Kerry National 2019

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This topic contains 33 replies, has 15 voices, and was last updated by  All Jeff 1 week, 2 days ago.

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  • #1453346
    DBRDBR
    DBRDBR
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    • Total Posts 317

    Time for my first bet of the season. I’ll hope Some Neck at 15/1 jumps a bit better then last time. He brings some decent form and I think he can run a big race.

    #1453348

    greenasgrass
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    • Total Posts 2328

    I’ve been having a look at him too. He collects lumps of birch wherever he goes and I don’t think will ever be a good jumper. Oddly the best jump he did at Galway was the second half of the double after Yorkhill had broadsided him two strides away.

    Bonus is that David Mullins is on top- I think the horse needs strongly ridden and his best performances have been with this jockey scooping him up and keeping body and soul together and some forward momentum after each fence.

    He has clearly got an engine and stays; if he can jump over not through tomorrow must have a decent chance of getting in the money.

    #1453355
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    • Total Posts 4485

    Not my time of year for betting jumpers but couldn’t resist backing a few in this.
    A TOI PHIL 50/1
    RAVENHILL 8/1
    ICANTSAY 25/1
    BARRA 33/1

    Good Luck and as I say not normally my time of year for the leppers :good:

    #1453370
    BigG
    BigG
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    • Total Posts 5871

    Nice to see a real jumps race this early in the season, and I’d have to give Some Neck
    a very decent shout in this. If you fancy Yorkhill, a 10/1 shot here, than
    what chance must you give to Some Neck, at 16/1 who was 3 lengths behind
    Yorkhill at Galway last time out, giving him 7 lbs. Some Neck gets 10lbs rom
    Yorkhill here, that’s a turnaround of some 17lbs for a running on 3 lengths.
    I think 16/1 5 places is a bit of a steal here.

    I also think that if Swingbridge can manage to find any of the form that saw him
    absolutely hack up in the Killarney National back in May, then he would have some
    kind of chance here at a very generous 50/1 5 places. Certainly you would
    have to overlook some less than average runs since then, and he is 8lbs higher,
    but he looked like he could have won pulling a cart at Killarney. He’s risky, but
    at those odds I’m prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.

    #1453375
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 1889

    Barra for me is interesting here too. She is however tricky to catch right over fences, Galway was unlikely to suit her at all. Too much hustle and bustle and her race style over fences left her badly positioned throughout. I do think she’s well handicapped still if she can put it together. Add to that the jockey claims a handy 7. He’s 4 from 33 with 5 placed with chasers as well.

    It will all need to fall right for her, but she has the ability.

    Ravenhill would be my biggest fancy and the going reports suggest it should be ok for him groundwise as long as it doesnt rain too much today. First race on NH track too so freshest ground!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1453398

    All Jeff
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    My main selection here is Icantsay. I think that this is a fairly open race, and 25-1 each way with 5 places available was good enough for me.

    I agree with the angle on Dell Arca, but equally I can make a case for the other British raider Shantou Village. The booking of Robbie Power has swung it for me, and I’ve taken the 14-1, again to 5 places.

    #1453411

    greenasgrass
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    • Total Posts 2328

    My second one is Poker Party at 16s ew 5 places.
    Had a nice loose schooling session round Ballybrit happily causing mayhem. Not too sure about the trip but ground should be OK.

    #1453413
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15620

    None of the reserves make it then. Disappointed not to see Black Scorpion, but he should get his chance for compensation at the weekend.

    I’ll stick with the initial pair now.

    David Noonan replaces the injured Tom Scudamore on Dell Arca.

    #1453414

    potato
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    • Total Posts 680

    POKER PARTY ew at 16/1

    Will like the ground and open to plenty of improvement as a 2nd season chaser and also open to plenty of improvement at this 3m trip.

    Should have half a chance here.

    #1453420
    Lemons68
    Lemons68
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    • Total Posts 367

    I’ve deserted Yorkhill in the end and went with Ravenhill 9-1, and Shantou Village 14-1, and both are each way with 5 Places.

    #1453423
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15620

    Well done Grass and Potato.

    Hard luck Jeff and Lemons with Shantou as well. Small consolation for you Lemons with Ravenhill.

    #1453424

    homersimpson
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    • Total Posts 2109

    Well done winners. Didn’t have a bet in the end as I was mad keen on Black Scorpion who didn’t get in.

    A few years ago Reserves kept winning this race. Now it seems to be a race for the female jockey with 4 of the last 6 renewals going to them.

    #1453425
    patriot1
    patriot1
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    • Total Posts 410

    Cracking ride from Blackmore. Had Poker Party in the perfect position all the way round, got him in a good jumping rhythm and didn’t panic when the leaders went for home early on the final circuit. Hopefully another great season for her to back up last year.

    Great run from Shantou Village. The way the winner stuck his neck out after the last means you can’t say he was unlucky. But would have been close.

    #1453426

    greenasgrass
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    Thanks folks…yes it was a good ride. I thought she was too far back but according to previous quotes from HdB the key to the horse is to sit still and let him jump instead of flapping and shoving. It must take some nerve to sit quietly for so long instead of “doing something” for the sake of it.

    I was fairly hopping in the last hundred yards as I’d deserted Ravenhill for the first time this year. If they hadn’t had a bit of rain last night he might have won- a good performance on softer than ideal ground.

    Barra looks like she thinks NH racing is a stupid pursuit now. Didn’t see her fall but hope she is OK and gets a good break now to cheer her up.

    Yorkhill initially looked great and jumped fairly straight but then reverted to type…as soon as he gets tired or pissed off or scares himself with one bad jump then he jumps more and more awkwardly left and loses his rhythm completely. Think he may be best beating up small, sub G1 fields.

    Some Neck initially jumped quite well and I wished I’d backed him, then it went to pot a bit. V unlucky Shantou Village backers, he looked like fighting out the finish.

    #1453443
    BigG
    BigG
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    • Total Posts 5871

    Well done Grass and Potato, that was some ride by Rachael Blackmore :good:

    I agree with you on Some Neck Green, he looked to be going really well, then
    some slow jumps were followed by plenty iffy jumps. Until they sort his
    jumping out I won’t be going back in again.

    Backers of Shantou Village and Ravenhill may count themselves a touch unlucky,
    but overall I think the winner deserved his win. It was nice to see the jumps
    back in action again :good:

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