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Entries and weights out……..
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/kerry-national/winner
The big worry for me in this race is that there’s two or three other Races during the Harvest Festival that would be suitable for many of them, and you can always guarantee that a good few of The Kerry National Entries will have alternative targets.
Risky race then before Final Decs, but as it’s a race where I’ll definitely have an Antepost, then I’ve just got to go for it.
As it is, not as big a problem for me this year, as my main fancy is 50’s at the moment, so I don’t have to go completely mad.
A Toi Phil is the horse I’ve had in mind for this since The Galway Plate. I bet him that day, but he was given an easy enough time of it, and also when he reappeared a few days later. He certainly fits the bill of horses who might have other targets, not least The Southampton Chase, but he’s worth chancing here off of his current mark. He’s as good (on his day) as the majority of these, if not better, and he’s shaped, certainly last season, as a horse who had a long term plan. He’s been given many a chance in Graded Races, doing particularly well in G2’s and G3’s, and this looks the perfect race for him. Now just to hope that he makes it there.
He’s not the only hope for Gigginstown, whore looking for their third win in four years in this, and they also have Barra, and Valseur Lido. Valseur Lido is one they’re persevering with, and he’s shown enough to at least be considered, especially now that he remains on a low mark. Barra meanwhile, has a 4lb rise to contend with, after his big run in The Kilbeggan National, which was ultimately in vain, as he fell at the last with the race won. The extra weight looked to take its toll next time at Galway, but with a longer break to this race, he might just have enough progression in him to feature.
Barra’s loss was Na Trachtalai Abu’s gain, and he went on to land the spoils that night. He’s an extremely likeable, if unpredictable type, and his massive run in The Munster National is hard to forget either. Wasn’t given a great ride at Killarney before that, but still came out with credit, and the only negative I can see for him, is a 5lb rise for a race that was gifted to him. In the same ownership is the Henry De Bromhead trained Poker Party. A model of consistency, but as a result, he’s on a career high mark, and it was too early judge how the mark would affect him, as he came down early in The Galway Plate. The ability is there, and I think there’s more improvement in him, but I still find him one of the hardest to weigh up.
One of the big name entries, is JP’s Ballyoisin. I’ve always liked this horse, and he came back as good as ever last time. Top weight to shoulder here, but I reckon he’s earned that, and he’s an intriguing entry, though whether or not it’s a serious target, I wouldn’t be 100% confident. He’s surely got a future outwith Handicaps, so he has to be respected. Of equal interest are market leader Movewithetimes and All The Answers. Movewithetimes became an instant Notebook horse of mine, when he fell in The Galway Plate. No way was he done with when he came down, and this is the type of race he should be targetting. He has to be a player here. All The Answers looked the real deal at Galway, and surely more to come, but perhaps he might be one for one of the other chases, especially with questions over the trip.
They’re not his only potential runners. Drumcliff has only been seen once since his spill at Galway last year, and has since moved from Harry Fry to Aidan Howard. First run for the yard was underwhelming though, and I’m inclined to pass him by here, but he’s noteworthy for later in the season. Oscar Knight was a horse I followed two or three years back, but he’s achieved little lately, and perhaps he’s just regressing slightly. As for Timiyan, well he looks out of this. Woefully out of form, and never sighted in this last year. However, he’s creeping closer to the mark he ran off of in The Kilbeggan Midlands National last year, and though he was later disqualified, he did at least show plenty that night, and as he continues to plummet down the weights, I just can’t write him off.
Along with Barra and A Toi Phil, Timiyan represents Gordon Elliot, and not surprisingly, he’s got lot a lot more in there too…..
Cecil Corbett
Mrs Lovett
Ned Stark
Ravenhill
Swingbridge
Three MusketeersThree Musketeers and Mrs Lovett are the two that really jump out. Musketeers was excellent over timber at Aintree, and with a prolonged spell at the yard now under his belt, then more improvement has to be expected. He looks a threat. Mrs Lovett is on just about the right mark, and was unlucky when coming down last time. She wouldn’t be the best ever winner of this, but this looks the right trip, and she should run her race. Ravenshill proved he was still going the right way, off his revised mark in The Galway Plate, and should remain competitive.
Not to be outdone, Willie Mullins has a strong hand too…..
Ask Susan
Minella Beau
Pravalaguna
Some Neck
YorkhillI think Yorkhill is a bit underestimated here. He’s better going left handed, yet his last two completed runs, going right handed have been decent, and he fairly strolled it last time at Galway. He’s probably the headline horse here, and for all he’s justifiably known for the odd quirk or two, he’s got the look of a well treated horse here, and this looks to have been the target for a while. Shortlist.
Pravalaguna is maybe one for one of the other Listowel Races, and I’m very interested in Ask Susan, but more so for later in the season. That leaves us with second favourite Minella Beau. It’s not difficult to see why. Very impressive winner of The Galway Blazers, boosting his growing reputation in the process. Deserves his rise in the weights, and his chance is obvious. He’s potential value at 7’s, as I thought he’d be Fav.
There are three potential runners who could travel across The Irish Sea, namely….
Dell Arca
Monbeg River
Shantou VillageMonbeg is a nice enough type, and his entry certainly had me wondering just what made them target this? Work to do, but he’s interesting, down to the fact that you wouldn’t expect to see him here.
As for the other two, well they both made the frame last year, but just a few question marks about whether they progressed much as last season went on. In their favour is that they’re both a few pounds lower this time around, and though he could make me look foolish, I’ve a feeling that Dell Arca could run a big race.
The field is made up with….
Black Scorpion
Gwencily Berbas
Icantsay
Internal Transfer
Kilkishen
Supreme Vinnieand I think the pick of them are from the Eric McNamara yard. Internal Transfer has possibly got some progression in him, he certainly had s fine time of it last year. I’m hoping that this isn’t the plan though, as I think he looks perfect for next months Munster National. The other one I really like is Black Scorpion, who was really impressive last year. On the face of it, he looks to have laid the price for that win, looking high enough in the weights, but I’m not convinced, and think he might just be a real dark one here. I think he’s very interesting.
Icantsay would have to deserve a quick nod as well, as although he looks just short of this, his run last time behind Minella Beau, was encouraging.
Black Scorpion 16’s
Dell Arca 25’s
Yorkhill 16’sare all of great interest here, and if I wanted to be double handed right now, it would be Yorkhill, but for now, one go, and I’ll stick with…..
A Toi Phil 50’s EW
VTC – A Toi Phil joins the likes of Mitchouka, Dakota Moirette, Arkwrisht, Prince Of Scars, Blow By Blow, Tombstone, Ball D’Arc, Poli Roi and Valseur Lido in the Gigginstown draft at the Goffs September Sale.
https://www.goffsuk.com/sales-results/sales/september-hit-sale-2019
Old Valseur Lido finally getting the boot.
Palixandre- the Ricci horse that was with Nicky Henderson to start- also in the catalogue.
As is Rashaan. Hope he gets a decent home, I have a bit of a soft spot for him despite (or perhaps because of) the fact that he beat my selections on several occasions.
A quick glance over the likely runners and I’m thinking a lot of doubtful stayers. So on them grounds think Minella Beau the one to be on, but no sort of price for EW so on the nose and hope for the best.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Bob, I really like a couple from your shortlist, Yorkhill & Black Scorpion.
Yorkhill is one of those horses who you just don’t know what you’re going to get, but now that 20-1 is available, I could see me taking a chance at that price.
Black Scorpion is my idea of the winner though. He’s now 12-1 and I will definitely bet him ew right now.
Yeah, that’ll be my two mate to go with A Toi Phil, happy to have three in this. Haven’t decided whether to play early, but they both look like they’ll go, and I can’t see their current prices holding.
Cheers for the update Soldier. I knew the sales were due, but I took it as a positive that Giggs had a relatively small number entered in this, so was happy. I hope it’s no too bad an omen, and he’ll be ready to run a big race, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t bothered to see his name on the list. Hopefully he can go out with a bang for them.
I think Ravenhill is potentially my fancy in this.
Ballyoisin surely won’t be going up to 3miles.
Don’t think Pravalaguna wants 3miles either. All The Answers hasn’t finished a race over anything further than 2m2 but he’s prominent in the market so maybe he does run.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Couldn’t wait with Yorkhill, and took that 20’s.
It was certainly confirmed by Mullins that this was the next race for him, but that obviously can’t be taken as gospel. Still, should he go, then I can’t see any way he’ll be near 20’s. In fact the most worrying thing for me is that the 20’s is holding fine.
I’ll leave Black Scorpion till final decs, but even then, not 100% committed, as I’m now looking at Three Musketeers.
A Toi Phil 50’s EW
Yorkhill 20’s EWKerry National is almost upon us, which means the Jump season has arrived!
Hello everyone,:mail:
haha Frankie and the Natioal Hunt posters will reappear!
Still think i would side with Ravenhill here, for all i can see your shout with Yorkhill going back left handed. He’ll carry top weight (i suspect) but that won’t be a worry at all to him.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Jack, I think he’s got a massive chance Ravenhill. Jockey bookings should be interesting, and we’ll know more this time tomorrow.
If you believe yr.no weather, there could be over 12mm of rain which would play some part. It would make me less confident on Ravenhill as all his course form has been on decent ground. The owners are very positive on his chances i know that for sure. Fingers crossed the ground doesn’t get soft.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’ve followed Movewithetimes off the proverbial cliff and while it breaks my heart to do so I’m going to have to bypass him this time at the price. I think Yorkhill represents much better value and looks a model horse for this race.
Dell Arca ran a screamer to finish fourth in this last year, beaten just under 5 lengths. He’s going into the race this year in significantly worse form, however his mark has dropped accordingly and runs off 6lbs lower this time round. More than happy to take a chance at a big price.
Good luck Peter with Dell Arca. Very difficult for me to leave him out, but just can’t bet em all. If Black Scorpion doesn’t get in, I might add him on a Tricast.
Giggi owned, Elliot trained, good claimer up- Barra is my first bet at 33s EW. Jumped very well at Kilbeggan before coming down. Did nothing at Galway, which is probably why she is the price she is, but she suffered in the dodgems more than most. I think she even took a thump on the flat, going round a bend, as well as being impeded at fences. She didn’t actually jump terribly badly and got over the last double quite well when she finally got some peace and quiet (fair dues to her, if I was her I would have stomped off back to the stables after one circuit when the others weren’t playing nice). She’s had a month to get over that and her prior fall. Hopefully tomorrow’s race a bit more civilised.
Time for my first bet of the season. I’ll hope Some Neck at 15/1 jumps a bit better then last time. He brings some decent form and I think he can run a big race.
I’ve been having a look at him too. He collects lumps of birch wherever he goes and I don’t think will ever be a good jumper. Oddly the best jump he did at Galway was the second half of the double after Yorkhill had broadsided him two strides away.
Bonus is that David Mullins is on top- I think the horse needs strongly ridden and his best performances have been with this jockey scooping him up and keeping body and soul together and some forward momentum after each fence.
He has clearly got an engine and stays; if he can jump over not through tomorrow must have a decent chance of getting in the money.
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