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Prufrock – I’d be fascinated if you could illustrate how you would apply race standardisation to Saturday’s race.
There’s not just conventional race standardisation, but, for illustration, I’ll keep it simple and use the figures provided by Raceform Interactive:
2005<br>1st = 170<br>2nd = 169<br>3rd = 162<br>4th = 151<br>5th = 152<br>(7 ran)
2006<br>1st = 0 lb worse than winner<br>2nd = 20 "<br>3rd = 21 "<br>4th = 23 "<br>5th = 53 "<br>(6 ran)
(((170+0)*9)+((169+20)*5)+((162+21)*3)+((151+23)*2)+((152+53)*1))/20   (different handicappers favour different weightings and adjustments for class/field size etc)
= 178.85
adjustment for field size = -0.5
race standard for winner based on 2005 = 178.35
That’s just based on one year, however. In such circumstances, you would probably rather have a race standard also based on earlier runnings of the race as the Grade 2 Tommy Whittle Chase (adjusted for the customary difference between Grade 2 and Grade 1) or a general Grade 1 race standard adjusted for the time of year.
You could also take average adjusted ratings (I don’t know what Raceform’s were) and treat it as if it were a handicap according to customary race standardisation means but with an adjustment for the nature of the race.
Race standardisation and other forms of number-crunching do not necessarily provide all the answers – and are often more useful on the Flat than over jumps (due to fallers etc) – but they do provide a starting point and an independent assessment of which horses are likely to have run close to form or not based on historical precedent, as well as the degree to which historical precedent can be trusted.
The "guess which horse ran to form, even though none of them necessarily has" seemingly advocated by RP and BHB is a massive step backwards in my opinion.
Prufrock my ratings work for me (four successive profitable seasons). I appreciate people have different ways of doing things but what works for one doesn’t neccessarily work for another.
To me you over complicate things unneccessarily but if it works for you …………………………………. .
You could also take average adjusted ratings
Should say "median adjusted ratings". It’s a couple of years since I handicapped for a living and about 8 years since I did jumpers. Sorry.
So thats a yes then :biggrin: and apologies for asking such a thick question, but the reason i asked, is RI aslo provide the OR’s for use in research such as Race Standardisation
(Edited by empty wallet at 6:00 pm on Nov. 20, 2006)
And another reason is, although i don’t know the exact method  the  RPR/BHB handicappers use to compile their handicaps.
I gather from reading BHB handicapper Phil Smith / RPR handicapper  Steve Mason and listening to Nigel Grey both use "yardstick" handicapping.
Which, as know is flawed, so therefore using either rating as a reliable form of data on which to compile a  Race Standardisation is unreliable to say the least
(Edited by empty wallet at 6:19 pm on Nov. 20, 2006)
Interesting to see that Kauto Star has been left in at the 5-day stage for the Tingle Creek.
Once again it’s doesn’t like a great renewal so if there’s plenty of cut, maybe they’ll run him.
It would be so refreshing if KS is campaigned aggressively at all distances from 2 – 3m….
(Edited by PAULCS at 4:08 pm on Nov. 27, 2006)
I assume Kauto star will only run in the Tingle creek if Voy doesnt run. but it would be great if he could win at 2 mile, 2.5, and 3 all in one season.
I can’t see Kauto Star running and I can’t see any reason why he should to be honest. He needs careful campaigning if hes going to have a chance of achieving what connections want him to achieve.
i agree he doesnt want over campaigning, but as his CC run showed, he does need experience. If he ran in the tingle creek, and then the king george, nicholls would prob give him a rest and bring him back for the newbury meeting before the festival. but in all likely hood, he wont run saturday anyway.
Why not have a schooling session at Sandown instead of one at home. I would love to see Nicholls run the horse in the Tingle Creek.
totally agree. he still has 3 weeks after the race to get ready for the KG. although not sure it will be a round of schooling if voy turns up.
totally agree. he still has 3 weeks after the race to get ready for the KG. although not sure it will be a round of schooling if voy turns up.
It would be a welcome piece of aggressive campaigning but 3/1 against I reckon.
As an aside I see the 3m6f chase is being run as last race again in the gathering gloom. Not wise.
Recall the blessed Henrietta taking one out at Exeter because it was too dark.
<br>If Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer & Well Chief were still around I’d think twice about running KS because I don’t think that he’s quite in that league over 2m but in this instance only Voy Por Ustedes has a chance of beating KS on Saturday IMO and even then that’s going to be a very big ask for VPU first time out.
With the King George only 3 weeks away, I suppose that ante-post backers would be slightly alarmed if he were to have a tough race in the likely testing conditions but for me the percentages say run…
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