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Quote: from GI MAC on 1:47 am on Nov. 19, 2006[br]<br>As for the cheltenham extra 3f (not 2f?), I don’t think it matters. he never left 3rd gear, he could have gone on for another half mile uphill.<br>
<br>I suppose we could half-answer the question of his effectiveness beyond 3m at Cheltenham were he to turn out in the Pillar Chase – not heard anything to suggest whether or not that’s on the agenda, though.
gc<br>
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
The 176 OR is quite fair. The lb per length adjustment is somewhat dated, but is as good benchmark as there is I suppose. I’d have said 174 with a ‘+’, but 176 is not overly excessive.
Not surprised by the 184+ ratings. I rate him 181+. I can’t see any way he can possibly be given a rating below 181 at the very least unless you take the view that Beef Or Salmon ran below his Nicholson form and L’Ami also ran way below his best. I have Beef Or Salmon running up to his latest run and L’Ami running to a mark of 163 which doesn’t seem unreasonable as five of his last six runs have been to a similar level give or take a pound or two.
Kauto Star has run to a mark well in excess of what any staying chaser has done for years that includes War Of Attrition, Kicking King and Best Mate.
If his Haydock performance doesn’t prove to be a one off, Kauto Star is going to be a very special racehorse.
<br>
(Edited by The Market Man at 7:10 am on Nov. 20, 2006)
What do the time gurus here make of the race?
6.5 above standard I believe on going officially GS.
Do the time figures/sectionals reinforce a 184+ form rating?
Sleepy Hollow have Kauto Star bare form at 176+, the extra 8 lbs is presumably an estimate of what he was value for. That has Beef or Salmon running below form which looks likely, the ground not quite as soft as he’d like and a none-too-surprisng sticky round of jumping. It has L’Ami running right up to his Gold Cup form.
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Market Man
Before we go overboard about KS’s performance, brilliant though it was, there is a need to consider how others performed in the race.<br>Beef or Salmon is never at his best in a properly run race, which this certainly was, and was only just getting into contention at the finish. Had the race been over further, he would almost certainly have finished closer.<br>L’Am also needs further to show his best – all his better ratings have been achieved over stiffer tests. He may have improved a little, but on the bare form he ran a few pounds below his best.<br> Ollie Magern, although showing his best for some time, set too strong a pace for his own good, and consequently had nothing left in the closing stages, again a few pounds below his best.<br> Although undoubtedly a very high class performance, and hardly a one-off in view of his previous run, he isn’t Arkle yet.
Quote: from reet hard on 9:27 am on Nov. 20, 2006[br]
Beef or Salmon is never at his best in a properly run race, which this certainly was, and was only just getting into contention at the finish. Had the race been over further, he would almost certainly have finished closer.<br>
I would disagree with that, Beef or Salmon may have beaten the third and fourth by further, but he’d only have finished as close to Kauto Star as Ruby Walsh would have allowed him too.
Regarding Ollie Magern, connections must be tempted by the Hennessy as he’ll presumably be going back up in the weights for his return to form.
Quote: from reet hard on 9:27 am on Nov. 20, 2006[br] Market Man
Before we go overboard about KS’s performance, brilliant though it was, there is a need to consider how others performed in the race.<br>Beef or Salmon is never at his best in a properly run race, which this certainly was, and was only just getting into contention at the finish. Had the race been over further, he would almost certainly have finished closer.<br>L’Am also needs further to show his best – all his better ratings have been achieved over stiffer tests. He may have improved a little, but on the bare form he ran a few pounds below his best.<br> Ollie Magern, although showing his best for some time, set too strong a pace for his own good, and consequently had nothing left in the closing stages, again a few pounds below his best.<br> Although undoubtedly a very high class performance, and hardly a one-off in view of his previous run, he isn’t Arkle yet.
<br>I have taken into account other horses performances. I disagree with you a little about L’Ami who has run to a mark similar to Saturday’s over only a furlong further at Sandown last February and at Aintee (a sharp track) over again a furlong further but on faster ground. You can argue a pound or two but his levels of performance are very similar.
Beef Or Salmon has run to marks in the low to mid 170’s at his absolute best so a Saturday mark of around 163 / 164 has him running over half a stone below his very best although IMO on a par with his most recent run.
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Quote: from The Market Man on 9:44 am on Nov. 20, 2006[br]
 <br>I have taken into account other horses performances. I disagree with you a little about L’Ami who has run to a mark similar to Saturday’s over only a furlong further at Sandown last February and at Aintee (a sharp track) over again a furlong further but on faster ground. You can argue a pound or two but his levels of performance are very similar.<br>
Moot point that,TMM. Sandown provides a stiff test, and the Aintree ground was a good deal slower than the official Good. RP has it as g/s on time; looking at the times, I would have it bordering on soft.<br>RPR also has his Aintree run 2lbs below his best figures.
It seems a pretty straightforward race to rate if you rate it through L’Ami.
Pure waffle: any race is straightforward to rate if you use such simplistic means for coming up with a conclusion.
By the same token, Hawk Wing’s Lockinge was straightforward to rate. Take a horse in the race – any horse will do – assume it ran to form and claim that the race is easy to assess as a consequence.
Depending on which horse you take as having run to form you will get wildly differing conclusions. But, never mind, at least it is "straightforward".
Give me strength!
(Edited by Prufrock at 2:54 pm on Nov. 20, 2006)
Are you suggest Prufrock that people that use the phrase yardstick should be beaten with one?:biggrin:
Quote: from Prufrock on 2:52 pm on Nov. 20, 2006[br]It seems a pretty straightforward race to rate if you rate it through L’Ami.
Pure waffle: any race is straightforward to rate if you use such simplistic means for coming up with a conclusion.
By the same token, Hawk Wing’s Lockinge was straightforward to rate. Take a horse in the race – any horse will do – assume it ran to form and claim that the race is easy to assess as a consequence.
Depending on which horse you take as having run to form you will get wildly differing conclusions. But, never mind, at least it is "straightforward".
Give me strength!
(Edited by Prufrock at 2:54 pm on Nov. 20, 2006)<br>
Well Im not going to get into any ratings arguments Prufrock but I think most people will rate him using Lami because he is the obvious one to use…pretty consistent and hasnt run a stinker. You could use BOS but its well documented that he has his problems. Ollie Mcgern doesnt do it often enough so i imagine anyone handing out these ratings will just look straight to Lami, and hey presto…a number :)
and a number which generates a lot of reaction at that.
SHL
:o stuff from Pru
<br>Some interesting comments, particularly regarding BoS’ running, who seemed to run a similar race to last year to these eyes, but did not have the benefit of jumping less fences this time around
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Why should anyone see the need to rate an entire race around just one horse in the first place?
To the poster who states that Kauto Star should be at least 181 because he beat L’Ami 18 lengths and L’Ami should be rated 163: if you allow 18 lb for 18 lengths under these conditions, what would you allow for 18 lengths if the race had been at two miles? On firm ground? Or on heavy?
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