurdling strike rate and the simultaneous drop in his chasing strike-rate is that he simply doesn’t have the chasers in the yard he once did?
A tally of 2 winners from 31 Class 1 chase runners in 2012 compares unfavourably with 2006 (6/25), 2007 (6/31), 2008 (3/43), 2009 (4/37) and 2011 (5/32).
He just doesn’t have the ammunition to compete over fences.
Just a thought.
It all boils down to how much owner buying power is in the yard. You don’t hear of many top lots being knocked down to A. Kings yard. Highflyer buy for King, Nicholls and Henderson, the latter must have higher spenders in the yard.
Had injuries as well sadly INVICTUIS and BATTIONIER not out this season so that has been a big blow to this tranier too.
It all boils down to how much owner buying power is in the yard. You don’t hear of many top lots being knocked down to A. Kings yard. Highflyer buy for King, Nicholls and Henderson, the latter must have higher spenders in the yard.
Wealth follows success of the yard. Which comes first, Chicken or Egg? If the wealthy owners believed King was top dog, they’d have their horses in the yard.
Juvenile Hurdle won by Seventh Sign at Newbury today somewhat encapsulates the problem Thornton seems to have all too often. Yes, it was his first time jumping, and yes bad jumpers to exist, but it’s a common theme ; horses under Thornton jump horrendously. I’m convinced more than ever now that Thornton may have cost Montbazon victory in the Supreme.
I’d imagine it is only natural that seasonally the % strike rate with both hurdlers and chasers will fluctuate on seasons past.
Just because a certain figure is the average doesn’t mean he gets those exact same figures every year.
Taken from King’s site:
It has been and up-and-down January for Barbury, with a series of injuries taking the gloss of what has been a good start to the New Year.
Our Champion Hurdler Katchit had to be put down last week after a severe bout of colic, and Lidar suffered a freak injury – "I have only seen four similar in 25 years," related Alan, who, however has not given up hope that Lidar might return next season.
And if those setbacks were not bad enough another one of Alan’s promising horses suffered a bad pelvic injury on Tuesday morning – Lady Luck, where are you ?
I wonder who the latest one to be injured is?
Juvenile Hurdle won by Seventh Sign at Newbury today somewhat encapsulates the problem Thornton seems to have all too often. Yes, it was his first time jumping, and yes bad jumpers to exist, but it’s a common theme ; horses under Thornton jump horrendously. I’m convinced more than ever now that Thornton may have cost Montbazon victory in the Supreme.
You clearly don’t watch Richard Johnson then.
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