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Mr Killjoy here (see earlier post from MrE)!<br>Thanks Keith the Teeth for the support! You hit the nail on the head – despite what MrE seems to think I am a systems person through and through. I believe it is possible to make money from systems.<br>I’ve spent a lot of time (about 4 years now) collecting data that will enable me to find them and I do have some interesting possibilities which I will share when I’m happy with them.
However I’ve also seen a lot of systems that have worked for 6 months, a year or even longer, and then just collapsed, so I was trying to make the point that you must keep records and monitor things in order to keep in profit.
Darrell’s majestic system is a case in point. He’s had a wonderful few months since he started in the autumn and even won the tipping competition as a result, but running the same system back to the beginning of 2000 shows it to be a long term loser. I reckon since Sept, the system has made over 50pts to level stakes. To the middle of November it was about 80pts, but there was a poor run into December which has now levelled out. However, from Jan 1st 2000 to Sep 2001 I reckon it was down about 350pts!
(Matron/Daylight – is there any way you can put graphs up on the forum – a .bmp or .gif? It would be most revealing to show people what I mean – much easier than describing in words…)
There is a lot of positive comment on Darrell’s thread and I think it’s important to sound a warning note. By all means follow it while it’s working but be prepared to bail out when a losing run starts…
MrE makes some interesting points. This isn’t one of them, I quote (see first favourite thread):
"we gotta few doubters on board and I’d love to sink my hoof up their botty’s, at least up to the fetlock"
…not the best way to encourage debate.
However the fact that MrE has been using a similar system to Matron’s First favourite successfully for 9 years is excellent news and gives us all confidence that it is worth searching for profitable systems.
I just believe you need a lot of data before you can be certain of finding a winning formula.
I have one other point: reading the First Favourite thread it became clear that it is a very subjective system which requires quite a knowledge and experience about horse-racing, based around a simple system rule. The subjectivity is clear in the way Matron and MrE, applying the same system (i.e. first favourite), seem to disagree as much as they agree (when they incorporate their own gut feelings onto the system rule). Can it really be called a system when it’s so subjective?<br>Surely a system is a formula which anyone with any knowledge can apply and always get the same selection(s)?
(Edited by Steve SB at 10:37 pm on Dec. 29, 2001)
Hi Steve, you seem to intimate from your post that I’m a bit argumentative or would discourage debate…. NOT GUILTY….. as most of my posts carry a smiley of one form or another surely (dont call me Shirley) shows that I show no animosity or inkindly thoughts towards any soul on here (except Urb….. hehehe). I enjoy promoting a chuckle or two amongst our fellow members and if I thought anybody took umbrage, I’d stop immediately….<br>As for mine and Matrons differences, its only a few filters that I use (especially during the flat) and the fact that he selects his from the "Beano"…..<br>:smiley: :smiley:<br>I have had a lot of experience with systems and I have found a number of them to be profitable which a lot of people dont believe, I just try to keep all options open… my post wasn’t knocking you or any of the others Steve, it was intended to put my point of view over in what I thought was a tactful and (in the case of fetlock and botty), a jocular manner….. my apologies if it caused a gnashing of teeth… Oooops, sorry Kieth….. hehehe….<br>:armbounce:  :biggrin:
MrE
Oh Steve, I forgot to answer that other comment about people who use the same system should select the same horse WITHOUT FAIL…. you are absolutely correct cos its hardly a "system" if you go your own way regardless, but in all fairness in Matrons case, he is using a different paper with a different format. That is not controlable really, thats down to personal preference. When I first was shown the system, it was using the Sporting Life and after that paper disappeared I had to use the Racing Post, it could’ve made a difference, luckily it didn’t, but it shows that even using papers with varying formats, we still both come out winners…… Now thats gotta be the sign of a good sound system…… I hope……  :biggrin: :biggrin:
MrE
All,
Appolgies for the dreadful spellin in my previous post. As is the case most of the time, I am always in a rush! I find this thread particularly interesting. Is this something we could discuss in the chatroom sometime?
I am a fan of Mordin "God" IMO. He is a true sysemite, and the first thing he asks himself when thinking of rules for a system is "Is this obvious to the public?" If he thinks it is, he abandons his research, and starts again.
I think highly of him for his teachings of methods of form study away ffrom the norm. I read a thread only yesterday @ Betfair where he was slated and admired by different people.
I could throw together half a dozen systems that for the past six years have shown massive profits, using RSB, and I would bet anyone on here any amount of money most of the manufactured systems would lose money the very next year.
I am very open minded, and would dearly love to be convinced that there was "an easy" way to make money from backing horses.
Regards & Good Luck<br>Jake<br>
If you set up a page on excel and listed the results of every type of race at every track so will see that after every season that some trainers will make an overall profit in that type of race. If you do this for at least three seasons you willl see that there are trainers that can make overall profits in the same type of race at the same track season after season.<br>I have years and years of these stats as I can live solely from this system it works much easier on the N.H.<br>THAN THE FLAT as more trainers in N.H racing can make overall profits at the end of every season.
I was selling a book on the net just doing this I OFFERED A FULL 100% MONEY BACK gurantee that if after a season you were out of pocket I would refund the money in full. That is how confident I am of the system. A racing service now pay me to use the selections and I do not wish to do ANY ADVERTSING so will not mention the name whatsoever.<br>The prob with punters if they go through any losing spell they soon give up and the need to have a bettiung bank is the top of any list and aso patience and discipline they are all free.<br>Lets take M.PIPE for example you will lose overall backing every runner of his but the last sixseasons he has made a onerall profit in every type of non handicap race at Plumpton and the total for the last five seasons is 53 points .The system is basically betting on whether or not the trainer will make an overall profit in the fourth season after already having done so the pervios three. Surely better than just guessing at something!
The method also shows you races where although th trainer may have a short price fav it will be unlikely to win. For example TERRY MILLS trains at Epsom but he went over six season s there without having a winner yet on one day a year ago he had two odds on favs both get beat!<br>N. Henderson had a run of over 50 runners at Aintree without a winner but this season he has done a litle better. Mary Reveley has had nearly 100 runners at Cheletenham with one winner yet last season an odds on runner of hers finished last Oct Mist.<br>what do you think of this method then.<br>It took over 3000 hours inputting just the N.H. by the way there used to be a book published by M.L. Midgely and he made overall profits for 16 seasons but when he dided I had to do it myself<br>regards<br>
Seagull,
That’s a great post, and I’m glad you shared it with us.<br>Handicapping trainers (as called in the USA) is something that interests me. I read a book (USA biased) BY A GUY CALLED John Whitaker, who identifies trainer trends, and trys to put these into loose system form. The setup of racing here is very different, so a lot of what he writes is not aplicable at all, still interesting though.
You have certainly provided food for thought Seagull.
Regards & Good Luck<br>Jake<br>
Yeah, I have to agree,<br>Anyone who picks horses by looking at any data has a systematic approach, the only difference is with a system the rules are rigid and although this may throw up the odd donkey it does take the emotion out of the selection process.
Sorry,this post should be placed at the end of the last page! (you can tell I’m new on here!)<br>
(Edited by Obiwan at 11:35 am on Dec. 30, 2001)
Steve SB,
A gif can be shown by uploading it to webspace (if you don’t own any email it to features@trftalk.com) and the use the ikoncode which would be (minus the stars*)
[img*]webaddress of your gif img here[/img*]
Jake<br>the books dealing with this can be purchased from Browsers site on the web they cost a few pounds but they are all s hand look for trainers for course by M.L. Midgeley.<br>It does take some fun out of it but who wants to bet for fun there are millions that do that every day and surely to have a decent chance of winniung that is what you should not do<br>regards
I am pleased that this debate has gone into further territory and it is certainly interesting reading.
Look forward to the graphs Steve SB to illustrate your points.
<br>Regards – Matron<br>:cool:<br>
Steve SB
The problem with following a certain system is that the money management side of it has to just be as inportant as the system itself I expect losing runs but I have five seasons of results they all show losing runs but they also show an overall profit.<br>Many may think just backing Man United for example could be a system but they have been in a recent losing <br>spell it doe not mean however that the system is no good.<br>In any system be it the stockmarket or betting on Tiger Woods to win golf tournaments there will always be a bad run in there somewhere it does not meant the method has gone wrong but followers bail ship in mid channel then sea the boat has got the engine running again but they are left swimming in mid ocean.<br>
MrE likes to "blow knockers" Manny.
Especially, when there is a full moon. :laugh:
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:
Mr E – thanks for the reply – no hard feelings – I guess I’d had a bad day – no luck on the horses and then my footy team, who need points desperately, go and let in a last minute equaliser against 9-men (Leicester if you’re interested!).
This is a really interesting thread and shows real promise for systems which is very pleasing.
Seagull’s post was very interesting. I’ve run through my data and sure enough Mr Pipe makes a healthy profit on anything non-handicap at Plumpton. 22 points over the last 2 years which doesn’t sound much but over only 47 runners it’s about a 47% profit on turnover.
Even better is Ascot where he’s made 18 points from 36 rides which is over 50% p.o.t. He’s also made a profit on handicap races at Ascot of 44 points over 63 runners – a 70% p.o.t.
Only downside is that my database is only 2 years which means the samples are a bit small – I’d like to have at least 150 runners if not 200 to be more certain which means 7-8 years of data. Seagull mentions that he has many years of data and things are consistent so that gives more confidence to the results.
My question is why this happens? Is it that certain training methods suit particular courses?
Manny’s ideas were also interesting. A quick look at the system where the horse closest to 10/1 is chosen from any 8-runner, handicap looks to have broken about even over the last 2 years (without some work I could only pick horses at exactly 10/1 in 8-runner handicaps – there may be races where no horses are 10/1, or occasions where more than one horse was 10/1, but it gives an idea. Interestingly if you added the rule that the horse must NOT have won at that course or distance before then the system was about 50 points up since Jan 2000…….).
I also agree with Seagull’s point about money management. Losing runs are unavoidable and even a system with a 30% strike rate will get a lot of losing runs of 10 and over. The key is to have the confidence<br>a) to keep following the system otherwise you will miss the next winner<br>b) not to start changing the rules and betting on things that just don’t quite make it into the system.
As ever, records and self-control! It’s the latter I find most difficult!
In this respect having a mixture of profitable systems on the go would seem the ideal solution.
Anyway, I’m going to try out Daylight’s instructions for posting up graphs – wish me luck…
Steve
Hi again Steve, good post….. I think we gotta blame old Jake for starting this thread, methinks he’s got a big stick with which to furkle the effluent…..  :biggrin:<br>It snow good you hiding your face Jake, come back here. Matrons got a wet towel handy, smack him Matron……<br>:smiley: :smiley:
MrE
As I said in a previous post which was wiped by the server crash, in the end all systems will fail, its just a case of how long it takes.  Some people say they have systems that have worked for many years, for me the thing that counts is not the length of time a system has worked but the number of bets.  If you have a system that has one selection a day you will have about 300 bets a year.  I have looked at systems that work well for 2000 bets and then go the shape of the pear for the next 1000.  So you could have a system that works for seven years then doesn’t for the next three.  Nothing is forever, nothing stays the same, you must exploit a system while you can but know when is the right time to bail out. ÂÂÂ
Trainers can be predictable for a number of years then all of a sudden the wheels fall off.  Spotting a trend as it starts can be very profitable, jumping on a bandwagon means you are too late.
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Now thats what I like, a post thats jam packed with optimism…… Jeeeez, I know my hearts gonna stop pumping one day but that aint gonna stop me milking the years I got left. We all are aware that nothing lasts forever, thats why its called gambling, but a few "lucky" years can set you up for life…. I’ve had holidays paid for by the bookie for a few years now and I couldn’t have afforded them without the help of my system….. how does that old saying go… "make hay while the sun shines"…..  people enjoy reaping the benefits of their hard work, dont degrade ’em Kieth…….. and just in case this should be taken in the wrong context, enclosed is another smiley……<br>:smiley:  :smiley:
MrE
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