- This topic has 386 replies, 69 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Just wanted to post to say thanks to Bosranic for his excellent preview and analysis of the race – thank you. An enjoyable and informative read. Nothing I can add that you haven’t covered!
Given the strength of the field it should be a great race. My money is already on Long Run and I will likely back him again on the day too. While I’d love to see Kauto do it for a historic 5th time it has to be the young champion for me.
Congratulations!!! JJM you just won our anual Xmas Chancer award Such a pity Wishful thinking isn’t running you could have added him to the AbNoFuCh list.
Nacarat could run well I suppose as he often does when he’s got things 100% in his favour but Golan Way? he would need to improve 3 stone and then some. If they were running a book on horses that will be pulled up he’d be the best bet of the day.
I’ve been backing Kauto for week and could lay him off and make over 20% profit but I’m sticking with him because I’m a sentimental old fool.
Logically speaking though by process of elimination Captain Chris could be an absolute certainty for this and as Bos says the start of a new era.
Long Run won well last year but let’s face it the race fell apart when Kauto Star obviously wasn’t himself. Long Run left to his own devices jumps pretty well it’s not until either daft Sam decides to ask him for a big one when it’s not really required or when he comes under pressure.
If you watch the mistake that possibly cost him any chance he had at Haydock it was 100% Sam’s fault. He had lost a little ground on Kauto and Sam instead of letting the horse get over the fence and then make up the ground tries to do an Arkle and make up 3 lengths in the air. Considering Long Run’s jumping record that’s as stupid as it gets. Not saying he should be replaced it’s his horse but that was one silly mistake the likes of which Ruby would never ever make on a dodgy jumper who was still travelling well.
There is no doubt about it Long Run asked to do anything out of the ordinary makes a hash of things and is a dangerous horse to be trusting.
What put’s me against him is this years renewal. It’s a much much better looking race and with Master Minded one of the best jumpers of a fence in training in the field Long Run could be in trouble very quickly.
Someone suggested team work and I said no way but while running on his own merit Master Minded is likely to be going stride for stride with Long Run for the best part of the race. The pressure on Long Run to be foot perfect will be immense and I doubt if he will cope. On those grounds he’s eliminated.
Master Minded is too good and too fast at 2 miles to 2 /12 miles to be getting the trip which means he can’t win. Eliminated.
Kauto Star
don’t want to eliminate him but they say he’s past his best Haydock was his gold cup race comes too quick. No horse can possibly win 5 King George’s over a 6 year period. C’Mon! that’s gotta be impossible eliminatedDiamond Harry: Lovely horse but when push comes to shove he lacks that little bit extra top class chaser have. He’s just below top class and shouldn’t win. Eliminated.
Somersby: Could take advantage if everything else runs below par but that’s the only real chance of success he has. He could easily be in the 3 simply because he’s reliable but I’d want about 6 for a place to back him. Eliminated
Golan Way. Less said about him the better he’ll be pulled up. Total waste of time and money running him. Eliminated
Nacarat: Finished so far behind Kauto Star a couple of years back he can’t possibly win. If Kauto has gone backwards it would appear this 10 year old has regressed even more. Eliminated
Captain Chris
: Even before he ran in the Arkle this was his long term target. Racing over a trip far too short for him he beat Finian’s Rainbow who pre Sprinter Sacre was regarded as one of the best if not thee best young chaser Nicky has ever had.
That performance which was nothing short of amazing in my book puts him right up there with the very best. He was all over the winner until falling at the last on his reappearance and would not be running today unless Philip Hobbs thought he was spot on.
Captain Chris is the most logical bet in the race and even if only for a place he’s a much safer bet than the favourite to win.
Also Captain Chris/Kauto Star rfc could pay a very good dividend.
Most sensible thing I could do is lay some of my Kauto Star bet of f, back Captain Chris and have the same amount coming back should either win.
So That’s what I’m doing. and all that without a single
%
mentioned.
Ginger will be proud of me
Hello all…..my first post on here (so be gentle with me)
I have to say that I am impressed with the standard of the reports on here, this looks like the most professional racing forum I have been on.
So that being said, here’s my tuppence worth. I’m afraid it’s not very original, but I can’t see anything getting near Long Run. Now I accept that he ploughed through more than a few fences in the Betfair, and did not look as sharp as Kauto regardless of that. Paul Nichols made it clear that this was the first time he trained Kauto Star for the race, it was always a stepping stone towards the King George.
Nicky Henderson also made it clear that although Long Run was fit, he had left a bit to do with him, as he was being aimed at the King George and Gold Cup.
Kauto Star is a legend, absolutely no doubt. On his day he is still a force to be reckoned, but on his day at 11 and Long Run on his day at 6, I think there is only one winner. Even with his faults, Long Run managed to win the King George and Gold Cup last year. No horse does that without being an exceptional horse. I know excuses, perhaps fairly, were put up for Kauto Star last year, but he wasn’t the only horse in those races and Long Run trounced them on both occasions.
I know they are still working on his jumping, he is untidy, but even so he has never looked like falling, and never has. I do remember emailing into Mark Chapman in the box at attheraces, voicing concerns over Sam Waley-Cohen before the Gold cup, I said then that I would rather see Barry Geraghty on him, I still would. It’s not that Sam is not a good horseman, he is, but I feel the horse would benefit from a great jockey like Geraghty.
So, even with Sam aboard and even with his sketchy jumping at times, I still think he is the best horse by a good way. I dare say the King George will either make me look very wise…..or a complete plonker. Either way, I can’t wait for it.
Have a merry Christmas all
Hello all…..my first post on here (so be gentle with me)
I have to say that I am impressed with the standard of the reports on here, this looks like the most professional racing forum I have been on.
So that being said, here’s my tuppence worth. I’m afraid it’s not very original, but I can’t see anything getting near Long Run. Now I accept that he ploughed through more than a few fences in the Betfair, and did not look as sharp as Kauto regardless of that. Paul Nichols made it clear that this was the first time he trained Kauto Star for the race, it was always a stepping stone towards the King George.
Nicky Henderson also made it clear that although Long Run was fit, he had left a bit to do with him, as he was being aimed at the King George and Gold Cup.
Kauto Star is a legend, absolutely no doubt. On his day he is still a force to be reckoned, but on his day at 11 and Long Run on his day at 6, I think there is only one winner. Even with his faults, Long Run managed to win the King George and Gold Cup last year. No horse does that without being an exceptional horse. I know excuses, perhaps fairly, were put up for Kauto Star last year, but he wasn’t the only horse in those races and Long Run trounced them on both occasions.
I know they are still working on his jumping, he is untidy, but even so he has never looked like falling, and never has. I do remember emailing into Mark Chapman in the box at attheraces, voicing concerns over Sam Waley-Cohen before the Gold cup, I said then that I would rather see Barry Geraghty on him, I still would. It’s not that Sam is not a good horseman, he is, but I feel the horse would benefit from a great jockey like Geraghty.
So, even with Sam aboard and even with his sketchy jumping at times, I still think he is the best horse by a good way. I dare say the King George will either make me look very wise…..or a complete plonker. Either way, I can’t wait for it.
Have a merry Christmas all
HurdyGurdyMan-
I just did it as process of elimination. I don’t think Master Minded/Captain Chris/Somersby will stay, Diamond Harry runs best when fresh on soft ground, and Kauto ran his race at Haydock.
HurdyGurdyMan-
I just did it as process of elimination. I don’t think Master Minded/Captain Chris/Somersby will stay, Diamond Harry runs best when fresh on soft ground, and Kauto ran his race at Haydock.
The only problem is Master Minded Captain Chris and Somersby would not only have to not stay they would have to stop completely for Golan Way to pass them and as he will be pulled up around 3 out that could present him with a problem.
You get stuck in mate you never know.
A fine preview Bosranic, thanks.
Mr Nicholls. Is a master trainer but also a master of excuses. If KS was making a noise last season, it suggests he had breathing problems. As wizard of the wind op, PFN, knows that such problems do not resolve themselves. I thought he’d resist running KS here and save him for a Gold Cup curtain call. But I understand C Smith was strongly in favour of a KG run. I think they will regret their actions come Monday eve.
I was more impressed by LR at Haydock than in either of his championship wins. He missed every fence bar the last one going down the back on circuit two. To do that and still be in contention is astonishing IMO. He made 4 errors winning his Gold Cup and must be very brave as well as powerful. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win this after a handful of mistakes.
Diamond Harry is too big and gangly to be suited by Kempton IMO. It will be his first run right handed. Also, his jock has deserted him to ride at Wetherby
MM is about 10lbs overrated, I think, and always has been. Same applies to Somersby due to his frequent runs against MM. Cap Chris could be anything and I will be having a small bet on him just in case.
Golan Way EW without LR was recommended at 40s a while back and though that price has gone, I’d still choose that as the best bet. Normally a reliable jumper, he is very gutsy, built for Kempton, improving and will hopefully battle on for place money.
Long Run with Geraghty onboard wins this by ten lengths easy
It’s the moment you’ve been waiting for, folks. No, not Christmas day, but my tip for the king George!
As McCoy says in his recent WillHill podcast (http://whdn.williamhill.com/cms/images/ … DayPod.mp3): "Heart says Kauto Star, head says Long Run."
I would agree with that, but…I’m going to take a different angle, similar to some recent posters on this thread.
Captain Chris
has been crying out for a trip since he began chasing and his considerable achievements at 2 miles have been a bonus.
He is a cracking EW bet to be the new superstar. He jumps well, will hack off the pace and will battle like a tiger at the end.
If you have 4/1 EW or bigger about King Kauto then that really is a great bet to nothing IMO, he will be placed and could beat Long Run again as he beat him fairly easily at Haydock. Ultimately, it is too difficult to call between those two IMHO.
As for Master Minded, I think he’ll be paddling 3 fences out and may not even finish. The rest are not good enough – I really think Nacarat should be saved for another day as this is way beyond him now.
Let’s hope there are no fateful twists to rob us of an epic finish.
Deep down, I hope it’s a fairy tale one
Zip
"Hurdygurdyman" wrote: The only problem is Master Minded Captain Chris and Somersby would not only have to not stay they would have to stop completely for Golan Way to pass them and as he will be pulled up around 3 out that could present him with a problem.
I have to laugh the way some have written off MM as a non-stayer because ‘he’s too fast’.
Seriously?
The only reason Master Minded doesn’t stay Kempton 3m in good ground is if he doesn’t settle and doesn’t get into his rhythm.
I still remember Desert Orchid going off at 16/1 for his first win, because of people thinking just that way.
The way he won the Melling Chase at Aintree suggests that he’s every bit as good as he was in 2008.
In fact his record suggests he no longer has the pace for 2miles and that the step up to 3m is only natural as it was in Dessie’s case.
If you take out his 2nd in the Melling in 2008 where he bounced 3 weeks after a career best performance, 3rd to Well Chief (Fractured Rib), and his season bow this season where he clearly wasn’t fit, the only races he’s been beaten in are 2 Champikn chases on good going, where it was all a little bit too fast for him.
IF he is at his best tomorrow, then his best is all but level with Long Run and 3 to 4l better than Kauto Star has actually shown for 2 years despite his Betfair win.
When you take into account the doubts about the others:
Long Run will he really come on in fitness 8 lengths on the Betfair Running? Will he miss out a fence or otherwise make a bad mistake that ruins his chances?
Kauto Star. Will he Bounce after his Betfair Chase? Is he properly fit for this or is he now overtrained, will he burst a blood vessel again? Even if not he requires that neither Long Run or Master Minded run to their best, or that he surpasses his Betfair form if he’s going to win tomorrow.
Capatain Chris is the unknown in this race, but Hobbs doesn’t get many horses at the top of the Pyramid and I would be loath to back him finding a stone to put him ahead of the other three.
Golan Way will have to be kept on the outside of the pack when mulling around at the start. With Marc Goldstein keeping on flicking GW in the belly with his feet, to keep Ms West’s charge interested. Will there be a return to Wincers waywardness? Trouble is with Nacarat in the field, is unlikely to get a soft lead in front either. I backed him last time, but that was a weak race in which he was always going to lead. Benbane Head jumped awful yet still managed second, Boston’s Angel well below RSA form. Even if able to get away on terms and hold off Nacarat, Kauto will want to attack from some way out. Probably go backwards after passed and in the ruck. I don’t see this being Golan Way’s type of race.
Around a 0.1% (fair 1000/1) chance of winning in my opinion. (Sorry Colin
)Value Is EverythingHey everyone – Happy Christmas!
Hope to make my first post a profitable one
I’m sticking a nifty on Long Run tomorrow and hope to secure at least 11/8
Kauto Star, as much as I love the old boy, won’t win and is as definite a lay as you can get @ 4/1. He probably won’t make it home. Even if he runs as well as he did in the Betfair he won’t win. Kempton is far too sharp a course.
Master Minded won’t stay and the market knows it.
Somersby, Golan Way and Nacarat are irrelevant.
Diamond Harry is overrated on his Hennessy win. He beat a Denman in receipt of 26pounds on soft ground. 158 looks around his mark. However, what he does have to his advantage is that he is pretty uncomplicated. He’ll stay the trip and enjoy Kempton. He didn’t have any excuses against Kauto and Co last time out but he will come on for the run. He looks each-way value.
Captain Chris looks interesting. 7/1 is a shade too big I would say. If Dicky Johnson hadn’t unseated on him last time out I would think he would have won by a couple of lengths. On that basis he looks 165+. However, the big doubt is over whether he stays. My opinion? He probably will but Long Run will just have a bit too much for him.
1). Long Run
2). Captain Chris
3). Diamond HarryBe lucky!
Hey everyone – Happy Christmas!
Hope to make my first post a profitable one
I’m sticking a nifty on Long Run tomorrow and hope to secure at least 11/8
Kauto Star, as much as I love the old boy, won’t win and is as definite a lay as you can get @ 4/1. He probably won’t make it home. Even if he runs as well as he did in the Betfair he won’t win. Kempton is far too sharp a course.
Master Minded won’t stay and the market knows it.
Somersby, Golan Way and Nacarat are irrelevant.
Diamond Harry is overrated on his Hennessy win. He beat a Denman in receipt of 26pounds on soft ground. 158 looks around his mark. However, what he does have to his advantage is that he is pretty uncomplicated. He’ll stay the trip and enjoy Kempton. He didn’t have any excuses against Kauto and Co last time out but he will come on for the run. He looks each-way value.
Captain Chris looks interesting. 7/1 is a shade too big I would say. If Dicky Johnson hadn’t unseated on him last time out I would think he would have won by a couple of lengths. On that basis he looks 165+. However, the big doubt is over whether he stays. My opinion? He probably will but Long Run will just have a bit too much for him.
1). Long Run
2). Captain Chris
3). Diamond HarryBe lucky!
For an 8 runner race you could argue a case for 6 of them,thats how good this years King George looks on paper.
Diamond Harry
owes me nothing,i was lucky to catch him right once,unfortunately i now believe he has the weakest will to win of the 6 and 16/1 even with Geraghty on board is wasted money imo.
Master Minded
,27 runs before he tackles 3 miles for the 1st time tells me they are clutching at straws.
Long Run
,worthy fav but i’m no fan of his jockey now he tells Pork Pies and still the achilles heel to this horses chances,2/1 would be too big though!
Captain Chris
looks like this trip will show him in his true colours,i see him as a massive danger and 33/1 to win both the King George and Gold Cup is worth the risk,if he does win tomorrow he goes 7/2 for Cheltenham.
Kauto Star
,having never backed him ever and having seen him go off an odds on fav for this race for the past 5yrs i would suggest that any loyal fan fills their boots at 7/4 (without Long Run),thats an incredible price for his die hard supporters.My idea of the winner has to be
Somersby
,there are still genuine reasons for shouting this ones chances.His trainer will have him Cherry ripe for the 1st time this season tomorrow on ground that he will bounce off,the pace of the race will allow his jockey to just let him pop away,his form through Medermit tells you he’s on a par with Captain Chris but trades at twice the price as does his form with Master Minded.Kauto Stars bubble will burst at some point as he really is getting on now so you look at Long Run the Even money fav as the one to beat and if Somersby meets his match but finishes 2nd to the current Gold Cup winner then the 9/1 with Sporting Index in the (without Long Run) market is massive,just my opinion.
Looking back on last years race Long Run had nothing to beat and this year renewal looks a much much stronger race.
It must be said he won by so far last season perhaps it doesn’t matter that Kauto ran about 2 stone below his best and he’ll still outrun a much more talented field today.
The big question isn’t whether the ageing Kauto will beat Long Run again or vice versa it’s whether either of them can handle the new kid on the block. Their current form is against each other and regarding as the best if we go by ratings but no one really knows what to expect from Captain Chris.
Not saying he will ever reach the heights Kauto has but the potential there to become as good or better than Long Run.
On all known form this is a 2 horse race in reality it may end up a 3 horse race or even 4 if master Minded gets the trip.
The likes of Somersby Golan Way and Nacarat who simply don’t have the class are totally dependable on 3 of the big 4 running stinkers to finish runner up and 2 of them to fall by the wayside to get a place.
This is such a high class field only Bengal lancers would back any of them to do so.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.