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Why isn’t Changingoftheguard clear favourite?
2/1 or 15/8 I’ll have some of that!
Value Is EverythingBecause he ran 13 days ago and it’s gd to firm ground maybe?
He should be odds on looking at the ratings as he has plenty in hand
If changingoftheguard runs to his mark he will win, if he improves on his mark he will win easily
But will he, I’d wager he had a pretty hard race at Epsom having made the running
The question is whether the price takes that into account
He might be one I back if iv had a good day and leave alone if its been a bad one
Admittedly backing up from the Derby isn’t easy so may not be “on song”. Race times on Derby day suggest it was good-firm so this shouldn’t be any different to Epsom and ran a fair race there. His action is more of a sound surface animal than soft. Used pretty much as a pacemaker – going too fast too early – But not given an overly hard time once out of the first three. Had he missed Epsom would be odds-on here. possibly long odds-on. Can still win this if not running to form. Changingoftheguard may be able to dictate too.
Lysander and Dark Moon Rising have led before but are more prominent / track pace than proper front runners. Don’t think either one of those two’s stamina limitations would be suited by taking on Changingoftheguard up front. Lysander only third best in the Cocked Hat and of the three I’d say the least needy of a step up in trip.
Only twice raced Ottoman Fleet has potential to improve but needs to in order to get near an on song Changingoftheguard. Godawful runner has been green if not temperamental / slowly away / stumbled and could be 10 lengths behind the Coolmore’s runner in no time.
Grand Alliance and Savoy Victory were a long way behind Changingoftheguard in the Derby and Chester Vase respectively. Latter only beaten 1 3/4 lengths last time by Ottoman Fleet, 12 1/2 by Changingoftheguard. Although Savoy didn’t appear to stay that day., which makes it difficult for him here.
Dark Moon Rising surely doesn’t deserve to be the outsider of this party? After being a bit free at 1m2f is a doubtful stayer. However, was fourth in the Dante and beaten fewer lengths by Desert Crown than Changingoftheguard was in the Derby. Even with improvement of the Derby winner and Changingoftheguard’s probably being below form at Epsom, is an interesting stat. Me thinks Worth a speculative wager at around 25/1.
Value Is Everything“The question is whether the price takes that into account”.
That’s the thing, it has imo allowed far too much for the chance of Changingoftheguard being significantly enough below his best that he fails to win. 5/4 I wouldn’t take, 6/4 close. but 15/8.
A better or worse chance than 35% chance?Or put it the other way around, does he really have more than a 65% chance of running so far below form not to win?
Value Is EverythingI still think Changingoftheguard might be best on a softer surface than he will get today.
I had him running to a better number at Chester than at Epsom.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I backed him in the Derby and was particularly dissapointed with how little he found
It’s very possible he’s not actually that good
Ryan did give him an excellent ride at Chester
Don’t really trust ottoman fleet he seems quirky enough so looking a no bet for me
What do we think of lysander?
Will he be better on this ground
There’s a chance he could be as both the sire and dam sire have high strike rates on gd to firm
He’s going to need to improve but he’s only had 3 starts so very possible
In the Derby Changingoftheguard went too quick early; basically being used as a pacemaker and not doing equal fractions. Therefore the form not as good as Chester. Didn’t have as much left for the closing stages. Also jockey not hard on him once out of the placings.
Still possible Changingoftheguard is better on softer, but horses with his action are rarely worse on good-firm.
Value Is EverythingLysander is certainly with the right trainer and should go on the ground, FF. At the moment although he is improving it seems only a steady progression rather than in leaps and bounds. So the going change probably has to work wonders. Looking at his last time out run in the Listed Cocked Hat, can’t say he was at all unlucky in third. Maybe would’ve been better suited by a stronger pace but that applies even more to the winner Lionel. Both Lionel and Aidous Huxley are (or were) better horses on the day. Also currently seems the weakest in the betting – which is unusual if he’s a fancied Highclere horse – but tbh his price doesn’t appear at all value to my eyes. Fairly certain he’ll race prominently, but – with Changingoftheguard there – his position is unlikely to help. Shouldn’t be good enough to win an average standard King Ed’, but (Changingoftheguard aside) this looks a weak renewal.
Value Is Everything“The worst I can remember in recent years”.
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For that reason Dark Moon Rising keeps attracting my eye. Might go in again!
4th to Desert Crown in the Dante and may have been closer still had he not been keen early.
5th has come out and ran well yesterday, closeish 3rd in the Hampton Court.
Current OR is better than Lysander, Grand Alliance and Savvy Victory.
If settling – which may be a problem upped in trip – could spring a surprise.Value Is EverythingFair comment from GT.
Time and time again when horses face a tougher task, are asked to go that half stride quicker than their comfort zones allows, if it breaks them it usually breaks them big time and they don’t run to as big an overall figure as they would have done if conservatively ridden simply to achieve the best possible (and probably losing) position.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"An upset does look very possible
May even be worth backing all 3 outsiders against the fancied 3
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