- This topic has 65 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
There is little point in saying that Churchill is a certainty for the Guineas, if you then wait until the day and then back him when he is 1/3 Fav or whatever.
The whole point about foresight is getting paid for seeing it before the bookies do.
Your 1/3 winning ticket looks a bit like a limp willy, when the guy standing next to you pulls out a raging erection of a ticket with 16/1 writ large on it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
i dont play often AP,if i do it has to be at a double figure price.GL to the people who make it pay i have nothing but admiration for them and i have been in the game 40+ years(still thisk as pigs at it)
there are a few on here who are very good at it and i like to keep an eye at for the horses they have mentioned,even though i dont get involved myself.The reason being sometimes their AP goes west but 9-% of the time they have spotted a decent animal
Even with Postponed in there, it was a very weak looking renewal, which is a pity, as this used to be a really significant race.
Just another race now, and in no rush to part with any cash on it just for the sake of it.
If he lined up on Saturday and was a price, I’d maybe get involved with Sir Isaac, but until then, not for me.
Why is there only one horse who contested a classic anywhere in Europe running in this? The Irish Derby was run nearly a month ago so surely there can’t be a complaint on the race scheduling in Europe.
Where’s Idaho, Port Douglas, Moonlight Magic, Almanzor, Imperial Aviator, Zarak, Across The Stars?
There is little point in saying that Churchill is a certainty for the Guineas, if you then wait until the day and then back him when he is 1/3 Fav or whatever.
The whole point about foresight is getting paid for seeing it before the bookies do.
Your 1/3 winning ticket looks a bit like a limp willy, when the guy standing next to you pulls out a raging erection of a ticket with 16/1 writ large on it.
He wont be odds on and about 1/2 weeks before the race most go NRNB anyway so you still get a good enough price. Okay some people might have a couple thousand on him at big odds but what happens if all of a sudden he gets a little nick? They are only horses at the end of the day. Then you are stood there like an idiot thousands of pounds down! Imagine how many people slammed Postponed at 1/2… I bet people had thousands on him and now look? they decide to go for the Juddmonte instead so make up some bs with no regard for the poor bugger who had thousands on him.
I have a friend who managed to get 50/1 on Min to win the whatchumacallit at Cheltenham but he didn’t back each way. Great price and fantastic foresight but ultimately a sickener of a bet.
1/2 Antepost is just a risk not worth taking. There had been substantial support for Dartmouth before Postponed was ruled out and that may just have edged his price out a little come Friday eve.
I can’t say much though as I don’t back ante post, but I completely understand the thrill of trying to call a race way before its schedule when there is a price of at least 4/1 on offer. The money part of it is a boost as well, obviously.
I’m just rambling now. At least we go straight into Glorious Goodwood next week to banish the memory of another poor KG renewal.
I suspect very few experienced ante-post punters would back anything at 1/2. The main attraction in AP is value and we regulars (at AP) have that uppermost in mind with every bet.
90% of big races I would not bet AP in, but from time to time one comes up that makes sense. I’ve mentioned here before the 2013 King George at Kempton. After the 2013 Festival, 4 of the first 5 in the betting for the KG were either unlikely to run or unlikely to stay (imo, of course). Cue Card was 14/1 when, on my tissue, he should have been 5s. He started joint fav at 10/3 and, as you’ll recall, went wrong after the 2nd last and finished 2nd. Despite the defeat it was right to bet him as the bookies had made a huge error pricing the race AP and anything that could have happened to him between March and December was well worth the risk given the level of compensation built in.
Sadly, Mullins’s shenanigans at the recent Festival has killed off my main source of ante-post betting.
BTW, another advantage of AP is that it seems to escape the algos bookies use to monitor accounts. I know some very big sums have been won over the years by veteran AP punters and there has never been a sniff of a restricted account (am probably jinxing everyone now)
I think postponed would of been hammered, there was nothing to beat in the race…come race day he would of been huge odds on.
I’ll say this first I won’t be betting on the race, but to my eye the value is with Highland Reel at around 11/4 or whatever he is now.
Since flopping in the Irish Derby last year, he has raced over 12f 4 times, the first of those was his first race after the Irish Derby in which he beat Scottish in a G3 at Goodwood by over a length, solid enough form for a 3yo. His next run over 12f was a win in Hong Kong over Flintshire, again by over a length and looking good in doing so, that was in Dec 2015. His next race was also over 12f in the Dubai World cup finishing a creditable 4lengths behind Postponed but I always easily forgive horses for not performing to their optimum in Dubai, so many unknown variables can cause a horse to underperform out there. Highland Reel’s most recent run at 12f was also his most recent run, finishing a head behind Dartmouth at Ascot, however the jockey dropped his whip and he had Seamiemi Hefferernanane onboard and if you swap that for Moore (whatever you say about the man) I see the tables being reversed.
Highland Reel for the win!
The older horses are clearly nothing special.
Given the way the three year olds dominated the eclipse then Wings of desire must have an outstanding chance here
Not completely convinced about the horse but if he is up to anything at all he should really be taking care of this lot. A really poor race for a group one, let alone a King George.
Highland Reel has to be the one here, he was an unlucky loser last time, wasn’t fully wound up on ground he is not 100% happy with. He has quirks like hanging his head to one side and he didn’t settle last time. Moore likely to switch him off and get him in a nice rhythm then kick and its extremely hard to head Moore.
Dartmouth is the fav but I think on Gd-Fm he wont be as effective although he has decent form on the surface. Moore vs Peslier…theres only one winner.
I liked Wings of Desires chances when I was working the race out but he dosent fully stay. The way the race will be ran will suit a patient ride from Detorri but he wont see the trip out fully.
There is no confirmed front runner, so a sound pace is nowhere near certain.
Dartmouth and Highland Reel have been successful from the front before, but neither is it their usual way of running. Closely matched on Hardwicke form. Seamus dropping the whip possibly making the difference, although Dartmouth is the more progressive. However, Sir Michael seems in much worse form than O’Brien, so suspect the Irish horse much more likely to show his form. Queen’s charge one to take on.
Sir Isaac Newton has run poorly when front running in the past. Best runs to date held up or racing mid-div. Will the Ballydoyle second string be sacrificed as pacemaker?
Needs to improve, but is going the right way at last and now steps up in trip.Second Step no chance on this year’s form. Usually races prominently, but more often tracking pace than making it. Stable now in much better form and best of last season would see him going very close. Can see Second Step being suited by the run of the race and @ 49/1 imo worth a speculative wager.
Erupt can track pace, but often held up. Not sure any of rivals today would be good enough to finish 5th in an Arc. Although wouldn’t like to see him get too far back.
Can’t see Western Hymn going to the front, usually held up out the back over shorter. Late to make him in to a 12f horse. Test of speed would be in his favour, but probably not quite good enough, seems exposed – unlike stable companion…
Wings Of Desire was held up when putting up his best form in the Dante and came from a similar posi in the Derby. Never been near the pace early, although a sound pace is likely to be in his favour. Change of tactics?
Pace in the race is a worry. If getting/making sound fractions there are sound reasons to be positive. None of the runners look up to winning an average King George and Wings Of Desire has most scope for improvement. Deserves a second chance to prove his Derby odds did not underestimate ability. Ground turned against Wings Of Desire at Epsom. Hopefully thunder storms stay away from Ascot.I’ve backed Erupt 9/2, Wings Of Desire 4/1 and Second Step 49/1.
Laid Dartmouth 3.2/1.Value Is EverythingNo question it’s a sub standard KG, but don’t overlook the fact that Stoute supplemented Dartmouth while the 1/2 fav was still in the race. This suggests to me that the progressive colt might well have finally come into full bloom. He is still a decent price, imo.
No question it’s a sub standard KG, but don’t overlook the fact that Stoute supplemented Dartmouth while the 1/2 fav was still in the race. This suggests to me that the progressive colt might well have finally come into full bloom. He is still a decent price, imo.
Interesting confidence boosted for you that Diploma hacked up at York earlier.
Skated clear on the quicker ground.
Maybe I was talking garbage earlier, just for a change.
Wings of desire is not a horse I’m in love with, I just don’t think he’s that good. I’m now leaning towards Dartmouth. Queenie hasn’t won this race since 1954, so sure would be a sentimental winner.How’s your supplement system going anyway Joe?
No question it’s a sub standard KG, but don’t overlook the fact that Stoute supplemented Dartmouth while the 1/2 fav was still in the race. This suggests to me that the progressive colt might well have finally come into full bloom. He is still a decent price, imo.
Hardwicke win and the fact he’s been progressive makes King George the obvious race for Dartmouth with or without Postponed, Joe. No surprise he’s been supplemented. Doesn’t make Dartmouth a good price. The queen has plenty of money, supplementary fee means nothing to her. Stoutey is not in as good form either, which is a big negative for me. Dartmouth has imo only the 4th best chance.
My 100% book:
Erupt 3/1, Wings Of Desire 100/30, Highland Reel 7/2, Dartmouth 5/1, Sir Isaac Newton 14/1, Second Step 25/1, Western Hymn 66/1.The awful price about Dartmouth makes more horses value.
Value Is Everything
Needs to improve, but is going the right way at last and now steps up in trip.
Wings of desire is not a horse I’m in love with, I just don’t think he’s that good. I’m now leaning towards Dartmouth. Queenie hasn’t won this race since 1954, so sure would be a sentimental winner.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.