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Message for TAPK …or anyone else I suppose
I read in another thread that you can’t split Harbinger and Workforce….no contest…a three year old won’t win this year, there just not up to much buy recent standards, At First Sight’s latest runs tells you all you need to know about The Derby form, I fancy an EW on your old pal Age Of Aquarius he’s far better value (and a better horse) than Workforce especially if Seamus Heffernan is allowed to poach a similar lead to the one he stole at Epsom, lets face it, if AOA met At First Sight would you not expect AOA to beat the 3-Y-O by more than 7 lengths? I’d put my house on it!
PS
Profound Beauty misses the race and instead is going for a blatant penalty kick in a 1m6f listed race at Leopardstown tomorrow night leaving the way clear for Harbinger in The KG
Go for the double
I like your confidence Chelters,Profound Beauty will be 2/1 fav for the Irish St Leger cometh the day! Fill your Boots! Age of aquarius will now get the kid glove treatment until next years Gold Cup and he will be a 5yo beast by that time!
Workforce is a beast already and there is only one horse who can worry him in the King George and thats Harbinger,both are top class and yet are like chalk and cheese,fascinating race awaits!IMO Dermot Weld has a problem on his hands keeping his owners happy and placing his top horses to their best avantage as Profound Beauty and Rite Of Passage need to be split up, I can’t see the point in racing them against each other and there aren’t enough races to go round. Word from the stable is that Rite Of Passage is a definate runner in the Irish St Leger, but if he was mine I’d run him in The Arc as he’s going to get murdered by the handicapper in The Melbourne Cup whereas the mare will get in with a lighter weight.
Don’t tell me an Ascot Gold Cup winer can’t win The Arc, I had my only 50-1 winner when Levmoss did it and Ardross was the unluckiest loser ever.
To make his decisions even more difficult he’s got another one waiting in the wings that’s got the potential to be as good, Natural High, an Ebor entry, nice problem to have mind you, as any one of the three would win the Irish Leger.
Of course as the best racehorse trainer on the planet it’s only to be expected that he’d be spoilt for choice and the icing on the cake is that it would be hard to find a better jockey than Pat Smullen!I would not back ante-post in this race yet.
Anyone worried about the form of Sir Michael Stoute?
Although some ran well, an awful lot have been below form. Only 1 winner in his last 28 runners and that a 4/9 shot who scraped home by a head!
Also, I’m a fan of Workforce, but if he was easy to train surely would’ve had more than 3 runs to his name. Must be a bigger chance than most horses of a "slight setback" before Saturday.
Value Is EverythingOf course as the best racehorse trainer on the planet it’s only to be expected that he’d be spoilt for choice and the icing on the cake is that it would be hard to find a better jockey than Pat Smullen!
We Antipodeans would say a clear second best – behind Bart Cummings. We no doubt agree he is second best though, and the best trainer outside of Australia
JanVermeer ran in France during the week. He did not run like the JanVermeer who won from the front and going away as a 2YO. Today at the Currage Air Chief Marshal won well.I am sharing with you Aidans comments. What do you make of them in the light of the poor running of last year’s stars?
"Johnny said he felt like a different horse the last day in Dundalk," said O’Brien.
"He’s really come back to himself, he travelled well today and Johnny gave him a great ride."
"Air Chief Marshal (5-1) had lost his way after being a promising juvenile last year, but he showed all that was behind him as he saw off seasoned campaigners in admirable fashion".(Sporting Life)
May I say that perhaps the other stars of last year who also lost their way may be coming back.But will it be soon enough to meet and beat the Derby winner?Another thread pointed out the poor run of Michael Stoute’s runners…..something that I’d noticed too and which has had me leaning towards the chances of Age Of Aquarius in the last few days.
Will he risk running Workforce and putting a dent in his value if there is a proplem in the yard?
Not that I feel hes the best chance of the stables two entries but if Harbinger was to run, and run poorly, it would be less expensive than if it happened to Workforce
Does anyone know what the going is likely to be on Saturday? Has Berkshire been "enjoying"
the sort of weather we’ve had up here in the last few weeks?
Ladbrokes are offering 20-1 and much as I dislike betting Ante Post this looks amazing EW value and I’m tempted, he’s 12-1 with most firms, especially if the ground is going to be on the softish side of good which would suit him better IMO than the going he encountered in his last two runs, excellent runs as they were nevertheless.Of course as the best racehorse trainer on the planet it’s only to be expected that he’d be spoilt for choice and the icing on the cake is that it would be hard to find a better jockey than Pat Smullen!
We Antipodeans would say a clear second best – behind Bart Cummings. We no doubt agree he is second best though, and the best trainer outside of Australia
I’ll reconsider my opinion when Bart Cummings brings one over here and wins The Ascot Gold Cup
Another thread pointed out the poor run of Michael Stoute’s runners…..something that I’d noticed too and which has had me leaning towards the chances of Age Of Aquarius in the last few days.
I think this run is completely irrelevant as none of his best horses have been out recently.
I think this run is completely irrelevant as none of his best horses have been out recently.
PS Lets see how Edalil runs today
Like a pig
I wouldn’t dismiss his recent form on that basis, when a stable is "wrong" all the horse tend to be affected, remember Willie Mullins bad run early in 2010 for instance, some of best ones didn’t even get a run at The Festival
PS Lets see how Edalil runs today
I remember getting 6/4 about Dubai Millennium in the POW because Godolphin were having a bad time of it. Imposing ran as well as his form entitled him to in the John Smiths.
The only thing wrong with the Ballydoyle horses in the Derby was they weren’t good enough!
Another thread pointed out the poor run of Michael Stoute’s runners…..something that I’d noticed too and which has had me leaning towards the chances of Age Of Aquarius in the last few days.
I think this run is completely irrelevant as none of his best horses have been out recently.
Euro,
As I said in the other thread, Stoute’s July record in the last 4 years is 22%, 17%, 23%, 28% with all his horses, not just the best or poor ones. This season it is 6.7%, doesn’t look "irrelevant" to me.Some have run to form, but not many. Not saying Workforce or Harbinger will run poorly. Just that the possibility of doing so must be allowed for in the price you are willing to take at the moment.
If SMS comes back to form this week with a few winners, you can safely say he’s back in form and dismiss the out of form run. But right now he’s in poor form.
Value Is EverythingIts simply got to be Workforce by a wide margin
Cape Blanco is out to 15/2 on Befair.
Harbinger can’t get in the same county as Workforce according to Ryan Moore(Alan Lee of the times said on RTE)
Anything over 4/6 is a gift
Its simply got to be Workforce by a wide margin
Cape Blanco is out to 15/2 on Befair.
Harbinger can’t get in the same county as Workforce according to Ryan Moore(Alan Lee of the times said on RTE)
Anything over 4/6 is a gift
Not with a worry over the stables form it isn’t, I can recall a far better Derby winner getting beat in the race at 1-14, his name? Santa Claus
Not with a worry over the stables form it isn’t, I can recall a far better Derby winner getting beat in the race at 1-14, his name? Santa Claus
I’m interested to know why you think Santa Claus was a far better Derby winner than Workforce ?
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I think perhaps Ryan Moore rode an injudicious race in the Derby.Had Mick Kinane ridden a similar race on Sea The Stars there would be no season of racing left for us to enjoy last year.No Coral Eclipse, no Juddmont International, no Irish Champion,no Arc.Surely Ryan should have kept something up his sleeve for later use.Time will tell.
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