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Simonsig is definitely out of the race now and a drift from 5/1 to double those odds told its own story.
Somehow the layers seem to know these things and it’s best to ignore the crap that comes out of some people’s mouths.
Simonsig is in my Ten To Follow, so that’s the kiss of death for a start. I didn’t think he had any chance of winning first time up against horses of that calibre, some of whom are proven at the trip and track.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Simonsig doesn’t race this season and he’s coming out of my Ten To Follow as soon as the transfer window opens.
That should be the cue for everyone else to back him for every race possible
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
No Riches as Road To Riches isn’t in the ten left in the race now.
That’s ante-post racing for you and it’ll just be a race to watch for me now. In retrospect I should have taken my own advice and piled in on Silviniaco when he was 5/1 jt fav with Simonsig.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Silv Conti is the sole nailed on stayer in the field, in a race which is much more of a test than many believe.
The only potential value I can see is Dynaste at 8s
I’d quite fancied Menorah for this but the horse seems to be hit and miss in the jumping department and the only time Richard Johnson didn’t take the ride over the jumps the horse fell.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
4 trends that I think point to the only 3 with a realistic chance of winning…
The last 15 winners had all previously won a Grade 1 race (Long Run 2010 included in this list with a Novice Grade 1 win and also a 4yo Grade 1 win in France).
The last 10 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.
The last 9 winners had already won a Chase over the same distance.
The last 8 winners had an Official Rating of 162 or higher.This leaves…
Silviniaco Conti 5/2 (top 3 – yes)
Al Ferof 6/1 (top 3 – probably)
Dynaste 8/1 (top 3 – maybe)Good luck !!
Silv Conti is the sole nailed on stayer in the field, in a race which is much more of a test than many believe.
The only potential value I can see is Dynaste at 8s
Joe, I’m with you on Dynaste being a horse with the potential to be anything, including, in my opinion, a Gold Cup Contender. I’ve always thought he looked a Cheltenham horse, and the way he won the Ryanair earlier this year confirmed it. He ran a cracker in the Betfred Bowl at Aintree after that and wasn’t put to shame going down to Silviniaco Conti.
He again ran a decent race in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on his first run out this season behind SC and Menorah, who had both had the benefit of a run in the Charlie hall. He looked like he needed the race and I think he will be better for it. He must be there or thereabouts for this this year.
I know you have deserted your old pal Cue Card, but I’m not sure it’s the time to write him off just yet. I can’t explain what happened last year, because I have no doubts he gets the 3m of the King George. It was heart breaking to see him give away a race that he looked certain to win right up to the last. Maybe he wasn’t quite 100%, I don’t know. Forget his 1st run back in the Haldon at Exeter, it’s too short for him and he badly needed the race. Having watched the race again, I don’t see the head carriage problem you mentioned at the start of this thread, although he does look about a bit perhaps half way through the race. Again I think he looked like he needed the race a little. He has taken the same route that he has for the last two years prior to the King George, and I have no doubt he was being primed for this. Perhaps he might be 100% this time in which case I think he has an outstanding chance.
In fact I think that both Dynaste and Cue Card could win this, and if either of them do, I think it will be all guns brazing for the Gold Cup. With this in mind I couldn’t resist taking Ladbrokes offer of 125/1 for the KG and GC for both. I tried having £20 on each but was only allowed £11.25, which would still net over £1400 on either. I’ve wasted 11 quid in worse ways before.That bet is still available and is way better than anyone else is offering for the double.
This looks a cracking race.
Good luck to all and a happy, and profitable, Christmas
BigG, thanks. I won’t be backing Cue Card, though there’s that place in my heart where I’d still like to see him show them all what he’s made of. Favourite horse or not, though, I need to bet on logic, and I believe something happened to him in this race last year, to the bottom of which, they have not got (to mangle a phrase).
Connections say they might well drop him in this time, which should add interest. I’d always thought him best out on his own as he seems easily distracted at fences. Also, if they don’t make it, I suspect Champ Fever will be left with that job, and, if so, he’ll be ridden to conserve energy, and we might well get a slowish pace.
If the pace isn’t tough, that disadvantages Silv Conti imo and he could struggle for toe. It would give the potential non-stayers a strong chance, and I think Dynaste could be best served of all. I’m not convinced he’s an out and out stayer, but at 8s, I think he still represents the best value, and if the pace goes his way, he’ll be very hard to keep out of the places.
Good luck. Happy Christmas. Don’t forget to have a fiver on Purple Bay to upset the hotpot, Faugheen!
Firstly, such a shame that Captain Chris isn’t fit. After swimming round bogs at Christmas for the last three years, the ground will have finally come right, but the poor bugger is injured. Done on the line by Long Run two years ago, he would have surely gone close this year.
I’ll be backing Menorah, anything around 8/1 is a stonking bet. Finally seems to have found some consistency with his jumping and again will benefit from the sound surface. With Cue Card, Champagne Fever et al forcing the pace, Menorah should be able to tank around in 4th or 5th and deliver a challenge turning for home.
If it rains then Conti will outstay them.
I’m on Menorah.
BigG, thanks. I won’t be backing Cue Card, though there’s that place in my heart where I’d still like to see him show them all what he’s made of. Favourite horse or not, though, I need to bet on logic, and I believe something happened to him in this race last year, to the bottom of which, they have not got (to mangle a phrase).
Connections say they might well drop him in this time, which should add interest. I’d always thought him best out on his own as he seems easily distracted at fences. Also, if they don’t make it, I suspect Champ Fever will be left with that job, and, if so, he’ll be ridden to conserve energy, and we might well get a slowish pace.
If the pace isn’t tough, that disadvantages Silv Conti imo and he could struggle for toe. It would give the potential non-stayers a strong chance, and I think Dynaste could be best served of all. I’m not convinced he’s an out and out stayer, but at 8s, I think he still represents the best value, and if the pace goes his way, he’ll be very hard to keep out of the places.
Good luck. Happy Christmas. Don’t forget to have a fiver on Purple Bay to upset the hotpot, Faugheen!
I can’t question your logic there Joe, I’ve maybe had a habit over the years of hanging onto horses for longer than I should, being eternally optimistic clearly doesn’t always pay off.
If I’m honest though, I wasn’t Cue Card’s biggest fan when you were banging the drum on his behalf. I kind of warmed to him as he showed how good he was prior to last years KG. A really genuine horse with a high cruising speed that suits something that bowls along in front. I will be surprised if connections do drop him in, I agree with you that he is best bowling along in front and don’t think he is as likely to win if they change his natural front running style. I’d be surprised if they go that way.
The omens are good for him on the market anyway, shortening generally, and as low as 5/1 with PP. Perhaps they have got to the bottom of whatever the problem was, you might just have your pal back for for the KG and Cheltenham. Now that would make both of our Christmas’s a happy one.
This year King George is a No-brainer for me and yet my horse never beats the fav so why am I so confident? Simple,
Menorah
is a different horse this season and the Fav had his ground at Haydock,on good ground ‘Silviniaco Conti’ wont be able to outstay Hobbsys horse.No, 3m round Kempton will suit ‘Menorah’ perfectly.I am a great one for needing a visual on all competitors and the race that controls this years outcome is the Betfair Chase at Haydock where Nicholls beat Hobbs,I saw enough that day that told me the places will be reversed on Friday.At the ridiculous odds of 8/1 about
Menorah
I just cant see past him.I can see ‘Wishfull Thinking’ scraping a place at 25/1 too.
Things are not looking good for Champagne Fever if the market is anything to go by. I had a little touch at 100/30 with Hills a few days ago when that was the standout best price (as low as 5/2). That looks a pretty skinny price now considering you can easily get 5/1. For a Mullin’s horse to be on the drift in this manner, it would indicate there is not too much stable confidence about him.
I’m much happier with my punt on Cue Card at 8/1 with Ladbrokes, generally 5s and 6’s now. The ground has come right for him and there is evident stable and connections positivity.
There have been better King George’s, but not one with so many with genuine claims to taking this. Fascinating stuff.
This year King George is a No-brainer for me and yet my horse never beats the fav so why am I so confident? Simple,
Menorah
is a different horse this season and the Fav had his ground at Haydock,on good ground ‘Silviniaco Conti’ wont be able to outstay Hobbsys horse.No, 3m round Kempton will suit ‘Menorah’ perfectly.I am a great one for needing a visual on all competitors and the race that controls this years outcome is the Betfair Chase at Haydock where Nicholls beat Hobbs,I saw enough that day that told me the places will be reversed on Friday.At the ridiculous odds of 8/1 about
Menorah
I just cant see past him.I can see ‘Wishfull Thinking’ scraping a place at 25/1 too.
With you TAPK. Took the 12s post Haydock and while I’ve also since backed Conti, I’ve had more on Menorah at 8/1.
Finally delivering.
Lee
As a few have mentioned, Menorah looks like the mug bet given that this year’s good form came when his yard were flying and others were short of fitness.
I find it hard to see Silviniaco Conti getting turned over if able to replicate last year’s effort. I won’t be having a bet, but would put up Al Ferof as the best alternative to the favourite. I find it hard to believe he doesn’t stay after his Paddy Power win, the manner of his Supreme win and his pedigree. The explanation for last year’s below-par efforts (stomach ulcers) makes plenty of sense now. His recent win at Ascot may even have been a career best given the form Wishfull Thinking has shown this season.
I won’t be having a bet, but would put up Al Ferof as the best alternative to the favourite.
In a way this is D-Day for Al Ferof. For me he’s been a horse of promise never truly fulfilled. If he had health problems that are now behind him, it should pave the way for him to now deliver at the top level.
The trouble is that he’s just a bit skinny in the betting, bearing in mind that he still has to reach the top table and because of the fact that there are another four horses sitting in the betting who hold near identical chances of toppling the reigning champ.
Cue Card could make mugs of us all today but he is the one of the "Kempton Five" who I am ruling out first. It’s hard to forget how he went from travelling like a Ferrari to a milk float in about two strides last year. A disappointing seasonal debut was followed by a reasonable effort in fourth behind three of today’s field in the Betfair but he was beaten a good way out in my opinion that day. Tactics are said to be being changed today and that adds an extra doubt for me.
Champagne Fever is going into uncharted waters at today’s trip. A former Arkle runner, he coped at two and a half miles on heavy ground at Clonmel but that was a race where he was odds on and with half a mile further and better opposition today his petrol tank may be running on fumes in the closing stages. I believe he is far too short in the betting and the Mullins/Walsh combination is more of a factor than his actual form.
Menorah has looked a better horse this season and seems just about at the top of his game the last couple of runs. I can see the case for believing the ground might not be as soft as the Silviniaco Conti camp might like and there isn’t that much between them based on their Betfair form. He was pulled up in the race last year though and there’s always the worry that one sticky jump may rattle his confidence. I just have a feeling that both Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste may have made more progress from the Betfair than Menorah and for that reason I would leave him out of it today.
Dynaste was third in that Betfair race which is the biggest looking relevant form line. Beaten a fair way that day but he was making his seasonal debut and should be near cherry ripe today. I feel he will reverse form with Menorah today and also get closer to today’s favourite. I feel he’s a solid each-way shout at 8/1 and would probably have had a bet but for the fact he was way below par in the race last season, based on other runs against the favourite. He has cheek-pieces on for the first time today but I am no expert in how these items of headgear work the oracle, or not, on horses. I expect him to be in the 1st three all things being equal.
For me it’s Silviniaco Conti to grind them down and win, with Dynaste chasing him home, Menorah is very marginally taken over Al Ferof for the third place, so long as his jumping holds together.
Good luck to everyone and have a good day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
No hard luck stories from me, the winner looked just that from a good way out.
Cue Card wasn’t allowed by SC to take a lead and bowl along, but I doubt it would have made any difference, SC looked impressive.Champagne Fever ran well enough, travelling well before he showed that he is better over shorter.
Dynaste ran a cracker. Leaves them with the problem of the Gold Cup or the Ryanair again. I’d chance the GC if I were Pipe.
He ran them into the ground.
As good as the winner is I cant have him for Cheltenham unless there is a wet March.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
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