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Aragorn
O Brien didnt say he wouldnt get the trip as per the RP headline, he did say…..
"…..this is his first time over a mile and a half and we don’t really know what is going to happen when he goes past a mile and a quarter, it’s going to be interesting."
How is that an admission of a stamina doubt? More utter bollox from the bookmaker compliant RP but very interesting again to see the off course propaganda machine in full flow.
Surely by saying they dont know what will happen and its going to be interesting, contains a certain amount of doubt? Having read that, i would say there is doubt in there. But i dont think AoB is worried as they prefere DOM to SOF for this race which says alot in my opinion. I always had SOF as their horse for 12f but if DOM wins this, there is no doubt DOM is there older horse flag bearer. Dylan Thomas in the making.
Reading Aidan O’Brien’s "admission" – I guess that was a bit of Nick Robson manipulation.
Papal Bull is there – and looks a top E-W shot at 10/1 with bet365.
It’s more gut feeling and speculative ideas than form telling the story. But I’m strangely confident he’ll break through here.
Sorry if this is a naive question but wouldn’t AOB know DOM’s 12f stamina capabilities by gallops at home, granted these are not race conditions?.
I’ve read they have sectional timing on the gallops at Ballydoyle and the work riders carry GPS armbands, so you’d imagine he has a fairly good idea, he is famous for attention to detail after all. Of course that is not always replicated on the racecourse but to print a headline stating he has admitted to stamina doubts based on what he actually said is pure tabloid garbage imo.
Sorry if this is a naive question but wouldn’t AOB know DOM’s 12f stamina capabilities by gallops at home, granted these are not race conditions?.
You never can tell with home work, as they never go at racing pace over the trip.
Mark
Value Is EverythingWent on a West Berkshire Racing Club stable visit to Mick Channon this morning. Saw Youmzain, from what I could see he looked well in his coat. Could not get too close as we were told he bites!
Mark
Value Is EverythingI’ve read they have sectional timing on the gallops at Ballydoyle and the work riders carry GPS armbands, so you’d imagine he has a fairly good idea, he is famous for attention to detail after all.
I don’t know if you are joking or not.
CR, why does that make the RP bookmaker compliant?
Edited to say: I also never said O’Brien said he wouldn’t stay, just that he wasn’t sure. Which is what he and everyone else is asking themselves. Even the genial O’Brien won’t know the answer to that question.
I’ve read they have sectional timing on the gallops at Ballydoyle and the work riders carry GPS armbands, so you’d imagine he has a fairly good idea, he is famous for attention to detail after all.
I don’t know if you are joking or not.
No he isnt joking. It was in the Irish Times (or whatever paper, someone posted a link on here last week i think) and had a full interview with him and he said all the riders wear GPS so they can study split times etc. Suprised me aswell though!
Dont know if you have read this David, well worth a few minutes if you havent….
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/new … 33800.html
I’m more in disagreement with the RP article than yourself Aragorn. Its my opinion the bookmakers have a very good idea of what a horses true price is, then use the RP to get the price where they want it. They were all over the Hannons last weekend in the Supersprint. All’s fair in love and war I suppose. Rant over.
Yeah but they were talking up the horses chances were they not? Or are you suggesting they are trying to put people off? Either way what O’Brien says is not going to be swayed by the RP. It’ll be swayed by Coolmore.
I’ve read they have sectional timing on the gallops at Ballydoyle and the work riders carry GPS armbands, so you’d imagine he has a fairly good idea, he is famous for attention to detail after all.
I don’t know if you are joking or not.
No he isnt joking. It was in the Irish Times (or whatever paper, someone posted a link on here last week i think) and had a full interview with him and he said all the riders wear GPS so they can study split times etc. Suprised me aswell though!
I’m surprised your surprised that people are using that kind of technology!!!
I think Youmzain may have been flattered last time out. Getaway has proved a major disappointment and Soldier of Fortune had a new jockey and may be better going right-handed. When you see horse that has been beaten may times at that level running all over his rivals two furlongs out it raises doubts about the race. Macarthur to follow DoM home.
They were talking up the Hannon horses and they all got beat
Of course what O Brien says will be swayed by Ballydoyle, the RP have choosen to distort it with their headline in this case and yes I think they’re trying to put people off DOM. Considering he’s rated one of the top horses in the world at the moment the silence from the RP all week has been deafening.
Understandable I suppose considering the hiding they’ve taken from Ballydoyle this year and interesting how they go about it imo.
The KG VI depends a great deal on the pace of the race. Duke Of Marmalade is on breeding far from certain to get the trip. By Danehill who was a sprinter / miler himself (by Danzig, the Northern Dancer line). Danehill’s female line does include some stamina influences, notably Ribot. Danehill’s progeny stay all sorts of distances, but usually need a stamina influence on the dams side to stay further than 10f. The Duke is out of a seven furlong winner Love Me True who is by Kingmambo, a miler who in turn is by Mr Prospector and out of Miesque (neither stamina influences). Love Me True is a sister to Shuailaan, a 1m2f winner in GB, 4th to Rodrigo De Triano in the Champion Stakes. However Shuailaan did stay further, being 4th of 7 in User Friendly’s St Leger. He was though by a much bigger stamina influence (Roberto) than Kingmambo. A half brother Bite The Bullet was a grade 2 winner in the USA at 7f. Grand dam Lassie’s Lady was also a 7f horse.
So on breeding Duke Of Marmalade probably will not stay 1m4f. However, breeding is only half the equation. He relaxes well and judging by the Prince Of Wales and Tatts Gold Cup has a good chance of doing so. If the pace is slow I believe he will stay, if fast I have sizeable doubts.
I will be amazed if Coolmoore’s pacemaker does not attempt to slow the pace down. It will be up to those jockeys on stamina horses Ask, Lucarno, Papal Bull and Youmzain to press the pacemaker and make sure it is truly run. Lucarno is the obvious one to do so, though Jimmy Fortune’s comments about taking on pacemakers is not encouraging. Ask I believe would be capable of doing so, but doubt if his connections have the bottle. Papal Bull does not have the capability and Youmzain’s connections are adamant they can not do so.
On form The Duke does not have so much on his rivals to warrant a price of around evens, especially with some stamina doubts.
Youmzain is a middle distance / stayer. Needs at least 1m4f nowadays and may well run in the Irish St Leger after the King George. Looking at his career in the last couple of years (as a 4 and 5 year old), in fact he’s very consistent when given a true run race. The Saint Cloud, Arc, King George were all truly run. The jockey has reported twice that he has slipped on bends, at Saint Cloud last year and King Ed at three. The Coronation Cup was a muddling race, although the two “pacemakers” went a decent pace they were not followed by the principals. Pace was o.k. in Dubai this term without being “true” and although travelled well did not have a change of gear. Beaten essentially by speedier types with form at shorter distances. Also, it was on reappearance and may have needed it. The Preis Von Baden was slowly run and did not suit his style and hadn’t the speed to trouble Dylan Thomas and Notnowcato in the Tatts Gold Cup.
So his best three performances since three year old days have all been in truly run races. It is strange that connections (of any horse) do not often recognise it is not necessarily a horse doing best because he’s "held up", it is often a liking for a truly run race instead. I do not say Youmzain should make the running as he does idle in front, but there is no reason why he can not be “held up” by tracking pace. With slow early sections in my opinion he has little chance of winning and would not be certain to be placed either. His chance hinges on whether others take on the pacemaker.
On form Youmzain is a good bet at current prices, what price would Soldier Of Fortune have been (on good going) if he were in here? The pace angle makes me only consider him as a saver. If I were Jabber I’d consider buying Petara Bay to lead!
Papal Bull, despite a good win / run ratio, that has been due to good placing. Apart from the King Ed wins have come when a class above. Whether he has the constitution to win a race like this is doubtful. Everything said about Youmzain relying on rivals is true about PB too. Takes time to hit top speed and may well get outpaced at some stage if the early fractions are slow. Ran well in the Coronation Cup, finishing strongly but he usually does, as in the Princess Of Wales. Whether he would’ve gone past the genuine Lucarno had he got to him is questionable, idles badly in front, wanders and sometimes looks none too hearty.
I believe PB has only won for Fallon and Moore. Which may be the reason the latter is likely to be on board in preference to the more straightforward Ask. Ryan might want to set the record straight too, after coming in for criticism for the Newmarket ride. Was a good price a few days ago but now represents poor value.
Lucarno is probably flattered by the run of the race in the Princess Of Wales. Did get a very soft lead there but also gave 5lbs to Papal Bull and co. His form looks a little short of top class at the moment. A big horse though, sort to improve at four and has more speed than an average Leger winner. Against a rival with mile to ten furlong pace will need a truly run mile and a half to prevail and may have to take on Coolmoore’s pacemaker to get it. Usually races prominently, pulled too hard taken on by pacemakers when finishing behind Youmzain in France. Stable is in fine form but his odds have shortened in recent days and looks too short now.
Ask could run well. Running over an inadequate trip so far this season. Well below form at Sandown despite winning and again at Ascot. However, was hampered quite badly when just beginning to stay on and not knocked about afterwards, could’ve been closer. Has a lot to find with Duke Of Marmalade on that run but Aiden’s charge may not be as good at 1m4f where as the opposite can be said about Ask.
Ask is a middle distance / stayer. At the time of his St Leger fourth it was his best performance, started 16/1 and was backed down from double that. So it definitely was not a below form run. At 1m4f plus, his record has been of constant significant improvement. Beat Scorpion at Chester on reappearance last season, showing he can race up with the pace. Quickened well clear of the rest. After injury came back with an even better run winning the Cumberland Lodge easily under a penalty.
Then came an unlucky second on firm ground in Canada. In a slowly run race he came from the rear to almost get up to beat the more prominently ridden winner. May not be up to a Prince Of Wales Stakes but why this is not seen as a proper grade 1 race is puzzling. The 3rd is a dual group 1 winner who has twice finished in front of Youmzain. Even though he acts on firm, does have a rounded splayed action which suggests he may not take much racing on it (good-firm should be o.k.).
Of all the specialist mile and a half horses Ask probably has the most speed. Needs to improve but has had little racing for a five year old and probably capable of better at this trip. Straightforward ride, drifted recently in the market hopefully due to Ryan Moore possibly being booked for his stable companion. With the two horses having a similar chance, if I was Stoute I’d want the stable jockey on the trickier ride. Of course a walk in the market could be a reaction to an injury scare or possibility of not taking part. Connections are adamant it is not and Ask looks outstanding value at around 18/1.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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