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The KG VI depends a great deal on the pace of the race. Duke Of Marmalade is on breeding far from certain to get the trip. By Danehill who was a sprinter / miler himself (by Danzig, the Northern Dancer line). Danehill’s female line does include some stamina influences, notably Ribot. Danehill’s progeny stay all sorts of distances, but usually need a stamina influence on the dams side to stay further than 10f. The Duke is out of a seven furlong winner Love Me True who is by Kingmambo, a miler who in turn is by Mr Prospector and out of Miesque (neither stamina influences). Love Me True is a sister to Shuailaan, a 1m2f winner in GB, 4th to Rodrigo De Triano in the Champion Stakes. However Shuailaan did stay further, being 4th of 7 in User Friendly’s St Leger. He was though by a much bigger stamina influence (Roberto) than Kingmambo. A half brother Bite The Bullet was a grade 2 winner in the USA at 7f. Grand dam Lassie’s Lady was also a 7f horse.
So on breeding Duke Of Marmalade probably will not stay 1m4f. However, breeding is only half the equation. He relaxes well and judging by the Prince Of Wales and Tatts Gold Cup has a good chance of doing so. If the pace is slow I believe he will stay, if fast I have sizeable doubts. I will be amazed if Coolmoore’s pacemaker does not attempt to slow the pace down. It will be up to those jockeys on stamina horses Ask, Lucarno, Papal Bull and Youmzain to press the pacemaker and make sure it is truly run. Lucarno is the obvious one to do so, though Jimmy Fortune’s comments about taking on pacemakers is not encouraging. Ask I believe would be capable of doing so, but doubt if his connections have the bottle. Papal Bull does not have the capability and Youmzain’s connections are adamant they can not do so. On form The Duke does not have so much on his rivals to warrant a price of around evens, especially with some stamina doubts.Youmzain is a middle distance / stayer. Needs at least 1m4f nowadays and may well run in the Irish St Leger after the King George. Looking at his career in the last couple of years (as a 4 and 5 year old), in fact he’s very consistent when given a true run race. The Saint Cloud, Arc, King George were all truly run. The jockey has reported twice that he has slipped on bends, at Saint Cloud last year and King Ed at three. The Coronation Cup was a muddling race, although the two “pacemakers” went a decent pace they were not followed by the principals. Pace was o.k. in Dubai this term without being “true” and although travelled well did not have a change of gear. Beaten essentially by speedier types with form at shorter distances. Also, it was on reappearance and may have needed it. The Preis Von Baden was slowly run and did not suit his style and hadn’t the speed to trouble Dylan Thomas and Notnowcato in the Tatts Gold Cup. So his best three performances since three year old days have all been in truly run races. It is strange that connections (of any horse) do not often recognise it is not necessarily a horse doing best because he’s "held up", it is often a liking for a truly run race instead. I do not say Youmzain should make the running as he does idle in front, but there is no reason why he can not be “held up” by tracking pace. With slow early sections in my opinion he has little chance of winning and would not be certain to be placed either. His chance hinges on whether others take on the pacemaker. On form Youmzain is a good bet at current prices, what price would Soldier Of Fortune have been (on good going) if he were in here? The pace angle makes me only consider him as a saver. If I were Jabber I’d consider buying Petara Bay to lead!
Papal Bull, despite a good win / run ratio, that has been due to good placing. Apart from the King Ed wins have come when a class above. Whether he has the constitution to win a race like this is doubtful. Everything said about Youmzain relying on rivals is true about PB too. Takes time to hit top speed and may well get outpaced at some stage if the early fractions are slow. Ran well in the Coronation Cup, finishing strongly but he usually does, as in the Princess Of Wales. Whether he would’ve gone past the genuine Lucarno had he got to him is questionable, idles badly in front, wanders and sometimes looks none too hearty. I believe he has only won for Fallon and Moore. Which may be the reason the latter is likely to be on board in preference to the more straightforward Ask. Ryan might want to set the record straight too, after coming in for criticism for the Newmarket ride. Was a good price a few days ago but now represents poor value.
Lucarno is probably flattered by the run of the race in the Princess Of Wales. Did get a very soft lead there but also gave 5lbs to Papal Bull and co. His form looks a little short of top class at the moment. A big horse though, sort to improve at four and has more speed than an average Leger winner. Against a rival with mile to ten furlong pace will need a truly run mile and a half to prevail and may have to take on Coolmoore’s pacemaker to get it. Usually races prominently, pulled too hard taken on by pacemakers when finishing behind Youmzain in France. Stable is in fine form but his odds have shortened in recent days and looks too short now.
Ask could run well. Running over an inadequate trip so far this season. Well below form at Sandown despite winning and again at Ascot. However, was hampered quite badly when just beginning to stay on and not knocked about afterwards, could’ve been closer. Has a lot to find with Duke Of Marmalade on that run but Aiden’s charge may not be as good at 1m4f where as the opposite can be said about Ask. Ask is a middle distance / stayer. At the time of his St Leger fourth it was his best performance, started 16/1 and was backed down from double that. So it definitely was not a below form run. At 1m4f plus, his record has been of constant significant improvement. Beat Scorpion at Chester on reappearance last season, showing he can race up with the pace. Quickened well clear of the rest. After injury came back with an even better run winning the Cumberland Lodge easily under a penalty. Then came an unlucky second on firm ground in Canada. In a slowly run race he came from the rear to almost get up to beat the more prominently ridden winner. May not be up to a Prince Of Wales Stakes but why this is not seen as a proper grade 1 race is puzzling. The 3rd is a dual group 1 winner who has twice finished in front of Youmzain. Even though he acts on firm, does have a rounded splayed action which suggests he may not take much racing on it (good-firm should be o.k.). Of all the specialist mile and a half horses Ask probably has the most speed. Needs to improve but has had little racing for a five year old and probably capable of better at this trip. Straightforward ride, drifted recently in the market hopefully due to Ryan Moore being booked for his stable companion. With the two horses having a similar chance, if I was Stoute I’d want the stable jockey on the trickier ride. Of course a walk in the market could be a reaction to an injury scare or possibility of not taking part. Connections are adamant it is not and Ask looks outstanding value at around 18/1.
Mark
Horses that drift like he has to prices that offer "outstanding value" seldom are, as there’s always a reason- either a doubt about participation or an injury scare. I’d want to see him line up before backing him at juicy prices.
BTW I thought Moore was riding Ask and Peslier Papal Bull?Lastly, I find all this pontificating about DOM staying 12f a bit perplexing- he’s won twice over 11f including on soft ground- I’ll be amazed if stamina beats him on Saturday, whatever Timeform say
Ginge,
I reckon you should break your paragraph’s up a bit more!!! I gave up half way through.
That was a good read Gingertipster as always – interesting to see how others view a race.
carvillshills – the 11f races you speak of were both actually 10.5f but the RP rounds up the distances generally.
Horses that drift like he has to prices that offer "outstanding value" seldom are, as there’s always a reason- either a doubt about participation or an injury scare. I’d want to see him line up before backing him at juicy prices.
BTW I thought Moore was riding Ask and Peslier Papal Bull?Lastly, I find all this pontificating about DOM staying 12f a bit perplexing- he’s won twice over 11f including on soft ground- I’ll be amazed if stamina beats him on Saturday, whatever Timeform say
It is not what Timeform think it is what I think. There are some big diferences in what I think and what Timeform think, I think. Though I think it would be wrong of me to tell you what Timeform think.
The assumption was there that Ryan would be on Papal Bull, which was probably why Ask drifted to around 25/1, since when he has come back in to around 15/1, after connections stated there was nothing wrong with the horse, hopefully they are right.
Don’t know when Duke Of Marmalade has run over 11 furlongs Carvills? In my form books he has never run at eleven furlongs. Has twice run ten and a half furlongs, neither of which were truly run. He has to go a full 330 yrds further on Saturday, no gimme.
Beat me to it David.
Mark
Value Is EverythingGiven the last few posts on this thread, I thought that I’d post a link to this story. What Timeform think on the King George.
http://www.sportinglife.com/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/08/07/25/manual_101334.html
My prices to beat are (for good-firm):
Duke Of Marmalade 6/4
Youmzain 7/2
Ask 7/1
Lucarno 17/2
Papal Bull 13/1
Macarther 16/1
Petara Bay 500/1
Red Rock Canyon 1000/1I know it adds up to 99 not 100% but some are rated slightly higher (in percentages e.g 40.5% The Duke. And if it is only marginal value I would not back it.
Ask is a must bet in my opinion, more than double my price is available.
Love to know what other members views prices to beat are.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI have this, quite boringly, between the top 2 in the market, i cant really see anything else getting close to be honest.
The only question mark over Duke of Marmalade is can he handle an extra furlong. He didn’t seem to be stopping last time out at Ascot, so you would have thought that he would get the step up in trip.
The pace that Red Rock Canyon sets, will be key. I dont really think it will be in duke of Marmalade’s advantage if Red Rock Canyon goes off at a blistering pace, i think they will utilise him as a ‘slower’ pacemaker.
Youmzain is the only other horse that i think could get near Duke of Marmalade if the favourite isn’t going to win tomorrow.
The horse is effective over 12 furlongs, has course form and has finished behind some very good horses, i.e. Dylan Thomas, et al.
I do think Richard Hughes might need to kick on a bit sooner on Youmzain though, as previous rides have seen the horse finishing with a decent stride, but not quite getting his head infront.
If there is a slowish pace tomorrow and Duke of Marmalade handles the step up in trip, then he will win in my opinion, with Youmzain second.
Gaz, I think "blistering pace" might be overstating Youmzain’s finishing effort.
Just a thought!
Colin
Gaz, I think "blistering pace" might be overstating Youmzain’s finishing effort.
Just a thought!
Colin
Possibly.
Just trying to make my point.
Based on Gintertipsters analysis (thanks!), I’m going e/w on ASK for my sins.
Hope the thanks is justified after the race mate.
Mark
Value Is Everything143 youmzain
139 duke of marmalade
137 macarthur
136 lucarno
127 ask
126 papal bull
114 petara bay
113 redrock canyonwill back youmzain to win
macarthur each wayNot really had much of a look at the race but Duke of Marmalade should have the field nicely SPREADED and aslong as he does not get in a JAM should win with plenty of ZEST.
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