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I think that jockey change is quite significant. Whisper was officially ‘gone at the game’ until Russell took over – visibly restored the confidence of a jaded horse with some sympathetic rides in those early chase starts.
In the worlds of One Direction, Russell and Whisper have “a whole lotta history” and Coleman may not click so well.
I do hope T42 runs well because he’s the only one of my ante post bets still running. I’m finding it a very strange race this year. I backed BdM in everything last year so it’s a bit of a shock to see him suddenly turn into a superstar. The best thing about the race is not having to worry about Cue Card running. I know I haven’t been concentrating fully on the racing of late, but Whisper is a horse that is a bit anonymous to me, commendable as he is.
The updated weather forecast is mainly dry and overcast next few days then there is rain due overnight Monday into Tuesday. How much is not known.
Tuesday day time expected to be dry.I believe Bristol De Mai will hold an awful lot poorer chance if the going is sound. I am not convinced his jumping is natural and fluent enough at a faster pace.
They held Bristol De Mai up in the three runner affair of the Denman Chase, where Native River made it and, frankly, the Twiston-Davies horse never showed with any chance, making a couple of poor jumps into the bargain.
Onto the Gold Cup and he put in a fairly tame effort. However that was not as bad as when behind Tea For Two at Aintree, where he put in a poor effort.
When you get into the realms of excuses, it’s an area that I am not comfortable in. Some horses do go on to prove it can change but I tend to believe that when something tends to happen under certain circumstances only, it is likely that the same thing WILL happen again under those same circumstances.
There’s actually nothing I fancy strongly at the odds now. I am pretty negative about Thistlecrack. The thinking in some places is that he travelled well last time and just needed the race more than they thought. To me it’s a case of horses always look to be travelling well when the jockey hasn’t asked them. It’s more likely to my eyes that Thistlecrack was to be ridden easy and if it wasn’t there, then don’t give him a hard time. Maybe it just isn’t there for the horse to give now. I couldn’t back him with what I saw last time.
Potentially, this race isn’t anywhere near the quality it may appear to be at first glance. Might Bite may just go out and win it cosily enough but I wouldn’t be backing him at 6/4 and less. I can see a scenario where he wins here, goes short for Cheltenham but gets done in by Sizing John, (who made a good comeback this season) when it comes to Cheltenham. I don’t think I will take the 8/1 for Might Bite to win both but he has to be better value than the 20/1 for Sizing John for the same two races. Bet365 get a grip!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If Bristol De Mai is to keep his ‘Superstar’ status he must now earn it and this is his toughest task to date. But he really is a different horse this year and shouldn’t be judged on his performances last season when he was dogged by injury.
To see the flying grey streak home will make my Christmas and like Moe I’m glad that Cue Card will not be lining up in this one.
Enjoy the race and let them all come home safely (behind BDM
)
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Bristol De Mai does not have “Superstar” status yet Jac. He’s won one race by a massive margin and there are umpteen question marks on that race for now.
If he wins the King George he will cement himself as a top rate chaser. If he runs away with it he will be the Gold Cup favourite and the best chaser in training. Routing the field in the Gold Cup could set him up as one of the best winners in recent times.
Real “Superstars” need to do the business for several seasons. It’s way early to be making Arkle comparisons based on one win. History is littered with Great White and even Great Grey Hopes who didn’t make it.
One race at a time for me and reassess after them.
Hope it’s a great race and they all finish sound.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hi guys I registered just to tell you all that not sure if its a mistake but Genting bet have Might bite at 7/2. They seem to have top 2 wrong way round as DBm is 11/8. Not sure how good genting bet are but if anyone interested it’s there for now.
@SteveCaution
I was just echoing Moe’s sentiments Steve in her frustration for not backing him this year, hence the italics, and I think you know I’m not lumbering him with that accolade this early in his career, but he has youth on his side and if he is going to improve to be a Cheltenham contender now is his time.I would like to see him win the race with conditions against him this time to quieten the doubters and prove that he is worthy of his rating.
Supporters of BDM including myself are probably all secretly hoping for another Desert Orchid or One Man and flying greys are great crowd pullers and good for the sport and BDM is filling us with hope that possibly we are on the verge of something special. It’s a bubble that can very quickly burst but while there is a glimmer of hope that Bristol De Mai might be able to fulfill that dream I’m with him 100% all the way to The Gold Cup…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...UnowhatImeanHarry well beaten today in the Long Walk; Thistlecrack fans should be concerned about that.
It’s one of the few days when racing makes the national news and, as jac said, a grey horse stands out. It was seeing Dessie on the news at Christmas that got me back into racing proper and I shall be eternally grateful for that. We saw BdM at Leicester one day and realised then that the stable thought they had a very good horse on their hands, which is why I backed him ante post for his races last year.
I don’t think Bristol De Mai will ever have that Desert Orchid/One Man following no matter what he does.
I still can’t forget how he got outpaced in the Gold Cup and am not sure his jumping will hold up in the heat of battle here.
Understand your point Charles and you are probably right but Bristol De Mai was not himself last season and made lots of errors because his hoof injury kept flaring up and probably put him off his game.
Surely being such a young horse he must now be given the chance to prove that a line can be drawn under his performance last season and have the opportunity to prove that he is improving in leaps and bounds.
Only a stellar performance on Boxing Day is going to convince his doubters that he is a genuine contender for Cheltenham glory and that he will retain and improve his form in years to come. I hope he does.
Of course I am in no way underestimating that Might Bite is a force to be reckoned with and have no doubt that with Whisper also running Nicky Henderson could have a plan to spoil the chances of his rival.
Bristol De Mai needs to be on his top game on Boxing Day. He is clever at putting himself right at his fences and if he makes no major errors he can beat Might Bite…it’s going to be a great race.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...As good a horse as BDM is he will likely find it hard to even garner the following One Man had so he has absolutely zero chance of replicating the following Dessie had.
Always tend to think of him this time of year and his last KG win with GG’s commentary still gets to me to this day some 27 years later and sadly I still struggle over his Timeform rating being at 187 some 5lbs and 4lbs below Sprinter & Kauto Star which to me is criminal imho although unlikely that many would agree with me on that but hey ho.
Dessie was different gear in all respects as he could mix it from 2m to 3m6f on any ground and many times had to give huge amounts of weight to rivals on a scale that in same cases wasn’t far off what Arkle was tasked with. In his Racing Post Chase win under 12st 3lbs it meant he had to give future Grand National winner Seagram 34lbs, in the Irish National he gave between 26-28lbs to the whole field and his Tingle Creek win he had to give 18-28lbs to the field and 22lbs to Panto Prince in that epic Victor Chandler at Ascot. As special as they both were, I couldn’t see either Sprinter or Kauto being capable of those type of feats.
But I digress, back to BDM it is interesting to note that rain predictions for Crimbo Day range from 5mm-20mm so there is a reasonable possibility that he may get the ground conditions for the race so maybe NTD’s rain dancing just might pay off.
Being a member of Desert Orchid’s fan club and having been to several of his open days at the Burridges and later at David Elsworths to celebrate his Gold Cup Wins I know exactly those feelings that the King George on Boxing Day conjure up LD73.
Moe was also there although I didn’t know at the time that we were kindrid spirits in the admiration of ‘Himself’. Midge Burridge and Richard were extremely enthusiastic owners and delighted in giving Dessie’s fans plenty of time to make a fuss of him and participate in auctions of his mane, racing plates and paintings for charity.
No horse will ever replace him, my house is full of memorabilia of those happy days.However, now I’m digressing so… let’s give Bristol De Mai the benefit of the doubt and see if we are still talking of him in the same way this time next year. Champions don’t just appear it takes time for them to develop, I hope he makes the grade and gives us a good show, the rain will certainly help him but to do it without his preferred conditions would give him a better chance to go for glory at Cheltenham…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Could someone tell me the date of the last declarations for the KG when ante post prices became early prices ?
Done a complete about turn and backed Might Bite. Watching a rerun of his run in the kauto star last year, he was actually quickening up at the end of the race. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before in a staying chase, when a horse has quickened up at the end there like he’s just joined in a six furlong race. Ok he blundered and fell, but I think he can make up for it here
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