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Just my opinion Flash, and your right he’s not good enough against horses of this ability, but yet he seems to be rated a Grade 1 horse
On second thoughts Racing Demon being a ‘non-stayer’ at 3m is too dogmatic: ‘better at shorter’ ‘best upto 3m’ perhaps more accurate.
Before the race I was of the opinion he’d get it better this season but seemingly not, not helped by energy-sapping over-flamboyant jumping.
not helped by energy-sapping over-flamboyant jumping.
I think you’ve hit the nail on the head there Drone – if they can get his jumping sorted out he will be a better contender.
That’s the simplistic answer of course – actually getting the bugger to jump economically is something else!!!
On second thoughts Racing Demon being a ‘non-stayer’ at 3m is too dogmatic: ‘better at shorter’ ‘best upto 3m’ perhaps more accurate.
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Well put Drone, i’ll revise my opinion to "probably better over shorter" , he has been beaten in all Grade 1’s he has contested over all distances, which suggest he’s not that much better though
Grasshopper, reet hard
Kauto Star bangs in 180 performances consistently. That makes him a fantastic racehorse – one of the best of recent years, but it doesn’t make him the equal of Desert Orchid. If you think that means I underrate him then fine – you carry on believing he is whatever you want him to be.
KS has better form than Denman to date, but Denman’s form in winning the Hennessy wasn’t far off KS’s best and the horse could easily have more to come. We know how good Kauto Star isn’t – we can’t say the same yet about Denman.
Maybe Denman will turn out to be a fraud, get chinned in Ireland on Friday and then get stuffed by KS in the Gold Cup. Fair play – KS will be rightly acclaimed as the superior beast – and by some margin when you add in his consistency and his big race titles.
But IF we have an all time great on our hands at present – at this moment I can only believe it could be Denman as I dont think KS will ever be a 187+ horse.
If he was he would have beaten Monet’s Garden giving weight. If he was he would have beaten Exotic Dancer and the rest even more impressively than he did today and has done in the past.
That isn’t to knock the horse as he is an undisputed champion and is far superior to what I consider frauds like Best Mate (who picked up the trophies without ever running to this level of form).
But IF we have an all time great on our hands at present – at this moment I can only believe it could be Denman as I dont think KS will ever be a 187+ horse.
You have to be a 187+ horse to be an all time great?
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KS has better form than Denman to date, but Denman’s form in winning the Hennessy wasn’t far off KS’s best and the horse could easily have more to come. We know how good Kauto Star isn’t – we can’t say the same yet about Denman.
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I would say we probably have a a very good idea how good KS is and agree with you TDK , we can’t say the same regarding Denman , as he’s not been tested against horses like Exotic Dancer, Our Vic, Beef or Salmon etc yet
Looking forward to seeing Denman win by 6 or more in Lexus and then we have a cracking GC to look forward to
For months people have been saying that, in the absence of Kauto Star, the otherwise top class Exotic Dancer would be mopping up the season’s best staying chases. Why is it then, when that horse has been so comprehensively beaten under ideal conditions, some are still finding it within themselves to score Kauto Star down so heavily? It’s pure nonsense, as are any such claims that Denman is the ‘more likely’ of the pair to match the achievements of Desert Orchid. I have said that, following his Hennessy win, Denman would be my idea of the Gold Cup winner, but who is to say either have stopped improving? Any firm suggestion either way on the basis of common sense really isn’t worth listening to.
Racing Demon is a high class horse in his own right and can rate better than a decent handicapper in much the same way as Exotic Dancer. I don’t buy for one second that ‘failing to stay’ can be used as an argument for the former, especially given his performance in the Royal and SunAlliance (hurdle) at Cheltenham and on a number of occasions over fences (Exeter and Huntingdon in particular). It sounds like people trying to make excuses, for whatever reason, to avoid admitting the fact that Kauto Star could be the best we’ve seen for a long, long time…perhaps ever.
I am afraid though that we are destined to continue in a circular path with regard to this argument, as such comparisons are impossible and any statement merely a matter of opinion rather than fact. Given modern handicapping it is safe to compare Kauto Star with the likes of Best Mate, but when ‘class’ and ratings are relative to a generation how are we supposed to mark current champions against their predecessors?
The argument as to how Kauto Star compares to Arkle, and even Desert Orchid, is purely subjective, as methods of assessment, course preparation and training have changed drastically…as have the number of horses competing at various levels. Arkle was imperious at his best but who is to say that, under today’s handicapping conditions, his performances rated in the 200s were indeed worthy of that mark? And is it conceivable that, had a horse like Kauto Star been around in Arkle’s day, he would have been similarly rated through sheer superiority (rather than pure ability)?
These questions, and many more, can always be asked in circumstances such as this and I think the most pleasing aspect is that we finally have a horse worthy of forming such arguments…as futile as they clearly are.
Aidan – people keep banging on about horses being "the best since Arkle" every time a horse wins impressively. Desert Orchid had an official rating of 187 at his prime. I’m using that as a benchmark here – if they can’t match that kind of rating then there is no way that they deserve to be talked of in these terms.
Obviously it isn’t an official benchmark. Not so long ago, people on this forum were saying Best Mate was an all time great. However, a quick glance at the form book tells you he was just a cleverly campaigned horse who was lucky enough to be around in a dreadful era of staying chasers. He wouldn’t have seen which way Exotic Dancer went, never mind Kauto Star.
Fair enough, James, but I do take issues with a couple of your points.
First is the confident assertion that we have somehow already seen how good Kauto Star is – his ‘level’, if you will.
I don’t think we’ve got to the bottom of him yet, tbh, and I reckon he is still capable of further improvement. In that respect, he is a little bit like Moscow Flyer was, in that it was during his most impressive performances, that there looked to be most left in the locker at the end of the race. I therefore don’t buy the theory that KS has reached a plateau in terms of achievable form, leaving Denman more likely to go forwards.
Second, I get the impression that you think KS still has something to prove. It’s the suggestion that Kauto Star somehow needs to beat Denman in the Gold Cup, to ‘prove’ he is a superior beast, that I can’t have.
Regardless of how highly you personally rate the Hennessy form, it would require the most generous of interpretations to contend that it was better than the best of Kauto Star’s form.
For me, it is quite clear – Kauto Star is a superior beast to Denman.
It is Denman who needs to to prove himself – not the other way around. It is your apparent adoption of the opposite view, that I’m having difficulty with.
I don’t think Denman is a fraud either. I just have him needing to find a half-stone minimum to get Kauto Star into a race. Clearly, you think it’s a lot less.
C’est la guerre.
Edit: PS. I was with you on Best Mate, so please don’t take it personal.
Aidan – people keep banging on about horses being "the best since Arkle" every time a horse wins impressively. Desert Orchid had an official rating of 187 at his prime. I’m using that as a benchmark here – if they can’t match that kind of rating then there is no way that they deserve to be talked of in these terms.
Obviously it isn’t an official benchmark. Not so long ago, people on this forum were saying Best Mate was an all time great. However, a quick glance at the form book tells you he was just a cleverly campaigned horse who was lucky enough to be around in a dreadful era of staying chasers. He wouldn’t have seen which way Exotic Dancer went, never mind Kauto Star.
Where has this 187 come from for Dessie? I can’t find any evidence of it.
RPR have him a best of 189 for beating Delius in the Racing Post Trophy. That was probably an over-rating as Dessie never ran to that mark before or since and its hard to believe he suddenly hit a peak for one race after a succession of previous efforts then went into decline for his next ten races or so. His next best mark was 184 but he usually ran to around 180 / 181 rather like Kauto Star does.
Delius was about as worthy of his (official) rating of 157 in the RP Chase as I would be over the same course carrying Rik Waller.
See how easy it is to score down the very best racehorses?
Maybe Kauto Star is that good after all…..
187 is the high-water-mark Chasers & Hurdlers rating, Flash.
These are often used as a barometer for this type of discussion, as many feel them to be a more accurate reflection of merit than the OR, or the RPR.
I’m not entirely sure myself whether Kauto Star can achieve a 187 rating. But from my reading of the evidence, he is not very far away already, and given the right circumstances, he might just be capable of it. I cannot say the same thing about Denman – especially so when the Hennessy form has not even been subject to the most rudimentary examination since the race.
Many seem to think that the Hennessy form is rock-solid, and hindsight may prove that it turns out to be rock-solid. But until I see some evidence for it, I prefer a more cautious approach than one which assumes it puts Denman within a few lbs of one of the best staying chasers of the last 20 years.
Kauto Star was highly impressive today, he has now confirmed himself to be the greatest staying chaser of my racing lifetime. IMO if today had been left-handed it’d be his ideal race, but don’t let that detract too much as he’s made it look as much and more. Everything else (i.e. ED and Denman) needs to find a half stone or hope for a stamina flaw in order to beat this one in March.
Expect a better run from ED come Cheltenham however. I’d find any arguement that he ran to form hard to believe even factoring in his tactics, which proved to be a vain gamble in order to beat his nemesis.
Assuming Denman shows the form he should off the back of his Hennessey win, the GC should be the race of the decade. KS challenged by a big, ‘old-style’ GC horse and a fast finisher who will no doubt love the pace Denman will set a damn site more than he did BoS’s last term. If Kauto can win that he deserves the ‘all-time great’ tag he’ll receive, and judging by today I would anticipate him to do so.A mathematician, a physicist, and an engineer were traveling through Scotland when they saw a black sheep through the window of the train.
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Kauto Star has a tendency to lug left approaching many of his fences and is almost certainly capable of better than he has shown today (RPR 184+).
On any LH track, he would undoubtedly stuff Desert Orchid, questionable ratings or not.
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