Juvenile Hurdlers 2021/22

[IanDavies]

4/6 was quite fair – we were expecting 1/3!

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Bachelors Hall]

Was thinking the same. Hope the drift to a more sensible price compelled you to make a small investment.

On an unrelated matter, I forgot to watch Fil Dor’s race on mute. Jerry wasn’t doing too badly until he seemingly forgot to shout. What contrived shittery. Nothing against the man personally but his style is easily the worst I have ever heard in the sport. I don’t care if it’s an accountant reading off the horses names as long as it isn’t designed to draw attention away from the horses themselves.

[IanDavies]

The mute button is ALWAYS our friend, BH!

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Bachelors Hall]

Wanted to do previews for the races at Kempton and Wetherby but thanks to 48 hour declarations not being a thing on the busiest week of racing of the sodding year, I have only had time to preview the Finale Hurdle. Enjoy :)

With the festive weather being rather sensible this year, the first Grade One juvenile hurdle of the season is set to place on its intended date. The Finale Hurdle did not have a winner follow up in the Triumph until Mysilv landed the brace in the 1993/94 season. Nevertheless, since its establishment in 1971, in which that season’s Triumph winner would place third behind Ballytruckle, the Finale Hurdle has maintained solid claims to being the most important juvenile hurdle this side of the New Year. During the seventies, winners included classy sorts in Fighting Kate and Decent Fellow while in the 1974 renewal, the ill-fated Philominsky handed the great Night Nurse his first defeat over hurdles. The eighties began with future Champion Hurdle runner-up and useful jumps sire Broadsword winning in 1980. Though a few lean years followed the race’s move to the Welsh National card in 1981, Out Of The Gloom and High Knowl went some way to redeeming the race’s standing while Wahiba would place in both the Finale and the Triumph in 1987/88. 1988 saw Royal Derbi, Ikdam and 100/1 shot Bradbury Star beaten upwards of fourteen lengths and the nineties began with festival winners Crystal Spirit and Oh So Risky finishing second and fifth respectively although only Mysilv would make an effort in maintaining those heady heights in 1993. The new millenium started with a bang as Jair du Cochet got the better of Bilboa. Good Bye Simon, Franchoek and Walkon counted themselves as the classiest winners of the 2000s while popular talents Turko, Fair Along, Twist Magic and Reve de Sivola would also appear. Countrywide Flame and Smad Place trailed March Warbler in 2011 since which, Bristol de Mai, Defi du Seuil, Allmankind and Adagio have headed the roll call, with Houblon des Obeaux, Sam Winner, Kentucky Hyden and Old Guard amongst the numerous talented beaten horses over the past decade.

With twelve runners set to face the starter, this season’s renewal will have the largest field since 2007. Nevertheless, quality is not compromised by quantity as save for the absences of Knight Salute, Interne de Sivola and In This World, the line-up is very much representative of the best seen in the British division to date. The twelve youngsters have between themselves thirteen wins and £156,197 in prize money. Five bring unbeaten records and the three maidens have each ran creditably in races worth over £19,000 to the winner. While it is folly to speculate on the future impact of this contest, there is a healthy blend of proven form and vast potential amidst the field.

Though the meeting will almost certainly go ahead without the threat of a pesky inspection, a searching stamina test still awaits these young animals. Chepstow’s winners’ DIs of 0.87 median, 1.20 mean are lower only at Cheltenham and Hexham, although the completion rate of 86.66% being of a average nature is indicitive of the class of runner and its relative fairness as a hurdling test (96.38% clear round). Such fairness is also reflected in the strong record of odds-on favourites, with the 80% strike rate being the highest of all British courses with more than eleven such juveniles; not that anything here should start odds-on. Since 2004, seven winners of this contest started on the flat (6.93% SR), seven had jumps experience in France (19.44%) and two were unraced prior to competing in British juveniles (25%). Several in this field have made the running and/or raced prominently. The going is currently described as good and while Boxing Day should be dry, heavy rain is expected on the morning of the race.

Triumph Betting
Forever Blessed 25/1
Porticello 25/1
Rocky Man 25/1
Skycutter 40/1
Forever William 50/1
Iroko 50/1
Magistrato 50/1
Tease And Seize 50/1
Saint Segal 66/1

Forever Blessed bg Harry Fry j2-2-0 (128) 118 120
Zoffany (Oasis Dream){4-r}(1.40) 3/1 Total Command 1st 2m4f Maiden Hurdle, Great Meadow 2012
One of two runners in the field whose racecourse debuts came in this division, Forever Blessed first venture came at Ffos Las towards the end of October. Costing €22,000 as a yearling Forever Blessed is from the quality Juddmonte distaff line of Wince and Quiff. Total Command, who won a hurdle in America, is the closest jumper on the damline although the useful Ulundi and Master Dino appear further back. Zoffany has a solid record in the division with a winner to runner rate of 26% and improvement rate of 48.15%, although the same could not be said of damsire Oasis Dream who even including Forever Blessed, has a strike rate of just 5.56%. Given that Irish bred unraced debutants had a strike rate of 2.03% going into the Ffos Las contest, and that trainer Harry Fry was hitherto without a first-time out scorer, the stats were against Forever Blessed in what looked a decent little contest. Nevertheless, he received outside support in the betting, starting at 17/2 having been available at 17/2. Held up towards the rear in a fairly steadily run affair, Forever Blessed was asked to take closer order on the turn for home and though his response was not immediate, he travelled comfortably on the run to the penultimate flight and landed with a lead which would be extended by a few lengths at the last. From there, he was pushed out to win by a cosy eleven lengths. Apart from steadying and getting close to the second, there was little complaint in his hurdling with his being slightly novicey at the first and three out being the sum of his offences. A couple of his rivals disappointed and other than the fourth running to a similar level next time, the form has yet to be tested. Nevertheless, he was backed as though defeat was out of the question when reappearing in an introductory contest at Sandown early this month and duly landed odds of 4/9. Racing prominently this time, he jumped into the lead at the distance and went further ahead as the line neared, winning by eighteen lengths from a previous winner. He posted another decent round of hurdling, with only a few clippings down the back and his being rather big at two out counted against him. Again, the bare form is not of a high standard and strictly speaking, his official mark of 128 exceeds his performances by roughly half a stone. Notwithstanding, his place in the field is still warranted by his efforts to date and he is very much entitled to improve given his inexperience. Furthermore, he has already shown himself adept in testing conditions and is versatile regarding tactics. There is a lack of proven form and his ability to fully get a trip at this level remains to be seen, but a strong showing for his trainer’s first runner in this contest can not be discounted.

Forever William chg Alan King f8-0-5 (73) 81 j1-1-0 (-) 110 118
Sea The Moon (Arch){3-l}(1.00) 2/1 Gallic Destiny 1st 2m3f Novices’ Hurdle, Fontwell 2015
Alan King is an outstanding trainer of juvenile hurdlers and his record in this particular contest reads as two winners and three placings from eight runners. Interestingly, his two winners and his runner-up (Franchoek, Walkon and Karezak) all came into the race having been out within a fortnight of the race. Though less experienced than the aforementioned, Forever William will be making a quick reappearance having won on his hurdling debut at Newbury twelve days ago; the same race where Walkon finished second to Zaynar before winning at Chepstow. An eight race maiden on the flat, Forever William had been given to racing lazily as well as keenly, and was also seen to hang to his right. Cheekpieces were applied on his penultimate flat start at Nottingham where he made up a lot of ground in a fourteen furlong handicap but was unable to find the post in time. He failed to justify favouritism back at Nottingham on his final flat outing over two miles, expending a fair amount of energy by pulling hard early. His final rating of 73 would not be the highest among juvenile recruits, but his best performances are still respectable in the context of this contest both historically and in this term’s running. By Sea The Moon, whose Allmankind and Tritonic countribute to his winner to runner rate of 29.41%, Forever William is a nephew of winning novice Gallic Destiny, with the useful Alsaada appearing at 3/2 on the damline. The Newbury contest had been won four times by his trainer in the past decade and has been contested over the years by the likes of Clan des Obeaux, Third Intention and Hebridean as well as the aforementioned Walkon and Zaynar. Sent off a steady 6/1 third favourite, Forever William was initially held up in midfield before moving into a more prominent position along the back. Though caught rather flat footed on the cross section, he was back on the bridle in the straight and jumped two out with a share of the lead where he made his only error in the race. There was no immediate acceleration under pressure, but he stayed on strongly on the run-in, winning by over four lengths. The quality of form is difficult to quantify as four of the first five home were making their hurdling bows. Nevertheless, the newcomers each brought solid flat form and represented good yards while the third placed finisher was well backed to atone for a disappointing debut. Furthermore, the winning time does compare favourably to that set by the promising I Am Maximus in the following maiden hurdle. Forever William is difficult to appraise on a sole outing, promising that it was, particularly as he was not the most straightforward on the flat. Nevertheless, the switch to hurdling appears to have given him a refreshed outlook on the game and as the chosen representative of a confident trainer who knows this race as well as anybody, he ought to be taken seriously.

Genuflex bg Milton Harris f11-1-5 (74) 79 j3-1-2 (113) 104 114
Holy Roman Emperor (Galileo){1-i}(1.13) 0.5 Gendarme 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (88), Limerick 2021
A winner on the flat for Richard Hannon, Genuflex earned his initial victory at the third time of asking in a Windsor nursery off 74 last August. Though he failed to supplement this success in eight further attempts, Genuflex did run to form over ten furlongs during the spring and summer including on his latest outing in that sphere when showing good tenacity but failing to make all in a Nottingham classified stakes. He subsequently joined the capable Milton Harris for 20,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. By a Holy Roman Emperor who wins his fair share, and being a half-brother to a winning handicap hurdler, there was every chance he could build his profile over hurdles. He was well backed to do so on his stable/hurdling debut at Ludlow early in October and only subsequent Huntingdon winner, Mister Allegro, prevented his landing the 20/1 come 5/1 plunge. Though occasionally tight at his hurdles, Genuflex posted an efficient round of jumping overall and travelled well in midfield for much of the contest. In contention turning for home, he found himself outpaced between the last two and was slow getting away from the final flight. Nevertheless, he plugged on along the run-in to snatch second in the final strides with subsequent improver Saint Riquier another four lengths behind. Entering calmer waters at Sedgefield eleven days later, Genuflex’s profile saw him sent off a worthy 4/11 favourite. Making his own running from the outset, he raced keenly while setting a modest tempo. Though he hit the top of the third, rather missed the sixth and ran down the penultimate flight, his jumping was neat enough overall. Genuflex entered the straight half a dozen lengths clear of his rivals and after being shaken up away from two out, was in cruise control for the rest of the race; crossing the line seventeen lengths clear of the remainder. Stepping up to Listed company for Wetherby’s Wensleydale Hurdle, Genuflex appeared to be quite overfaced, although he was supported in the ring from 14/1 into 10/1 at the off. Held up in the rear off a quite modest gallop, he still had only one behind turning for home. It was a tightly packed bunch however and was able to follow the increased pace in the straight, jumping the last within a length of leader Porticello. Though he was no match for the ultimately comfortable winner, he did get the better of a battle for second in the final strides. This marked a new career best, exceeding the best of his flat efforts in the process. Milton Harris has been having a fantastic season and he did saddle Mondul to finish second in the 2003 running of this contest so it may be dangerous to underestimate his charges. However, even Genuflex’s best form would still leave him with a good deal to find in this company and it is difficult to see where he can find the necessary improvement in conditions which are unlikely to see him at his strongest.

Iroko bg Oliver Greenall b1-0-0 j1-0-1 (-) – 131
Cokoriko (Martaline){u}(0.33) 1/0 Boscraie 1st 3600m 4yo AQPS Chase, Auteuil 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/iroko-1
The Prix Isopani is a three-year-old contest held at Auteuil in September for AQPS horses making their hurdling debuts. Established in 2012, its most famous graduate is Bristol de Mai who landed the 2014 renewal before making a winning British debut in the Finale Hurdle three months later. Other talented sorts to come out of the Isopani familiar to British and Irish racegoers include Alcala (2nd in 2013), Calett Mad (3rd in 2015) and Dame de Compagnie (2nd in 2016) while Figuero would be the most notable graduate who stayed to ply his trade in France. Last season’s second and third, Homme Public and Houx Gris each made immediate moves across la manche with the ill-fated latter finishing third in the Finale and fourth in the Fred Winter for Paul Nicholls. The former, who would win at Market Rasen, was acquired by Oliver Greenall and it is that trainer who unleashes this year’s Isopani second in Iroko. He started his career with Emmanuel Clayeux, whose exports in the sphere have a terrific winner to runner rate of 66.67%, and include the likes of Defi du Seuil, Apple’s Jade, Une Artiste and Qualando. Sire Cokoriko has a fine winner to runner rate of 31.34% with French three-year-olds, headed by Polirico, while dam Boscraie won a four-year-old chase at Auteuil in 2015. The damline also features plenty of other winners such as Ouest Vendeen, Un Vendeen and Rock And Co at 2/1, and three other winners out of the third dam. Iroko first saw action in an AQPS bumper at Moulins where he finished a one paced, ten length fourth behind a cousin of Espoir d’Allen who has since joined Willie Mullins, a length ahead of a subsequent Fontainebleu winner. With the services of James Reveley, who was carrying a kilo overweight, Iroko was sent off the fifth favourite of thirteen for the Isopani. Held up in touch, he jumped soundly over his first five hurdles before missing the sixth where he stumbled on landing while reaching for a leg. This did not appear to have a discernible impact on his confidence and he was prominent turning for home. He had no answer for the winner’s turn of foot, but ran on strongly to put just over a length between himself and the remainder. The form of the race has since been franked by the winner, who won a good conditions race back at the venue, as well as the third who has landed two good races of his own including the €63,000 Prix Chalet. Though difficult to quantify a solitary performance in a field of newcomers, a mark in the early 130s would not be unreasonable. Subsequently purchased by JP McManus, Iroko could make into a serious recruit to the division and is entitled to respect even in this company. However, while Oliver Greenall has a solid record in the sphere, and is actually the leading British trainer of juveniles with a 100% clear round record (128 runs and counting without a fall or unseat), his charges invariably come on for their first outings with only one from thirty-five scoring first time.

Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j3-1-2 (127) 116 126 129FR
Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato
The prestige of the Prix Grandak, and esteem of David Cottin, are covered in Porticello’s profile.
Magistrato, who also made his debut in the aforementioned race and in joining Paul Nicholls, follows in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would ohld to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage over the third placed Imprenable. A son of Kapgarde, who has an outstanding 50% winner to runner rate with his British and Irish juveniles, Magistrato’s dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteuil was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, Magistrato also looked a useful tool for this season when making a winning British debut at Chepstow in early October. Though money for Rocky Man saw him drift from a morning show of 2/5, Magistrato was still strongly fancied first time and after being available at 8/11 in the ring, contracted back into 4/7 at the off. Keen in the early stages, he made his own running at a steady tempo and though threatened for the lead at the top of the straight, was in total control at the distance and galloped on relentlessly to run out a twelve length winner from Rocky Man. Apart from being slightly untidy at the first and slow away from the fifth, there was no cause for complaint in the round of jumping as he confirmed his Auteuil proficiency. Though the race did not look strong outside of the front two, twenty-two length third placed Nazwa afforded the form some credence when finishing second off 103 on a Warwick handicap. Magistrato was then sent to Cheltenham for the Prestbury Hurdle, a race farmed by his trainer, and was sent off a well supported 6/4 favourite. Racing prominently, he was skewed over the first, tight at the second and wandered on the approach to the third. However, his jumping gave no cause for complaint from thereon. He did race quite keenly and though it was not to an alarming extent, it may have been enough to see him concede two places in the final strides. It initially appeared that he may have been the victim of the tactics employed. However, this is not backed up by the sectional times and while Chepstow runner-up Rocky Man still finished close in sixth, it did not give credence to that form in the context of this level. Magistrato is a useful juvenile and he is representing a yard with two wins (Quel Destin and Adrien du Pont) and seven placings in this contest. Nevertheless, he has already been beaten by Porticello at Auteuil and Saint Riquier at Cheltenham and the only case for his reversing those placings rests on his experience at this venue, albeit on better ground.

Porticello bg Gary Moore j3-2-1 (132) 122 132
Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d’Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello
Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colts Paradiso and San Bruit, and leading fillies Matilda du Berlais and La Boetie. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is a debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Beaumec De Houelle, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year’s edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree; being a Sholokhov nephew of the Grand Prix d’Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. Almost seven months have passed since the Prix Grandak and the form is taking a very respectable shape. Runner-up Magistrato looked very impressive when winning at Chepstow on his first run for Paul Nicholls and was subsequently a respectable fourth at Cheltenham. Third placed Imprenable won his next two starts before finishing second in the Groupe II Prix Georges de Talhouet-Roy and fourth in the Groupe I Prix Cambaceres. File au Poteau in fourth won a useful conditions hurdle at Auteuil in October, fifth placed Coup de Coeur is one of the better chasers of his generation, the sixth placed Mourinho Has won a valuable handicap at the venue before finishing fifth in the Cambaceres and the only other finisher is a dual winner in the provinces. Representing a Gary Moore yard with a strong and solid record in the sphere, Porticello was thrown straight into pattern company for his British debut, which came in the Wensleydale Hurdle at Wetherby towards the end of October. His Grandak form was enough to see him sent off the 6/4 favourite and he was able to win quite comfortably in the end. However, his round of hurdling was anything but impressive and there was not a flight where he jumped especially well. Slow and untidy at the first, he hopped over the second, skewed when steady at the third, steady again when close to the fourth, close at the fifth, hit the top of the sixth, was big and steep over the seventh and two out (where he stumbled on landing) and big again over the last. Racing close to the lead throughout, he did travel well in fairness and though he did not kick on after taking the lead at the first flight in the home straight, and wandered quite conspicuously under pressure, he did eventually run out a decisive four length winner while giving away upwards of five pounds. Though decent enough at face value, the performance was still someway short of his Auteuil outing. Nevertheless, in keeping with his pedigree and profile, he could have been described as green and unfurnished horse with the potential to make a very good horse once he matures and gets a trip and he demonstrated significant improvement in his constitution during the six weeks which preceded his latest outing, which came in the Grade 2 Summit Hurdle at Doncaster just over a fortnight ago. Solid in the market and sent off the 6/4 favourite, Porticello jumped much better overall with tight and steady leap at the first followed by four good jumps from the front. Increasing the tempo on entering the straight, Porticello made his first real error three out as he rather hopped onto the top of the flight, flattening it in the process. He was good when shaken up on the approach to the penultimate hurdle and though still showing signs of greeness, was still doing enough to fend off the proven speedsters Knight Salute and Impulsive One. However, his immaturity would manifest with another clumsy leap over the last which cost him momentum and two positions in a matter of strides. Despite having to track back briefly, Porticello managed to regain second on the run-in and may well have finished closer but for his transgressions. Whether he would have been able to outbattle Knight Salute is another matter. Nevertheless, the Summit performance would still be much the strongest domestic form and supplements the promise shown in the Grandak. While Gary Moore, who enjoyed a Boxing Day treble at Fontwell, has yet to win the Finale, he has saddled Nassalam, Sussex Ranger and Adopted Hero to finish placed and Porticello has arguably more potential than any of these. With further improvement still a very feasible prospect, particularly on this softer ground, Porticello sets a strong standard for his rivals to match.

Rocky Man bc Dan Skelton f2-1-0 (-) j2-0-1 (-) 109 121
Doctor Dino (Speedmaster){7-a}(0.33) 2/1 Rosarina 1st 3500m 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Toulouse 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/rocky-man
Dan Skelton won this race in 2019 with Allmankind and is responsible for In This World, who features most prominently of the British trained horses in the Triumph markets. Nevertheless, his chosen one for this year’s Finale is the twice raced maiden, Rocky Man. By Doctor Dino, half of whom’s British and Irish juveniles (including Sceau Royal, Fil Dor, Good Ball and Dino Mite) won during their first campaigns and his three-year-old jumpers in France have an outstanding winner to runner rate of 42.86% from ninety-one horses. Though the damline is less prolific in the sphere, which is understandable given that the third dam was a Chilean import, Rocky Man’s auntie did win a four-year-old hurdle at Toulouse. After making an inconspicuous debut at Machecoul back in February, Rocky Man got off the mark in emphatic style when winning a restricted two mile contest at Saumur. Initially racing in the lead, he was restrained to settle behind the leaders passing the stands first time. He would take up the running again leaving the back for the final time and was ridden into the best part of a ten length lead at the distance before being eased in the last hundred metres. The race, being worth just €10,500, has produced just one subsequent winner in a modest Argentan hurdle, although the well beaten runner-up has run consistently in subsequent outings so his valeur of 29.0 (63.8) gives some indication of the form’s merit. Rocky Man’s DI of 0.33, along with his winning over two miles during the spring, may leave him vulnerable to the pacier juveniles in the upper echelons, and he found himself at the hands of a comprehensive drubbing by Magistrato on his British/hurdling debut at Chepstow in early October. He does possess a strong reputation however and was subject to solid market support beforehand which saw him sent off the 3/1 second favourite. Tracking the leader throughout, posted a perfectly acceptable round of jumping with only his being slightly steady and tight at the first, and somewhat untidy and slow getting away from the last, being his only blemishes. Rocky Man briefly threatened the lead at the top of the straight, but had no answer for Magistrato’s relentless galloping. Next seen in the Grade 2 Prestbury Hurdle at Cheltenham in November, Rocky Man had some outside support in the market, but was still sent off the 11/1 fifth favourite of nine. Held up at the rear of the field, Rocky Man was just about in touch on the turn for home, but never even feigned any serious involvement and was outpaced by all rivals; front-runners, closers and all. To his credit, he finished within five lengths of the winner in conditions which were patently unsuitable. Several of his opponents have stronger form in the book, but there is a real possibility that these conditions could see significant improvement from Rocky Man and with the yard back in form with a Market Rasen double, a good showing would not come as a surprise.

Romeo’s Bond bg Milton Harris f5-0-0 (55) 60 j2-1-1 (111) 102 102
Monsieur Bond (Daylami){20-c}(1.67) 0.5 Stimulating Song 1st 2m5f Handicap Hurdle (128), Cheltenham 2020
Stablemate of Genuflex, Romeo’s Bond ran five times on the flat without starting shorter than 22/1, or finishing nearer than fifth. Prior to his switching to hurdles, sire Monsieur Bond had just one winner from seventeen in the division. Nevertheless, half-brother and stablemate Stimulating Song has shown useful hurdles form despite also having a speedy sire in Stimulation. The application of cheekpieces, the yard’s fine season and the abysmal quality of the field saw Romeo’s Bond start the 3/1 second favourite on his hurdling bow. Held up in touch in a steadily run affair, Romeo’s Bond joined the leader three from home and was travelling strongest, albeit slightly awkwardly, on the run to two out. After a clean jump at the last, he wandered both due to pressure and being alone, but still won comfortably in the end. His jumping was also reasonable, with his only real flaw coming when getting tight while hopping over the second. Very little can be said of the form and a better evaluation can be made of his second to Forever Blessed at Sandown early this month. A big drifter during the day before being clipped four points to 12/1 in the ring, Romeo’s Bond tracked the leaders and though unsure at times, was largely proficient over his hurdles. The race was beginning to fall apart behind the leading trio when he was steady and close before slipping on landing at the penultimate hurdle. This cost him whatever of the little chance he had with Forever Blessed, but he was still able to grab a remote second at the post. Romeo’s Bond comes into this contest with the lowest rating in the field; a mark which exceeds anything he has done over flat or hurdles to the best part of ten pounds. There is little in his profile to suggest he can get seriously involved in this contest.

Saint Riquier grc Ian Williams f3-1-0 (-) – j4-0-3 (123) 111 122
Le Havre (Montjeu){5-g}(0.60) 3/2 Fashion Mix 1st 3300m 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Cagnes-sur-Mer 2004
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/saint-riquier
Several former inmates of Mikel Delzangles have done well in juvenile hurdles with the likes of Ranjaan and Dispour contributing to a solid 27.78% winner to runner rate. While his higher rated exports often command six figures in public auction, Saint Riquier joined Ian Williams after getting knocked down for €33,000 at the Arqana Summer Sale. Well beaten at Fontainbleau on his sole outing at two when slow out of the stalls, he ran a nothing race on his February reappearance at Machecoul over 2350m in testing conditions. He returned after a four month break in a 2200m French bred’s maiden contest at Erbray. Initially held up in touch, he moved into a more prominent position during the second circuit and while he did not completely understand the game, Saint Riquier did enough work in the straight to eventually win by a short neck. The runner-up, in receipt of three and a half kilos, is rated in the early sixties and the remaining form would give Saint Riquier a mark on the cusp of 70. Le Havre has had one winner from six in Britain and Ireland, while his winner to runner rate in France, where his progeny are headed by the useful Chaptal, is a solid 18.92%. There are few jumpers on the damline, although Fragrant Mix at 3/1 is a reasonably capable sire of jumpers. Saint Riquier’s British/Hurdling debut came at Ludlow early in October and there was little confidence in the market. Starting the day at 10/3, he opened on course at 13/2 before drifting out to 10/1 at the off. Starting the race keenly but settling better before long, his hurdling left a fair bit to be desired. Stumbling slightly on landing at the first, he was tight at the third, steady and close over the fourth, slow over the next before rather missing the sixth. Notwithstanding, after initially racing in the rear, he made good headway along the back and despite getting baulked at the penultimate hurdle, was still in a challenging position on the run to the last. However, he skewed badly over the final flight and could only plug on at one pace to finish fourth behind Mister Allegro and Genuflex by just under six lengths. Saint Riquier was then seen at Huntingdon on Halloween where he was more solid in the market and sent off the 13/8 favourite. Held up in midfield and settling better in first-time cheekpieces, Saint Riquier also improved in the hurdling department. Unfazed by getting blocked on landing at the first, he jumped his hurdles well enough with his only errors being getting close to the fifth and skewing when slow at the next. Making headway to join the leaders at the top of the straight, he led briefly on the run between the final two and held a share of the lead at the last. However, while he ran gamely enough to the line, Alan King’s Twilight Twist was able to pull out a decisive length with the front two pulling a long way clear. Ian Williams does not typically overface his juveniles at Cheltenham and indeed had the Fred Winter second in 2005. Nevertheless, this did not prevent his being sent off the 50/1 outsider in the Prestbury Hurdle. Tucked in just behind the leaders, Saint Riquier put in a solid round of jumping blemished only by a couple of insignificant errors. Though seemingly having only the one gear at the business end of the race, proving no match for Knight Salute, he was able to take advantage of the fading Magistrato to run into second in the dying strides. Three weeks later, Saint Riquier was made favourite to shed his maiden tag in a such named contest at Warwick. However, his jumping, while reasonable early on rather deteriorated over the last three hurdles. That said, though he had no trouble matching Graystone up to the back of the straight, and did finish twelve lenghts ahead of the remainder, he had no answers or excuses for the winners seven length superiority. Saint Riquier really should not end the season without a win, but while he should not be disgraced here, he will most likely find more than one too good.

Saint Segal bg Jane Williams j1-1-0 (-) 117 109
Saint des Saints (Ballingarry){9}(0.71) 1/0 Bal Celtique 3rd Prix Predicateur (L,57.0), Auteuil 2016
Like Forever Blessed, Saint Segal made his racecourse debut in a British juvenile hurdle. Unlike Forever Blessed, Saint Segal is a French bred whose first time strike rate as unraced juveniles stood at a still interesting 4.35% ahead of his Bangor debut. Costing €51,000 as a two-year-old, Saint Segal is certainly the more traditionally bred of the pair. Sire Saint des Saints has a winner to runner rate of 32.43% which includes the likes of Monmiral, Le Rocher and Fusil Raffles. Dam Bal Celtique finished third in a listed handicap at Auteuil and has already produced a pattern placed filly in Celtic Girl. The Williamses of George Nympton are also no strangers to running decent unraced juveniles with Me Voici and Reve de Sivola (first and third in this very contest) two leading examples. Making his debut at Bangor back in November, Saint Segal was sent off a fairly steady 3/1 favourite. Tracking the leader, he was shaken up to challenge three furlongs out before going into the lead under a drive a furlong from home; after which he was pushed out on the run-in to win by three cosy lengths. Slightly novicey over the first couple of hurdles, Saint Segal settled into a sound enough rhythm and while he clipped a few towards the end, there can be no real dissatisfaction with his jumping. The pace was not the quickest, but the time was still quite reasonable. However, though the form is not completely without substance, the runner-up failed to justify favouritism at Leicester next time and the third quite likely ran below his best. Notwithstanding, Saint Segal’s career has started on a solid foundation and as the stable has produced two winners and three thirds in this race, a fair effort would not be unexpected.

Skycutter bg Philip Kirby f13-1-7 (89) 96 j2-2-0 (127) 120 123
Scissor Kick (Hurricane Run){17-b}(0.39) 2/1 Kyrov 1st Prix Cambaceres (G1), Auteuil 2021
Scissor Kick was a Group Three winning sprinter in Australia by a Caulfield Guineas winner in Redoute’s Choice. The former was zero from four in this sphere, but the Danehill line is capable of producing sires of winning juveniles. Coming from the Danehill line is not the most pertinent element of Skycutter’s pedigree as his granddam, along with being a sibling to three winnng jumpers including Brave Helios, has produced this season’s champion three-year-old hurdler in Kyrov. Damsire Hurricane Run, whose record with juveniles is a positive one, gave more than a hint towards latent stamina in Skycutter’s pedigree who was campaigned accordingly on the flat. Initially with Jo Hughes, Skycutter finished fourth over a mile in listed company at two before breaking his duck at the sixth time of asking in a ten furlong, heavy ground, Compiegne maiden at the end of October. After two respectable runs in the spring, Skycutter arrived at Phillip Kirby’s with a rating of 88. Two neck defeats at Ripon and Newbury saw his mark creep up to 91 and while he finished down the field at Ascot and York, he bounced back to form with a good fourth in the November Handicap. His mark of 89 makes him much the highest rated flat recruit in the field, and second only to one in the British division thus far. Such a mark was sufficient in seeing him start odds-on for his hurdling debut at Wetherby where he faced one of Oliver Greenall’s who was rated just a pound lower on the flat. Going straight into the lead, Skycutter had a tendency of wandering and while he was clever enough to correct a mistimed leap at the second, developed a habit of jumping to his right. Having things his own way up front, he was able to dictate a stop start tempo which worked much to his benefit and to the detriment of his rivals. Despite an unorthodox style of travelling and jumping, along with a bad error from his main rival, Skycutter was able to run out a convincing six and a half length winner. Skycutter’s next port of call was an introductory hurdle at Musselburgh where he started the 1/2 favourite. He once again had his own way up front and went into the straight with a lead of over a dozen lengths. The runner-up was able to close to within a length at the half-furlong marker, but could make no further inroads from there and Skycutter did enough to win by two and twenty-nine lengths. Given how the race unfolded, it is difficult to get an accurate measure of the form’s worth and a comparison of times with the handicap on the card is also tricky due to that race having an uneven tempo. Notwithstanding, it can be confidently said that Skycutter can jump well when going the right direction and is not without pace or class. There are reasons to suspect that he may have been flattered in some regards and if he jumps as he did at Wetherby then he will be in trouble. An unknown quantity with unquestionable ability and aptitude, but others have more substantial profiles.

Tease And Seize bg Olly Murphy f7-0-2 (64) 67 j2-2-0 (-) 106 112
Motivator (Anabaa){5-h}(1.27) 2/2 Silverlord 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Down Royal 2010
A maiden after seven starts on the flat for Rod Millman, Tease and Seize has already bettered his two handicap placings by making it two from two over hurdles. Joining Olly Murphy, a trainer with a good winner to runner rate and solid improvement rate, helped in his cause although there is also some credit in his pedigree. A cousin of winning hurdler Silverlord, Tease and Seize is also by a Motivator who has little issue getting winning juveniles as his rate of 34.21% attests. Five months after finishing fourth in a Salisbury handicap, Tease And Seize made his hurdles bow at Ludlow where he was just squeezed out of a three way battle for favouritism. Held up off a solid tempo, Tease and Seize jumped nicely over the first six hurdles. Making his move forward towards the end of the back, he was a couple of lengths behind the lead at three out where he got in fairly close. Still on the bridle while taking a hold, he rather reached at two out but despite wandering, held a length’s lead over the last whereafter he was pushed out for a cosy four length success. He returned at the start of December for a similar contest at Market Rasen where he was a solid 6/5 favourite. Racing in midfield under a keen hold, he posted another round of jumping which was sound in the early and middle parts. Making his move after turning into the straight, he comfortable got to the leaders at the penultimate flight where he was somewhat untidy. Shaken up on the run to the last, he jumped upsides his rivals and despite a slightly awkward jump, was then able to put distance between himself and his rivals, running on for another four length success. Tease And Seize has shown himself a capable juvenile and could improve further for the conditions. However, despite winning twice, the standard of form he has shown thus far leaves him more to find than most in this field.

Strong prospects
1. Porticello
Reasonable prospects
2. Forever William
3. Rocky Man
4. Forever Blessed
Feasible prospects
5. Iroko
6. Magistrato
7. Saint Segal
8. Skycutter
Moderate prospects
9. Saint Riquier
10. Genuflex
11. Tease And Seize
Negligible prospects
12. Romeo’s Bond

[IanDavies]

Skycutter.

(My somewhat less informative preview then the great man’s).

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[sporting sam]

There are some massive tempting prices here BH, especially for beaten favourites and horses whose form has been franked by subsequent winners who finished behind them.
Saint Riquer and Iroko appeal most to me and their previous runs have persuaded me to back them both each way.
Brilliant news about your appointment congratulations.

[IanDavies]

He insists it’s never a tipping piece, but the great man gets it right yet again.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Bachelors Hall]

Hi Sam
I think we both had very different opinions to the bookies. While Rocky Man was a bit of a flop, Forever William was a stupid price. Think Iroko is definitely one to keep on side over the coming months. Possibly a Fred Winter contender?

Hi Ian
A tipster makes suggestions on which horses to bet on. Since gambling is a pastime completely devoid of virtue, I could never, in good conscience, encourage others to do such a thing. I am merely a bloke who occasionally writes about races as comprehensively as is required in order to fully appreciate a contest for its own sake. Should others choose to use my content in a sinful manner, that is completely out of my hands! :D

Might have tomorrow off and go for a walk or something; apparently there’s a world outside of horse racing with nature and stuff… So here’s the preview for Wednesday’s fillies’ maiden at Doncaster. Enjoy!

DONCASTER – 29th DECEMBER – PREVIEW
Sprinter Sacre made his chasing debut at Doncaster on the 9th of December 2011, and the previous race was the first Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle to be held north of Fakenham. That contest, won by Dubawi Dancer, amounted to little form wise. Moved to the 29th of December the following year, the race was won by the useful Cockney Sparrow. Nevertheless, being a restricted maiden, the race has otherwise been a fairly moderate affair with the average winner’s seasonal RPR being just 111.69; although the 2019 introduction of the venue’s Listed Fillies’ race hosted the following month has seen three participants collect some easy black type. This year’s renewal looks customarily average with the form standard being set by one of just two flat winners in the line-up. A mostly flat, left-handed galloping venue, the average winning DIs at Doncaster 1.12 median, 1.34 mean, are just slightly lower than average. This would be in keeping of the good drainage at the South Yorkshire venue as supported by the 90.19% completion rate. The clear round rate of 96.99% is also a fair one although hurdling debutants can find the circuit trickier than usual. Odds-on favourites in juvenile hurdles have a better than average strike rate and all three such horses in this particular contest have obliged. Several of these can take a hold and a couple have led or raced prominently so there should be an honest enough gallop. The going is currently described as good to soft, soft in places and some rainy spells are anticipated in the meantime.

Cirrus chf Milton Harris f15-0-3 (65) 77 j2-0-1 (-) 68 67
Starspangledbanner (Halling){5-e}(3.00) 0.5 Spiritual Art 1st 2m1f Mares’ Maiden Hurdle, Newton Abbot 2011
Now a fifteen race maiden on the flat, Cirrus has failed to reach the frame in seven outings in that sphere since finishing third at Nottingham in early May, and has fared little better for Milton Harris. Leaving Richard Hannon for 15,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale, Cirrus had shown her best form when under a length third at the aforementioned Nottingham off 73, and on her final outing for her former handler when just over two lengths fifth of seven at Bath off the same mark; with both of these performances coming on good to soft ground. This factor, along with a feasible pedigree (being a Starspangledbanner half-sister and niece of winning hurdlers) gave some cause for optimism that she may do better over jumps. Making her hurdling debut at Fontwell at the beginning of October, Cirrus was weak in the market beforehand and started the race at 16/1. Held up in midfield, she hurdled decently overall for the most part and was still moving well enough on rounding the home turn. However, fears over her first-time tongue tie manifested as she folded very tamely before finishing a thirty-seven length last of three. A respiratory noise was reported after the race and a wind operation was conducted within the week. Given a good six weeks to recover, Cirrus went back to Fontwell while her yard was in white hot form. However, there was no confidence in the market and she jumped poorly without going a yard before finishing fifty-five lengths behind the winner. This lacklustre performance was more in keeping with a disenchantment about the game rather than a lack of fitness. Tongue tie and cheekpieces were applied for a spin on the flat at Kempton ten days ago, but she ran according to her 50/1 odds and hung right on her way to finishing over eleven lengths fifth of seven. Cirrus’s very best flat form would not leave her without a chance in this field, but she has plenty to answer for with respect to her enthusiasm.

Dooby bf Sam Allwood b1-0-0 (-) 27
Pearl Secret (Duke Of Marmalade){16-c}(3.00) 3/2 Ruz Gwenn Ha Du 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Nimes 2021
Juveniles who begin their careers in junior bumpers have a modest record when they go over hurdles. The winner to runner rate is a modest 5.15% while their first time strike rate stands at just 2.26%. Moreover, the record of those who recorded RPRs lower than 60 have just one win from two-hundred-and-eighty-five; which did not come first time out. Dooby who made her debut in a Wetherby bumper early this month, lost her position half a mile from home and finished tailed off. Both trainer and sire alike are zero from two with juvenile hurdlers, although the former has sent out two winners from three in the past fortnight. The dam won a bumper but never raced over hurdles and the closest winning jumper on the damline appears at 3/2.

Fleeting Blue chf Tony Coyle f5-0-0 (43) 45 j1-0-0 (-) 60 75
French Navy (Arakan){20-c}(1.53) 2/1 Jauntyl 3rd 2m Maiden Hurdle, Chepstow 2009
The lowest rated of those from the flat, Fleeting Blue’s last appearance in that sphere came when fourth of six in a poor Redcar claimer. Her hurdling debut came in a Wetherby maiden five weeks ago where she was sent off at 150/1. Racing keenly while held up in the rear, a long way off a bizarre pace, Fleeting Blue jumped reasonably save for missing the fourth and skewing at the next. She made some relative ground on the turn for home and though twenty-six lengths behind the third, did finish best of the rags. There may one day be a mark low enough for her to compete from, but she would be unlikely to make it twenty-seventh time lucky in this sphere for her trainer Tony Coyle.

Galah bf Milton Harris f12-1-5 (72) 83 j2-0-2 (113) 101 109
Australia (Invincible Spirit){14-c}(0.68) 2/1 Counsel 4th Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2012
Ralph Beckett is amongst the more prolific suppliers of juvenile hurdlers to the division with fifty-five leaving Kimpton Down Stables to go hurdling since 2004/05. Fourteen of these have been winners, a healthy rate of 25.45%, and while just 25% improve for the switch the bulk of these do bring higher than average flat ratings. One such horse is Galah who finished her two-year-old season with a Thirsk nursery win to her name, and a rating of 81. Her second campaign saw her mark drop nine pounds and though she was not beaten far in four of her six outings in handicaps, a tendency to pull and hang right did compromise her efforts. Consequently, she changed hands for the relatively modest sum of 21,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join a Milton Harris team that has been flying this season. Her pedigree is an encouraging one for the game as Australia and Invincible Spirit have solid records as sire and damsire respectively, with their descendants often maintaining their flat form over hurdles. Uncle Counsel was a useful juvenile hurdler who finished fourth in a Summit Hurdle while Cinders and Ashes (3/2) and Minella Rocco (4/2) also appear on the damline. Galah’s hurdles bow came in a quite well contested introductory hurdle at Newcastle on the Fighting Fifth card. Starting at 14/1, she raced keenly while held up towards the rear of a tight and steady bunch. She held every chance at the distance but though she was quite readily left behind by the two experienced rivals, she fared best of the newcomers, finishing upwards of three lengths ahead of the remainder. Her round of jumping was lightly tarnished by slight, novicey errors but was satisfactory on balance with her only real mistake being an awkward jump three from home where her path was impeded by a rival. She was out again a fortnight later at Cheltenham where her starting price of 28/1 suggested she may be overfaced. Galah was still quite fresh racing in the rear, but the hood and tie (kept on here) did see her travel more comfortably. She made a couple of positions going down the hill and turned into the straight with a fighting chance. The leader was able to get first run and after another not-bad round of hurdling, Galah’s steady jump at the last cost her a stride or two of momentum. Nevertheless, while the first and second were out of sight, the latter an easy winner at Fontwell on Boxing Day, she was able to plug on for an honest third ahead of better fancied rivals who, to some degree, met trouble in running. The expected pace and conditions are unlikely to hinder her prospects and even with a conservative reading of her form, Galah sets a clear standard both on the flat and over hurdles.

Olympe de Gouges bf David Pipe f2-0-0 (-) 63
Charming Thought (Raven’s Pass){2-u}(2.43) 2/1 Demerara 1st 3300m 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Saint-Malo 2008
After finishing fifth of seven in an ordinary Chelmsford novice stakes last December on her sole start for John Gosden, Olympe de Gouges sold for 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls February sale to join David Pipe. The only other to make this trip was the 82 rated Vincent’s Forever who did little as a juvenile in 2016/17. Sire Charming Thought is zero from two as a sire and is unlikely to be a standard bearer of Oasis Dream in the division. Raven’s Pass is still without a winner from six as a damsire although the damline does contain winning hurdlers Demerara (2/1) and Javado (2/2). Olympe de Gouges has made just one appearance for stable, finishing tailed off in a Wolverhampton maiden in October having never left the rear. While David Pipe can do well in the division, only Malangen (who won a seller) would eventually win for the yard having shown below-average form on the flat.

Pump It Up chf Richard Spencer f12-1-3 (49) 59 j2-0-0 (86) 80 87
Charming Thought (Pivotal){1-l}(2.08) 3/1 General Eliott 1st 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (100), Market Rasen 2011
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EcjWd-O4jI
Awah, a place to stay, get your booty on the floor tonight, make my day… Though rated just forty-nine on the flat, Pump It Up was at least able to win in that sphere, landing a twelve furlong heavy ground handicap at Windsor off 46 back in August. Another representative of Charming Thought, the closest winning jumper on the damline is handicapper General Elliott at 3/1, while 1989 Kennel Gate winner Arden shows up at 4/1. Unfancied on her hurdling debut in a fillies’ maiden at Fakenham in late October, Pump It Up started prominently but lost her place towards the end of the first circuit. One paced in midfield during the second lap, she plugged on for a forty-two length fourth, jumping reasonably if slightly awkward in the process. Her latest appearance came in another fillies’ maiden at Leicester six weeks ago where she started at 28/1. Leading at a reasonable clip, she jumped well apart from clipping the fourth. Joined by her rivals towards the end of the back, she was outpaced by the market leaders at the top of the straight, plugging on to finish a fourteen length fourth of seven. This probably marked a new career best for Pump It Up although the form has been done no favours by the first three who were each outclassed next time. An honest filly who can jump well, Pump It Up could be competitive off her mark of 86, although that would not be enough to give her a winning chance here.

Ramure bf Stuart Edmunds j6-0-2 (106) 94 100
Maresca Sorrento (Blue Bresil){9-c}(0.33) 2/1 Ocean’s Wind 1st 3900m 4yH Saint Malo 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ramure
Initially with Patrice Lenogue in France, Ramure failed to trouble a judge but jumped reasonably well in three outings and probably warranted a mark in the mid-nineties in the process. Ahead of her stable/British introduction at Fontwell in early September, Ramure was a drifter during the day, but was steady enough in the ring to be sent off the 2/1 second favourite. Ridden with more patience than she had been in France, she made smooth headway along the back and travelled well into a challenging position entering the straight where she traded at 1.54 in-running. Managing to get within a length of the lead jumping the penultimate flight, she was keeping tabs on The Yellow Mini all the way to the last before said horse jumped in front of her on landing. This forced Ramure to reorganise herself and her inexperience showed when coming under pressure as she wandered, giving the impetus to the winner. Sensibly, she was not given a hard time from there by Ciaran Gethings. She was not quite so smooth over Fontwell’s hurdles, making a mistake at the second, wandered approaching the third and seventh and got very close to the sixth due largely to a lapse in concentration. Ramure’s second British outing came at Sedgefield where she was sent off 6/5 favourite. Initially racing keenly while tracking the leaders, she moved into the lead going out onto the second circuit and was still travelling well enough when going over the penultimate flight with a two length advantage. However, Knight Salute cruised past her on the run to the last where her skewing and stumbling on landing ended any hopes of her staging a comeback. This was not her only error as she was also steady when clipping the fourth and untidy when getting in close to the next, but it was an improvement on her Fontwell round and the form has since been boosted by the winner and the fourth placed We Still Believe; who has since finished third at Wetherby and second at Musselburgh. Ramure’s latest outing, coming in a fillies’ maiden at Fakenham, was something of a forgettable disaster. Gaining a pyrrhic victory in a ruinous early battle for the lead, Ramure was joined by the end of the first circuit and while she was able to stay prominent until the first in the back, the damage had been done and she weakened quickly thereafter before pulling up at the last. Such a frenetic display saw her put in a clumsy round of jumping and rather unsurprisingly, she was reported to have bled from the nose. A two month break is long enough for her to have recovered from her malady and if she has is feeling no ill effects from the experience, she has the form to run well for a trainer whose sole runner in this contest finished third in 2016.

Simply Red chf Oliver Greenalll b2-0-0 (-) 57 j1-0-0 (-) 68 75
Proconsul (Motivator){22-d}(0.76) 2/1 Teela 4th Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Sedgefield 2010
Another to have started her career in junior bumpers, Simply Red was beaten thirty-four lengths at both Market Rasen in October, and Aintree in November. Her fourth dam produced a winning novice hurdler in Resist The Force, but closer relatives achieved very little over jumps and sire Proconsul has yet to have any winners of any description. Simply Red made her hurdling debut at Market Rasen early this month where she started at 100/1. Held up in the rear, making a few minor errors, she never remotely threatened to get involved although she did pass a few beaten horses in the straight to finish a twenty-three length fourth. The form looked quite modest beforehand and has been done few favours by those who have been out since.

Tiki Fire bf Neil King f7-0-3 (64) 70 j2-0-0 (-) 90 90
Awtaad (Big Shuffle){1-h}(1.46) 3/2 Dictum 1st 2m3f Novices’ Chase, Haydock 2007
Initially with Karl Burke, Tiki Fire placed twice as a two-year-old at Haydock and Newcastle and would largely hold her form on four outings this term without troubling the judge. Selling for 10,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale, she joined a Neil King yard with healthy winner to runner and improvement rates of 31.25% and 54.05% respectively. Sire Awtaad is another first crop sire, but while the Cape Cross line does get juveniles, Awtaad himself is not the tallest, was untried beyond a mile and his three runners to date have achieved little. Tiki Fire is quite tenuously related to Don Cossack (4/3) though the decent chaser Dictum is a slightly closer relative at 3/2. Making her hurdling debut in the same Fakenham contest as Pump It Up and Ramure, Tiki Fire was quite weak in the market. Racing in a first time hood, she never left the rear of the field and made a couple of serious blunders before finishing a tailed off last. With such a lamentable effort along with the yard’s juveniles rarely firing first time, better could have been anticipated for her next outing which came at Warwick earlier this month. Starting at 100/1, Tiki Fire was once again waited with, hopping over the first and doing so again when landing atop the second. She was tight at the third but was better at the next and was in the process of making decent headway when briefly losing her footing on landing at the fifth. Though she picked up the bit soon enough, her leaving her hind legs in the sixth and stumbling badly cost her valuable ground and momentum. Tiki Fire did her best to get back within shouting distance but the race was gone by the time she entered the straight and after being slow away from two out, would merely plug on to finish fourth. Her effort was better than the bare result suggests and while she wont want it too soft (was withdrawn from an engagement at Aintree) and has something to find with Galah, she has less to prove than Ramure and can emerge as the main danger.

tl;dr
Cirrus – Peak flat form is strong in the context of this field profile is very feasible for hurdling career. However, while Fontwell debut was not without promise, her return to that venue raised a lot of questions and a recent flat spin did nothing to allay misgivings.

Dooby – Recruits from junior bumpers have modest record and sole outing at Wetherby was a modest performance. Nothing in profile to suggest switch to hurdles will being about sufficient improvement.

Fleeting Blue – Lowest rated on flat and 150/1 for hurdles bow. Jumped reasonably and made some ground from rear but still well beaten and plenty to find.

Galah – Best of these on the flat and bred to make a decent juvenile hurdler. Promising third in much better company at Newcastle and Cheltenham and sets a clear standard.

Olympe de Gouges – Left John Gosden for moderate fee after a moderate sole performance. Related to winners but not the most enticing pedigree and failed to show at Wolverhampton in October. Yard can do well but generally with more promising sorts.

Pump It Up – Won at low level on flat and has jumped quite well over hurdles. Honest filly who should stay, although while she would be competitive off her mark, has something to find here.

Ramure – Ex French maiden hurdler who placed on first two British outings. Latest effort at Fakenham, where she bled, was a disaster. Has the ability to go well but questions to answer.

Simply Red – Slightly less modest in bumpers than Dooby but still showed nothing of value in context of this race. Minor errors and passed beaten horses at Market Rasen but form still leaves her short.

Tiki Fire – Consistent on the flat at her own level for Karl Burke. Joined good yard for juvenile hurdling campaign. Forgettable debut at Fakenham but shaped with promise at Warwick. Yet to reach Galah’s standard but has more substantial profile than most.

Strong prospects
1. Galah
Reasonable prospects
2. Tiki Fire
3. Ramure
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Pump It Up
5. Cirrus
6. Olympe de Gouges
Negligible prospects
7. Fleeting Blue
8. Simply Red
9. Dooby

[Bachelors Hall]

FONTWELL – 30th DECEMBER – PREVIEW
Since the 2004/05 season, the likes of Grumeti, Dolos, Sanctuaire, Penzance and Grand Sancy have competed around Taunton during their juvenile campaigns. However, when isolating honest to goodness juvenile hurdles at the venue, the quality of participant is considerably more humble. The average winner’s seasonal RPR stands at just 109.16 and from the four runnings of this particular contest, only Night Edition (fourth in 2019) achieved anything of note by finishing second in the Finesse and the Fred Winter. This season’s renewal, however, could prove to be quite exceptional. Though it would be careless to suggest that the field is littered with festival horses in waiting, it carries considerably more quality and depth than the standard Taunton juvenile and it could well be the best juvenile contested at the Somerset venue. Graystone sets a good standard on British form while Brainstorm is an enigmatic French winner with a promising profile but has yet to deliver. The newcomers are headed by Kingston Hill’s first good looking offspring to go jumping in the apparently well-regarded Irish Hill, along with a French flat winner with respectable form. Alan King, Milton Harris and Olly Murphy are also represented by debutants who would be interesting in an ordinary contest.

A sharp, right handed venue, Taunton’s winning DIs (after the removal of outliers) of 1.18 median, 1.32 mean are just on the lower side of average, with the figures broadly matching those of the average participant. The clear round rate of 95.49% is half a point lower than standard with the completion rate at a comparable level. Newcomers have a lower strike rate than experienced runners at the venue. However, most juveniles participate at Taunton during the spring and in this particular contest, of which there have been four runnings, three were taken by a horses running over British hurdles for the first time; though two had been placed in France with the third having ran in that country on the flat. Three previous winners have competed in the race, with two placing and the other falling with every chance. Graystone is a likely pacesetter but as others have raced prominently, the pace should be a solid and honest one. The going is currently good to soft, soft in places and light rain is expected on the morning of the race.

Brainstorm bg Sophie Leech j4-1-1 (122) 101 106
No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2
Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm – a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiègne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner ahead of a Kentaway who has since landed a couple of claimers at Auteuil. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch’s money, joining Sophie Leech in the process. Brainstorm returned from a wind operation and a summer break in a valuable Auteuil handicap some fifteen weeks ago. However, he was struggling from a long way out before pulling up along the back straight. Sophie Leech does have a fair winner to runner rate of 23.53% with British juveniles, though none have scored first time out. Brainstorm had the profile and, for a moment on his debut, the prowess to be a good recruit to the sphere. However, since blundering on his debut, his performances can be described as enigmatic at best and he has plenty of questions to answer.

Graystone rgg Lucy Wadham f11-3-3 (74) 80 j3-1-2 (124) 117 119
Dark Angel (Distorted Humor){8-k}(3.00) No jumps relatives
Costing 50,000 guineas at the Craven Breeze-up at two-years-old, Graystone is a son of Dark Angel out of a half-sister to a Grade 1 winning American filly. Though precociously bred, Graystone’s first piece of flat form came when winning on his first outing at three in a seven furlong Yarmouth handicap off 66. From there, he would mostly perform consistently and maintain steady improvement; reaching a new level when stepped up to ten furlongs. Failing by a head to win a soft ground Beverley handicap on his penultimate flat outing, he made amends on his final start in that sphere when winning his third race at Kempton off 71. Graystone had a tendency to race freely on the flat and while Dark Angel gets winning juveniles. his record is only fair. Furthermore, given the American pedigree, there are no jumpers on the damline until one goes back eleven dams and forward seven to find Beau Trempoli. Nevertheless, Lucy Wadham does very well with her juvenile hurdlers (thirteen winners from twenty-seven prior to Graystone) and with a BHA mark in the eighty-second percentile of flat rated recruits, Graystone went off the 5/1 second favourite for his hurdles bow in a useful looking Warwick contest in early November. Setting off in a prominent position, he skewed over the first and became lit up after getting close to the second. He was alright when ridden into the third but a big and skewed jump at the fourth cost him the lead and a couple of places. Graystone was slow again over the next two and while he regained the lead by the time they reached the home straight, was outjumped by the winner at the penultimate flight. His round was capped off by a very awkward leap at the last, but while the winner had flown, he got the better of the third by three lengths. The form, which looked reasonable at the time, has since been given some major boosts. In This World has not been out since but his victim in an AQPS bumper, Fil Dor, has emerged as the deserved favourite for the Triumph after some emphatic performances. Meanwhile, third placed Interne de Sivola won at Cheltenham ahead of two subsequent winners. With this in mind, Graystone’s second appearance over hurdles, coming in an all aged maiden at Huntingdon, can only be regarded as disappointing; as per his starting price of 1/2. Held up in the rear of midfield, he was already shaken up six furlongs from home and while he made some headway into contention towards the end of the back, he had no extra to give and would merely plug on into third on the run-in. His jumping also left plenty to be desired and the form has been besmirched by the clear winner, who pulled up next time, and the fourth, who was one length behind and has since been well beaten in a maiden and a selling handicap. Nevertheless, a return to Warwick brought about a return to winning ways as Graystone, sent off an unsteady 11/4 second favourite, was able to register his first win over hurdles. Reverting to a front-running role while taking a keen grip, Graystone was always travelling well within himself and had all but one of his rivals toiling on entering the straight. He was still given to making careless mistakes but apart from clambering over the last, where he had the race in safe keeping, there was nothing alarming about his aptitude and he ran out a comfortable seven length winner. The runner-up was predictably outclassed at Chepstow next time, but the fourth did run creditably at Doncaster. Graystone’s sets a clear standard on his hurdles form and though some newcomers could present a solid test of his ability under a penalty, there is still scope for further improvement and front running can be advantageous around Taunton.

Bryanwood bg Bernard Llewellyn f7-0-1 (60) 67 j1-0-0 (-) 26 26
Garswood (Acclamation){9-h}(1.00) 3/1 Atamane 2nd Grand Prix d’Automne (G1), Auteuil 2008
No better than a fair and rather inconsistent maiden on the flat for Michael Dods, whose record as a supplier of juveniles is a respectable one, Bryanwood joined Bernard Llewellyn after fetching 8,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. His granddam is a half sister to classy French staying hurdler Ataman while Adjali also appears on the damline at 3/3. However, Garswood is still without a winning juvenile from six and there was little generous about Bryanwood’s 66/1 starting price on his Newbury hurdles debut a fortnight ago. Always towards the rear, he had his vision impeded when tripping over the first, but jumped reasonably from there apart from being slow away from the sixth. Nevertheless, he still finished a tailed off last of nine and would have a huge amount to find in this company.

Chadlington Lad bg Ben Pauling f2-0-0 (-) 64
Estidhkaar (Dubai Destination){3-g}(1.50) 0.5 House Island 2nd Winter Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Sandown 2019
Making his racecourse debut in the middle of July, Chadlington Lad beat just one of his nine rivals home but was still within six lengths of the winner and five subsequent scorers. The second of his two flat outings came at Newcastle two months later where he finished fourth of eight ahead of a couple of winners, edging left in the process. He has since left Ben Haslam to join a Ben Pauling yard which has saddled a reasonable three winning juveniles from fourteen; including one doing so first-time. Chadlington Lad is a half-brother to the grade two placed novice House Island while the useful Davoski is out of his third dam. However, Estidhkaar, like four of the other five sons of Dark Angel, has yet to produce a winning juvenile.

Chipping Away bg Olly Murphy f4-0-2 (62) 61
Gutaifan (Galileo){9-c}(0.37) 2/1 Adajal 1st 2m1f Handicap Chase (119), Cork 2010
After finishing towards the rear in a mid-April Newmarket maiden, Chipping Away closed the month with a three length second in an eleven furlong Southwell novice stakes. A month later over an extra furlong, he finished a two length third at Leicester behind a couple of horses now rated in the seventies. Chipping Away had one more outing on the flat, beaten twenty-five lengths in a Pontefract handicap six months ago. Formerly with Adrian Paul Keatley, whose former inmates are one winner from two in the sphere, Chipping Away joins an Olly Murphy yard with a decent winner to runner rate of 25.93% and a respectable first-time rate of 14.81%. Low flat ratings are no great hinderance for the stable either with a record of two winners from five for those rated below 65. Gutaifan, another son of Dark Angel, has had little success in the sphere and though the granddam produced a winning chaser, she also have five maiden jumpers to her name. Though not the most abject profile, there are others with more substantial attributes.

Clarendon Cross bg Sue Gardner f11-0-2 (59) 81 j1-0-0 (-) 52 50
New Approach (Exceed And Excel){26}(0.82) 2/1 Jumping Cats 1st 2m4f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (101), Fakenham 2021
Third on his two-year-old debut in a June Haydock maiden, Clarendon Cross ran without disgrace when eighth of nine in the Chesham Stakes for Richard Hannon. Following one more run at two, he finished a creditable sixth off 82 at Newbury on his reappearance. However, his subsequent decline in form was an exponential one and he finished a tailed off last on his final three outings with neither a gelding operation nor the application of blinkers or tongue tie arresting the slide. Sold for just £1,800 at the Goffs Autumn Sale, he joined a Sue Gardner yard that has yet to taste success in the sphere. Sire New Approach has a strong record in the sphere, the dam is a sister to two winning jumpers while also being a niece of Champion Hurdler Sublimity. Nevertheless, Clarendon Cross started at 150/1 for her jumping bow at Fontwell three weeks ago and ran accordingly. Held up towards the rear, he landed sharply at the second, pecked at the fifth, was very awkward at the sixth before finishing tailed off and beating just one home. With his initial flat promise and interesting pedigree, Clarendon Cross might one day develop into a low-grade handicapper but would have too much on his plate here.

Escobedo bc Milton Harris f10-0-2 (63) 76
Nathaniel (Lawman){6-e}(0.83) 3/2 Sephton 7th Juvenile Hurdle, Huntingdon 2019
Third at Ascot on his two-year-old debut and second in a Windsor handicap off 72 on his reappearance at the end of May, Escobedo has shown he can at least go well fresh. Those were his two best efforts on the flat for Richard Hannon and while he was still consistent for the most part, his final outing came when a beaten 5/4 favourite in a ten furlong Lingfield claimer. There is reason to suggest he may do better with a trip based on sirelines and his rallying after being outpaced on sole try over twelve furlongs. Selling for 18,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, he joined a Milton Harris who has had two winning juveniles from the three bought out of the Hannon yard. Sire Nathaniel has a fine record with juvenile hurdlers with Zanahiyr, Burning Victory and Navajo Pass amongst the ten winners from thirty; the progeny also boasting a respectable improvement rate of 53.33%. Jumpers are sparse on the immediate damline, although Happygolucky (4/3) and Elusive Dream (5/2) do appear further back. Escobedo has been set an unexpectedly tough task first time, but the yard’s juveniles returned to the winners’ enclosure with Galah at Doncaster and while there will be easier opportunities, he can run with credit here.

Girandole bg Mark Gillard f3-0-1 (50) 49 j1-0-1 (-) 85 90
No Nay Never (Whipper){4-r}(1.67) 3/1 Honoured 3rd 2m½f Novices’ Hurdle, Bangor 2011
Beginning his flat career in July, Girandole was beaten no less than twenty-four lengths and started no shorter than 150/1 in three outings. By No Nay Never, winless from twenty starts with an improvement rate of 16.67% in the field, the closest hurdler on the damline with form is the novice placed Honoured at 3/1. Mark Gillard has a 12.5% winner to runner rate in the sphere, yet such was the desperate quality of the field, Girandole was not only able to start at 20/1 for his hurdling debut at Exeter, but also finish second. Held up in the rear off a slow pace, Girandole had just one behind turning for home but was able to travel strongly into a prominent position by the time they reached three out. He was never reaching the winner, who wandered alone in front, but managed to hold on to third from another outsider. Despite the low quality of the contest, Girandole’s performance marked a new career best effort and further progression is not unfeasible. Notwithstanding, he would still need to improve by well over a stone to get involved here.

Irish Hill grg Paul Nicholls f4-2-1 (38.0/83.6) 80
Kingston Hill (Monsun){14-a}(0.47) 2/1 Idjen 1st 3800m Conditions Hurdle, Wissembourg 2008
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/irish-hill
The sadly departed Jeremy and Mastercraftsman, each from the Danehill Dancer line, have been two of the most successful sires of juveniles in recent years despite their Dosage Indexes being 1.82. Two other sons, Fast Company and Choisir, have improvement rates of 65% and 73% despite having DIs of 2.06 and 2.60 respectively. Indeed, the former is already developing a nice record as a grandsire of juveniles with Olympic Glory and Starspangledbanner building positive records for themselves. Kingston Hill, a St Leger winning son of Mastercraftsman out of a half-sister to the useful hurdler Lord Jim, has a DI of just 0.90 and is a smidge taller than leading juvenile sire Authorized. Naturally, Kingston Hill makes for a most intriguing addition to the ranks of jumps stallions which explains why he was transferred from Coolmore to the operation’s National Hunt base at Castle Hyde Stud. His first crop did not achieve a great deal due to a lack of firepower. However, recent Paul Nicholls recruit Irish Hill is a couple of stones superior to the other Kingston Hills seen in the division thus far. Starting his career with Peter Schiergen, whose exports to the juvenile division have a winner to runner rate of 20.83%, not including the useful maidens Landin and the Paul Nicholls trained Ecco, and an improvement rate of 58.33%. Though previously based in Germany, Irish Hill has raced exclusively in France and made his debut at La Crouse Laroche over 2,500m when third to subsequent Groupe III runner-up Tides Of War in April. He got off the mark later that month when winning a 2400m maiden at Lyon on good to soft ground by three quarters of a length. Irish Hill raced lazily when well beaten at Nantes in June, but regained the winning thread towards the end of July on his final appearance in France at Longchamp. Stepping up to 2,800m, he travelled on the good ground with much more vibrancy while tracking the leader, and though his rival was a tough nut to crack, Irish Hill was able to get his head in front inside the final half-furlong before scoring by a length and a quarter. The form has a solid look to it with four last time out winners in behind, the runner-up was a 72.6 rated filly in receipt of four and a half kilos, and the third won a quinte handicap next time out. Paul Nicholls already has a few French recruits with hurdling form out this season including winners Magistrato and Iceo. Nevertheless, his continental flat imports also have a strong record with 57.89% of them winning as juveniles including the likes of Zarkandar, Pierrot Lunaire and Zubayr. The damline, being of a predominantly Teutonic nature, does not have much in the way of famous hurdlers but there are still several who have won in the sphere including Idjen (2/1), Imago (3/1), Interpret (3/2) and Iligan (4/1). Subject of a flattering report from Tom Malone, Irish Hill has ample class and stamina to make an impact in the sphere. Paul Nicholls has a solid 20.59% first-time strike rate with his continental recruits and sent out Iceo to make a winning debut at Kempton ahead of landing an across the card treble on Wednesday. His strike-rate with juveniles at Taunton is an outstanding 38.78% and along with unleashing Sanctuaire, Pearl Swan, Dildar and Tulin at the venue over the years, he also introduced another import in the useful Friend Or Foe to make a winning British debut in this contest in 2018. Though the standard is a strong one for the course, and the yard’s juveniles improve even further from their first outings, Irish Hill’s profile is a most substantial one and he could very easily wind up being an early flag bearer for his potentially exciting sire.

Mind Hunter bg Bernard Llewellyn f4-0-1 (73) 77 j1-0-0 (-) 79 83
Gleneagles (Oasis Dream){1-l}(0.50) 4/1 King In Waiting 2nd Prelude Handicap Hurdle (128), Market Rasen 2011
Bernard Llewellyn has a solid winner to runner rate of 20.69% in the sphere despite acquiring most of his recruits for four digit sums. Mind Hunter, who finished a pound second in a Lingfield maiden to a now 86 rated filly, left Richard Hannon at the Tattersalls August Sale for 26,000 guineas; the most his new handler has spent on a juvenile. However, he failed to match that form in two races on the flat for the Llewellyn team, beaten upwards of a dozen lengths at Chester and Wolverhampton during the autumn. Sire Gleneagles has a fair 18.18% winner to runner rate in the sphere, but damsire Oasis Dream has significantly lower figures and one has to go to the fourth dam before finding winning jumpers. An easy 40/1 shot for his hurdling debut in a decent Newbury contest a fortnight ago, Mind Hunter raced in midfield and jumped left (not right as reported) on occasions. He lost his position once reaching the straight and jumped slowly before finishing well beaten. Better might be expected with experience, but his profile lacks substance and there was not enough in his debut to suggest he might get involved here.

Mothill bg Neil Mulholland f4-1-1 (39,0-85.8) 74
Golden Horn (Dansili){23}(0.69) 3/1 Moon Indigo 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Chase, Wetherby 2011
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/mothill
Another French flat recruit set to make his hurdling debut here is Mothill. He started his career with Jean-Claude Rouget, whose exports have a 35% winner to runner rate in the discipline and include such talents as Petite Parisienne, Kazlian and Baradari. These each fetched six digits at auction however and given that many of his exports will have lofty marks and expectations, the modest improvement rate of 17.14% is unsurprising. Mothill’s debut came in a 2000m newcomers’ race at Pau in late January. Sent off the even money favourite, he raced in touch on the outer and after hitting the front at the distance, was pushed out to win by four cosy lengths. Though the immediate impressions of newcomer races are subject to plenty of reappraisals, the second and fourth are seventy-ish rated animals. He was unable to justify favouritism next time when finishing ten lengths fourth in a 2100m Toulouse contest on soft ground in March. Mothill did return to form the following month at La Teste de Buch when second over 2400m in a similar contest on similar ground. Racing prominently once again, he saw off the long time leader turning for home but could not repel the challenge of Qaiser, plugging on at one pace for a length and a quarter second. Qaiser would land a hat-trick next time before finishing the season with a 90s rating while the third ended on 83 with the trio six lengths clear of the rest. Mothill’s latest outing came over the same trip but on good ground at Bordeaux towards the end of May. While he tracked the leaders for much of the contest, he was tapped for toe three furlong from home and could only manage a one paced, four-and-a-half length fifth. He then made up part of the Shadwell dispersal in the Tattersalls August sale where he was knocked down for an arguably modest 18,000 guineas to join Neil Mulholland. The master of Conkwell Grange has a respectable winner to runner rate of 23.68%, and a laudable improvement rate of 59.09% with juvenile hurdlers. His first-time strike rate is also decent at 16.67%, although he is currently winless from seven overall at Taunton. Golden Horn has one winner from four in the division but while Dansili has a good record as a sire, he is less prolific as a damsire. From the family of Honolulu, Cerulean Sky and Moonstone, jumpers are not the goal on the distaff side although cousin Royal Bench did place in pattern company in America while the fairly useful Moon Indigo comes from the third dam. Mothill has enough about his profile to suggest he can make a hurdler and his class, stamina and ability to handle soft can make him a decent recruit. Unless there is anything more to his low price tag than his being quite inconspicuous at the sales, there is little reason why Mothill can not give a good account of himself here.

Professor Calculus bg Nigel Hawke f6-0-1 (63) 66
Twilight Son (Alhaarth){4-i}(1.40) 0.5 Royal Roslea 2nd 2m4½f Handicap Hurdle (85), Sligo 2017
Presumably named after a chair at the University of Science, Professor Calculus is the fourth former inmate of Richard Hannon’s in this line-up. Following his debut at Newbury in mid-April, Professor Calculus finished a three length third in a seven furlong Salisbury novice stakes. The runner-up would win next time, but the form has otherwise amounted to little since and this would be the only time Professor Calculus finished within a dozen lengths of the winner. His six race tenure on the flat ended with his finishing last in a Leicester handicap five months ago and his latest BHA rating of 63 is only feasible from his Salisbury third. He joined Nigel Hawke for £5,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot Sale in November and though his new handler has a solid winner to runner rate of 20.97%, this figure drops to 10% when those formerly with Jim Bolger are removed. Furthermore, his first-time strike rate stands at 4.92% and although he has had two winning juveniles at Taunton, one came in an end-of-season mares’ novice, and the other in a class 5 handicap. Twilight Son has had a winner from two in the sphere thus far, and along with being a half-brother to a placed handicapper, Waxies Dargle (3/3) and Way Back Home (3/4) also descend from the third dam. However, it is difficult to see Professor Calculus being ready first time.

Shielded bg Nigel Hawke f6-0-2 (69) 73 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Buratino (Shamardal){3-o}(1.40) 2/1 Shebiyr 1st 3900m Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2009
A stablemate of Professor Calculus, Shielded did cost near twice the amount of the former and does have more than one piece of flat form to his name. Starting with Simon & Ed Crisford, Shielded finished third in a Wolverhampton on his second start at two, and in first-time visor, was denied a ten furlong Brighton handicap off 68 by a short head on his penultimate spin on the flat. A lacklustre showing at Kempton was followed by a 9,000 guinea sale at Tattersalls in the autumn. Prior to his hurdling bow at Catterick two weeks ago, sire Buratino was two from four with his first crop of hurdlers. The damline also features a few winners in Shebiyr (2/1), Shemdani (3/1), Shemshal (3/2) and Rawnaq (5/4). Nevertheless, Shielded drifted from a morning 12/1 to 50/1 at the off and though he started the race in midfield, his taking a hold and jumping overly big saw him perpetually losing ground along the back before he was pulled up after two out.

The Hood bg Alan King f5-0-0 (65) 73
Invincible Spirit (Red Ransom){14-c}(2.00) 0.5 Coltor 5th Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle (G3,127), Cheltenham 2020
Alan King is consistently one of the finest trainers of juvenile hurdlers in the country, as his winner runner rate of 47.79% and improvement rate of 53.55% will attest. He also has a 33.33% strike rate at Taunton where he has saddled Grumeti, Penzance and Blacko to make winning debuts; the latter winning this race in 2019. However, the Blacko was an ex-French hurdler and the former pair were each rated in the eighties on the flat. This is not to say he does not win with lower rated flat horses as his winner to runner rate of those rated lower than 50 is still a very good 41.66%; although only two of these achieved RPRs exceeding 112 which is likely to be a bare minimum requirement for this contest in which he unleashes the 65 rated, five race maiden, The Hood. Finishing an eight length seventh of eleven at Newbury in August 2020, he did exactly the same over ten furlongs at Nottingham on his return this April where the subsequent form of those ahead of him has been significantly better than of those in behind. Seventh again but beaten further at Salisbury and Leicester, he ran close to his best when last seen in a Newbury handicap five months ago. Establishing himself as one who races keenly, a first time hood did not see him settle much better. Nevertheless, he was able to make eyecatching headway along the straight although his effort petered out in the last half-furlong as he finished just over two lengths behind the winner in fourth. The Hood’s pedigree is quite the curate’s egg and the distaff portion is very good. Half-brother Coltor was a useful winning juvenile last term who placed fifth in the Fred Winter, cousin Limini won and placed at the Cheltenham Festival while the third dam produced pattern class juvenile Call My Guest as well as the useful jumps sire Overbury. However, although sire Invincible Spirit can produce jumpers, his record with juveniles is poor as he has had just one winning juvenile from sixteen; herself boasting a career best RPR of 95. While the trainer and damline are obvious sources of interest, The Hood rather lacks the overall class and the sirelines to be particularly threatening in this contest.

tl;dr
Brainstorm – Fantastic pedigree and was Guillaume Macaire’s chosen runner for a newcomers race he has won with top horses. Looked as good as his profile for the first six flights but has been of a questionable disposition ever since. Could be a useful addition to British ranks but his pulling up on first outing since a wind operation raises doubts.

Graystone – Strongest domestic flat form in this field and with yard that does well with juvenile hurdlers. Debut third at Warwick looking very good in hindsight and atoned for disappointing Huntingdon run when winning on return to Warwick. Can race keenly and prone to careless mistakes but sets the standard on hurdles form and setting the pace could see him to good effect.

Bryanwood – Inconsistent and ordinary maiden on flat. Interesting damline but sire less encouraging. Unfancied when well beaten at Newbury fortnight ago.

Chadlington Lad – Lightly raced with hints of promise for Ben Haslam. Trainer has had a winning debutant in the sphere and damline is credible but sire yet to prove himself in sphere and others have more substantial profiles.

Chipping Away – Bits and pieces of form for Adrian Paul Keatley and has joined a good yard. Mixed pedigree and no form since May. Not the worst recruit but unlikely to factor here.

Clarendon Cross – Tried at Royal Ascot at two for Richard Hannon but dramatic decline during three-year-old campaign. Interesting pedigree but unfancied when tailed off on jumps bow at Fontwell three weeks ago.

Escobedo – Fair maiden for Richard Hannon who can go well fresh. Could do better with trip and sire has strong record in sphere. Joins trainer doing very well this term and has had success with ex-Hannon horses. Can run with credit but tough task first time.

Girandole – Achieved very little on flat and pedigree lacks inspiration. Managed to finish second in hurdles debut at Exeter but that was a poor race. Could have future over hurdles but needs to find considerable improvement here.

Irish Hill – Strongest flat form in field courtesy of French efforts where he shaped as though new career would suit. First proper offspring of a potentially fascinating jumps sire. Has joined leading yard with that has introduced very good horses to win first time at this venue.

Mind Hunter – Fairly useful maiden for Richard Hannon and the most expensive juvenile for yard that does well in sphere with limited resources. Jumped left on sole hurdles outing a fortnight ago and much to prove short term.

Mothill – Close to Irish Hill in terms of ability for Jean-Claude Rouget yet sold arguably for cheap price at August sale. Feasible pedigree and joins capable yard. Can give good account.

Professor Calculus – Fair maiden for Richard Hannon sold inexpensively in November. Yard can do well in sphere but with different type and is not known for first-time winners.

Shielded – Stablemate of Professor Calculus. Better flat form but ran no kind of race on hurdling debut at Catterick.

The Hood – Represents top yard that can do well with lower rated flat horses, but not especially so at this level. Strong damline but weak sire. Races keenly but close to best when last seen – although this would still leave him short.

Strong prospects
1. Irish Hill
Reasonable prospects
2. Graystone
3. Mothill
Feasible prospects
4. Escobedo
5. Brainstorm
6. The Hood
Moderate prospects
7. Girandole
8. Chipping Away
9. Chadlington Lad
10. Mind Hunter
Negligible prospects
11. Shielded
12. Professor Calculus
13. Clarendon Cross
14. Bryanwood

[IanDavies]

Simply superb as usual.

I was there at Newmarket when Kingston Hill finished about four lengths eighth in what turned out to be a good 2,000 Guineas, there at Epsom Downs when he was beaten a length and a quarter by Australia in The Derby and there at Doncaster when he won the St Leger, beating Romsdal by the same margin.

He was also fourth in an Eclipse, fourth in an Arc and won all three of his races at two – he never ran a bad race in his life!

Such an exciting Jumps sire prospect.

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[GSP]

Amazing how that race when The Hood was 7th of 11 at Newbury (beaten 8 1/2 lengths) August 2020 was won by Alenquer, beaten 6 3/4 lengths in this year’s Arc.
A bit of that form would go a long way.

[sporting sam]

Hello BH some compelling analysis and as always grateful thanks.
Irish Hill is very hard to oppose here and afterwards his odds against price may look very generous if Stage Stars performance yesterday is anything to go by.. ( which of course it isn’t!)
Paul Nicholls has his string in great order and with two wins already under his belt, the last over a decent trip, Irish Hill has been set a very clear path as a hurlding juvenile. Nicholls says he is a stayer and that he has been gelded.
Graystone although running well behind in this world as you said was disappointing next time out. His subsequent win confirmed the form eventually, but with a penalty faces a very hard task. If ready and given the level of schooling and decent company he will be enjoying at Dicheat, Irish Hill looks very hard to beat here.
The Milton Harris horse, Escobedo looks a big price for each way interests and if any additional places are available then that would be one to take. I note that the trainer employs first time headgear and a Jockey with an allowance. Even though average, Girandole could also be running on at the end given the useful experience of a runout recently.
Of the penalised horses Brainstorm looks set to finish in the frame with Irish Hill a clear winner. (if fit and ready which I think he will be).
Irish Hill
Brainstorm
Graystone
Escobedo
Girandole

[Bachelors Hall]

Thank you Ian :)

I have been looking forward to seeing Kingston Hills on the track since he retired as he has all the right credentials. However, a sire can only do so much if he’s not getting the right mares and that his fee has been cut again down to €2,000 could be ominous. I remember thinking quite a bit of Jeremy as a jumps sire when he started getting good juveniles and unfortunately, the industry didn’t clock on until it was too late. Hopefully, Kingston Hill will get a better crack and while he’s now off the mark in France and Ireland, he’s needs good horses to advertise his credentials and Irish Hill might be a pivotal horse in his career at stud.

Hi GSP

Don’t they always say that it’s not who finishes ahead of you but who finishes behind? Future classic horses mixing it with future platers is one of the charms of two-year-old maidens and I suppose novice hurdles are not dissimilar for the same reasons.

Nice one Sam

Very much appreciate your thoughts and can’t see anything I disagree with. Irish Hill going out to 2/1 was silly but is now the subject of sustained support which is either a sensible correction or indicative of local enthusiasm. When any horse flops like Graystone did at Huntingdon, I am always looking for a reason why. He was consistent on the flat though his one bad run came at Sandown which is right-handed like Huntingdon; although he won at Kempton and went close at Beverley so it might not be a direction thing. He didn’t get to the front at Huntingdon and may have been worried out by bigger/older horses over hurdles but I am reaching and fear I may be resigned to Huntingdon being “one of those things”. Escobedo isn’t rock solid but 22/1 is a big price and additional places would be appealing. Girandole’s Exeter race was grim but if nothing else, he has proven he can jump which gives him something over a few of his rivals. Brainstorm is a funny one. Fantastic pedigree and thought good enough by Macaire to run in the Prix Rush, but dropped into a claimer straight after Auteuil. Looked iffy even when winning at Fontainebleau and though he wasn’t unfancied in the Royal Junior (where he reportedly had a wind op) he ran without any enthusiasm for the game. Hopefully the tongue tie will help him get back on track because he has loads of potential but sometimes, when a horse is gone it’s gone.

Very intriguing race whatever happens.

[IanDavies]

“Strong prospects” basically means “the winner.”

No stopping BH, though tbh on this occasion I think the Gods were smiling down on one of their own as Graystone would surely have won by three lengths if it had stood up at the last.

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[Bachelors Hall]

That was my first take although seeing as Graystone was jumping well up to the final two flights, I get the impression he was coming to the end of his tether and could have tied up on the straight. Will have to look at the sectionals but he appeared to go quick enough on ground that looked a bit more testing than g-s(s).

Good call from Sam on Girandole outrunning his odds.

Edit to add;- I wasn’t in love with how Irish Hill jumped. Could be better with experience but might be one for fences?

[GSP]

After so much analysis (thanks BH and well done!), fascinating watching that playout.
I’ve looked at these type of races briefly before (no where near the detail of BH!), and interesting while there is usually some very short priced horses in there, you often see some very big price horses make the frame.

It can be a case of identifying one of these bigger priced runners and if they will give you a run.

The fall of Graystone ‘helped’ this today, but looking at the form of the second and third (25/1 & 80/1), you could not discount them completely.

[Bachelors Hall]

Most appreciated GSP. I can’t remember if my previews have highlighted many big priced placed ones… Forever William at 20/1 was one in the Finale although does an unbeaten Alan King one count?

In keeping with juveniles having flat form with Group One horses, Meritorious actually beat Bolshoi Ballet on his second start…

MUSSELBURGH – 1st JANUARY – PREVIEW
2021 kicks off with a Grey Bomber (named after the ill-fated juvenile of Denys Smith) qualifier at the very Musselburgh where the £30,000 final is due to be hosted in March. Typically over half a stone stronger than the standard race at the venue, it also serves as a step towards the Scottish Triumph Trial with five horses reaching the frame in both races since 2014 and last season’s winner, Fiveandtwenty, winning in both before finishing third in the Anniversary at Aintree. Furthermore, Project Bluebook and Nietzsche, first and third in 2017, would go on to finish fourth and third respectively in that season’s Fred Winter. Next year’s renewal looks up to scratch with two fairly useful winning hurdlers taking on a pair of intriguing recruits, with a couple of Iain Jardine’s representing the Scottish contingent. A sharp and almost flat left-handed track, Musselburgh’s average winning DIs of 1.26 median, 1.41 mean are on the higher side of standard and its clear round rate of 96.27% is close to average. Odds-on favourites have a decent strike rate of 70.97%, the median winning SP of 2/1`is the fifth lowest in Britain. Newcomers have a somewhat lower chance against experienced rivals than at other venues, but their clear round rate 96.88% is actually higher than the average; one of a handful of racecourses where this is the case. All of this combines to indicate that Musselburgh is one of the most straightforward racecourses around. In this particular contest, of which there have been eight runnings, newcomers have a strike rate of 20% with an impact value 1.38 while previous winners have similar figures of 21.43% and 1.47 respectively. Previous course experience is not a particularly telling factor although winning form at Musselburgh is a positive with with such horses having a 28.26% strike rate. Furthermore, five previous course winners have taken in this contest with all of them reaching the frame and two of them passing the post in front. Despite the small field, most of these horses have either led or raced prominently so a strong pace looks likely. The going is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, with breezes and light rain anticipated in the interim.

Collingham bg Donald McCain f13-3-4 (33,0-72.6) 82 j2-1-1 (123) 118 121
Samum (Mull of Kintyre){6-d}(0.78) 0.5 Chez Hans 1st 2m2½f Handicap Hurdle (131), Newton Abbot 2021
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/collingham
Juvenile hurdlers bought out of French flat claimers have solid winner to runner rate of 22.81% which increases to 32% when the horse won its claimer. Adagio and Noble Request are two notable examples, although few will develop into much above average. Nevertheless, Donald McCain’s first juvenile to come out of a French claimer, Collingham, has made a promising start to his hurdling career. Initially with Christian von der Recke, Collingham first racecourse appearance came in a Compiegne claimer last October where he won by three lengths, and was claimed afterwards for €30,009 to join Fabrice Vermeulen. Runner-up on his remaining three outings at two, he began 2021 with a valeur of 39 (85.8 BHA) but his poor runs outnumbered his good and that mark would drop six kilos in the run-up to July. That month saw him dropped into a modest Aix-les-Bains claimer over 2500m on soft ground. Held up in midfield, he was outpaced on the turn for home but though he made a meal of going through the gears, he was able to hit the front 100m out and regain the winning thread by a length. His final start in France came in a slightly better claimer at Clairefontaine in similar conditions. Here, he found it easier to stay in contention and after getting to the lead 300m out, would run on strongly to win by two and a half lengths. Changing hands for €17,800, he embarked on a British hurdling career which was certainly feasible on breeding. Samum has a solid record with juveniles in Britain and France while the dam has already produced two winning jumpers in Chandos Belle and Chez Harris; the former incidentally taking the Von Der Recke, French claiming route to the division, but failing to win for Paul Nicholls before eventually becoming quite useful. Collingham made his hurdling debut at Musselburgh in early November and was well supported in the ring getting backed into 8/11 from an opening 6/5. Initially prominent in a decently run race, he was restrained during the back stretch and began the home straight with a couple of lengths to find. He jumped two out with a share of the lead but as at Aix-les-Bains, he was not immediate in quickening. Nevertheless, the penny did drop after the last and he pulled ahead towards the line for a five length win. His jumping was a little untidy at times but few of his errors cost him any real momentum. The form was respectable without being much better than average, and a sterner examination was given back at the venue some four weeks ago. He was sent off a steady 3/1 behind the odds-on Skycutter who was soon in a very clear lead. Collingham led the pursuit and though there was still well over a dozen lengths between the two entering the straight, that gap had been reduced to a length by the furlong pole. However, the effort to close the gap, where he completed the penultimate furlong over a second quicker than the winner, proved telling with the pair finishing almost a distance clear of the remainder. Skycutter did not advertise the form in the Finale although he enjoyed nothing like the gift he received here. During his two outings, Collingham has already come close to his flat best and is due credit for his latest performance where his hurdling was also much tidier. This is a tight contest but he just about brings the best hurdles form which and it being achieved at this venue is a solid positive. Furthermore, Donald McCain, who is in good form at the moment, also has a strong record at Musselburgh with last year’s winner Fiveandtwenty contributing to a 29.63% strike rate.

Inca Prince bg Ruth Jefferson bg f6-1-0 (84) 87 j4-1-2 (120) 112 119
Fast Company (Hawk Wing){5-g}(1.00) 3/1 Definate Spectacle 2nd Tipperary Hurdle (G2), Tipperary 2007
Starting career with Henry de Bromhead, Inca Prince made a winning debut at Dundalk last September and left the yard with a rating of 86 after finishing sixth in a listed race there in early March. However, his three flat outings for new trainer Cormac Farrell (hitherto winless in juvenile hurdles) resulted in him standing on himself in the stalls, refusing to race and finishing detached. Though he was running beyond a mile for the first time and was sent off a 125/1 outsider for his hurdles bow at Listowel in September, there was cause for optimism in the pedigree. Fast Company had a strong winner to runner rate of 34.78% with juveniles going into the race while the useful Definate Spectacle appears at 3/1 on the damline. Held up in the rear, Inca Prince took a keen hold during the early stages and was not especially fluent over the second or third. Nevertheless, he jumped and settled better going onto the second circuit and made steady headway before turning for home in the leading pack. He made mistakes over the last two which cost him momentum, but was able to win the battle for fifth on the run-in. Inca Prince completely outran his odds and though he is still some way off his earlier flat form, this was a definite step in the right direction. Sporting a first time hood, he continued his progression in a Gowran Park maiden a fortnight later. He was steady in the ring at 8/1, but unsteady in the race itself; immediately pulling himself to the front from a midfield position while doing his best to pull out Adam Short’s arms. Though decent enough over the second and third, his hurdling was also wayward despite getting a lead along the back where he was especially close to the fourth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was still travelling well when jumping the penultimate flight with a narrow lead, and comfortably extended that gap to three lengths before meeting the last on completely the wrong stride. He was immediately headed on landing and would be relegated to third on the run-in. Apart from the fifth winning next time, the subsequent form has been disappointing. The same can not be said of Inca Prince’s third start where he ran into two subsequent pattern winners at Down Royal at the end of October. Though still keen for much of the race, his rider did manage to restrain him in the rear and his jumping was much better as a result. Winner Fil Dor was in a class and race of his own, but Inca Prince did finish within a length of Sea Sessions who would land a listed fillies’ race at Aintree next time. A move to Ruth Jefferson followed with his British debut coming in a fairly average contest at Catterick eighteen days ago. Starting the solid 85/40 favourite, he went straight into the lead and though still conspicuously keen, at least appeared to travel better up front. Inca Prince was in a clear lead going along the back at which point the field was well strung out. Nothing else looked like landing a blow prior and kept up to his work, he passed the post upwards of six lengths clear of the rest. The pace he set was a sensible one rather than one which would burn off average horses, but while the runner-up ran completely flat next time at Wetherby, the third did score in the same contest. The yard has had few juveniles or runners at Musselburgh to date, but it did have a winner at Kelso on Wednesday. Inca Prince’s form is not far off Collingham’s and he is entitled to respect, although he will still want to settle better and he probably won’t get another uncontested lead here.

Individualiste rog Paul Nicholls f3-0-2 (32.0/70.4)
Cima de Triomphe (Slickly){4-m}(0.66) 2/2 Hollywood Park 1st 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/individualiste
Ludovic Gadbin has supplied four winners from seven to the sphere, although all four of those who won did so with David Pipe. The latest to make his way to the West Country is Individualiste who joins Paul Nicholls after fetching €56,000 at the Arqana Summer Sale. Though the most expensive of Gadbin’s exported juveniles, he is among the lowest rated insofar as valeurs are concerned with this thrice raced maiden arriving at Ditcheat with an equivalent rating of 70.4. Looking very much in need of the experience when finishing fourth on his debut at Nantes in April, Individualiste went one better next time in a minor contest at Nort sur Erdre. Nevertheless, he was still beaten by nearly twelve lengths and would only finish a few lengths closer when filling the same position on his latest outing at Chateaubriant at the end of May. Racing over 2,650 metres, he was difficult to settle at times but while still conspicuously green under pressure, he at least saw out the distance well enough. The second and the fifth both won next time, although based on the ratings of those who surrounded Individualiste, the aforementioned valeur does not appear to underestimate him. Indeeed, the winner at Chateaubriant has since joined the British juvenile hurdling ranks where he has achieved the sum total of nothing in three starts. Cima de Triomphe has yet to have a juvenile hurdler in Britain or Ireland, but four of his twelve progeny have won minor races in France as three-year-olds. From the family of Mondialiste, Intello and, further back, Dubai Millennium, Individualiste has no notable jumps relatives although two of his cousins won minor contests over hurdles as youngsters. Any horse running for Paul Nicholls warrants attention, and three of the six juveniles to have ran at Musselburgh were winners. However, the sole debutant was a disappointment and while it is a long journey from Ditcheat to just south of Edinburgh, he will be in the company of three stablemates so the benefit of the endeavour will not rest on his shoulders. Individualiste, for all that he was patently unpolished when last seen, does not fit the profile of an obvious star in the making and while he can make an interesting recruit, there are others with more substantial profiles.

Meritorious bg John McConnell f6-1-2 (83) 86
Make Believe (Teofilo){3-c}(0.45) 2/1 Eminent Poet 1st 2m7½f Handicap Hurdle (135), Sandown 2018
Following a lacklustre Newmarket debut for John Gosden last July, Meritorious ran much better at the venue three months later where he finished second; just ahead of a green, future Grade 1 winner in Bolshoi Ballet. Disappointing again next time at Newcastle, he was gelded over the winter and though he showed nothing like his Newmarket form, returned with fair midfield finishes in ten furlong novice stakes at Leicester and Nottingham. Meritorious was last seen back at HQ when making his handicap debut in a soft ground, twelve furlong handicap off 80 where he started the 11/4 second favourite. An inability to settle had characterised his races to date and it was no different here as it took Frankie Dettori a few furlongs to get his mount into a rhythm. Tucked in behind the leaders, Meritorious was angled out to make his challenge half a mile out and was disputing the lead by the three pole. He hung markedly to his right under pressure at the distance but ran on well up the hill to win by a length and a tail. The subsequent form is sparse and not well advertised by those who have been out since, but it would still rank as the strongest available from the flat in this contest. Withdrawn from the July sale, he was offered at the Autumn Horses-in-Training where he was knocked down to Irish handler John McConnell. A trainer with a good winner to runner rate of 26.47%, his three stabs at this particular contest has resulted in Hannon winning in 2019, and Never Do Nothing landing the spoils a year later. This year’s renewal does look stronger than either of those runnings and the yard is not in the strongest form at the moment with only one winner from twenty in the past fortnight, and forty-one runs passing since he last scored over jumps. His first time strike rate of 6.45% is below average and his juveniles generally improve from their debut outings. Notwithstanding, the pedigree of Meritorious is considerably more encouraging. Sire Make Believe has three winners from nine in the sphere to date and the dam is a half-sister to the useful Eminent Poet along with Orzare and Gabier who each won as juveniles. Meritorious is also a cousin of three further winning hurdlers, all of whom scored at either three or four years old. Any association with John Gosden would generally be a positive, but this does not ring true with his former inmates who go juvenile hurdling. The 15.31% winner to runner rate is fair at best at the 20.97% improvement rate is well below-average; although it can be noted that the promising Punchestown winner Pied Piper could be a possible trend breaker. Overall, there is plenty to like about the profile of Meritorious and it would be no surprise to see him emerge as a useful recruit. However, this is a decent contest for the venue and there are a couple of factors that temper enthusiasm.

Push For Sixty blg Iain Jardine f1-0-0 (-) 14 j1-0-0 (-) 36 39
Sixties Icon (Verglas){9-b}(0.71) 1/0 Push Me 1st 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (91), Perth 2014
Iain Jardine is doubly represented as he flies the saltire in the Hogmaneigh card’s opener. The Carrutherstown handler has had a winning juvenile at Musselburgh, but this is alongside fourteen losers and his three runners in this contest have each failed to place. Push For Sixty never left the rear and beat just one home on his sole flat outing when twenty-eight lengths behind the winner in a Ripon maiden back in July. Three months later, he made his hurdling debut at this venue in Collingham’s race. His dam won a handicap hurdler and Sixties Icon can do well in the sphere during the summer, but his 66/1 starting price was not a generous reflection of his prospects. Taking a keen hold in the rear, Push For Sixty did not jump with fluency and though just about in touch leaving the back, he would only get detached from thereon and was the tailed off last to complete.

Oot Ma Way bf Iain Jardine f12-2-2 (52) 57 j2-0-0 (-) 89 99
Power (Giant’s Causeway){22-d}(1.00) 2/1 Monotype 1st 2m Rated Hurdle, Wexford 2018
Stablemate Oot Ma Way achieved little in two outings for Katie Scott last Autumn before switching to Iain Jardine during the winter. She did little at Newcastle on her return but in nine outings between June and November, she developed into a largely consistent sort at a modest level. A keen going sort, cheekpieces were applied in late August and a drop town to ten furlongs the following month saw her finally get off the mark in a Newcastle handicap off 46. Raised three pounds for this success, she followed up at Wolverhampton with a brave performance before finishing midfield off 53 on her last flat appearance. A switch to hurdling was next on the agenda and it is a pastime for which she is feasibly bread. Power has a 33.33% winner to runner rate in the sphere and an impressive 88.89% of his progeny have improved for the switch in codes. Uncle Monotype has shown respectable form over hurdles while good youngsters Gibralfaro and Brave Dancing appear on the damline at 3/2. Her introduction came in an introductory hurdle at Newcastle on Fighting Fifth day. Having a couple of stones to find on flat form, she started the race as 50/1 outsider. Dashing through the snow, her keen nature saw her pull herself into a clear lead which was greatly reduced when she was very slow at the third. Headed when jumping three out, her retreat was not a hasty one but she was tired by the time they reached the last and she faded to finish eleven lengths behind the winner. It was a satisfactory debut outing and apart from her being slow at the third and tired at the last, she jumped respectably overall. Oot Ma Way was out a week later iat Musselburgh where she was again unfancied at 40/1. While keen early, she did settle on reaching the back and apart from getting three out completely wrong, put in another sound hurdling exhibition. However, she never had pretentions of reaching the leader or following Colllingham and was beaten much further than she had been at Newcastle. With a fair rating, there is a future over hurdles for Oot Ma Way, although it will probably begin sometime after New Year’s Day.

tl;dr
Collingham – Useful claimer on flat and bred to make a hurdler. Not blessed with strong turn of foot but ultimately comfortable winner of hurdling debut at venue and ran better than result when second here early this month. Sets standard on jumps form and course form a plus. Yard won this race last year.

Inca Prince – Promising flat career ended with whimper but has been rejuvenated by hurdles. Unlucky not to win at Gowran on second start and Irish form was enough for him to make all and run out emphatic winner at Catterick. Needs to settle better and may not get own way up front but worthy of respect.

Individualiste – Cost €56,000 at Arqana but price doesn’t match his three flat efforts in France. Patently unfurnished when last seen and entitled to respect representing top yard but others have more going for them.

Meritorious – Highest rated flat horse in the field and is related to numerous young jumpers. Irish trainer is two from three in this particular contest but not in strongest form and ex-Gosden horses rarely carry their form in juvenile hurdles.

Push for Sixty – No show on sole flat outing and lacked fluency when well beaten on hurdles debut.

Oot Ma Way – Modest and headstrong but managed to win a couple during the Autumn. 50/1 when fifth of six in good race at Newcastle and run was not without promise. Jumped well but made little impact here early this month. Has future but probably outclassed here.

Strong prospects
1. Collingham
Reasonable prospects
2. Inca Prince
3. Meritorious
Feasible prospects
4. Individualiste
Moderate prospects
5. Oot Ma Way
Negligible prospects
6. Push For Sixty

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