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Suspect TTM you’re right about a couple of days more recovery time for Changingoftheguard were important. Possibly another couple of furlongs would’ve been a harder race for a horse they were struggling to get fit after Epsom.. Can’t believe they thought Anchorage good enough to win the Vase. Maybe just didn’t have anything else for this and thought it would be a better race to win for stallion purposes but that’s hard to believe after winning all those Derby trials.
Backed him antepost for the Leger after the Derby and had thought about looking to do the same for the Vase. Good job I didn’t because hadn’t occurred to me he’d end up in this.
I see some firms have shortened him in to second fav for the Irish Derby. Others have lengthened him to third fav. That’s only 8 days away! You’d think he needs both a rest and a step up in trip now.
That said, there aren’t many good options for a Leger prep now he’s a Group 2 winner. Can’t see him taking on Kyprios and co in the Goodwood Cup unless replacing Kyprios. There’s the Irish St Leger Trial might be best, but that’s a group 3 and will need to give away a penalty. Great Voltigeur but that’s still at 1m4f.
Value Is EverythingI’d guess you might see him at York. I’d doubt they’d pull him out next weekend but you never know, they might feel is worth the gamble.
It seems to me that O’Brien races his horses more frequently nowadays and I’ve heard that – contrary to popular belief (including mine tbh) – he very much calls the shots with Coolmore in that regard.
Wouldn’t actually shock me if Changingoftheguard ran in the Irish Derby, but I’d say it’s unlikely.
The Grand Prix De Paris is a race I thought might have suited him as there’s usually a bit of cut at Longchamp.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Grand Prix De Paris is a good shout, Ian. When is it? Middle of July? Although I believe Changingoftheguard goes on good-firm, softer going should place more emphasis on stamina at 12f.
Value Is EverythingPeople on social media saying this was a “brilliant ride”. Far from it. Take a look at the sectionals, with the final furlong being by far the slowest shows it almost cost Changingoftheguard the race. Ryan did not get to the line in the quickest time possible. Obviously this horse needs a stamina test at that trip on that ground, so needed to go a fast pace. But had he done anything like even fractions would’ve done a faster time. In an overly strongly run race like this, the horse who’s running nearer optimum fractions is the one showing the least exertion early, Grand Alliance at the back of the field who – the sectionals show – is flattered by his proximity to the winner.
Value Is EverythingIl eat my hat if that horse could even win a weak group 1 this season
He should’ve been beat by a 98 rated horse yesterday who had also run in the Derby so also had a quick turn around
FF,
Grand Alliance is a temperamental sort – and flattered by how the race was run – but are you really not giving him any credit for improving in a first time visor?Value Is Everything
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