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Bristol De Mai a crazy price at 12s for the Gold Cup
I suspect the king george might well be his race but can’t see him winning the gold cup… he just doesn’t appeal as the type to do well there
I can only see dry days coming up, i think id rather it stayed dry just so i can finally make my mind up on BDM
Plus thistlecrack wont mind that either
I’ve topped up my 33s for him for the Gold Cup (see Gold Cup thread) with the current 12s.
Agree with steeplechasing, that is a bonkers price.
If coming up soft or especially heavy at Kempton Bristol De Mai will look very good value at today’s 4/1 and as a result of his main rival having conditions to suit Might Bite will drift. But if the rain stays away good or good-soft will be against the Twiston-Davies horse’s chance. Although current betting seems to me priced more for good-soft and a drift (if any) will be less on BDM. Bristol’ improved when running away with the Betfair Chase, putting up a top class effort. But no other horse in the race showed their form and it would be wrong to get carried away. He’s no Kauto Star, at least not yet. Might Bite looked to be running away with the RSA before almost giving it away on the run-in; wandering badly. In the end just getting back up to beat stable companion Whisper on the line. On the day Might Bite was a lot better horse than distances suggest, but too much is probably being made of that because both horses have undoubtedly improved since. Signs of temperament as a novice seemingly replaced with a better attitude of late, even allowing another horse to lead him last time. Hopefully will do the same here, although wouldn’t want to see too many in front/around him; might not like being crowded. Jumping is an asset these days. Came down in the Kauto Star Novice this day last season with the race at his mercy and would’ve put up a time that compared well with Thistlecrack‘s King George. Might Bite has potential to improve again and should be favourite, whether he should be as short as 6/4? Not for me. If all stand their ground Fox Norton will also drift if soft/heavy, placing more emphasis on stamina. Form mainly as a 2 miler. Odds-on defeat last time out in the Tingle Creek, Possibly frightened himself with a mistake at the first and a poorer round of jumping than is usual leaving him on the back foot. Racing further back than any of his victories at the top level. Hopefully connections don’t try similar hold up tactics (as a lot do when going up in trip). Six lengths winner of the Melling Chase proves he stays at least 2 1/2 miles and could well stay 3 if conditions suit speed. Traffic Fluide and Double Shuffle just as well stay at home – outclassed. Outlander and Tea For Two need to improve massively from Haydock, O’ having 1/2 alength over TFT but with 66 lengths to make up on winner Bristol De Mai. Outlander won the JN Wine penultimate start after an inauspicious reappearance. But beaten a long way out and probably more to it than just stamina. Had pelvis trouble last year and possible that’s going to make him inconsistent. Tea For Two clambering over the last in the Betfair and out on his feet. Travelled well until the straight at Haydock and little doubt suited by a test of speed at 3 miles. Another whose chance deteriorates on soft ground. Placed in this last year, but on whatever surface I’ll be against him – cant see recovering in time. Disko is a far more interesting Irish contender than his owner-mate. Ground and trip not a problem and is one that could take on Bristol De Mai up front although doesn’t need to lead. Showed improved form last time out, giving 7 lbs and a 1/2 length beating to Ballyoisin. However, this grade 1 will need quite a lot extra. 2016 wasn’t a classic renewal of the King George, Cue Card disappointing but stable companion Thistlecrack deserves credit for winning as a novice. Looked capable of more progression and may need to if Might Bite or Bristol De Mai run well… However Thistlecrack was way below form over hurdles on reappearance/first run after injury. Questions to answer now. Will he ever recapture his best, let alone do so after such a disappointing run with only three weeks to step up? Looks unlikely. One I like at the odds is Whisper. Just failing to hold Total Recall who received a stone from the Nicky Henderson horse. Trainer currently in great form. Whisper would be a lot shorter without the Lambourn master trainer’s negative words about the handicapper slaughtering Whisper’s mark after Newbury. But Henderson is a trainer, not a form expert. Form of having 9 lengths back to Regal Encore (who recieved 11 lbs) just the same as it would’ve been if the well handicapped Total Recall wasn’t there. The performance better than majority of previous Hennessey winners and doesn’t need much more improvement to be right in the shake up. Yes, been beaten by his stable companion more than once before and probably will again here. But Might Bite is 6/4 and Whisper 10/1 or may be better still 9/1 NRNB with Skybet look attractive odds… And with so many questions about those at the head of the market an each way bet seems wise.
Value Is EverythingWith question marks over all those at the head of the market I’m taking a chance on Tea For Two at 25’s…
Disappointed last year in what looked a poor renewal, he’s won twice on Boxing Day in the past though, had won three times at Kempton, has winning form on good and soft ground and the yards last runner was a winner..
He’s been campaigned different this year with the reappearance over too shorter trip at Aintree then in the bog at Haydock…last time he faced BDM on better ground in the Aintree bowl he was well in front of him so at a course he has winning form at 25’s against 7/2 seems a bit daft…
If a few of the big guns fail to fire like I think they will he could sneak a place at worst..
Nice work, Mark. I’m a big Whisper fan but my concerns here are his hard race last time and, perhaps more importantly, his record right-handed. He’s started fav (Jt once) on all 4 RH runs but won only one – the 2-horse affair at Kempton. A strong suspicion going that way does not help his jumping which is workmanlike mostly, though safe and at Newbury highly efficient. But I love the horse and hope he runs a big race, although I’m convinced he’s destined for a permanent bridesmaid’s role in these big races.
Rain or no rain, I stand by my post-Betfair verdict that Bristol De Mai is likely to have made significant improvement from last season and will be up to winning this. Soft ground would be preferred but I won’t be quaking in my boots if it’s good. In a way I’d like to see good ground so he gets the chance to finally earn the plaudits he deserved after Haydock.
I think you’re right Joe, BDM running on decent ground, and winning, is probably
the only way that he is going to be accepted by some as very good. I think he is,
and although the going, and the course, was obviously very much to his liking in
the Betfair at Haydock, I think it showed him better than he has been at any time,
even previously when the ground was to his liking. Time will tell, but I think he
looks to have improved a fair bit. I’d love to see him win this, even although I
had this marked down for a Might Bite win at the start of the season. It’s going
to tell us a lot, but it’s great going into this with it still being a very open race.
Thanks for the write-up Ginger, great work I absolutely love Whisper. Pretty much have backed him in most of his races apart from this one. I think MB will jump them in to submission here. Love this race and can’t wait for it. Main thing is they all come home safe
I know trainer comments cant be taken as Gospel, but anyone backing Whisper after Henderson’s comments needs their head checking IMO.
In regards to Traffic Fluid, am i missing something here. I know someone on this forum was a big fan before the Haydock run, but i just dont see it. Is consistently run in top class races and is always found wanting for class. Hasnt won a race in coming up 3 years now and down to a mark of 153 is surely a handicapper now.
Nice work, Mark. I’m a big Whisper fan but my concerns here are his hard race last time and, perhaps more importantly, his record right-handed. He’s started fav (Jt once) on all 4 RH runs but won only one – the 2-horse affair at Kempton. A strong suspicion going that way does not help his jumping which is workmanlike mostly, though safe and at Newbury highly efficient. But I love the horse and hope he runs a big race, although I’m convinced he’s destined for a permanent bridesmaid’s role in these big races.
Although possible Whisper is better right-handed,Joe; of those four right-handed runs:
Two were handicaps, one of which he comes out the best horse at the weights – ahead of winner Saphir De Rheu.
One was on chase debut on reappearance in January 2015, obviously had some kind of problem to be off so long (April to Jan). Didn’t jump well and not seen again over fences for almost two years. Suspect something was wrong with him at that time – also below par 5th in Cole Harden’s Stayers Hurdle when next seen before bouncing back when beating that horse at Aintree.
Then that two horse race, but calling it that doesn’t do justice to the performance. At Kempton on this season’s reappearance against Clan Des Obeaux who’s gone on to beat Vintage Clouds easily by 7 lengths giving him 7 lbs and then failing only by 2 3/4 lengths when carrying 11-12 off a mark of 155 in the Caspian Caviar – even though getting behind and making a fast move to get in front. Clan Des Obeaux may well be on his way to Grade 1 company himself. Beating him as good as anything Whisper had done previously over fences. Improved subsequently at Newbury.tbh I don’t think it was a particularly hard race at Newbury; the way the front two quickened away from the pack suggested they had a lot left after the last fence and only got tired in the closing stages. Indeed, I feel Bristol De Mai probably had a harder race in the Betfair. Although won not coming under pressure it was a 3m1f race on absolutely bottomless ground. “Hennessey” officially good-soft but times on the day suggest it was faster than that – less testing.
Value Is EverythingI think you’re right Joe, BDM running on decent ground, and winning, is probably
the only way that he is going to be accepted by some as very good. I think he is,
and although the going, and the course, was obviously very much to his liking in
the Betfair at Haydock, I think it showed him better than he has been at any time,
even previously when the ground was to his liking. Time will tell, but I think he
looks to have improved a fair bit. I’d love to see him win this, even although I
had this marked down for a Might Bite win at the start of the season. It’s going
to tell us a lot, but it’s great going into this with it still being a very open race.
Thanks for the write-up Ginger, great workI’m not a BDM believer so far, so hope the rain stays away so he has a chance to prove me wrong.
I know trainer comments cant be taken as Gospel, but anyone backing Whisper after Henderson’s comments needs their head checking IMO.
In regards to Traffic Fluid, am i missing something here. I know someone on this forum was a big fan before the Haydock run, but i just dont see it. Is consistently run in top class races and is always found wanting for class. Hasnt won a race in coming up 3 years now and down to a mark of 153 is surely a handicapper now.
What did the trainer say that is so negative?
He criticised the mark given after the “Hennessey”. But Henderson is a trainer and does not understand form. Nicky messed up his handicap mark himself by picking up a 4 lb penalty for that race at Kempton – without which would’ve won at Newbury. Must be pretty miffed his chance of winning a big handicap has probably gone and I think that had more to do with those comments than anything else. Henderson apparently does not believe Whisper should go up anywhere near as much because “he did not win”. That’s crazy. 9 length beating of Regal Encore is a nine length beating of Regal Encore – whether Total Recall was in the field or not it’s the same form.
Value Is EverythingCant remember it word for word, but has essentially said he is a long, long way behind Might Bite.
If you dont fancy Might Bite, then you cant really fancy Whisper. only really if you think Might Bite is the next coming, could you feel confident about E/W money on Whisper.
All according to Hendo’s comments of course…
RUK just announced that Disko now a non-runner, could now go to Leopardstown probably because Gigginstown think they probably don’t have enough runners in the Christmas Chase
I know trainer comments cant be taken as Gospel, but anyone backing Whisper after Henderson’s comments needs their head checking IMO.
In regards to Traffic Fluid, am i missing something here. I know someone on this forum was a big fan before the Haydock run, but i just dont see it. Is consistently run in top class races and is always found wanting for class. Hasnt won a race in coming up 3 years now and down to a mark of 153 is surely a handicapper now.
What did the trainer say that is so negative?
He criticised the mark given after the “Hennessey”. But Henderson is a trainer and does not understand form. Nicky messed up his handicap mark himself by picking up a 4 lb penalty for that race at Kempton – without which would’ve won at Newbury. Must be pretty miffed his chance of winning a big handicap has probably gone and I think that had more to do with those comments than anything else. Henderson apparently does not believe Whisper should go up anywhere near as much because “he did not win”. That’s crazy. 9 length beating of Regal Encore is a nine length beating of Regal Encore – whether Total Recall was in the field or not it’s the same form.He said we know he isnt as good as might bite and theyv basically forced him to run against might bite again knowing he is not good enough
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