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Thread of the year! Congratulations Batcherlors.
Great write up and much appreciated for tomorrow’s first at Kempton.
I have hit a brick wall form wise, and will be glad to get back to national hunt this weekend. My main bet today was Dundalk 6.30 a combination tricast. I got the first and second but didn’t do the forecast.
Regarding tomorrow’s juvenile hurdle race at Kempton, I am still reading through your preview and going over the racecards.
I agree with your top rating of KH. His last run was taking and there is plenty more to come. Others who have yet to jump a hurdle are rated above him in some quarters on breeding and flat form. I’m still race reading etc but KH is currently top of my list. Depending on what else I unearth will decide if I do a win bet or forecast or trifecta. Best regards.With Chepstow’s card looking likely to be given the go ahead, the juvenile division’s first Grade 1 of the season is finally upon us. Since 2005, the Finale Hurdle has produced two Triumph Hurdle winners in Defi du Seuil and Countrywide Flame, four runners-up in Kentucky Hyden, Walkon, Franchoek and Fair Along, and last season’s winner Allmankind would place third at the festival later in the campaign. We Have A Dream won Aintree’s Grade One in 2018, and other stars to emerge during this time period include Bristol de Mai, Reve de Sivola and Twist Magic. Earlier editions have been graced by the likes of Bilboa, Bradbury Star, Crystal Spirit, Jair du Cochet, Kadastrof, Mysilv, Mister Banjo, Oh So Risky and Royal Derbi. With the exception of Jair du Cochet who was something very special, it will have been speculative at the time to imagine that most of the aforementioned would achieve the heights that they did. Nevertheless, while this season’s edition looks a good quality affair, it does appear to be lacking somewhat. The best British form on offer comes from Adagio who was readily put in his place by Duffle Coat at Cheltenham, and the Irish crop looks decidedly stronger at this juncture. Nevertheless, with the exception of Monmiral and possibly the undefeated pair of Heross du Seuil and Good Ball who each ran recently, this is about as strong a field that could have been assembled at this stage of the season. With the Welsh National being one of the most gruelling races on the calendar, it is no surprise that Chepstow’s average winning DIs for juveniles of 0.83 median, 1.13 mean, are among the lowest in the country. With the winners of this race taken in isolation, those figures drop to 0.80 and 0.93 which makes the race quite exceptional. The going is currently forecast to be heavy and with freezing temperatures expected overnight, the moisture in the ground will not be evaporating. The clear round rate of 96.28% is broadly average, and the high odds-on strike rate and low median SP make it a reliable enough racecourse.
Triumph Hurdle
Nassalam 14/1
Adagio 20/1
Houx Gris 25/1
Elham Valley 50/1Adagio bg David Pipe f3-1-2 GAG 39.5 (87) 81 j3-2-1 (136) 122 127
Wiener Walzer (Hernando){9-e}(0.73) 3/3 Labaik 1st Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/adagio-1
Horses bought out of French flat Claimers have a fair winners to runners ratio of 21.43%, although when accounting for those costing upwards of €21,000, that rate increases to 50% with six of the twelve since 2008/09 finding success. That record has been bolstered this season due to the wins of Fergal O’Brien’s Volkovka, and David Pipe’s Adagio. Following two outings as a two-year-old, his first run for the Pavel Vovcenko stable saw him run out a convincing eight length winner of a twelve furlong Clairefontaine claimer under Christophe Soumillon. The form of that race has worked out fairly moderately, but such was his superiority, a rating in the early-mid eighties would be appropriate.Though he was publicly offered for sale after joining David Pipe for €25,555, he ended up with high profile owners of the yard and the relative of recently lost Labaik was a comfortable debutant winner at Warwick in early November. The form of that race is much of a muchness, but Adagio overcame some sloppy jumping to run out a convincing seven and a half length winner on ground that was probably firm enough. He was out eight days later in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham where he was a steady third in the market. Settling in midfield, he still lacked fluency on numerous occasions and though he moved into the lead turning for home, he would be passed at the furlong marker and was unable to quicken from there. Finishing five lengths behind Duffle Coat was an improved performance, and he continued that momentum on his return to the venue a month later. Apart from being slightly untidy at the first two, he put in a nice round of jumping on ground which would have been ideal. Held up near the rear, he was still in midfield turning for home before cruising into a prominent position at the distance and jumping into the lead over the last. From there, he ran on strongly, increasing his superiority to nearly five lengths on the line. Given his clear round and ground preference, he was able to run his best race to date. His official rating of 136 is behind only Nassalam whose British form does not yet have the same substance. The ground tomorrow will be the heaviest he has encountered outside of France, but while his pedigree is not inundated with plodders, it is stout enough to suggest he can handle the conditions. Especially given that his Clairefontaine win came on heavy ground. David Pipe has not had a runner in this race since outsider Sinndar’s Man in 2014, but Adagio is one of his strongest candidates he has had in a while and with the yard in a good spell of form, Adagio’s prospects are very tangible.Bannister bg Tom George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j5-1-2 (132) 114 124
Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) 0.5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bannister-1
Starting his hurdling career earlier than most, Bannister ran with some credit at Stratford and Market Rasen in the summer before scoring at Southwell when left well clear in an attritional contest in early September. Since then, he competed in a pair of contests in France, finishing second at Compiegne and fifth at Auteuil when last seen in October. On both instances, he ran keenly and quickly established a clear lead. At Compiegne, he began to tire leaving the back, but while he was headed inside the final furlong, he still battled back bravely and was held by only a neck. The first three pulled well clear and winner Martator capped his campaign with a three length third in a course and distance Groupe III. Bannister’s performance at Auteuil saw him employ similar tactics and though he steadied at the third and tenth while trailing his hind legs through the fourth, he jumped the remaining eight flights very neatly. Caught at the final flight, he was a spent force and weakened quickly, losing fourth at the line and beaten eight lengths. The winner has not been seen since, the runner-up competed in a pair of listed races before winning a Cagnes-Sur-Mer Chase, and the third and fourth have valeurs of 58 and 57 respectively. Though measuring this performance is not an exact science, a rating in the mid 120s looks appropriate. Bannister brings decent hurdling form to this contest and is a very good hurdler at best. However, the yard is not in good form at the moment and the eighty-four day absence might exacerbate his habitual keenness.Elham Valley grg Fergal O’Brien f9-2-0 (74) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 116 116
Tin Horse (Peintre Celebre){1-p}(1.33) 2/2 Gardens Of Babylon 3rd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2019
A dual winner on the flat for Andrew Balding, Elham Valley left Kingsclere after winning a seller at Goodwood by thirteen lengths. Though he did not attract any bids afterwards, he still changed ownership and would run twice run for John Gallagher, finishing well held in a pair of soft ground handicaps off 78 and 75. Following a date with a pair of scissors, he joined a Fergal O’Brien yard which has enjoyed a fine season with its juveniles, including winners Naizagai and Volkovka. Though his hurdles debut came in a Sandown contest featuring the highly touted but disappointing Paros, was the subject of sustained support throughout the day, moving from 14/1 in the morning to 11/2 at the off. He was not the most fluent or natural of jumpers as he was big and slow to get away from the first, reached at the third, was slow over the next and met the last wrong, costing him momentum in the process. Fortunately for him, the runner-up was also untidy and he was able to build an advantage on the run-in before being eased close home. It was not a bad performance and he should be able to improve with tidier jumping. Furthermore, runner-up Hudson de Grugy paid the form a compliment when winning at the venue last week. However, this was his tenth run under rules which gives him less scope than most of his rivals.Houx Gris grg Paul Nicholls b2-1-1 h2-1-1 (-) 110 ?
Gris de Gris (Network){u}(0.33) 3/1 Franco 3rd Prix Robert de Clermont-Tonnerre (G3), Auteuil 1999
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/houx-gris
The bulk of Paul Nicholls’ most succesful imports are typically acquired through private transactions, although he will still get horses who pass through the Arqana ring. The most pricey of these was 2016 Adonis Hurdle winner Zubayr at €380,000, while the useful Ptit Zig cost €100,000, and the exciting Sanctuaire was a relative snip at €80,000. Some did prove to be expensive however as Monsiuer Co (€155,000) won just the first of his six races for the yard, Marc Aurele (€180,000) left the yard with a rating of 116, and Al Amaan (€140,000) managed only a third in a Plumpton maiden. Costing €200,000 at the Arqana Deauville Autumn sale, Houx Gris carries hefty expectations. Nevertheless, his four runs for Sylvain Dehez are not without potential. After winning on his racecourse bow in a Cluny AQPS bumper in late June, he was denied by a length and a quarter at Vichy on the first of August while conceding eight kilos. His jumps debut came in an AQPS contest for hurdling debutants where he started at 9/1. Very keen early on, he was bustled on numerous occasions and made errors over the majority of the hurdles. He had settled behind the leaders but lost his position along the back straight, and while he eventually finished third, he was twenty-one lengths behind the winner. A direct form line leaves him behind Oliver Greenall’s Herbiers, who was second at Musselburgh last week, but he was successful next time at the same venue in an ordinary conditions event. Though he made a few untidy jumps, it was a much better round than on his debut and after progressing from midfield, he moved into the lead approaching the last from where he battled well despite a high head carriage. The runner-up Homme Public has since joined Oliver Greenall, while the horse who was nearly nine lengths back in fourth has subsequently improved to finish third in a listed race ahead of winning a Pau steeplechase by seven lengths. A precise measure of Houx Gris’ accomplishments is difficult to reach given that most of the opposition are unexposed and lightly raced. Nevertheless, the form likely exceeds the RPR of 116 by a good ten pounds. Paul Nicholls has won this twice from seventeen runners, although those two wins came from his last three charges in the contest with Dolos’ third splitting the wins of Adrien Du Pont and Quel Destin. He has also introduced four French hurdles recruits in this contest, three of whom, namely Tatabeb, Sang Bleu and Caid Du Berlais, finished second. Gris de Gris has one winner from five in the division, but his record in France is much stronger and along with being a full-brother to a winning French juvenile, the third dam produced four winning jumpers in Declic, Impact, Azure and most notably, the graded class Franco. Houx Gris is something of an unknown quantity, but he ticks most boxes and is the representative of a strong trainer.Mr Shady grg J S Moore f18-1-5 (63) 72 j2-0-1 (117) 111 117
Elzaam (Definite Article){4-i}(2.00) 3/1 Fontaine Fables 1st Novice Hurdle, Fairyhouse 1996
A veteran of twenty races to date, Mr Shady was able to collect a Lingfield handicap on the flat and his rating of 63 in that sphere is justified. He made an encouraging hurdles debut when fourth of eleven at Ludlow in November and while he started at 80/1 and was still beaten by nearly twenty lengths, the performance broadly matched his flat form. He made errors at half of his jumps, but his trainer’s juveniles are not known to fall and he put up a better round next time at Wetherby. Keen in the early stages, he was in the front line throughout the race and after going through the top of the first, he hurdled very well before flattening the first in the straight. He made a blunder at the penultimate flight and was not especially tidy at the last either, but he only lost the lead at the half-furlong marker and still kept on to the line. Despite his vast racing experience, this performance marked a new career best for Mr Shady due to his good hurdling during the bulk of the race. Though he is a tough and consistent sort, he has not shown enough ability to be seriously competitive in this type of contest. Furthermore, Stan Moore’s four runners in this contest have failed to reach a better position than Foleys Quest’s fifth of six in 1997.Nassalam chg Gary Moore j3-2-1 (140) 140 126
Dream Well (Shirocco){14-b}(0.80) 0.5 Msassa 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2018
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/nassalam
The shortest priced British trained horse in the Triumph Hurdle markets, Nassalam found himself in that position by virtue of two demolition jobs at Fontwell in November and December. To suggest that he beat trees on those two outings does a disservice to the speed of some species as the Moluccan albizia has been documented reaching nearly eleven meters in just over a year. Perhaps the most reliable measure of his ability came on his French debut in a newcomers race at Clairefontaine in the end of June. The winner subsequently took a chase at Fontainebleau in October and another one at Auteuil in December. He is currently rated 143 while the horse who finished third is on 132, although that is a falling mark. Fourth placed Mistersister, who was less than two lengths behind, joined Charlie Mann after winning a Le Lion d’Angers claimer, but was pulled up on his British debut in the Summit Hurdle. Nassalam got big at a couple of the early flights at Clairefontaine and it was the same case on his UK debut at Fontwell. However, he became more fluent as the race progressed and while he was not foot perfect over the last, caution was the prevailing sentiment as his win was under no equine threat. The former inmate of Guillaume Macaire could not have won his race any easier having cruised into the lead turning for home before extending his advantage without being asked to accelerate. Though the runner-up had won in France, he disappointed again at Market Rasen and that is the only real measure for his UK form. He did win the race in a relatively good time, and followed up in an even weaker contest last month. Setting the pace throughout, he jumped left at every flight but was a bit neater than on his debut. He effortlessly drew clear to win by forty-nine lengths although the ineffectiveness of his opposition can not be understated. From a time performance on the ground and an assessment of the sectionals, he performed no better here than on his debut. Nassalam is clearly a useful horse but his latent superiority entitled him to win as he did and his further contraction in the Triumph markets was not justifiable on the basis of this outing alone. Gary Moore has yet to win this contest in ten attempts, with Sussex Ranger coming closest when second in 2018. Nevertheless, the yard has been among the winners recently and Nassalam is very much fits the “could be anything” trope. His overall form profile lacks discernible substance, but it will be exciting to see what he can produce in this company.Pyramid Place bg Milton Harris f4-0-0 (69) 66 j2-1-1 (104) 97 107
Authorized (Zafonic){20-a}(0.81) 0.5 Jukebox Blues 9th Novices’ Hurdle, Kelso 2020
Pyramid Place did not reach the frame in four starts for John Gosden during the winter, but he was a consistent animal who ran to a fair level and subsequently sold for 27,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale. Horses who leave the Gosden yard rarely do well in juvenile hurdles, but with seven months to physically develop, he made a fine start in his new vocation at Lingfield. Keen early and held up in the rear, he had a tendency to jump to his left and like the winner, was none too fluent in the straight. He made slow and steady headway along the back and got to within five lengths of the winner at the last. He did not get away from it quickly and took time to find his stride on the run-in. Ultimately, he only failed by a short head, but given his freshness and lack of fitness or experience, he was entitled to improve and he made good on his promise when winning at Bangor in November. While he started the day at 2/5, he drifted out to 11/10 before starting at evens. He actually drifted out to 8.4 in-running although he never looked beaten at any stage. Tucked in behind the leaders in a slowly run contest, Pyramid Place took a bit of a hold, but it was still less pronounced than it was on his debut. He was always travelling comfortably enough and his jumping was also better than first time out with the only flaws being that he was slightly skewed over the third, fourth and at three out. He did not show an explosive turn of foot to take the lead between the final two flights, but he had a clear advantage by the last and stayed on strongly to the line. He did not have to improve from his debut to win last time, and from a form perspective, this effort leaves him with a lot to find here. Milton Harris saddled Mondul to finish second in the 2003 renewal of this contest, but his only other runner was well beaten at 100/1 in 2011.Yggdrasil bg Nick Williams j1-0-1 (-) 107 109
Kapgarde (Le Balafre){4-m}(1.67) 0.5 Siruh du Lac 1st Mildmay of Fleet (G3,141), Cheltenham 2019
Named after the home of Ratatoskr, Norse Mythology’s only interesting character, Yggdrasil made his racecourse debut at Sandown early last month. Keen early on, he did not attack the initial jumps with any real conviction and got especially close to the fourth. His jumping was tidier from there and he was still in contention at the distance. However, his inexperience became conspicuous as he steadied into the penultimate flight and did not know what to make of Elham Valley squeezing past him. Though readily outpaced by the front pair, he still plugged on to win the battle for third. A Kapgarde half-brother to Siruh du Lac, Acta Est Fabula and Txamanxoia, out of a dual chase winner and closely related to 1995 Grand Course de Haies d’Auteuil winner Matchou, Yggdrasil is bred to be a viable prospect in both the short and long term. He was one of two entries for the Williamses in the original iteration of this contest, with stablemate Honneur d’Ajonc (33/1, generally 25/1 for the Triumph) coming close to winning the alternative engagement when falling at the last at Kempton. Nick Williams has won this race twice from eight runners, with Me Voici winning in 2009, and Le Rocher scoring in 2013. He has also sent talented horses to run into third including Coo Star Sivola, and Reve de Sivola. Yggdrasil will still need to find improvement from his debut outing, but he ran with plenty of promise and has considerable scope for a yard that should not be underestimated in this contest.Strong prospects
1. Yggdrasil
Reasonable prospects
2. Adagio
3. Nassalam
4. Houx Gris
Feasible prospects
5. Bannister
Moderate prospects
6. Elham Valley
Negligible prospects
7. Mr Shady
8. Pyramid PlaceI’ve gone for a small each way double of Kentucky Hardboot and Yggdrasil. Which three rise to the top at chepstow is a real poser given the differing routes to the race, lines of breeding, bare form and stable form and race trends. But the double is my first step.
Cheers Alexander and indeed, good luck to Sam :D
The close calls are usually the ones that sting the most from what I recall of my (mostly abysmal) punting days!
Kentucky Hardboot now 15/8 having opened at 5s last night so hopefully you were able to catch some of the value. There is a touch of playfulness in Yggdrasil as I think any of the reasonable prospects could have been given strong prospects (as indeed could Yggdrasil). In this regard, I agree entirely that any of those four filling the first three would come as no surprise whatsoever. Given that none of the ex-French horses had bombproof arguments, Yggdrasil had enough on balance to be given the nod as he is the (almost) guaranteed improver with plenty to like about his profile.
As always, I won’t be having any money on these or any other races. But I will be keeping an especially close eye on those two.
A brilliant day of racing.
Thank you for the write up.
Crassus is in my tracker for the reappearance run.Rather than confront the fact that my affection for Ratatoskr completely ballsed up the Finale tricast, I decided to look to the future and go through the horses currently listed in the Triumph markets who have not yet seen a hurdle in public outside of France. Some of these have been assessed earlier in the thread, but for the benefit of those who do not want to go trawling through over 300,000 words of variable quality, I have reposted the profiles with relevant updates.
20/1 Baron Samedi bg Joseph Patrick O’Brien f10-5-0 (112) 108
Harbour Watch (Haafhd){1-l}(3.00) 3/1 Creekside 2nd Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (123), Ascot 2012
Already written
Since sacrificing his testicles in August for the greater good, Baron Samedi has improved beyond recognition and he recently completed a four-timer at Listowel off a mark thirty-two pounds higher than when when he began his winning sequence. The owners are yet to have a jumps runner and there has been no word that juvenile hurdling is on the radar for the time being. Should connections opt to go down that route then Baron Samedi’s pedigree is a reasonable one as a third of his sire’s juveniles have been winners, and while Haafhd has yet to have a winner as a damsire, he was useful in the division with his own progeny.
Update
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/baron-samedi
Since this earlier piece, Baron Samedi won the Group 2 Prix du Conseil de Paris at Longchamp in late October. Run over eleven furlongs on heavy ground, he took up the running at the distance, and battled very gamely to prevail by a head from Mare Australis. The form has not been tested subsequently and it was probably not the strongest Group 2. Nevertheless, the runner-up had taken a listed race on his previous outing, the third was a progressive handicapper and the fourth had filled the same position in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet and was third in the Prix Dollar on her previous outing. Harbour Watch has added another winning juvenile in Overpriced Mixer, although his other four have achieved little. There has still been no word on any imminent hurdling career and he is only quoted by two firms.25/1 Dawn Rising bg Joseph Patrick O’Brien f4-1-1 (-) 107
Galileo (Danehill Dancer){4-k}(0.76) 1/1 Triplicate 2nd Royal Bond Novices Hurde (G1), Fairyhouse 2018
Already written
While there has been no official word on this horse, he was recently treated to a gelding operation as well as entering most of the Triumph lists. Should he make the transition then he would make a most intriguing addition to the division. Along with being related to classic winners Sovereign, West Wind and Balanchine, he is also a full brother to Royal Bond runner up Triplicate and other good jumpers on his damline include Starchitect (2/3), Rio De Janeiro (2/1), Vandas Choice (3/1) and Butler’s Cabin (5/4). Finishing last on his debut in the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes last October, Dawn Rising broke his maiden this June at Limerick by twelve lengths from a horse who would win a handicap off 75 next time out. Allowed to travel to Newmarket for the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy, the sweaty Dawn Rising won one battle up the straight against subsequent German Oaks winner Miss Yoda but was a spent force when headed just outside the furlong marker. The winner disappointed next time in the Gordon Stakes but it is still genuine group level form. Galileo is more than capable of siring juvenile hurdlers although his best (Royal Irish Hussar, Bally Glasheen, Outspoken) have been just shy of top class and has a better record as a damsire (Pentland Hills, Hargam, Sir Erec) and similar sentiments can apply to Danehill Dancer who is again an above average damsire without getting top class juveniles through his mares. Dawn Rising would not be the first pattern class horse off the flat to run for Joseph O’Brien in juvenile hurdles and both Landofhopeandglory and Sir Erec achieved success in the sphere. However, there were another three who were also officially rated above 100 who failed to win during their first seasons over hurdles (Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter, Tree Of Knowledge) although Ivanovich Gorbatov can also be included if one counts those trained in his father’s name. Overall, while Dawn Rising’s profile does not make him a guaranteed success in the division, he certainly has the potential to cause problems for any horse this season.
Update
Dawn Rising has not been out since finishing second at Newmarket in July. While he appears on fourteen books and was shortened by a few firms over christmas, there has still been no public word, he has not appeared in the stable tours, and is still registered with Aiden O’Brien.33/1 Berkshire Rocco chc A Balding 9-2-4 (116) 117
Sir Percy (Shirocco) {1-c}(0.18) 4/2 Bulwark 7th Pertemps Hurdle (127), Haydock 2009
Already written
A rating of 108 was earned after his finishing second in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. If he runs over juvenile hurdles, only three horses (Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter and Sir Erec – all for Joseph O’Brien) will have brought higher flat rating to the sphere since 2012. While sixty-three horses have gone hurdling after starting with Andrew Balding, some are also sold to race abroad and I have yet to see anything that suggests Berkshire Rocco is being prepped for a hurdles career. That said, if anybody knows otherwise then please let us know.
Update
Berkshire Rocco has since finished fourth in the Great Voltigeur, second in the St Leger, and first in the listed Noel Murless Stakes at Ascot. He has not been sold, he has not been gelded and he is still with Andrew Balding.33/1 Haut En Couleurs bg W P Mullins j1-1-0 (-) 126
Saint Des Saints (Muhtathir){8-c}(0.60) 1/0 Sanouva 1st Prix Congress (G2), Auteuil 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/haut-en-couleurs
The Prix Pride Of Kildare is a race for hurdling debutants held at Auteuil in early October. Popular chaser Exotic Dancer would be the race’s most notorious winner back in 2003. Since then, the winners of the contest have not had a great deal to shout about, with 2012 winner Laristo perhaps faring best when second in the Prix Cambaceres. Given its position on the calender, it is not a prolific source of juvenile hurdlers with Sang Bleu being the only winner to race in the UK when joining Paul Nicholls in 2009. Four other runners have subsequently crossed the channel during the same season, but none since Le Fin Bois in 2013. Other winners did eventually make their way to the UK and Ireland later in their careers, but did not find much success. Breaking the mould in this peculiar year is the latest winner Haut En Couleurs who won the latest renewal by a head. Slightly hampered at the first, wasn’t always tidy in what was a messy race and and he had to be ridden into a few. Nevertheless, he was also neat at a few other the others and though he hung left, he got the best of a protracted battle to the line where the front two pulled fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. The runner-up was beaten in a chase at Pau just before Christmas, but the third placed Magic Dream won his next two starts, including the Grade Two Prix Congress steeplechase. Fourth placed Invite Special has shown fair form behind Houx Gris and finished third in a listed hurdle at Auteuil before winning a chase at Pau. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders has yet to send any winning juveniles to the UK or Ireland, and both Paros and Ronde De Nuit have been disappointing this term. Nevertheless, the Leenders family has been responsible for some good types over the years including Clarcam and Politologue. Willie Mullins needs no introduction but the pedigree of Haut en Couleurs is certainly noteworthy. By top stallion Saint des Saints, Haut En Couleurs is out of Prix Congress (a Grade Two for three-year-old Chasers) winner Sanouva who has already produced winning chaser Gentilhomme. Sanouva is a half-sister to two good juveniles in Nicknos, who won the Prix Wild Monarch, and Hippomene who won both of the Grade Ones available to horses in the age group. When something looks as good as this on paper, exercising scepticism is imperative. So the negatives are that the race he won is not prolific, it was ran over eighteen furlongs on heavy ground meaning he is unproven in a race that demands more speed, and he was rather green on his racecourse debut of all things. He could be bred to make a chaser but given the precocity of his damline, and the fact that Saint des Saints’ offspring are perfectly capable of performing while young, this might be a stretch. The only realistic concern is that he has only raced once and it is typically unwise to base a reputation around a solitary performance – even if the well beaten third has gone on to be a good horse. Nevertheless, Haut En Couleurs has joined a fine yard, he showed grit and class on his sole outing and his pedigree is exquisite. There is little more one could ask from a once raced prospect and he is a very exciting prospect for this season.33/1 Tritonic chc A King 9-2-3 (99) 106
Sea The Moon (Selkirk){4-r}(1.13) 4/3 Le Breuil 1st National Hunt Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2019
Already written
The second Alan King horse on this list, Tritonic would bring a high level of flat form based on his win in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark and finishing runner up in a Royal Ascot handicap. Sire Sea The Moon had a most promising first season as a jumps stallion earning a 43% winners to runners strike rate with 57% of his offspring recording RPRs above 107 including the Grade One winner and Triumph Hurdle third Allmankind. Selkirk’s record as a damsire is not quite as exciting although he did produce the Champion Hurdler Sublimity. Owned by the McNeill family, it is more likely than not that he will go hurdling and he would probably make an above average recruit to the game.
Update
Though the topic of some “will he, won’t he” speculation, the latest tweet from the owners said he will be trained for one of the better juveniles, and the latest stable tour said that he would be gelded then schooled in January after which he could make his debut in something like the Adonis. The gelding prophesy has been fulfilled, so it now looks to hinge on how he schools. There have been spots of movement and introduction in the Triumph lists so it can be assumed that nothing has been ruled out. On the racecourse, Tritonic has ran four times since Ascot, finishing second in a listed race at Hamilton, sixth in the Geoffrey Freer, second in a Yarmouth handicap off 99, and just under six lengths fourth in the Old Rowley Cup off the same mark. A consistent and capable horse, he seemed more straightforward on his latest start at Newmarket. If he appears this season, it is implied that he has schooled satisfactorily and should not go without attention.33/1 Tulin bg Paul Nicholls f2-1-0 (-) –
Gleneagles (Cape Cross){1-c}(0.87) 5/2 Bulwark 7th Pertemps Hurdle (127), Haydock 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/tulin
Twice raced for Alessandro & Giuseppe Botti, Tulin’s racecourse debut came with a green but staying on fifth at Le Touquet in the middle of June. Run on firm ground over 2700 metres, he finished more than nine and five lengths behind horses subsequently rated roughly 78 and 74. Tulin’s managed to score next time out a fortnight later in a 2400 metre maiden on good ground at Lignieres. Fairly green once again, he raced prominently behind the leader on the inside and spent the entirety of the straight attempting to gain ground before officially getting his head in front at the line in a five way photo. While clichés are usually boring and ill-applied, an obese horse’s blanket will have been sufficient to encapsulate the finishers. The current valeurs of the other four blanketmates range from 30 (66) to 34 (74.8) and the second and the second (seriously, watch the race) have each won €20,000 handicaps at Fontainebleau and Deauville. The quality of form for the division, but it would not warrant the prices currently on offer. While Cabot Cliffs has got first-season stallion Gleneagles off the mark, Cape Cross has just a 10% winners to runners ratio as a damsire and the distaff side of the pedigree is bereft of jumpers. Paul Nicholls has sourced plenty of recruits from French flat races, though most tend to be rated 80 or above and Tulin has probably not ran to that level. Tommy Silver and Volpone Jelois were probably of a similar standard and they both managed to win as juveniles. Nevertheless, while he has reportedly taken well to jumping, he looks a long way from a Triumph contender on available evidence.40/1 John Locke Dan Skelton f5-1-3 (85) 91
Mastercraftsman (Beat Hollow){8-h}(1.46) 2/1 Political Intrigue 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Ludlow 2006
Bred and owned by the Juddmonte operation, the ironically named John Locke had been gelded before seeing the racecourse. Withdrawn from the stalls ahead of his intended debut in June, he would finish second in a ten furlong Windsor novice stakes in mid July. He was then second at Lingfield on his next two outings, on the all-weather at the start of the month, and the turf towards the end of the month. Though he was developing a case of seconditis, he did not look discernibly recalcitrant and along with competing in races which worked out well, he was finishing clear of the third on each occasion. John Locke got off the mark at the fourth time of asking in a ten furlong novice stakes at Goodwood in September. Moving to the front approaching the distance, he quickly established a clear advantage and while his lead was being eroded, he was more idling than tiring and had enough in hand at the line. The runner-up won next time before finishing third off 85, the third went one place better at Chelmsford, and the third won his next two races. John Locke disappointed on his latest flat outing, with his rider suggesting that he was unsuited by the soft ground. Former inmates of Ralph Beckett’s have a solid winners to runners rate of 32.26%, with five of the six rated 80 or above winning during their juvenile campaigns. Passing through Tattersalls for 75,000 guineas, John Locke joins in Dan Skelton a trainer with a fine record in the division, and an overall strike rate of 30.23% with flat recruits rated 80 plus. Mastercraftsman is one of the most prolific and successful sires in the division, Beat Hollow has a winners to runners rate of 33.33% as a damsire, and the dam is a half-sister to three winning hurdlers. John Locke’s flat form is strong for the division and his profile is positive in most regards. He might not want the ground to be too soft, but he would be a very interesting recruit nevertheless.50/1 Bring On The Night bg W P Mullins f3-2-0 FrF (92.4)
Gleneagles (Dubai Destination){2-d}(0.52) 3/2 Schelem 1st 3yo Hurdle, Dax 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bring-on-the-night-1
Already written
Since the 2008/09 season, Andre Fabre has been the source of twenty-nine juvenile hurdlers in the UK and Ireland. Twelve of those won during their first season over obstacles but while half of them were rated at least 85 on the flat, that class largely fails to translate with Fred Winter placed duo Alexander Severus and Saticon the most successful of such types. Nevertheless, Willie Mullins has a good record with juvenile hurdlers recruited from the French flat. Twelve of the twenty during the time period have been winners including high class sorts Petitie Parisienne, Burning Victory, Diakali, Saldier and Saglawy. Bring On The Night had three runs on the flat and was successful on his latest two starts. His debut came in a Chantilly maiden in early March where he was slow from the start and finished a never nearer eighth of ten. He was better next time however when a clear winner from a strung out field in a twelve furlong Compiegne maiden later that month. The runner-up, his better fancied stablemate on the day, has not won in four subsequent outings but is currently rated 82.5. Two flat winners have come out of that race, albeit in minor races at Clairefontaine and Tours, as well as a winning steeplechaser. Bring On The Night followed up in late May on the all-weather in a Deauville conditions race over 2500 metres. This was a more hard fought success and he finished three-quarters of a length ahead of a horse currently rated 85.8. The second and third have since won small races at Toulouse and Le Touquet. Bring On The Night’s rating of 92.4 is rather difficult to justify but he has a good size to him along with a decent attitude. There are not many clues in his sirelines insofar as a hurdling career is concerned as his sire Gleneagles has yet to be tested, although Galileos can make decent sires in the sphere. Dubai Destination has only nine juveniles as a damsire but three of them have been winners including the useful Forth Bridge. The damlines are rather less encouraging however as apart from Schelem (3/2) winning a minor event at Dax, the few close relatives who have tried hurdling have achieved little.
Update
Very little to add. The second and third at Deauville are each rated 36 (79.2) while the better fancied stablemate at Compiegne has dropped a couple of pounds.50/1 Harmonie Star bf Wille Mullins b5-4-0
Boris de Deauville (East Of Heaven){u}(1.50) 2/1 Balki Win 1st 4yo Chase, Pontchateau 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/harmonie-star
Following a fifth at Vichy on her racecourse debut in May, Harmonie Star won her next four starts to become the leading AQPS bumper horse of the season by prizemoney. Gaining an accurate grasp of the form’s worth is not a straightforward undertaking as many of the leading horses in the sphere have taken turns beating each other, and there is little hurdling form to assess. Nevertheless, two of her successes came in Groupe IIIs including a dead heat with Holly and a six and a half length defeat of Hashtag Val – both of whom are not in the ownership of JP McManus. Showing a good and straightforward attitude, Harmonie Star has won on ground from good to very-soft, with all victories coming over twelve furlongs. Nicolas Paysan has yet to supply the sphere with any juvenile hurdlers, but Willie Mullins has a fine record with former French bumper horses including Ut De Sivola, Dandy Mag and this season’s Ha d’Or. Having already ran five times in bumpers, she would no longer be elegible for such races in Ireland and the latest plan for Harmonie Star is to send her over hurdles this season.50/1 Kingbrook bgc Ian Williams f7-2-4 (97) 103
Kingman (Montjeu){1-e}(0.63) 2/1 Tower Bridge 3rd Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2018
Switched to Ian Williams as a three-year old and has progressed into a useful type. However, there has yet to be any indication that Kingbrook will be going hurdling this term.50/1 Holly bf Ireland b4-3-0
Voiladenuo (Turgeon){5-h}(0.52) 2/1 Valaway 4th Prix Andre Michel (G3), Auteuil 2008
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/holly-1
Whereas Harmonie Star finished fifth on her debut before winning the rest of her races, Holly won her first three races before finishing fifth last time out. She made her racecourse bow at Vichy in May and though she took a while to get herself organised in the straight, the penny dropped in time to get up near the finish. She had Harmonie Star just over two lengths behind her in fifth that day, and they would share the spoils of a Le lion d’Angers Groupe III next time out. Holly’s third win came at Durtal on sticky ground and while she also took time to move though the gears, this was a more commanding victory and it compelled JP McManus to take the plunge. Carrying the hoops for the first time, she met her first taste of defeat in a Groupe I contest at Saint Cloud where she got stuck in the heavy ground and finished some twelve lengths in arrears of Hollee. Similar to Harmonie Star, establishing the form’s value is much of a muchness, and anything beyond stating that she was near the top of her class would be speculative. Erwan Grall has been responsible for just one juvenile hurdler thus far, but he got off to the perfect start as a supplier when Good Ball won on his British debut at Newbury. Voiladenuo, a son of Network, was a decent quality jumper who won a Grade Three hurdle as a four year old, and the Grade Two Prix Léon Rambaud two years later in 2015. He is currently having first crop of jumping age and while Holly is his only winner to date, a couple of others have shown fair placed form over hurdles. Holly is not closely related to any top-class hurdlers, but she is out of a half-sister to the fairly useful Valaway as well as a couple of minor winners in Britain. More distantly, the Champion Hurdle winner Punjabi can be found back at 5/6. Having competed four times, she would have to go straight over hurdles whenever she makes her debut. Who that will be with or when that might be has not yet been disclosed.50/1 Night And Day bf W Mullins f4-0-3 (70.4) 50
Sea The Moon (Danehill){9-f}(1.22) 0.5 Supasundae 1st Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown 2018
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/night-and-day-1
Already written
A horse from the Arqana sales whose destination has been disclosed is Night And Day who has moved to the yard of Willie Mullins who has enjoyed winners with six of the last seven juveniles bought from Deauville. She is unraced over hurdles but earned an equivilent rating of 70.4 from four runs on the flat, three of which saw her finish placed including when runner up last time in a Clairefontaine handicap over 2900 meters. Her flat rating is the lowest of all the Mullins purchases yet at €90,000, she is the most expensive of any horse bringing a rating lower than 80 from France. This can be explained in part to her being a half sister to the top class Supasundae as well as other winners Distingo and Twenty Twenty and that her sire Sea The Moon produced winners Allmankind, Must See The Doc and Gealach in his first jumping crop. She needs to leave her flat form far behind to get to the top of the division but she obviously stays, has a likeable pedigree and is in very good hands
Update
No real updates to give. She has yet to have any entries and nothing new was revealed in One Jump Ahead. The form of her second at Angers has not been well advertised by either the winner Royaume Uni, or fourth placed Ronde De Nuit as both have disappointed in British juveniles.50/1 Paso Doble brc Paul Nicholls f9-2-3 (84) 90
Dawn Approach (Samum){8-k}(0.60) 0.5 Bailarico 1st Handicap Hurdle (117), Catterick 2020
Paso Doble reached the frame on each of his five starts in 2020 for Jim Bolger, and fetched €125,000 at the Goffs Autumn Online Sale. Finishing nearer last than first on his four outings as a two year old, he ran out a surprise but emphatic winner on his return as he powered away with a Roscommon handicap off 66 at the end of August. He followed up in a similar fashion at Fairyhouse on the first of October over ten furlongs. Though a beaten favourite on his next three starts the same month, he finished third on each occasion in handicaps at Killarney and Dundalk in races which have all worked out respectably. Consistent from ten to fourteen furlongs, his efforts last year came either on standard, or when soft appeared in the going description. Juvenile hurdlers formerly trained by Jim Bolger have a solid winners to runners rate of 30.51%, although that figure drops to a standard 21.05% for those sold at public auction. Paul Nicholls has a strong record in the division, but his record with publicly bought Irish trained flat recruits reads as zero winners from three with all of them costing at least €100,000. His record with such horses bought privately is three winners from six and includes Dodging Bullets (a maiden as a juvenile), Sir Psycho and Act Of Valour. Dawn Approach is without a winning juvenile from nine to date and none have posted RPRs exceeding 104. Damsire Samum is a sound influence on the division, and while the damline is mostly devoid of jumpers, half-brother Bailarico is a winning hurdler. Paso Doble is with a very strong yard and his flat form demonstrates ample class, stamina, size and versatility for the discipline. Though the sire has yet to prove himself, and Paul Nicholls has had more successful means of procuring talent, he was spoken of in Adonis Hurdle terms on his arrival at Ditcheat.50/1 Prunay bg Ireland f2-0-0 j2-0-2
Prince Gibraltar (Daylami){8-f}(1.50) 3/4 Cerberus 3rd Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/prunay
Already written
Since 2011/12 there have been seventy-four juveniles who found new homes after the Arqana Summer sales at Deavillle including Diakali, Petite Parisienne, Adriana des Mottes and Zubayr. The last named was the most expensive of them all when he fetched €380,000 in 2015 but his price is the only one that exceeds this year’s top lot, Prunay, who changed hands for €240,000. Prunay’s career began in a flat race at Fontainebleau last November where he finished sixth, less than two lengths behind a future listed winner and three-quarters of a length ahead of a listed third. After a return to Fontainebleau for another flat race, he once again finished sixth ahead of a pair of subsequent handicap winners. His hurdling debut came in the Prix Grandak touched upon in Mica Malpic’s write up earlier in the thread. A launchpad for such quality jumpers as Beaumac de Houelle, Storm Of Saintly and Saint des Saints, this year’s renewal saw Prunay finish nine lengths behind the winner but upwards of eleven lengths of the remainder. The winner has not been seen out since and those in behind have done nothing to uphold or elevate the form. Nevertheless, Prunay did give his stock a more respectable look when finishing third in the Prix Aguado, a Grade 3 with a good tradition, at Auteuil ahead of five previous winners and jumping well in the process. Sire Prince Gibraltar has had just the one hurdler in Ireland but has had three others in France thus far including a winner and a placed horse and while the Rock Of Gibraltar line is not prolific, it can get decent types. Daylami’s record as a damsire is below average but by no means the worst. Prunay’s damline is not brimming with jumpers but it does include last season’s decent juvenile Cerberus (3/4) with The Job Is Right (5/6) further back. It has not been disclosed which particular yard Prunay will end up but the agent Toby Jones did say he was going to clients in Ireland and stated that his being a maiden enhanced his price tag as well as describing him more a chasing type for the future.
Update
Still no idea where he is. The Prix Aguado form has been boosted by fourth placed Baladin de Mesc who since won a listed hurdle, finished runner-up in a Grade Three, and third in the Prix Cambaceres. Runner-up Jeu de Paume has twice finished not far behind the aforementioned while the winner has not really built on his profile.50/1 Punctuation bg Charlie Longsdon f8-1-3 (83) 91
Dansili (Galileo){12-c}(0.86) 3/1 King Carew 2nd Handicap Chase (L,120), Cork 2003
Already written
As mentioned earlier in this thread, the Andrew Balding yard usually has a sizeable dispersion of its three-year-olds at the autumn sales but those who are sold are no likelier to go over hurdles than they are to race overseas or stay on the flat. Punctuation is still with Andrew Balding and until it is confirmed that he has joined a national hunt yard, he probably should not be listed for the Triumph Hurdle.
Update
In the event, Andrew Balding had seventeen three-year-olds offered at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, with his top lot going to Saudi Arabia for 185,000 guineas. The next best seller was Punctuation whose but of 110,000 guineas diverted him from the desert to near Chipping Norton. Former residents of Kingsclere win their fair share of juvenile hurdles, although little over a quarter will improve for the switch between codes. Balding has been responsible for seven juveniles who fetched more than 100,000 guineas and while three were winners, only Flaxen Flare could be described as pattern class. Charlie Longsdon has a respectable winners to runners rate of 29.03%, and Punctuation is set be his most expensive public purchase by some margin, with the next priciest being dual winner Paintball at 70,000 guineas in 2010. Punctuation, as a racehorse rather than a commodity, made his debut last January when a head second to To Nathaniel in a twelve furlong novice stakes at Kempton. The following month, he took a course and distance maiden by eleven lengths from a fairly moderate field. He was stepped up to pattern company for his next two starts at Newmarket and Ascot, but was well beaten on each occasion. The remainder of his four runs came in fourteen furlong, class two handicaps at Haydock, Sandown and twice at York, during which time his mark dropped from 89 to 83. Though he had a questionable headcarriage when last seen in October, he has generally looked quite straightforward although there may be a preference for firmer ground. Dansili has a strong 35.14% winners to runners rate in the division, and Galileo is a stronger damsire than sire. The dam is a half-sister to a pair of minor jumps winners as well as successful national hunt sire Kalanisi. Punctuation is entered up at Catterick next week, and while he is not an obvious Triumph contender, he is a decent enough looking recruit to the division.50/1 Soaring Monarch bg Peter Fahey 8-1-2 (82) 87
Free Eagle (Dubawi){10-c}(0.90) 5/4 Bayan 1st Handicap Hurdle (G3,146), Ascot 2014
Already written
Soaring Monarch is not mentioned in terms of hurdling on the internet apart from in the Triumph lists but as his trainer predominantly handles national hunt horses, we can work on the assumption that that is where his attentions will be turned. He sprang a 50/1 surprise when losing his maiden tag at Limerick in June in a six and a half furlong maiden which has produced just one subsequent winner who landed a handicap off 59. He has since finished runner up in a pair of handicaps at the Galway festival including last time off 83 over nine and a half furlongs on soft ground. Soaring Monarch is rather distantly (5/4) related to the good handicapper Bayan but more immediately, his half brother and his dam’s two siblings are all poor maidens over jumps. This will be his sire’s first crop of juveniles and while his sire High Chaparral was good influence in the sphere, his sons have yet to really make a mark although Dubawi has a couple of winners from seven as a damsire. Peter Fahey has had no winner from his three juveniles since the 2011/12 season and while Soaring Monarch could well be a capable juvenile, his inclusion in the Triumph betting is very premature.
Update
Soaring Monarch has since placed fourth in seven furlong handicaps at Tipperary and the Curragh and has also changed ownership while staying with the trainer. Free Eagle has had two winners and two seconds from his first crop which is a fine start. However, Soaring Monarch has yet to be entered over hurdles and has not been seen in public since early November.50/1 Tax For Max bc Willie Mullins f6-0-3 DeF GAG94.5 (109) 106
Maxios (Starborough){1-m}(0.80) 0.5 Tiger Tap Tap 4th Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2019
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-racing/race/details/id/3632426/external/19256 – Munich
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-racing/race/details/id/3536541/external/19018 – Hannover
Despite costing €200,000 at the Arqana Autumn sale, Tax For Max is still a maiden after six races in Germany. Nevertheless, he has progressed nicely since his debut in May and a staying on second in a valuable auction race at Hannover on his penultimate start was surpassed by a creditable fifth in a Group One in November. Just preceding the leaders turning into the straight, he briefly moved into second before losing his position a furlong from home and finishing just under six lengths behind the winner in fifth. Given its location, it would not be one of the stronger Group Ones in Europe, but it would still be high class in the context of juvenile hurdling. The German Derby runner-up was in second, Charlie Appleby’s 114 rated Secret Advisor was just half a length ahead of Tax For Max, and a line through third placed Dicaprio puts him cosily ahead of the Stuart Edmunds filly Megan. Henk Grewe has supplied the division with the one juvenile in the past in the useful juvenile Tiger Tap Tap who is also a half-brother to Tax For Max along with his new stablemate. Apart than Whiteout, who was able to win as a juvenile, this is the extent of the Mullins yard with imported German juveniles, but his record with French flat imports is beyond reproach. As well as being a half-brother to Tiger Tap Tap, the granddam is a half-sister to the top class hurdler Muse, while Supreme Hurdle third Rakes Lane (4/3) and Triumph third Al Mutahm (5/3) appear further back on the damline. Maxios has a strong record in the division and he has already had an impact on the current campaign in the form of Quilixios. Though he will still need to prove himself over hurdles, Tax For Max has very strong credentials with his form, trainer and pedigree.50/1 Teahupoo bg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 121
Masked Marvel (Sassanian){12-g}(0.50) 1/0 Droit d’Aimer 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Enghien 2010
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/teahupoo
Teahupoo has had just the one race to date, which came in the Prix Emilius on Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris day in mid-October. Although fairly late in the season for juvenile imports, the newcomers’ contest has featured several who would join British and Irish yards including 2011 winner Balder Succes, 2012 winner Rolling Star, and last season’s runner-up Solo. Initially in a prominent position, he was baulked at the first by a rival jumping across him and he dropped back to midfield. Though impeded again at the second, he cruised up to settle behind the leader ahead of the final circuit. Travelling strongly into the straight, he jumped into the lead at the last and though his running against the rail helped his cause, he still ran on strongly to run out a length and a quarter winner. Despite suffering interference in the early stages, Teahupoo jumped very well with his getting slightly close to the seventh being hardly worth a mention. The form has been boosted in no uncertain terms, with runner-up Good Ball winning on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Newbury, and third placed Haut les Coeurs was a twelve length winner next time out. Masked Marvel has a solid record thus far in the division, and along with the dam winning her first three starts over hurdles, Prix Rush winner Kanto (4/1) and the classy juvenile Top Notch (4/3) also appear in the pedigree. The Leenders family were responsible for Gordon Elliott’s Anniversary Hurdle runner-up Clarcam, and though the stable is already saturated with talent, Teahupoo could be yet another exciting recruit.50/1 Zoran bc Paul Nicholls f7-1-3 (81) 85
Invincible Spirit (Galileo){12-b}(1.00) 3/1 Spectrometer 3rd Coral Cup (G3,138), Cheltenham 2003
During seven runs on the flat for Hugo Palmer, Zoran has been progressive throughout his career. He got off the mark on his penultimate outing in a five runner, ten furlong handicap at Newmarket in September off a mark of 78. Though sporting a tongue tie and visor, he stayed on gamely to prevail by half a length. He was less convincing when last seen finishing sixth at Yarmouth, although it is possible that he was not suited by the soft ground. His current rating of 81 is a fair reflection of his ability and not out of line with Triumph class horses. He sold for 77,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, but it is worth noting that those formerly trained by Hugo Palmer’s have a moderate record in the division with only Persiflage winning a moderate contest from thirteen horses. Notwithstanding, ex-inmate Mengli Khan, who cost 155,000 guineas, was much stronger in his second campaign. The offspring of Invincible Spirit do not achieve much in the sphere, with the winners to runners rate being 9.68%, and the highest RPR achieved from thirty-one juveniles was 123. A grandson of Ouija Board makes Zoran a nephew of Australia, a good sire in the division, and a relative of the useful Spectrometer.There are three other horses currently at 50/1, two of whom are owned by JP McManus. Hashtag Val and Mica Malpic are both with currently with David Cottin, with the former finishing third at Fontainebleau on his sole hurdles run, and the latter disappointing at Compiegne on his first run for the new owner. Brentford Hope (66/1) boosted his class credentials with a win over a mile at Haydock in October that brought his rating up to 100. However, it was said afterwards that the step down in trip suited, and that he would be targeted at pattern races in the upcoming flat season. North Street (100/1) is a complete non-hoper while Willy Nilly (150/1) is a 67 rated 14,000 guineas purchase for Donald McCain who is not too distantly related to Torpichen.
Fortune Finder is also listed at 50/1 with Unibet. With Nimes available with the same firm at 40/1, this now makes two dead horses on their lists. The adjective used to describe Unibet would probably be “disgusting”, while the noun is best left to the imagination.
There are probably a few more who might enter the markets over the next few weeks. I have found six potential juveniles who are yet to be quoted, three from French hurdles, three from the flat. I will hopefully do profiles on them before too long, but since nobody likes surprises, their names are Galata Bridge, Vulcan and Wise Glory from the flat, and Homme Public, Samarrive, and Fortunes Melody from across the channel. I am rather surprised that the latter has not been listed as she is the second placed French filly for prize money, third for official rating, and has joined Harry Fry.
Cheers Sam. I’m glad you enjoyed it! I was pretty narked at myself for overestimating Yggdrasil, but when the racing is as good as it was yesterday, “being right” really isn’t all that significant.
Crassus is better than his rating, but it might be prudent to check and see if nobody involved in the race has a birthday or something…
Here are the trials records of the first four home in each of the sixteen previous Triumph Hurdles.
The reviews for the weekend’s action have yet to be done as the past few days were spent in a state of agitation over the prospect of a move to a shelter or the streets (which the more lucid of the homeless people I spoke to claim is preferable to the former). Fortunately, I may have been offered a reprieve as a friend of a friend might be looking for lodger. Naturally, this has prompted a new series of matters that require attendance, but priorities being priorities, here is an essay for the juvenile at Catterick which may or may not be sleeted away.
Corresponding race held on the North Yorkshire Grand National card each season since 2010
Eight of the ten winners had UK/IRE hurdling experience
Cockney Sparrow was beaten in this race at 1/6 in 2013 before winning handicap hurdle at Aintree festival
Cornerstone Lad won in 2018 prior to close second in Victor Ludorum
Intense Tango won in 2015 ahead of win in Doncaster Mares’ Hurdle
Though a maiden in all but name, race has some useful placed form as well as expensive flat recruit.
Seven of the trainers and all but one of the sires have above average records in the sphere
Average winning RPRs of 114.5md and 115.8mn are slightly higher than course average, but lower than standard
Course winning DIs of 1.20md, 1.26mn roughly average
Median SP 4.00 higher than average, but record of odds-on favs 70.59% above average
Going currently soft with sleet forecast overnight. Precautionary inspection at 7.30amBalkardy chg Evan Williams j1-0-1 (-) 97 99
Balko (Limnos){1-e}(0.50) 2/2 Roll On Has 1st Prix Alain du Breil (G1), Auteuil 2014
Few racecourse debutants outside of France will have been better bred than Balkardy. A son of Balko (Blacko, Gitaine du Berlais, Ubaltique), his granddam was a dual winning juvenile in France and is the matriarch of a line which includes Royale Cazoumaille (fourth in the 2005 Grand Prix d’Automne and dam of Venetia Williams’ promising Royale Pagaille), Royal Satarania (first in the 2015 Prix Murat), Inoxe Royale (winner of a four year old Listed Chase) and top French juvenile hurdler Roll On Has. While not well fancied ahead of his Warwick introduction last month, drifting from 18/1 in the morning to start at 33/1, he still ran with promise. Held up in rear, his first three jumps were big and untidy but he was soon hurdling with more fluency. Though he never got close to the leaders, he stayed on well up the straight to finish a clear third. Runner-up Ambassador is the only prominent horse to have come out of the race, but he did build on his debut when left in third at Kempton. Evan Williams has had only one winner in the past fortnight, but that did come in the Welsh National and most of his shorter priced charges have been running close. His overall record with juveniles is a solid one and though he has gone just over a year without a winner in the division, both of his juveniles have been placed this term. Balkardy has a good all round profile and though he has around ten pounds to find on hurdling form with Wise Eagle, he did shape like an obvious improver first time out.Caldwell bc Michael Scudamore f3-0-2 (-) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 99 86
Dansili (Barathea){13-c}(1.67) 1/1 Quebec 1st Novices’ Hurdle, Market Rasen 2015
Placed on the first two of his three starts for Dermot Weld, Caldwell joined his new connections for 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. The standard of flat form is perfectly respectable in the context of this discipline and he is a brother to two winning hurdlers. While he was withdrawn on account of heavy ground at Listowel, he was not entirely unsuited by the conditions at Wetherby where he received warm market support through the day. However, a conspicuous misgiving from the flat was his peculiar headcarriage and this translated into a very sloppy round of jumping on his hurdles debut. He steadied into the first where he jumped big and to the left, was big and left at the second, steadied and got close to the third, was close and skewed over the fourth, close again into the fifth, clipped the top and stumbled on landing at the sixth (this was his best jump of the race), skewed and went left at the seventh and eighth and was big and skewed over the last. Tracking the leader throughout, he was taken the scenic route and was still in contention at the top of the straight. The futility of his task revealed itself as the race began to wrap up and rather sensibly, he was given nothing harsher than a hands and heels ride and was allowed to come home in his own time with almost fifty lengths in hand over his remaining opponents. Though he was beaten a distance, it was still a promising debut as in the absence of Hacker des Places, he would have been a very impressive winner in spite of the litany of jumping errors. His jumping absolutely needs to improve and he might also benefit from a date with a pair of scissors which has not happened in the past couple of weeks. Nevertheless, it was his first run for over two months, he should be fitter for the experience and if it does not have the impact of draining him too much, he can be competitive in ordinary company. Michael Scudamore has a low strike rate in the division however and those of his who have won, did so after more than two runs over hurdles.El Jefe bg Brian Ellison f7-0-2 (53) 57 j1-0-0 (-) 15 9
Born To Sea (Montjeu){22-a}(0.63) 2/1 Mountain 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2007
Brian Ellison has the strongest record of the trainers represented in this field, and has five wins from twenty-two juveniles at this venue since 2009. His runner here, El Jefe, was moderate on the flat, but his best effort in that sphere was also his latest one when second in a Redcar handicap off 51 after a wind operation. He was very well backed to make a winning hurdles debut at Wetherby eighteen days ago, starting the day at 33/1, opening in the ring at 9/1, and setting off at 16/5. However, while he jumped well enough save for going left at the second and steadying at the fourth, he took a keen hold up from the start to the home straight where he faded to finish over a hundred lengths behind the winner. It is possible that the run was too bad to be deemed reliable and El Jefe is at least bred to do better as a hurdler. Nevertheless, even his strongest flat form will leave him short in this company.Lanval bg Sam England f3-0-1 (58) 61
Camelot (Woodman){8-c}(1.00) 2/2 Den Maschine 1st Handicap Hurdle (115), Sandown 2012
Making his debut in September, Lanval ran three times on the flat for David Menuisier with the best performance coming last time when beaten eighteen lengths in a Chelmsford novice stakes. Since then, he joined Sam England for 1,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Camelot is a useful stallion in the division and his 55 rated Hen managed to win a very modest handicap at Uttoxter last season. However, there no other cause for enthusiasm in the profile.Masterdream bg Tim Vaughan f4-0-0 (73) 70 j2-0-0 (-) 70 68
Sea The Stars (Danehill Dancer){20}(1.40) 3/1 Vasco Marengo 1st 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2009
Though he fetched 56,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, Masterdream did not really achieve enough during three runs for John Oxx to warranty such a price. He was unfancied ahead of his hurdling bow where jumped poorly and finished tailed off, and quadrupled from a morning show of 20/1 when last again at Taunton just over a fortnight ago. He jumped better on that occasion and managed to finish closer to the winner, but he was still beaten nearly forty lengths and was the last of the six finishers.Punctuation bg Charlie Longsdon f8-1-3 (83) 91
Dansili (Galileo){12-c}(0.86) 3/1 King Carew 2nd Handicap Chase (Listed,120), Cork 2003
Andrew Balding had seventeen three-year-olds offered at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, with his top lot going to Saudi Arabia for 185,000 guineas. The next best seller was Punctuation whose bid of 110,000 guineas diverted him from the desert to near Chipping Norton. Former residents of Kingsclere win their fair share of juvenile hurdles, although little over a quarter will improve for the switch between codes. Balding has been responsible for seven juveniles who fetched more than 100,000 guineas and while three were winners, only Flaxen Flare could be described as pattern class. Charlie Longsdon has a respectable winners to runners rate of 29.03%, and Punctuation is set be his most expensive public purchase by some margin, with the next priciest being dual winner Paintball at 70,000 guineas in 2010. Punctuation, as a racehorse rather than a commodity, made his debut last January when a head second to To Nathaniel in a twelve furlong novice stakes at Kempton. The following month, he took a course and distance maiden by eleven lengths from a fairly moderate field. He was stepped up to pattern company for his next two starts at Newmarket and Ascot, but was well beaten on each occasion. The remainder of his four runs came in fourteen furlong, class two handicaps at Haydock, Sandown and twice at York, during which time his mark dropped from 89 to 83. Though he had a questionable headcarriage when last seen in October, he has generally looked quite straightforward although there may be a preference for firmer ground. Dansili has a strong 35.14% winners to runners rate in the division, and Galileo is a stronger damsire than sire. The dam is a half-sister to a pair of minor jumps winners as well as successful national hunt sire Kalanisi. Along with this entry, Punctuation is also declared in the Chatteris Fen at Huntingdon. Quite whether this is indicative of the stable’s expectations, or its desire to get a run into him is a matter of speculation, but his flat rating is well above average for a recruit into the division. Brian Hughes is an interesting booking should he take this engagement, and the yard’s only other juvenile to have ran at Catterick finished second in the 2015 renewal of this contest. However, the stable is not in the strongest form at the moment and only one of its twenty-nine juvenile hurdlers has won first time out.Rains Of Castamere chg Mick Channon f12-4-2 (71) 75 j1-0-0 (-) – 73?
Harbour Watch (Cadeaux Genereux){5-g}(3.00) 3/2 Quill Art 1st Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (97), Doncaster 2016
Winning a seller on his final start as a two year old, and a handicap on his first run after a winter break, Rains Of Castamere went into October with nine races to his name. Nevertheless, while he was well beaten when third in a Leicester handicap, he wrapped up his latest campaign with a double in a pair of mile handicaps at Windsor and Newmarket. The form of those outings has been patchy at best and though he was not unfancied, he lacked fluency when well beaten at Plumpton on his hurdling debut less than twenty-four hours ago. It would be a surprise is he makes the long journey after such a poor showing.Saint Palais bg Richard J Bandey j2-0-1 (-) 68
Saint Des Saints (Turgeon){26}(1.29) 1/1 Lord Du Mesnil 2nd National Hunt Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/saint-palais
Cutting his teeth in the point to point field, Richard Bandey began training under rules in 2018 and Saint Palais is set to be his first juvenile hurdler. One of Francois Nicolle’s four runners in the Prix d’Essai des Poulains back in March, Saint Palais was the third string in the market, just ahead of stablemate Quilixios. In the event, Quilixios won with ease and is now a leading fancy for the Triumph, while Saint Palais lacked fluency and finished a tailed off last. Following a break of close to eight months, he returned in a nineteen furlong steeple chase at Maure de Bretagne. A contest worth just €12,000, it resembled more a cross country chase and Saint Palais jumped rather inconsistently before closing on the leaders and failing to win by a narrow margin. The quality of the form is negligible outside of the provinces, but race did hint at the very likely future for Saint Palais. A full brother to Lord du Mesnil, his dam and two other siblings won over fences as four-year-olds, and the Scottish National runner-up Goonyella along with the excellent French stayer Shannon Rock appear at 3/2 on the damline. Bred to make a staying chaser, Saint Palais is unlikely to make much impact in this discipline outside of very moderate company.Salamanca School bg Warren Greatrex f7-1-3 (65) 76
Rock Of Gibraltar (Pennekamp){9-e}(1.91) 1/1 Sofia’s Rock 3rd Listed Hurdle, Kempton 2019
Habitual front-runner Salamanca School ran seven times on the flat for Mark Johnston, winning a seller as a two-year-old, and was last seen finishing thirteen lengths behind Elham Valley when runner-up in another seller at Goodwood at the end of August. Between those outings, he competed in three handicaps, but was well beaten on each occasion and his mark dropped from 79 to 65 during 2020. Joining Warren Greatrex for £12,500 at the Goffs September sale, he is with a yard that boasts a decent winners to runners ratio of 28%, and a healthy improvement rate of 52.63%. Rock Of Gibraltar gets his fair share of winners but his improvement rate of 32.61% is the lowest in the field and both sire and trainer have below par overall strike rates. Salamanca School is a full brother to the useful Sofia’s Rock, and Danny Whizzbang also appears on the damline at 2/3. Nevertheless, while there are positive in the profile and the ground should not be a problem, the regressive flat form and the wind operation prior to his sale at Goffs are not particularly encouraging.Simply True chg D J Jeffreys f18-4-1 (85) 87 h1-0-0 (-) 74 76
Camacho (Beat Hollow){5-h}(1.46) 2/1 Dr Livingstone 1st Novices’ Hurdle, Leicester 2009
Four times a winner on the flat for Andrew Oliver, earning a rating of 85 in the process, Simply True joined David Jeffreys for 50,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Pitched in at the deep end on his hurdling debut at Cheltenham last month, he was weak in the market beforehand, drifting from an opening show of 9/1 out to 18/1 at the off. Though he led for all but the last three furlongs of the race, his reticent jumping and relative keenness prevented him from looking a serious threat. He lost his position turning for home and dropped back quickly through the field as he trailed in by nearly fifty lengths, and beating only one home. His ability to set the pace over hurdles is a positive and he should benefit for the experience in this softer contest. Furthermore, the yard had a couple of thirds at this venue eleven days ago so Simply True would not be a forlorn hope.Wise Eagle chg Adam Nicol f6-1-0 (67) 74 j1-0-1 (-) 106 110
Free Eagle (Exceed And Excel){9-e}(1.00) 3/2 Cardinal Palace 2nd Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (G2) Chepstow
Although he won a Lingfield maiden in February on his second flat start, Wise Eagle had subsequently finished seventh on four consecutive outings in handicap company. Leaving Tom Clover for 7,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he was sent off at 66/1 for his, and his new trainer’s, first attempt in a juvenile hurdle at Wetherby last month. His latest rating of 67 was a reasonable reflection of his ability although he did pull extremely hard at Yarmouth in October. The blinkers he wore on the flat were left off for his stable/hurdling debut and he settled well in midfield from the outset. Apart from getting close to the sixth, he posted a respectable round for a newcomer and while he could not get near the winner, a better jump at the last enabled him to finish second. It was not the highest quality contest, but the field was strung out and though the winner was beaten at Musselburgh at the start of the month, he appeared to maintain his form nevertheless. Those previously placed in the first three in Catterick juveniles have nine wins from twenty-eight runners, and with the form of Wise Eagle being the strongest shown over hurdles in this contest, he would be entitled to plenty of respect.Strong prospects
1. Wise Eagle
Reasonable prospects
2. Balkardy
3. Punctuation
4. Simply True
Feasible prospects
5. Caldwell
Moderate prospects
6. Salamanca School
7. Saint Palais
8. El Jefe
Negligible prospects
9. Masterdream
10. Rains Of Castamere
11. LanvalThank you befair. The lodger thing is looking positive which has brought some respite to the saga. To be honest, I have been incredibly fortunate in that I just happened to know someone who knows someone in the right situation at the right time. Otherwise, it was looking very dire, very imminently. While there is a sense of cautious relief, I am more livid at the state of affairs in this country. The provisions for homeless people in the fifth largest economy are less than pathetic, and I do not think many realise just how close ordinary people are to finding themselves on the streets. It is not just the archetypal caricatures who end up homeless either. I have worked most of my life and was working until the first lockdown happened. I am not in debt, have never been addicted to any substance and have not even touched a drop of alcohol for twenty months because it does nothing for me. Nevertheless, I found myself perilously close to the curb simply because I have rarely worked for much above minimum wage, like many people of my generation I have little in the way of savings, and had not yet settled into a new career path. But ruminating on political stuff all day long is not productive in either a material or spiritual sense. Moreover, it is always important to remember and treasure the things in life that we can be grateful for such as this fantastic looking race.
Saturday’s juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse is only the fourth iteration in its current format and has featured only sixteen runners to date. Nevertheless, it has been a very dense contest in terms of quality with fourteen of those also taking in other notable races. The 2018 edition saw Winning Fair victor Michouka score from Fred Winter winner Veneer Of Charm, 2019 was fought out between Spring Juvenile third Surin and Triumph third Gardens Of Babylon while last season had Spring Juvenile runner-up Wolf Prince hold Fred Winter winner Aramax in third. This season’s renewal is set to have the largest field and could also be the strongest one to date. All of the declared runners have won races, five of them are undefeated, and two have ran in graded company. Youmdor is the standout on Irish form, but Gordon Elliott and Gavin Cromwell also introduce a pair of French winners with the former’s representative having his form boosted at Newbury recently. These three along with Awkwafina, hold entries in the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Fairyhouse is one of the less demanding tracks in the country and the average winning DIs for juveniles of 1.20 median, 1.27 mean would attest to this premise. The clear round rate of 97.78% is the third highest in Ireland, and the record of favourites and odds-on shots is close to average. The going is currently heavy and though it looks to be dry before tomorrow evening, there is heavy rain forecast overnight.
Triumph odds
Youmdor 18/1
Autumn Evening 50/1
Teahupoo 50/1
Druid’s Altar 100/1Fred Winter odds
Teahupoo 25/1
Autumn Evening 33/1Alexei Vronsky bg Padraig Roche f6-1-0 (68) 71 j3-1-0 (-) 107 105
Power (Fasliyev){11-d}(3.00) 0.5 Maria Padilla 7th 3YO Maiden Hurdle, Thurles 2013
Alexei Vronsky began his 2020 campaign with a win in a Roscommon handicap off 62, end ended it with a win in a Punchestown maiden on his third hurdles outing. He had the best hurdles form going into a weak contest for the venue with a ten length fourth to Perry Owens at Galway, and an eighteen length sixth at Fairyhouse behind Jeff Kidder. He jumped well on each occasion before his attempts to close wore thin in the closing stages. Ridden more positively, he put in a decent round at Punchestown which only began to loosen in the latter stages. Prominent throughout, he took the lead after the penultimate flight. Steadying into the last with a clear advantage, he had enough in reserve to hold off the challenge of the runner up. He did not have to improve on his previous hurdling form to win, and while the race has produced a winner which looked unlikely at the time, he still would prefer a much sounder surface to what he might encounter on Saturday.Autumn Evening chg Mrs John Harrington f4-0-2 (78) 78 j2-1-0 (-) 122 128
Tamayuz (Manduro){1-t}(1.25) 2/1 Menelaus 1st Handicap Hurdle (98), Towcester 2007
First appearing on the racecourse in late August, Autumn Evening followed a pair of reasonable outings with two successive third place finishes at Navan and the Curragh. He was sent off a well backed 5/4 favourite on his hurdling debut at Cork last month and obliged in pleasing fashion. A solid stamp of a horse, he was always racing prominently and jumped nicely for the most part. He got in slightly close to three out but travelled smoothly to the penultimate flight where he jumped into a slender lead. He cruised towards the final flight but an untidy leap saw him skid on landing and lose some momentum. Nevertheless, he only needed a hands and heels ride to regain superiority and carried a length advantage over the line. The form of the race has worked out moderately at this juncture, and Autumn Evening failed to build on his success in the Grade Two on Boxing Day. Unfancied in the market beforehand, his jumping profile was much the same as at Cork as he was slightly untidy at the first, got in close to the second, skewed over the fourth and, saving his worst until the end, flattened the last which cost him several strides worth of momentum. Nevertheless, he was still beaten entirely on merit and while he would still be an above average sort, this is very much an above average contest. Though his place claims are not slender, he may find at least a couple too strong and his yard is not in flying form at the moment. Incidentally, Jessica Harrington did run Got Trumped to finish fourth in this contest prior to a tilt at the Fred Winter hurdle.Druid’s Altar bg Joseph Patrick O’Brien f5-1-2 (86) 79 j3-1-0 (-) 121 126
Mastercraftsman (Sadler’s Wells){13-c}(1.20) 0.5 Waterlord 4th Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Haydock 2018
An above average sort on the flat, Druid’s Altar was a commanding winner on his hurdles debut in a gruelling contest at Punchestown, albeit one which has not worked out brilliantly. He went off too quickly for his own good next time at Fairyhouse when fading behind Zanahiyr, and was another unfancied in the Boxing Day Grade Two. He led once again but did so under a very tight grip, and though he was still keen, it was fairly mild in nature. He steadied slightly going into the third and fifth but jumped fine otherwise and though headed and dropped from the turn into the straight, he was more outpaced than tired. From a form perspective, this was a slight improvement on his Punchestown effort, but he is becoming rather exposed and another trip around Fairyhouse looks unlikely to suit. Joseph O’Brien has been in good form recently, and he sent Gardens Of Babylon to finish second in this two years ago. However, this is a tough assignment and unlike his predecessor, Druid’s Altar is not entered in the Spring Juvenile.Josh d’Id bg Gavin Cromwell j1-1-0 (-) – –
Joshua Tree (Okawango){26}(0.63) 0.5 Ladygaya 2nd 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Mont-de-Marsan 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/josh-did (yellow, orange sleeves, orange cap, noseband)
Daniela Mele has supplied just one horse to the division thus far in the fairly useful Stratagem, and Josh d’Id could be another useful recruit. His sole run to date came in an ordinary conditions event at Saint Brieuc in mid November. Initially steady and untidy at his jumps, he lost his prominent position along the back of the second circuit. However, his jumping improved by the time they reached the final lap and he pursued the clear leader before taking his place on the turn for home. From there, he did not have to be ridden hard and though he was green, he ran out a comfortable twelve length winner. Being a race of its nature at a provincial venue, it probably took little winning. Nevertheless, the runner-up had previously been beaten a shorter distance by Houx Gris at Auteuil, and the thirty-eight length fourth won next time at Nantes. Sire Joshua Tree is on his second crop in the division and though he has yet to be tested in Britain or Ireland, he has done well in France thus far and already has a listed winner to his name. The immediate damline has only minor winners, but leading juvenile Don Lino appears at 4/2, with useful sorts Olofi and Gumball at 4/3. Gavin Cromwell has a healthy winners to runners rate of 25% although he is without a win from eighteen runs this term and his recent form is modest. Nevertheless, Josh d’Id is clearly held in some regard as he is entered for the Spring Juvenile, a race the trainer has had just three runners in Jer’s Girl, Espoir d’Allen, and Wolf Prince who won this contest last season. Incidentally, he is also the only JP McManus owned horse who holds an entry. A compelling recruit to the division, Josh d’Id would be a most compelling contender in any ordinary contest. However, this is a strong race of its type and while his immaturity last time is not a major concern, the form of his stable tempers enthusiasm. Furthermore, the contest he won in France was run over eighteen furlongs which would not be conducive to elucidating the suitability of a sharp venue like Fairyhouse.Teahupoo bg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 121 –
Masked Marvel (Sassanian){12-g}(0.50) 1/0 Droit d’Aimer 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Enghien 2010
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/teahupoo
Teahupoo has had just the one race to date, which came in the Prix Emilius on Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris day in mid-October. Although fairly late in the season for juvenile imports, the newcomers’ contest has featured several who would join British and Irish yards including 2011 winner Balder Succes, 2012 victor Rolling Star, and last season’s runner-up Solo. Teahupoo started in a prominent position, but was baulked at the first by a rival jumping across him and he dropped back to midfield. Though impeded again at the second, he cruised up to settle behind the leader ahead of the final circuit. Travelling strongly into the straight, he jumped into the lead at the last and though his running against the rail helped his cause, he still ran on strongly to run out a length and a quarter winner. Despite suffering interference in the early stages, Teahupoo jumped very well with his getting slightly close to the seventh being hardly worth a mention. The form has been boosted in no uncertain terms, with runner-up Good Ball winning on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Newbury, and third placed Haut les Coeurs was a twelve length winner next time out. Masked Marvel has a solid record thus far in the division, and along with the dam winning her first three starts over hurdles, Prix Rush winner Kanto (4/1) and the classy juvenile Top Notch (4/3) also appear in the pedigree. The Leenders family were responsible for Gordon Elliott’s Anniversary Hurdle runner-up Clarcam, and though the stable is already saturated with talent, Teahupoo could be yet another exciting recruit. Furthermore, he already holds an entry for the Spring Juvenile, and though the yard usually has a scattergun approach to this contest, it has won two of the three renewals from six runners, Teahupoo is the trainer’s sole charge here. However, similar to Josh d’Id, the Prix Emilus is also run over eighteen furlongs and again, Gordon Elliott has not been firing at his usual high standard.Youmdor bg Willie Mullins f8-2-4 (82.5) 83 j1-1-0 (-) 133 141
Youmzain (Kentucky Dynamite){2-s}(0.89) 3/1 Attiki Oddo 2nd Handicap Hurdle, Enghien 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/youmdor
Starting his career with Freddie Head, Youmdor finished first or second in all of his five starts following a switch to handicaps. He broke his duck on his handicap debut just before Christmas 2019 at Chantilly where he produced a very late burst to grab victory on the line. He was twice runner-up at the same venue in the new year and filled that position for a third time in a ten furlong Saint-Cloud handicap in May, finishing late once again. His spell of seconditis was ended last time out however when he ran out a neck winner of a “Quinte+” handicap over ten furlongs at Deauville at the end of May. A half-brother to Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere third Anodor, Youmdor’s pedigree is not inundated with hurdlers with the closest relative being handicapper Attiki Oddo at 3/1 (Burning Victory shows up at 5/4). Nevertheless, he was chosen to follow in some illustrious hoofprints as he was introduced in the same Gowran maiden used by Willie Mullins for Buiseness Sivola, Diakali and Footpad. Very strongly fancied in the market beforehand, he made a very striking impression despite imperfect early jumping. He steadied on his approach to the first couple of flights, going big over the first and close into the second. However, while he got quite close to the fourth and the penultimate flights, and could not be described as particularly neat or swift, his jumping did improve once he learned his job and he put in his best jump when getting ridden into the last. Tracking the leaders throughout, Youmdor eased into the lead after two out and after a clean jump at the last, extended his advantage to sixteen lengths at the line. The only encouragement from the jockey came in the request for a good jump at the last and it would be a stretch to suggest that Youmdor was even shaken up. He treated his rivals with utter contempt and while the runner-up has not been seen since, the third and fourth have each continued their progressive form by running creditably in maidens at Limerick and Fairyhouse. Already a winner on good and heavy, the only quibble is that he will need to improve his jumping. Should he become more fluent, which is a reasonable expectation, then Youmdor could be a very serious horse and unlike French recruits, the Mullins yard is in good health at the moment.Awkwafina bf S Curling f6-0-1 (64) 72 j1-1-0 (-) 113 113
Kyllachy (Muhtathir){1-l}(1.33) 2/1 Lone Ranger 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2013
After placing third in a Leopardstown maiden for Jack Davison, and running without disgrace in a soft ground Naas handicap off 69, Awkwafina changed hands for €8,500 at the Goffs Autumn Online Sale. She joined a Sam Curling whose only previous juvenile hurdler prior to Boxing Day was unplaced at Down Royal November 2011.
Her dam is a full-sister to maiden hurdle placed Lone Ranger and is herself, out of a half-sister to Prix Tanerko winner Baguette Magique. However, sire Kyllachy has a lamentable record in the division and since 2008/09, had failed to produce a winning juvenile from twenty-four offspring. That was until Awkwafina caused a 100/1 upset at Limerick. It was reported afterwards that Awkwafina had schooled and worked well and apart from skewing at the second, she put in a clean round on her hurdling debut. Setting off in the rear, she moved towards the midfield on entering the back stretch and made steady headway to turn for home among the leading group. She briefly led approaching the penultimate flight where she was outjumped, but regained the lead going over the last and was able to repel the challenge of Palm Beach to win by a neck. She clearly has the aptitude for the game and her performance happened to be the joint highest rated achieved by an Irish filly before Riviere d’Etel appeared on New Year’s Eve. Being that the next five all had solid chances and were a long way clear of the remainder, it would be unfair to dismiss this as a fluke and although it remains to be seen if she can repeat this showing, she may be a fair recruit to the division. Furthermore, with her sex allowance, her win leaves her with no more than half a stone to find on most of these. While she still would be a surprise winner in this company, she is not an absolute certainty to finish last.Merry Poppins grf J Motherway j1-1-0 (-) 102 106
Authorized (Peintre Celebre){1-w}(0.68) 2/1 In On The Act 3rd Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Plumpton 2006
From an undefeated filly whose sire has a lamentable record but with a respectable damline, to one with a poor damline but is also a daughter of an outstanding stallion in the sphere. Merry Poppins made her racecourse debut at Tipperary in mid-August, and started the day at 33/1 before halving in price before the off. It was said that she had schooled well and that transpired to be true as the only semblance of an error came when slightly steady going into the first. Merry Poppins was also as much a beneficiary of a brilliantly patient ride as she was a good jumper. Her willing attitude in the battle to the line was also important to her success as she threw herself into every stride to fend off Gavin Cromwell’s Differentiate. The runner-up was beaten in a flat handicap on his only subsequent run, but third placed Sweet Sixteen was beaten a similar distance at Punchestown behind Duffle Coat, Crassus and Scholastic and the front three were nearly forty lengths clear of the remainder. Though Merry Poppins is coming back after a long layoff, and her form is largely unquantifiable, she is now in the same ownership as Teahupoo and Rachael Blackmore is a notable booking. Furthermore, her ability to jump, battle and handle soft will serve her well.Strong prospects
1. Youmdor
Reasonable prospects
2. Teahupoo
3. Josh d’Id
Feasible prospects
4. Merry Poppins
5. Awkwafina
Moderate prospects
6. Autumn Evening
7. Druid’s Altar
Negligible prospects
8. Alexei VronskyGood morning one and all. With the packing ahead of my move down south (compared to Newcastle at least) and a few other distractions, I have found myself rather too spent to do a preview of the twenty runner at Punchestown. Furthermore, the internet connection where I am is hopeless so watching videos and so forth is not possible. I did the intro, but the bulk will have to be cold, boring, sterile stats I’m afraid. I don’t think this field contains the Triumph 1-2-3 but if it does, I can carry the guilt to my grave. I can do a copy paste of the reviews from each horse’s latest run, but anything more bespoke requires more mental energy than I can muster.
The columns are winner to runner rate, RPR >107 rate, improvement rate and overall strike rate.
Punchestown used to host a Grade 3 in January which since 2005, produced five winners of the Spring Juvenile, four winners of the Winning Fair, winners of the Fairyhouse Easter, Punchestown Champion and the Fred Winter along with a Triumph runner-up. However, the Grade 3 was last run in 2013 and the maiden hurdle introduced in 2019 has thus far had a negligible impact on the season’s bigger races. This years edition looks to broadly match the race’s standard, with the newcomers looking fairly ordinary, and the strongest hurdling form coming from those who ran creditably in maiden company last month. Punchestown’s DIs of 0.97 median, 1.19 mean, makes it one of the more testing racecourses and the clear round rate of 95.73% is also lower than average. Nevertheless, hurdling debutants are generally not at a huge disadvantage and though racecourse experience can be a useful asset, those who ran at Punchestown last year did not fare particularly well in their respective contests.
Baltinglass Hill bg P J Rothwell f3-0-0 (75) 62 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Cable Bay (Iffraaj){16-a}(2.00) 3/0 Wheeler’s Wonder 1st Juvenile Claiming Hurdle, Wincanton 1993
Baltinglass Hill set off with the others but was detached before he reached the first. His jumps that were picked up by the cameras were either slow or clumsy, and he eventually finished seventy lengths behind Dazzling DarrenCall Me Rocky bg Denis Gerard Hogan f6-1-3 (79) 83 j1-0-1 (-) 119 118
Society Rock (Intikhab){2-d}(1.46) 2/1 Boy Royal 1st 4yo Hurdle, Clairefontaine 2018
Call Me Rocky was the stable’s second string behind Zoffanien on jockey bookings, and drifted from 25/1 to 40/1 in the market. His flat form, including a maiden win at Limerick and a second in a heavy ground handicap off 78 on his penultimate start, entitled him to a fair chance on his hurdling debut. However, it got off to a perilous start when he was badly baulked at the first hurdle. Nevertheless, he was able to settle into a rhythm and apart from getting close to the third, put in a solid round of jumping. Tucking behind the pursuers, he was always close enough to launch a challenge but was never able to land a telling blow and finished a length and a half behind the front pair. This was a respectable introduction and the standard of this performance is already in keeping with his flat form so he should continue to be competitive.Coltor bg D K Weld f3-1-0 (86) 83 j1-0-0 (-) 111 112
Free Eagle (Red Ransom){14-c}(0.89) 2/2 Limini 1st Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Coltor only made his racecourse debut at the end of August, but was not disgraced on his first two outings at Navan, and won on his third start at Navan over eleven furlongs on soft ground. A rare juvenile hurdler for Dermot Weld, he is bred to flourish in the sphere being a son of Free Eagle, and a relative of Limini, Call My Guest and Vintage Crop. He was not unbacked in the market and started the race sixth in the betting at 6/1. Settling well early on, he was held up in the rear and still had some nine horses ahead of him leaving the back. He made headway down the side and would reach the front of the chasing group at the elbow. He had no chance of catching the runaway winner, but in his absence, would have been a comfortable six length winner himself. His round of jumping was one of the cleanest in the field, and the only discernible flaw was where he very slightly skewed and pecked on landing at the third. The distance by which he was beaten puts a dampener on the performance from a form perspective, and he may be seen to better effect with an even sterner stamina test in due course. Nevertheless, it was a very commendable debut effort on his first run for eighty-four days, and he has set a solid foundation for his new career.Complete Fantasy bg Peter Fahey f5-0-0 (54) 70 j6-0-2 (-) 118 118
Make Believe (Night Shift){42}(1.67) 0.5 Monkeylou 3rd 3-y-o Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2018
Complete Fantasy already had the experience of five jumps races to his name and after taking a couple of runs to get the hang of things, has become an honest and consistent performer. One element to his consistency is that while he largely jumps well, he is prone to making the odd error. Despite being ridden into the flight, he was big and slow over the second, got in close to the fifth and steadied into the penultimate flight before tripping over it. Racing just behind the leaders, he was another who was close enough in the concluding stages, yet unable to find that extra gear. Complete Fantasy thoroughly deserves to win a race of his own, but he is typically liable to find one or two a little stronger than himself.Easca Peasca bg B R Hamilton f9-1-1 (74) 78
Born To Sea (Cadeaux Genereaux){1-t}(1.86) 0.5 Blues In Cee 4th Finesse Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2009
Formerly with John Oxx, trainer next to no experience in field, won soft ground ten furlong Fairyhouse handicap when last seen in October by five lengths off 65.French Asset bg Gavin Cromwell f5-0-1 (75) 80 j3-0-0 (-) 82 82
Siyouni (Galileo){9-c}(0.73) 2/1 No Heretic 3rd Novices’ Hurdle, Newbury 2016
French Asset has the flat ability and the right trainer to do well in the sphere. However, he achieved very little on his hurdling debut, and managed even less in subsequent starts. Lacking fluency on his first two outings, he was also poor here as he veered left at the first, got in close to the third, and was slow over the fourthKnight Of Malta bg Denis Gerard Hogan f9-0-3 (78) 76
War Front (Galileo){19-b}(1.21) 3/1 Thunder Rock 1st 2m7f Handicap Hurdle (118), Bangor 2008
Horses formerly trained by Aiden O’Brien have a winners to runners rate of 20.90%, and the figure drops to 18.37% for those not trained by Joseph. Still a maiden after nine starts, he ran his best race to date when third at Dundalk on his stable debut, but finished midfield in a claimer at the same venue ten days ago. Stable has had just one win from forty-one newcomers and has stronger candidates in the race.Palm Beach bc Joseph Patrick O’Brien f2-1-0 (-) 82 j2-0-2 (-) 120 124
Galileo (Anabaa){8-f}(0.77) 2/1 Armen 3rd Anniversary Hurdle (G2), Aintree 2001
Palm Beach won a reasonable maiden on the second of his flat starts and followed up with a good second to Crassus at this venue at the start of the month. His jumping was fairly novicey on that occasion but was better here apart from getting close to three out, and being slightly tired over the last. Tracking the leaders throughout, he appeared to make the winning move when jumping to the front at the penultimate flight. However, he was outjumped at the last and was never able to regain the initiative. This is the second time he has been outbattled in as many races, but does not appear to be one who shirks the duels. Crassus was a more experienced rival and the going, while heavy at the start of the month, was even more testing here and that ultimately made the difference. Palm Beach has the class and aptitude to win one of these things, and with very few miles on the clock, he may still be able to progress beyond this level.Pretorius chg Gavin Cromwell f2-0-0 DeF
Durban Thunder (Saddex){1-e}(0.54) 2/1 Pahaska 2nd 3yo Newcomers Hurdle, Auteuil 2016
Pretorius provided viewers with some comic relief during the preliminaries by exuviating his jockey when leaving the paddock, and exploring the vast expanses of Punchestown racecourse. During his adventure in the snow, he even cleared one of the bank fences and while he was not especially tidy, and was slow getting away, he negotiated it safely enough. After joining his equine chums at the start, he became bored with milling around, and galloped along the road back to the saddling enclosure. While we learned nothing of his ability as a juvenile hurdler, Pretorius was still able to demonstrate a willingness to jump large obstacles, and an intelligence which may or may not be helpful in his intended vocation.Raamez chg Gordon Elliott f8-1-0 FrF 36.5 (80.3) j1-0-0 (-) 8 7
Sea The Stars (Nayef){15-a}(1.86) 2/1 Takjreej 4th Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2012
Raamez won as a two-year-old for John Hammond and was not disgraced on his first outing for François Rohaut back in May. However, his form deteriorated in the meantime and he fetched just 20,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Held up in mid-division, he was fluent enough in the early stages but his jumping fell to pieces after getting very close to the fourth and was a spent force with half a mile to run. This performance in conjunction with his regressive flat form leaves him with much to answerSaeer chg Gordon Elliott f4-0-1 (63) 65 j1-0-0 (-) 88 87
Australia (Pivotal){6-e}(0.88) 2/1 Persian Warrior 1st Novice Hurdle, Stratford 2009
Saeer ran four times for Sir Michael Stoute, and with a flat rating of 63, joined Gordon Elliott for 9,000 guineas. An unused reserve at Leopardstown, horses leaving Freemason Lodge generally struggle to improve on their flat form and he was the least fancied of his yard’s three runners. Held up in midfield, he never looked like getting competitive and still had seven ahead of him at the distance. He usurped three of those rivals but was still beaten forty-four lengths in the end. His hurdling had been reasonable prior to a slow jump at the sixth, and the round was capped off by a pair of tired leaps at the final two flights. It was not a disgraceful introduction and wanting for fitness, he likely blew up towards the end. He might be suited by an easier test.Star Of Cashel bg J A Stack f8-3-1 (89) 95 j1-0-0 (-) 116 115
No Nay Never (Dubai Destination){11}(1.22) 2/1 Woody’s Dream 4th 4YO Hurdle, Fontwell 2009
Star Of Cashel is a rare juvenile hurdler for Fozzy Stack, but he was the highest rated flat horse coming into the race and had shown himself game in nature. He was a drifter in the market beforehand and he completely lacked fluency on his introduction to the sphere, After making a blunder at the first, he was big and slow over the second, steady and close at the third and especially the fourth, and was close again at the next two before stumbling over the last. It is a appreciable amount of class which allowed Star Of Cashel to finish as close as he did and should he become more fluent, then he might be quite useful. Particularly on a sharper circuit.Trebizond bg Henry De Bromhead j1-0-0 (-) 102 103
Golden Horn (Night Shift){4-n}(1.25) 0.5 Burns Night 1st Handicap Hurdle (83), Stratford 2013
Trebizond initially cost Godolphin 300,000 guineas as a yearling, but this close relative of Palace Pier never ran on the flat and joined Henry de Bromhead for nearly a tenth of the original price in September. Unraced newcomers generally have a poor record in the sphere. Nevertheless, Golden Horn has made a solid start as a sire of juveniles, and with Rachael Blackmore on board, Trebizond was sent off third favourite at 5/1. He was fresh early without being worryingly keen, but he made a tremendous blunder at the first and skewed in mid air at the third. The remainder of his hurdlers were taken well enough and having initially been ridden conservatively, he stayed on at one pace on the run-in to reach his best position inside the final half-furlong. Though a long way behind the winner, he will have learned a lot from this experience and can improve sufficiently to be competitive in ordinary companyTurkestan bg Mark Michael McNiff f4-0-1 (72) 74
New Approach (Seeking The Gold){3-c}(1.15) 0.5 Douman 4th 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Punchestown 2014
Left Roger Varian for 11,000gns at the Tatts August sale. Ex Varian horses have a respectable winners to runners rate of 32.14%, but a lesser improvement rate of 26.32%. The horse was twice beaten off 75 in August, but has largely ran to the same level on all four starts. Out of a half-sister to St Leger winner might help his ability to stay the trip. Trainer has not had a first time winner in the sphere.Zoffanien bg Denis Gerard Hogan f6-2-0 FrF 37.5 (85) 58 j2-0-1 (-) 116 121
Zoffany (Monsun){1-n}(0.87) 2/1 Amarak 1st 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2011
Zoffanien was a fairly useful dual winner on the flat in France and made a pleasing start to his hurdling career at this venue behind Crassus and Palm Beach. However, his jumping was nowhere near as tidy on his return as after being badly baulked at the first, was hesitant and untidy at the second and while he was better over the next few, his round concluded with a series of untidy jumps. These errors were not serious and it is unlikely his confidence will be too aversely affected in the long run. Zoffanien was unable to match his debut performance but he was still a long way clear of the remainder and he should be able to bounce back from this showing.Army Of One bf Gavin Cromwell f5-0-1 DeF GAG 63.5 (47) 67 j2-0-0 (-) 44 44
Kingston Hill (Authorized){2-n}(0.50) 2/1 Aberwind 3rd Handicap Hurdle (122), Compiegne 2020
Army Of One made her stable/hurdles debut in the Listed race at Aintree early this month, but finished ninety lengths behind the winner and would have been beaten further had they jumped more than five hurdles. Unfancied beforehand, she was always closer to last than first and made errors, some of them quite bad, at each and every hurdle.Brides Hill bf Gavin Cromwell Unraced
Dylan Thomas (Groom Dancer){5-h}(1.22) 0.5 Count Simon 1st Handicap Hurdle (133), Perth 2019
Gavin Cromwell has had nine juveniles who began the campaign unraced, with only one being a winner and that happened on the sixth start. Two half siblings performed over two and a half miles and dam is half-sister to NH sire Gamut. Yard is still out of form.Curious Bride bf Noel Meade f9-1-0 (80) 85 j1-0-1 (-) 108 113
Excelebration (Three Valleys){1-n}(3.00) 3/1 Low Sun 1st Handicap Hurdle (B,132), Galway 2018
Curious Bride had ran nine times on the flat but while initially rated 71, had began to look disappointing during the summer. However, she took advantage of a drop to 64 and ran out an easy winner of a twelve furlong Cork handicap in mid September. The runner-up has since won three times and Curious Bride was not disgraced on either of her subsequent outings at Dundalk where fifth on each occasion. The rating of 80 was the joint highest in this contest when counting her sex allowance and trainer Noel Meade won this contest in 2017. Her sire was some cause for concern as none of his thirteen juvenile hurdlers have won a race from forty-three attempts. Nevertheless, she was backed in the ring from 11/4 to 2/1 at the off and apart from reaching at the fourth and getting close to the fifth, jumped well on her debut. Another who raced prominently, she was not the quickest getting away from the last and while she put her head down on the run-in, she was unable to match the winner and was slightly worried out of the battle by her more imposing rival Autumn Evening. Notwithstanding, she was eleven lengths clear of the remainder and this progressive filly likely has more to offer in the coming weeks and months.Lady Kapalua bf J P Dempsey j3-0-0 (-) 67 66
Maxios (Champs Elysees){1-l}(0.76) 3/2 Hills Of Aran 2nd Rendlesham Hurdle (G2), Haydock 2009
Lady Kapalua had been quite ignominious on her two starts to date coming at Roscommon in August, and Fairyhouse in December. Nevertheless, though she never left the rear and was beaten fifty-eight lengths, she posted her best round of jumping, and her best performance to date.Poetica bf John Joseph Hanlon f6-0-1 (54) 61 j3-0-0 (-) 27 34
Lope De Vega (Motivator){10}(1.22) 0.5 Lilypad 1st Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (98), Uttoxeter 2020
Poetica’s first two runs over hurdles could be ignored as her saddle slipped at Cork, and he was hampered and unseated early on at Leopardstown. Starting at 125/1, she was in the rear throughout, was very steady and slow at all of the hurdles where she was picked up by the camera, and finished seventy-three lengths last of seventeen.RESERVES
Anno Maximo bg David Harry Kelly f6-0-1 (62) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 36 35
Maxios (Singspiel){7-f}(0.76) 2/2 Aachen 2nd Veterans’ Chase Final (146), Sandown 2016
Anno Maximo was second off a mark of 60 in a firm ground Bath handicap on his penultimate start for Micheal Bell, but his breeding suggested that he could do reasonably well over hurdles. However, he was unfancied in the betting and made minor errors without ever escaping the rear.Hisdaywillcome blg Thomas Cooper Unraced
Dragon Pulse (Lucky Guest){1-e}(1.22) 0.5 Niven 1st 1m7f Handicap Chase (122), Catterick 2020
Thomas Cooper has yet to have a first time winner in the division and his three racecourse debutants were all soundly beaten.Master Rocco chg P C O’Connor f13-0-1 (52) 59 j1-0-0 (-) 81 80
Dawn Approach (Shirocco){14-c}(0.68) 2/2 Mourad 2nd Champion 4YO Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2009
Master Rocco finished last in a claimer on his final start for Jane Chapple-Hyam and was completely unfancied here. Taking a keen hold early, he pulled himself to the front which is where he remained until the third last wherever he faded tamely. His jumping was poor over the first two flights but he settled into a rhythm and hurdled cleanly for the most part. Though he was beaten a long way, he was the best placed of the front runners and if he learns to settle better then he may be able to do himself justice in lesser company.Other notes
Gordon Elliott has had seven runners in this race with the best placed coming fifth. Fozzy Stack trained the winner in 2019 while Noel Meade saddled the runner up.Might do an arbitrary prospects list if I wake up early enough and have enough time remaining for the journey prep… Which is no certainty. Palm Beach and Coltor currently head the betting, and I would be more inclined to make the latter the strong prospect.
Hi BH
As always an enjoyable read.
was able to run a rule over the form and with Autumn Evenings run at the weekend put
Curious Bride up as a win bet on my “form in the book…” thread.
Hope the move in is going ok.Just coming across this thread now and thread doesn’t really seem a big enough word! Extraordinary work, extremely impressive and bearing in mind the troubles you’ve mentioned, it is amazing that you’ve been able to keep producing these updates. I will be reading them closely, and thank you. Hope 2021 picks up for you.
Hi Sam
I’m glad you were able to get Curious Bride. With Noel Meade’s record and the Autumn Evening formline, it looks pretty obvious in hindsight :D
Thanks for your well wishes by the way. Nothing is set in stone just yet, but I am more optimistic than otherwise at this juncture.
Cheers Pandora
Given how much fun I have had with this thread, 2020 was still pretty decent all things considered. Granted, there were a couple of things I really could have done without, but if 2021 is better then I will be very pleased!Been a very busy week but have got a few reviews done along with the preview for tomorrow’s exciting curtain raiser at Ascot.
KEMPTON 9th January
Preview review
The first three were feasible or better on the prospects list, but in effectively the reverse order with strong prospect Kentucky Hardboot disappointing. The latter began to look in trouble before the turn for home and this is not the first time he failed to deliver do it is likely that he is given to inconsistency. The strengths for the winners case were notable, although they were dampened by his temperament which was less evident here. Tinnahalla took a while to settle but his jumping was better than at Newbury while Table Mountain ran a creditable debut without having the pace to be fully effective.Race review
Historically, this contest is one of the weaker held at the venue and while above average in the grand scheme, it is not a prolific source of quality juveniles. With Bannister running at Chepstow, the race was effectively a maiden contest. Nevertheless, the was some useful hurdling form along with a few pricey recruits from the flat. It was one of these recruits which ran out a promising winner and the second and third pair, who were clear of the rest, were one who ran with promise and another who brought a high flat rating respectively. There is also encouragement from a time angle as the winner past the post under a second slower than the concluding 0-140 handicap with the latter contest having a stronger early gallop. The morning favourite had disappointed but overall, the finishing order and distances were appropriate and there were few alarming errors so the form looks predominantly reliable.Sage Advice had been progressive in his six runs for Joseph G Murphy in Ireland, winning a soft ground ten furlong Cork maiden on his penultimate start, before finishing third in a Tipperary handicap off 80. After fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale whereafter he underwent a wind operation. This in conjunction with his free sweating antics on the flat gave cause for concern ahead of his hurdling debut. Nevertheless, he attracted support throughout the day and this momentum was sustained in the ring where he was sent off as 7/4 favourite. Though he was certainly keen over the first half mile, he was not lathered in sweat and he settled adequately for the bulk of the contest. Tracking the leaders throughout, he moved into strong contention turning for home and shared the lead jumping the penultimate flight. After being shaken up on the run to the last, he jumped it with an advantage of a couple of lengths which was comfortably extended to half a dozen by the time he passed the line under a motionless Sam Twiston-Davies. Apart from being rather large and untidy at the first, and rather skewing at two out when diving to his right, Sage Advice jumped nicely for a hurdling debutant and with his superiority value for a few more lengths than the winning margin, this was a highly promising introduction. 126
Tinnahalla achieved fair form as a maiden for Jamie Osborne, and his being related to Thomas Hobson, Drifter and Celestial Halo made him an interesting recruit to the division. On his hurdling debut at Newbury, his inability to settle followed him from the flat and his jumping suffered as a result. He was once again very keen here and was still taking a hold deep into the race, although his jumping had improved as apart from getting close to the first, stumbling at two out, and steadying into the last, he round was cleaner for the experience. Leading from the outset, he afforded himself a breather during the middle stages of the contest before progressively increasing the tempo towards the business end of the contest. Though he was caught at the penultimate flight and left in the wake of the winner from there, he still had enough to repel the challenge of the third placed newcomer. Along with improved jumping, he also progressed from a form perspective to post a new career best effort. If he is able to settle better then a race of this nature would be well within his scope. 117
Table Mountain won one of her seven starts on the flat for Andrew Balding, and her official rating of 91 is the highest brought to the division by a filly this term. By Phoenix Reach and from the family of Ranch Hand, Scorned and Desert Quest, she is bred to do well in the disciple and was well spoken of by the trainer who acquired her for 57,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale. However, despite the non-runner, she doubled in price throughout the day having opened as the 5/2 favourite. Furthermore, her jumping was the least fluent of the leading three as she hopped and trailed her legs through the first, reached for the fourth, bunny-hopped the next and lost momentum at three out when steady and slow. Her cause was not helped by being squeezed on landing at the penultimate flight, but having raced prominently throughout, she was too one paced in the closing stages to make a real bearing on the contest. This was some way short of her best flat form, but it was not a debut without promise. She has the ability to win over this trip, although she may be of more interest with experience over a longer distance. 109
Ray’s The One twice finished runner-up on the flat for a Michael Bell whose graduates fare well in the division. He earned a rating of 68, which is usually adequate for the sphere, although the 9,000 guineas tag is fairly inexpensive for his type. Held up in touch, he was another who was keen early and his wandering into the flights were exacerbated by several untidy jumps. Ray’s The One was prone to hanging left on the flat but while there were traces of this habit over some of his hurdles, it would not be a pressing concern for the time being. He had found himself outpaced halfway through the contest and unable to do much more than keep on up the straight to take fourth from a fading rival. Though rather limited in his ability, this son of Mount Nelson (Penhill), out of a Bob Back mare, has enough scope to find some success over longer trips. 109
Kentucky Hardboot came close to causing an upset on his hurdling debut at this venue and his last time out second at Newbury was the strongest jumps form brought into this contest. He had Tinnahalla nearly nine lengths behind him there and having lost a shoe in the process, was strongly backed to break his duck. However, his confidence appeared to be affected as he gave the first plenty of air, got in close and pecked on landing at the third, was close again at the fifth and was slow and possibly tired going over two out. These errors were not enough to be of such detriment to his performance and he was already travelling uneasily with five furlongs left to race. He was the best part of ten pounds below his best here, but there was no reason for the ground to affect his performance and there were no vet reports after the race. Given that he was disappointing on his penultimate outing at Huntingdon, it is possible that Kentucky Hardboot is disposed to inconsistency. 107
More Than A Prince completed his two-year-old career with a win in a Brighton nursery off 73, but he failed to reach the frame in five outings during 2020 for either Richard Hannon or Richard Hughes. His stamina was not assured ahead of his hurdling debut and neither was his temperament as he had been unsuccessfully tried in different headgear on recent flat outings. Drifting from 18/1 in the morning to 50/1 at the off, More Than A Prince expended plenty of energy early on and his hopping rather than jumping exacerbated the stamina concerns. He was a spent force before the turn for home and well beaten when sprawling on landing at the penultimate flight. Tailed off and the last to finish, there was little encouragement to be drawn from this introduction. 76
Son Of Oz showed next to nothing in terms of aptitude or ability on his racecourse debut at Warwick last month and he was completely unfancied to fair better here. Once again, he lacked fluency in the rear and was pulled up before three out. 0
Epsom Dreamer beat just one of her seventeen rivals home in a pair of all-weather contests and was tailed off on each occasion. She jumped poorly in the rear and was fairing worse than Son Of Oz when pulling up before the same flight. Epsom Dreamer has since finished a detached last in a jumpers bumper. 0
Leylak 9/1/2021 Wincanton 1m7½f Maiden Hurdle
Leylak began his career in June and ran three times in maiden company for Michael Halford without breaching the first five. Nevertheless, he shown a decent amount of promise and this translated into a creditable first time effort when third at Newbury last month. The fourth and the fifth had since finished second and won respectively and Leylak was solid in the market going up against older rivals. However, while he jumped well for a newcomer at Newbury, he made numerous errors here as he was low at half of the hurdles along with wandering and steadying on the approach to a few and making a particularly bad blunder at three out. Keen early and racing prominently throughout, he was ridden turning for home and found himself outpaced on the straight while running green at times. Though no match for the front two, he regained third place on the run-in which is to his credit as he was reported to have bled from the nose. This performance did not quite his Newbury effort, and he still needs to mature and improve on his jumping. Notwithstanding, he is still a promising type and if none the worse following these excursions, he would be of interest in ordinary company following a break. 114CHEPSTOW 9th January
Preview review
Yggdrasil was largely made the strong prospect as a result of his potential rather than the form he had in the book. In his and tearaway leader Bannister’s absence, the prospects list will have matched the finishing order. Adagio had much the strongest tangible form, Nassalam had shown plenty of potential but was overestimated by the markets in comparison to Adagio due to connections. This pair finished a long way clear of the remainder headed by Houx Gris who was a big drifter through the day, with the rest of the field were covered by just over five lengths.Race review
Historically, the Finale hurdle has a potent history of producing top class horses and while this season’s edition perhaps appeared to lack obvious star quality, it was no worse than an average renewal and barring Monmiral, the field assembled was about as strong as possible for British trained horses. The front pair had the strongest form coming into the race and finished clear of the remainder. Their superiority on the day comes with caveats as the jumping outside of this duo was substandard and several were subject to factors detrimental to their performances. Nevertheless, the winning time was a compelling one as it was the fastest set in the contest this century along with being four and a half seconds faster than the novices’ hurdle and seven and a half seconds quicker than the mares’ handicap. Compared by seconds per furlong, the race was slower than the standard time by the chases on the card, but was much the quickest of those run over hurdles which suggests the ground was slower than on the chase track. Furthermore, while the time was likely exaggerated by Bannister’s tearaway exploits, the final two furlongs were still quicker than on the other hurdle races over the distance on the day. As such, while the first and second were the only particiants who ran to their best, they should continue to hold their own in the season’s top juvenile contests.Adagio has improved with each outing since his introduction to the division in early November. Following a win at Warwick, he was quickly tuned out for Grade Two at Cheltenham where he found only Duffle Coat too good. His jumping had, at times, been a cause for concern on his first two starts, but he was decent when making a winning return to Cheltenham and apart from being untidy at the second, posted another good round here. Held up in the rear, he made steady headway along the back and was well in contention turning for home. Tracking the leaders during the first half of the straight, he challenged for the lead on the long run between the final two flights and was a couple of lengths to the good at the last. Though he rather reached at the hurdle, he was over very swiftly and it was much the better jump of the leading pair and though his advantage was not extended on the short run-in, he was always comfortably holding his rival. This performance represented a new career best to the tune of a good ten pounds and it marks Adagio out as a leading juvenile hurdler. It would not match Monmiral’s performance at Doncaster and unless Duffle Coat has stagnated since winning at Cheltenham in November, it does not indicate that a reversal of form is an obvious potentiality. Furthermore, while Monmiral is likely to bypass Cheltenham, the likes of French Aseel, Youmdor and Teahupoo have already proven themselves in the heavy ground which would galvanize Adagio’s chances. Notwithstanding, while he is unlikely to prove as effective in the Spring ground, he has fully earned a place in the Triumph hurdle and should the ground have some give, he will not be a pushover. 137
Nassalam had been burdened with a reputation of considerable substance despite doing little to warrant same. His debut second in a newcomers race at Clairefontaine in late June was his strongest piece of form to date, and all that was learned from his two Fontwell outings is that he can outrun a tree, and is not the most efficient hurdler. Nevertheless, he was the shortest priced runner in this line-up for the Triumph hurdle, and was sent off even money favourite here. Initially tucked in third or fourth place, he soon led the pursuit of the tearaway leader. As the long time leader was caught on entering the straight, he made light work of his rival for the lead and would jump the penultimate flight with a length’s advantage. He was unable to match Adagio’s pace on the run to the last, but the pair pulled twenty lengths clear of the remainder. Nassalam was more liable to jump big and left handed at Fontwell and although his inclination to dive left was less pronounced here, he maintained his habit of hopping over his hurdles. While he is unlikely to make many blunders, it is not a style that is conducive to the swift jumping necessary to thrive at the top level in this division. Given his size, he may eventually find more success over fences, although as he is fairly precociously bred, his window of opportunity may be a short one. This was still a high quality performance and there is scope for further improvement. However, there are likely to be one or two too strong for him in the very best races and a switch to a sounder surface is unlikely to boost his performances. 135
Houx Gris fetched €200,000 at the Arqana Deauville Autumn Sale following a four race career in France with Sylvain Dehez. A winner on his racecourse debut in an AQPS maiden, he was second in the same sphere before finishing twenty-one lengths third on his hurdling debut at Auteuil in late September. The following month, he prevailed by a neck on his return to the venue, finishing nine lengths ahead of a horse who subsequently third in a Listed contest. Two of Paul Nicholls’ three previous runners in this contest had won, and the Ditcheat trainer also used this event to introduce French recruits Tatabeb, Sang Bleu and Caid Du Berlais. However, Houx Gris was not strongly fancied ahead of his British debut, drifting from 11/4 in the morning to 13/2 at flagfall. Racing prominently amongst the peleton, he was untidy at the first and not a model of perfect fluency at the next three. Nevertheless, he generally jumped adequately enough and jumped three out with a share of the lead. He appeared to be travelling well enough approaching the penultimate jump, however, he steadied on the approach and barely lifted his legs as he flattened the hurdle and lost considerable momentum. From thereon, he faded tamely and it is likely that he wanted for fitness. It was a respectably performance nevertheless and he should come on for the experience, although he has already met defeat three times in his short career and is unlikely to threaten for top honours in the division. 115
Elham Valley was seemingly exposed after a nine race flat career where his latest win came in a seller, and his two outings that followed saw him well held in handicaps. Nonetheless, he validated strong market support when making a successful hurdling debut at Sandown ahead of a subsequent winner. His jumping was not especially fluent there and he also made a series of errors on this occasion as he was big over the first, got in close to the second and fifth, flattened the fourth and stumbled badly at three out. He was also quite keen in the early stages and while he was close enough going into the straight, the aforementioned error put paid to any remaining chance. Though his Sandown performance marked a career best, this effort closer resembles his flat ability and his new rating of 125 is a tough one to justify. 110
Yggdrasil was the most lightly raced runner in the field having finished third behind Elham Valley on his sole outing to date. It was not a debut without promise as his jumping improved during the contest and his faltering during the closing stages was down to his inexperience. Furthermore, he was the first preference of the stable’s two original entries with the other falling when holding every chance against Heross Du Seuil at Kempton. However, he was steady and/or untidy at most of his flights and was in trouble when the tempo increased towards the end of the back straight. Nevertheless, he ran the final two furlongs quicker than anything outside of the front pair which indicates that while he can improve with experience, he will likely be suited by a longer trip. 108
Mr Shady had run eighteen times on the flat, picking up a Lingfield handicap last January, before switching his attentions to hurdles in November at Ludlow. There he was a creditable nineteen length fourth and he posted a new career best when last seen at Wetherby where he was second of thirteen in a maiden contest. His good jumping was instrumental in that performance, but it still left him with something to find in this company and his being keen and making a couple of errors did not help his cause. He was not disgraced in finishing just over thirty lengths behind the winner and his mark of 117 is workable, particularly if returned to a sounder surface. 105
Pyramid Place failed to score in four outings for John Gosden, but he made a promising start to his hurdling career when a close second at Lingfield and did not have to improve to comfortably take a weak Bangor contest when last seen two months prior. However, he was not able to get away with being as keen as he was in this company and a few slow jumps early on did not allow him the opportunity to leave the rear. Nevertheless, while predictably outclassed, he ran no worse than his official mark of 104 which is reasonably generous based on his Bangor effort. If he learns to settle better then he should be able to find more success at his level. 105
Bannister won a weak Southwell hurdle in early September before twice racing in France without disgracing himself. However, he went off far too quickly for his own good here, was already tired at the fifth, and had nothing left when headed before three out. Apart from getting too close to the second, he jumped respectably and has the class to be competitive in reasonable company. However, it is imperative that he learns to settle. 0
Sweet Will 12/1/2021 Fairyhouse 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (95)
Sweet Will failed to get competitive in four outings in maiden company, and though his jumping has improved recently, he had yet to run to within half a stone of 95 and this four furlong step up in trip did not suggest that a better effort was imminent. Though the yard had been out of form, he quietly supported before the off. Tucked in just behind the leader, he jumped well throughout apart from being slightly untidy at the second. However, he was beginning to get pushed along four furlongs out and was losing his position turning for home whereafter he was allowed to come home in his own time once the race had passed him. He has since been dropped a pound but that is unlikely to aid his cause. 73ASCOT PREVIEW
The Aurelius Hurdle, named after the St Leger winner who would go on to win a steeplechase at Ascot’s newly established National Hunt circuit, was first held in 1968 where Banquo would reach the frame in both this and the Triumph. Paddy’s Return won both races during the nineties and the contest was discontinued with something of a bang in 2003 as it was taken by Tamarinbleu who would win the Clarance House Chase four seasons later. Incidentally, it was on the 2008 card that this juvenile contest was established. One of two juveniles held at Ascot, the other being the handicap towards the end of the season, it has since produced a Triumph winner in Zaynar, an almost Triumph winner in Goshen, Triumph placed Top Notch and Grandouet, along with future Ascot Chase winner Balder Succes. Its most notable winner came in the first renewal won by Binocular, who is the last hurdling debutant to win this contest. This year’s edition features only moderate hurdling form, but a few of the newcomers have the potential to be useful types so this particular trend may well be bucked tomorrow. A galloping track with decent drainage, Ascot still has below average winning DIs, although this may largely be due to class and the clear round rate of 98% is one of the highest in the country. With all ten odds-on favourites since 2008/09 winning and a median SP of 2/1, Ascot is not a hotbed of large surprises in the division. The going is currently soft, heavy around Swinley Bottom, and there is no more than light rain forecast in the interim.Blue Slate grg Barry Brennan f8-0-1 (47) 58 j3-1-0 (110) 105 100
Alhebayeb (Halling){7-f}(1.15) 3/2 Eddiemaurice 1st Handicap Hurdle (122), Ascot 2016
One of two with hurdling experience in the field, Blue Slate also has winning form, courtesy of a success in a Leicester maiden where solid jumping saw him land a 50/1 upset. However, that contest looked decidedly moderate beforehand and the subsequent form has not raised its esteem. Furthermore, Blue Slate’s outings prior to his win saw him well beaten in selling company, and he jumped poorly when completely outclassed at Cheltenham last time. There is a level for Blue Slate, but it is leagues below this contest.Casa Loupi chg Gary Moore f10-1-3 (69) 75
Casamento (Auction House){14}(2.20) 3/1 Capitalist 5th Juvenile Claiming Hurdle, Catterick 1999
Prior to 2019, Gary Moore had seven runners in this contest without any reaching a place. Beat The Judge would finish third in 2019, and last season’s renewal was taken very cosily by Goshen. The master of Cisswood Stabes saddles two here, the first being his 69 rated Casa Loupi. Though already a consistent type, he found improvement for the application of cheekpieces and his last four runs have resulted in a win and three seconds – two of those by a neck or less. His flat success came on his penultimate outing in a twelve furlong Kempton handicap off 65 and the runner-up, who was a shade unlucky, has won his next two starts. Casa Loupi was last seen nineteen days ago at Lingfield where he was very wide around the final bend and failed by a neck to reach the winner. His trainer entitles him to due respect, although there is less encouragement on breeding as while Casamento has a fair record in the division, his overall strike rate is just 8.26% and stronger stallions are represented in this line-up. There is little cause for optimism on the damline as the closest relative was very moderate, and Auction House’s influence in the sphere is negligible. The cheekpieces are left off for his hurdling debut.Hooroo bg Olly Murphy f14-1-3 (63) 70
Hallowed Crown (Dubawi){1-t}(1.18) 2/2 Lando Blue 2nd Handicap Hurdle (Listed,123), Clairefontaine 2016
Olly Murphy registered his first Grade 1 success as a trainer last season, and his stable has been in good form recently. However, while he has saddled winners in the division, his overall strike rate is just 6%. Tomorrow sees him introduce Hooroo who was a 10,000 guineas purchase from Karl Burke at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. A winner of a Nottingham nursery at the seventh time of asking, Hooroo broadly ran to the same level in seven outings during 2020 while showing some tenacity from the front without winning. He is likely to handle the trip and ground, and Sean Bowen has won two from seven for the in-form trainer. Hallowed Crown has had a winner from his first crop in Noel Meade’s Jeff Kidder, and there are also some minor French performers on the damline. However, Hooroo will need to improve against a few of these and is probably exposed after fourteen outings.Punctuation bg Charlie Longsdon f8-1-3 (83) 91
Dansili (Galileo){12-c}(0.86) 3/1 King Carew 2nd Handicap Chase (Listed,120), Cork 2003
Andrew Balding had seventeen three-year-olds offered at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, with his top lot going to Saudi Arabia for 185,000 guineas. The next best seller was Punctuation whose bid of 110,000 guineas diverted him from the desert to near Chipping Norton. Former residents of Kingsclere win their fair share of juvenile hurdles, although little over a quarter will improve for the switch between codes. Balding has been responsible for seven juveniles who fetched more than 100,000 guineas and while three were winners, only Flaxen Flare could be described as pattern class. Charlie Longsdon has a respectable winners to runners rate of 29.03%, and Punctuation is set be his most expensive public purchase by some margin, with the next priciest being dual winner Paintball at 70,000 guineas in 2010. Punctuation, as a racehorse rather than a commodity, made his debut last January when a head second to To Nathaniel in a twelve furlong novice stakes at Kempton. The following month, he took a course and distance maiden by eleven lengths from a fairly moderate field. He was stepped up to pattern company for his next two starts at Newmarket and Ascot, but was well beaten on each occasion. The remainder of his four runs came in fourteen furlong, class two handicaps at Haydock, Sandown and twice at York, during which time his mark dropped from 89 to 83. Though he had a questionable headcarriage when last seen in October, he has generally looked quite straightforward although there may be a preference for firmer ground. Dansili has a strong 35.14% winners to runners rate in the division, and Galileo is a stronger damsire than sire. The dam is a half-sister to a pair of minor jumps winners as well as successful national hunt sire Kalanisi. Along with this entry, Punctuation was also declared for the Chatteris Fen at Huntingdon, and a Catterick juvenile, both of which would be abandoned. Quite whether this is indicative of the stable’s expectations, or its desire to get a run into him is a matter of speculation, but his flat rating is well above average for a recruit into the division. Brian Hughes is an interesting booking, although the stable is not in the strongest form at the moment and only one of its twenty-nine juvenile hurdlers has won first time out.Salamanca School bg Warren Greatrex f7-1-3 (65) 76
Rock Of Gibraltar (Pennekamp){9-e}(1.91) 1/1 Sofia’s Rock 3rd Listed Hurdle, Kempton 2019
Habitual front-runner Salamanca School ran seven times on the flat for Mark Johnston, winning a seller as a two-year-old, and was last seen finishing thirteen lengths behind Elham Valley when runner-up in another seller at Goodwood at the end of August. Between those outings, he competed in three handicaps, but was well beaten on each occasion and his mark dropped from 79 to 65 during 2020. Joining Warren Greatrex for £12,500 at the Goffs September sale, he is with a yard that boasts a decent winners to runners ratio of 28%, and a healthy improvement rate of 52.63%. Rock Of Gibraltar gets his fair share of winners but his improvement rate of 32.61% is the lowest in the field and both sire and trainer have below par overall strike rates. Salamanca School is a full brother to the useful Sofia’s Rock, and Danny Whizzbang also appears on the damline at 2/3. Nevertheless, while there are positive in the profile and the ground should not be a problem, the regressive flat form and the wind operation prior to his sale at Goffs are not particularly encouraging.Stepney Causeway bg Dan Skelton f4-1-1 (85) 89
New Approach (Noverre){7-a}(0.67) 2/1 Park’s Prodigy 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Sedgefield 2007
A winner of a Chelmsford novices stakes on the second of two outings as a two-year-old, Stepney Causeway ran to a career best on the latest of two three-year-old outings when a neck second in a seven furlong handicap at Leicester in July. The front two were nearly three lengths clear of the remainder, and the winner has developed into a good handicapper who ran in a listed contest at Meydan on Thursday. However, Stepney Causeway did not appear to commit himself to the battle and his Chelmsford win over a mile was the furthest he raced during four runs for Michael Bell. Those formerly trained by Michael Bell have a decent 30.51% winners to runners rate in juvenile hurdles, and Dan Skelton accounts for three of those winners including the highly talented Allmankind who runs in the same colours. While Stepney Causeway has yet to have his stamina tested, New Approach has a fine winners to runners rate of 33.33% and the damline features winning jumpers Tamarillo Grove (2/2) and Dont Take Me Alive (2/2) along with Grade 1 winners Contraband (3/2) and Royal Gait (4/2). The yard has good figures across the board in the division as well as a first time out strike rate of 36.84% with flat recruits rated 70 and above.Tenfold bg Gary Moore f6-0-2 (74) 80
Born To Sea (Montjeu){13-c}(0.82) 3/1 Darasim 2nd Novices’ Hurdle, Cheltenham 2005
Gary Moore’s second runner is rated five pounds superior to his stablemate, and has a more compelling sire for the discipline. Tenfold’s best effort on the flat came when second of three in a fourteen furlong Yarmouth handicap back in June where he split a pair of subsequent winners. However, he pulled too hard for his own good when a beaten favourite next time at Bath before weakening tamely on soft ground at Windsor on his final start for Martyn Meade. Subsequently sold for £21,000 at the Goffs UK Silver Yearling Sale in October, he finished midfield in a Lingfield novice stakes last month where he once again failed to settle. The Born To Sea, Montjeu cross is a positive one on paper, and the damline is not short on minor winners. However, Tenfold will likely prefer a sounder surface and his tendency to pull exacerbates the difficult task facing him in this company.Tritonic chg Alan King 9-2-3 (99) 106
Sea The Moon (Selkirk){4-r}(1.13) 4/3 Le Breuil 1st National Hunt Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2019
Alan King has won this contest with his last three runners. Balder Succes scored in 2012, Gibralfaro in 2016, and Nayati two years later. His representative this season is the much touted Tritonic who will be his trainer’s highest rated flat recruit since Mount Helicon in 2008. Alan King is also the strongest trainer represented in this field and his statistics, winners to runners 50.65%, RPR 108 and above 58.44%, improvement rate of 57.94% and overall strike rate of 23.65% are all of a high standard. Furthermore, his already fine first time out strike rate of 29.11% increases to 48.15% with flat recruits rated 80 and above. After finishing fifth in the Zetland Stakes, Tritonic began his three-year-old campaign off a mark of 95 which he carried to second place on his seasonal reappearance at Royal Ascot on soft ground. Though he failed to win in four subsequent outings, he finished second in a listed race at Hamilton, was not disgraced in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer, was runner-up in a Yarmouth handicap off 99, and just under six lengths fourth of seventeen in the Old Rowley Cup off the same mark. Neither of Sea The Moon’s juveniles this term have found much success, but his first crop boasted three winners including the talented Allmankind. The damline, which is predominantly American based, is rather threadbare of jumpers prior to Le Breuil at 4/3, and Selkirk’s broodmares have a moderate record in the sphere. Though he has been ever present in the Triumph lists since the summer, Tritonic’s participation in the sphere was contingent on a gelding operation and a successful round of schooling. Both of these prophesies have been fulfilled and with his trainer, flat quality, and proven ability on soft ground, he makes for an intriguing recruit to the game.Vulcan bg Dr Richard Newland f11-2-3 (87) 93
Free Eagle (Pivotal){6-e}(1.22) 0.5 Quids In 1st Maiden Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2017
Though he failed to win on his first eight outings, Vulcan was a largely progressive type and after going down by a neck in a mile handicap at Sandown, he broke his maiden off 73 in a soft ground mile contest at Haydock in mid September. Later that month, he doubled his tally at the same venue when defying top weight in an apprentice handicap by seven lengths. While he had shown a tendency to hang under pressure, predominantly to his right, he still appears to be genuine in a battle. His final start for Harry Dunlop came when a staying on fourth at Nottingham, after which he was sold for 170,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, the highest price paid in the UK for a juvenile this season. Former inmates of Harry Dunlop’s have a solid 29.63% winners to runners rate, and Richard Newland’s already strong record has been boosted this term with wins from Orchestral Rain and recent Kempton scorer Sage Advice. However, the aforementioned was the last winner for the yard who has had twelve subsequent runners without success. Free Eagle is having his first crop of juveniles and has made a very respectable start with two winners from seven, and as well as being a half-brother to winning juvenile Quids In, Vulcan is also distantly related to Elusive Dream at 4/2. While his tendency to hang is of some concern, and his trainer could be in better form, Vulcan remains a compelling recruit and is capable of giving Tritonic something to think about.Sarceaux grf Alexandra Dunn f3-0-0 FrF 30.5 (67.1) 62 j1-0-0 (-) 85 92
Rajsaman (Elusive City){16-g}(0.67) 0.5 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
The other runner with jumps experience in the field, Sarceaux made her hurdling debut at Kempton almost four weeks ago. A winner of the second of three starts on the flat in France, she was sent off completely unfancied at 150/1. Setting off fairly prominently, she was untidy at the first two and steadied into the fifth and sixth before losing her position on the turn for home. Though it was not a debut outing without promise, she may have a preference for firmer ground and nothing she has achieved thus far suggests that she is capable of making an impact at this level.Strong prospects
1. Tritonic
Reasonable prospects
2. Vulcan
3. Stepney Causeway
Feasible prospects
4. Punctuation
Moderate prospects
5. Hooroo
6. Casa Loupi
7. Tenfold
8. Salamanca School
Negligible prospects
9. Blue Slate
10. Sarceaux
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