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How’s your supplement system going anyway Joe?
I’m only playing at it really, judge, and haven’t kept figures (have very few bets on the Flat). Probably had about 7 ‘system’ bets: 2 were on Red Verdon which went down. Won a few quid last year on Simple Verse. Golden Horn was an Epsom supplement as you know, although I’d already backed him for the Dante/Derby double (only because someone was way out of line on the price)
The reason I believe there might be something to it is that with these young colts and fillies, they can suddenly start showing things at home that leave their track form well behind. I wouldn’t find Coolmore or Godolphin supplements as attractive as less rich owners. And I think the real key to them would be knowing the instigator: if a trainer is the one who says ‘you ought to stump up £75k’ here, that is a hell of a confidence call.
The downside of making it an effective system is that you will rarely know who has prompted the entry; also there seems no formal way you can easily find out supplemented animals.
Anyway, like all punters, I expect it to be a profitable small pastime while waiting for the proper racing to resume.
GT, your negatives are positives in my eyes: The Queen has got a few quid, sure, but for Stoute to put his reputation on the line with the monarch means an awful lot more than a financial commitment. Doubly so if the yard is out of form.
I don’t doubt you on the form data. Stoute will be aware of it too, yet he still tells Lizzie, effectively, despite the yard being out of form, and a hot fav in the race, and me putting decades of judgement on the line (having trained plenty winners of this race), I think we can win it (can’t see him recommending a supplement in the hope of sneaking a place).
So, whatever the pace, however it’s run, I think Dartmouth will win convincingly.
Still as Ginger says what else are they going to do with the horse
I’m sure he’s going to go close Mike but doubt even Stoute knows whether the horse will win or not
As for putting his reputation on the line, I’m not convinced about this one. Stoute is a knight with decades of training experience. Whatever happens between now and the end of his training career, I doubt his reputation will ever be at stake. Would he really be shaking with fear when picking up the phone to do the supplement, thinking “this had better bloody win, otherwise I’m for the tower”?
I think not. Queen Liz has been around the block enough to know anything you do in racing is essentially a gamble. There are no guarantees. Nevertheless I think Dartmouth has a great chance, especially if the rainstorms stay away.
Dartmouth looks ominously weak at 9/2 with Postponed out of the race.
I feel Highland Reel is too short now at half the odds, and less, of the initial new favourite Dartmouth.
I have beaten the price with Erupt whatever happens and although not super confident, I feel he has a good chance as the largely ignored horse who is now, finally, finding a little support. He is the selection of Timeform on the ATR website based largely on his Arc and Japan Cup efforts.
Wings Of Desire will either win this or be unplaced I feel. The better ground may help but he is from a family of “difficult” horses and I am still not sure how strong this year’s Derby was. US Army Ranger should be out soon I believe and Harzand has looked a tough, rather than dazzling winner of the Epsom classic. It’s a coin toss for me and so I left him out of it.
For what it’s worth I don’t think there is any pressure on Stoute because it is the Queen’s horse.
If they finish third today the Queen will be up £55,000 and if they are 4th the Queen will be down £10,000. That seems a very sensible risk and it’s not as if The Queen is going to kick Stoutie in the goolies and take his Knighthood away if they are only 5th today.
“Mr Michael Ronald Stoute, take those aching plums out of one’s Palace and never darken my door again”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Highland Reel benefited from a good ride from the front. Dartmouth always looked to have a lot on from where he was.
After being a bit far back last time out, Erupt was in a good position today but when he was asked for an effort he couldn’t pick up. I thought he was a bit better than that and he was disappointing really.
Wings Of Desire ran OK but he’s probably not quite a Group 1 horse.
Typically, I had Highland Reel at 11/1 last time at Ascot and the jockey dropped the whip. A better man on board today and he does the business.
Still, that’s racing for you.
Well done Highland Reel fans, the market spoke and he looked the winner from a fair way out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Highland Reel won well but don’t rate the horse, that was a group 3/2 race at best.
Most of the time it’s about working races out!I think Highland Reel benefited from a good ride from the front. Dartmouth always looked to have a lot on from where he was.
After being a bit far back last time out, Erupt was in a good position today but when he was asked for an effort he couldn’t pick up. I thought he was a bit better than that and he was disappointing really.
Wings Of Desire ran OK but he’s probably not quite a Group 1 horse.
Typically, I had Highland Reel at 11/1 last time at Ascot and the jockey dropped the whip. A better man on board today and he does the business.
Still, that’s racing for you.
Well done Highland Reel fans, the market spoke and he looked the winner from a fair way out.
I wonder why Dartmouth was ridden so far back given that he has previously made the running and wouldn’t have been suited by being held up in what was never likely to be an overly fast run race. I don’t understand those tactics at all.
The story of this race seemed to be known prior to the off with Dartmouth weak and Highland Reel strong in the market.
I wonder why Dartmouth was ridden so far back given that he has previously made the running and wouldn’t have been suited by being held up in what was never likely to be an overly fast run race. I don’t understand those tactics at all
I suspect Moore simply outrode Peslier. He went a fair lick for a while. Peslier wouldn’t have known how long Moore intended to maintain that pace and had to make a decision about what position to take. By the time he’d settled in, Moore had slowed it down for a while and before Peslier could decide what to do, Moore went again. I suspect Dartmouth only has one run and he got going too late, though I’m not sure another jock would have done much better given Moore’s ride.
Even if he’d been in the perfect spot throughout, I doubt he’d have beaten the winner today with any kind of ride.
I think highland reel is being underated especially on quick going. He beat Flintshire after that horse was second in the arc. In a strongly run race he is a top horse taking the lead 2 to 3 furlongs out. Seems like he’s ballydoyles new St Nicholas abbey and sir Isaac Newton could well be a globetrotter and competitive at 10 furlongs. Aiden is over £2m ahead in prizemoney in Britain alone and that without a top middle distance colt and with many top and races at his mercy especially with the likes of minding and Alice springs who looks to be a cracking filly on firm going.
Ryan Moore masterclass.
Originally set off at a slowish pace.
Quickened, taking his rivals by surprise by nicking many lengths without over excerting Highland Reel.
Then slowing it down again before sprinting for home.Value Is EverythingI think highland reel is being underated especially on quick going. He beat Flintshire after that horse was second in the arc. In a strongly run race he is a top horse taking the lead 2 to 3 furlongs out. Seems like he’s ballydoyles new St Nicholas abbey and sir Isaac Newton could well be a globetrotter and competitive at 10 furlongs. Aiden is over £2m ahead in prizemoney in Britain alone and that without a top middle distance colt and with many top and races at his mercy especially with the likes of minding and Alice springs who looks to be a cracking filly on firm going.
Totally agree – he had his conditions yesterday and looked amazing in the paddock. The front two have pulled clear and I think both will win more G1 races.
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btw Fair Eva is a champion bridle job the Guineas
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