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The juvenile hurdlers are back on Tuesday and after an absence of a couple of years (several if you discount the ones aborted early on), so too is this thread. A spell on the injury list along with a disinclination to work during lockdown meant that I had plenty of time to compile a fairly comprehensive spreadsheet of every juvenile hurdler to have ran since the 2012/13 season. Although I would like to believe that I didn’t completely waste my time and am happy with my body fat percentage being in the low teens rather than single digits, there is a danger that the research is completely misleading and ultimately useless. For example, my research suggests that Kalanisi is a hopeless sire of juvenile hurdlers given that not one of his ten representatives have either picked up a juvenile hurdle or achieved an RPR greater than 107 during this period. Facts on the other hand will show that Kalanisi is now a prominent national hunt sire on the basis of his success as a sire of juveniles – in particular Katchit, Barizan and Alaivan. Furthermore, when looking for unheralded sleeping NH stallions whose progeny improve for the switch to jumps, I discovered that the most promising prospects are predominantly dead, standing abroad or are prohibitively expensive due to their ability to sire two year-olds.
Nevertheless, in the realm of juvenile hurdling where publicly available information is decidedly threadbare, imperfect evidence is better than none whatsoever. Particularly as the genetic attributes necessary for success in juvenile hurdling tend to be specific as there is a demand for both strength and precocity.
While an exhaustive publication of all of the findings might well be in the spirit of a comprehensive research thread, the utility of same is difficult to justify given the bulk and diversity of the information. As such, it would be more appropriate to apply the findings on a race by race basis. Nevertheless, in the meantime here are a few top-tens for the purposes of fun. Not all of the horses listed will have juvenile runners this season.
Top Ten Sires of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by individual winners
Mastercraftsman (21)
Authorized (20)
Cape Cross (13)
Teofilo (13)
Jeremy (13)
Champs Elysees (13)
Pour Moi (11)
Sir Percy (11)
Galileo (10)
Soldier Of Fortune (9)Top Ten Sires of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of winners to runners (10 or more runners)
Soldier Of Fortune (64)
Maxios (55)
Nathaniel (47)
Pour Moi (46)
Dansili (44)
Motivator (43)
Kapgarde (43)
Sea The Stars (42)
Most Improved (42)
Sinndar (41)Top Ten Sires of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of horses who recorded an RPR 35lbs greater than the lower of either their last recorded OR on the flat or highest recorded RPR prior to their hurdles debut (10 or more qualifiers)
Authorized (80)
Pour Moi (80)
Aussie Rules (73)
Haafhd (71)
Footstepsinthesand (67)
Canford Cliffs (65)
Fast Company (65)
Sinndar (64)
Montjeu (64)
Casamento (62)Top Ten Trainers of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by individual winners
Alan King (51)
Gordon Elliott (49)
Paul Nicholls (44)
W P Mullins (38)
Nicky Henderson (34)
Gary Moore (27)
Dan Skelton (25)
Brian Ellison (19)
David Pipe (18)
John Ferguson (17)Top Ten Trainers of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of winners to runners (10 or more runners)
Nicky Henderson (68)
Stuart Edmunds (64)
W P Mullins (56)
Alan King (53)
Paul Nicholls (50)
John Ferguson (50)
Dr Richard Newland (50)
Neil King (43)
John Quinn (42)
Harry Whittington (42)Top Ten Trainers of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of horses who recorded an RPR 35lbs greater than the lower of either their last recorded OR on the flat or highest recorded RPR prior to their hurdles debut (10 or more qualifiers)
Gavin Cromwell (81)
W P Mullins (80)
Sheena West (73)
Mrs John Harrington (73)
Noel Meade (71)
Neil King (71)
Philip Kirby (69)
Neil Mulholland (67)
Harry Whittington (67)
Mick Channon (64)Top Ten thoroughbred families of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by individual winners
14-c (26)
13-c (24)
5-h (23)
9-e (21)
21-a (21)
1-w (20)
9-c (20)
8-f (19)
1-k (19)
2-f (18)Top ten damsires of juvenile hurdlers who achieved RPRs of 108 or greater by percentage (10 or more runners)
Mansonnien (70)
Turgeon (50)
Lear Fan (50)
Poliglote (46)
Highest Honor (45)
Diesis (44)
Anabaa (43)
Alzao (43)
King’s Theatre (42)
Linamix (40)The RPR figure of 108 was chosen as it would put its achievers in the 75th percentile. I could continue with these top tens ad nauseum but the season will be over before I get through them all. That said, if there are any specific requests using the aforementioned parameters then I will try to accommodate them. I also have stats for the 1268 horses who were sold at public auction as horses-in-training prior to being sent over hurdles. The most interesting findings were that based on extrapolations using mean figures, £119,860 will get you a 108.56 rated juvenile, £49,459 will get you a 97.9 rated juvenile and £3,014 will get you a 54.2 rated plodder. Also, there’s a 99.95% chance that you will not recover the sales price through prize money.
So yeah, hopefully this thread will be fun, informative and enduring. I will try to keep it going with race news, previews and musings where applicable and freely welcome any and all contributions and feedback.
The first juvenile hurdle this season takes place at Newton Abbot instead of the usual
HeavenHexham. While I am sure all of these horses are both lovely and loved, the standard of form brought into the race is low even by early-season standards. The highest official flat rating going in is 61 which assuming a fluent transition between codes would still only equate to 96 over hurdles. As such, the race will probably not take too much winning. Nevertheless, a race is only as interesting as the beholder deems it to be and by virtue of its kicking off the season, is one that I am looking forward to.American Dreamer bg J Osborne 6-0-0 (40) 41
Fountain Of Youth (Indesatchel){22-d} 4/1 Empire Park 9 wins over hurdles between 1999 and 2003
American Dreamer has had six starts on the flat, the best of which coming when finishing sixth when staying on past beaten horses in a Chelmsford handicap in February over ten furlongs off 46. Stepped up in trip his next two starts, he was beaten 22 lengths at Lingfield (behind Prince Percy) and 30 lengths at Chelmsford after freely setting the pace in a four runner field. Trainer Jamie Osbourne has won with two of his three juveniles since 2012, including the useful Saint Jerome, and his flat runners are in reasonable form. However, his charge comes in with the lowest official rating and while Fountain Of Youth has yet to be tested as a jumps sire, there is enough pace in his pedigree to have reservations over his being able to find significant improvement for the switch to hurdles.Debt Of Honour bg N Mulholland 5-0-0 (52) 51
Kyllachy (Nayef){7} 3/1 Architrave 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2010
After four runs on the flat for Michael Bell as a two year old, he was sold for 7,500 guineas at the Autumn Horses in Training Sale last year. Horses consigned by Michael Bell have a healthy winners to runners ratio of 33% including Rock Of Leon who had a flat rating of 57 although most of these will have been sold as three year-olds. Debt Of Honour was initially allocated a rather harsh mark of 58 on the basis of a one paced 15 length fifth in a Goodwood novice. He made his debut for his current yard three weeks ago where he beat only one home in a Chelmsford handicap off 55 jinking right a furlong from homa and being eased when beaten. His mark has since been dropped a further three pounds. Fitted with headgear his previous two starts, as well as hanging and jinking during those races, Debt Of Honour’s temperament casts further negatives on his case tempered by moderate form. However, in Neil Mulholland he is in very capable hands of a trainer with a proven record of winning juvenile hurdles with moderate flat form with Molliana winning having achieved an RPR of just 29 and Harley Rebel and Pass The Time winning multiple hurdles races with sub 60 official ratings. The stallion Kyllachy, who is without a juvenile winner from fourteen attempts in recent seasons does not particularly inspire confidence even if concerns are mitigated by the sharp conditions of Newton Abbot, the reasonable capabilities of Nayef as a damsire and that useful juvenile Ruacana appears 5/3 on the damline. There are perhaps too many negatives at this stage although if there is some aptitude shown on Tuesday then Debt Of Honour could be of interest further along.Edebez bg S Mullins 3-0-0 (53) 47
Zebedee (Barathea){4-r} No immediate jumps relatives, 7/5 Le Breuil
Not seen since a career best 14 length fifth of eleven in a Nottingham maiden last November. While damsire Barathea was capable of producing jumpers, the same can not be readily said of Zebedee and Edebez’s pedigree is more laden with speed than stamina. Seamus Mullins has trained winning juveniles but they typically show more promise on the flat.Hector De Sivola bg N Williams Unraced
Noroit (Montjeu){9-e} 1/1 Espiegle De Sivola 1st 17.5gs Claiming Hurdle, Hyeres 2017
Nick Williams has sent out nineteen debutants in juvenile hurdles since 2012 and five of them have won during the season. Fifteen of them also achieved RPRs of 96 or greater which would likely be enough to win this particular contest. Stallion Noroit, who died in 2018 aged twenty, is not a household name but has provided winners for Nick Williams including Faire Part Sivola and Diable De Sivola who both made winning racecourse debuts on decent ground. Furthermore, Hector De Sivola is related to horses placed around Auteuil and in the context of this field, Montjeu is a solidly capable damsire of juveniles. With any unraced horse, particularly where one is not privy to reputation, it is difficult to speculate with any degree of confidence. Nevertheless, with the flat standard so low and Hector De Sivola comparing so favourably on all other metrics, he holds a significant chance by default.Hiconic bf A Hales 7-0-2 (57) 57
Sixties Icon (Acclamation){1-n} 1/0 Hi Note 2nd 4YO Conditions Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
Finishing runner up in a Wolverhampton seller on her second start for Mick Channon last year, Hiconic made the move to Alex Hales where she was third on her subsequent start in a Lingfield novice before wrapping up her season a length behind the winner in a seven furlong Kempton handicap off 57. She made her seasonal reappearance early last month in a Lingfield mile handicap finishing last of twelve by just under ten lengths after drifting from 8/1 to 14/1. Allowing for her seven pound allowance, her official mark of 57 gives her the leading chance on ratings alone. While Hiconic’s family is broadly American, her dam Hi Note was a capable and consistent juvenile hurdler who finished in the first three in all seven starts during her first season over jumps. Sire Sixties Icon has 6 winners from 31 juveniles since 2012 but has a 61% improvement rate on horses switching between codes as juveniles. Acclamation boasts respectable damsire credentials in the context of this race with a 30% winner to runner rate. However it must be noted that full brother The Topp Notes is winless in two bumpers and two hurdles. Trainer Alex Hales is capable of firing out winning juveniles with limited ammunition with his three winners since 2012/13 officially rated no higher than 65. While finishing last on her reappearance is not ideal, she was not expected to run a big race and having never ran further than a mile on the flat, it is reasonable to expect some improvement for switching to hurdles.Itoldyoutobackit chg J O’Neill 4-0-0 (41)
Ivawood (Shamardal){9-h} 5/2 Muthabir 5 wins over hurdles between 2016 and 2019
Sold for 60,000 guineas as a yearling, Itoldyoutobackit would be a relatively rare flat runner for Jonjo O’Neill. By Ivawood, this half brother to a couple of decent winning two year olds might have been expected to show some precocity. However, he beat only one horse home in three starts, never finishing closer than 15 lengths from the winner. His return in February was a thirteen length ninth in a low class classified stakes and has not been seen since. Sire Ivawood has yet to have a runner over obstacles but his being a speedy two year old by Zebedee does not augur well. Damsire Shamardal falls below average by pertinent metrics. Jonjo O’Neill is obviously capable of training juveniles and enjoyed success in the early 2000s with the likes of Cherub, Giocomo and Quazar. However, Itoldyoutobackit falls way short of standard and while the gelding operation and wind surgery might help, the only reasonable explanation for a win might be given away by his name.Peat Moss bg N Hawke 3-0-0 (50) 50
Fracas (Dalakhani){14-c} 4/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle, Leopardstown 1992
After leaving Jim Bolger’s without seeing a racetrack, Peat Moss had three runs last month for Nigel Hawke. Five horses have made the switch between the aforementioned yards as juveniles with two of them winning and four of them achieving RPRs of 96 and above. However, those horses had shown some promise on the flat for Jim Bolger whereas Peat Moss has been beaten 19, 30 and 16 lengths, twice at Kempton and last time at Chepstow. On breeding there is some hope for Peat Moss as Fracas has a very healthy 59% winners to runners rate over jumps, Dalakhani has reasonable credentials as a damsire and the likes of Scolardy and The Young Master can be found on the damline. There is still plenty of improvement needed but with his astute trainer in fine form, he holds a better chance than the 200/1 that was offered on him on his last flat start.Prince Percy bg G Moore 6-0-1 (61) 65
Sir Percy (High Chaparral){1-u} 3/1 Walk In The Park 5th Listed Hurdle, Auteuil 2007 – NH Sire
Prince Percy has had four runs in 2020 – three during the winter and once more 26 days ago. Even the worst of that form produced by this consistent animal is superior to anything else seen this year and by some margin. He twice finished 1¾ lengths behind the winner in ten furlong handicaps at Lingfield off marks in the low 60s and the race where he was beaten into fifth of seven has worked out very well for the grade. Trainer Gary Moore boasts a very healthy strike rate in the field from a sizeable sample size and is well adept at winning juvenile hurdles with horses rated lower than Prince Percy. Sir Percy, also the sire of Presenting Percy, is above average in terms of winner/runner ratios for juveniles, horses out of High Chaparral mares are no strangers to success over hurdles and Prince Percy’s granddam is a half sister to Walk In The Park (sire of Min and Douvan). On paper, Prince Percy’s credentials look flawless but while his relative talent is conspicuous, so too are signs of temperament. He has been backed on all six of his starts to date, including into favouritism last time out, yet he remains without a win. Misgivings are further enhanced by observations of his races where he has been seen to hang and while being less than enthusiastic about giving best. That the yard has not had a winner in 35 runs must also be a concern. On form, he is perfectly capable of winning a race of this nature and given it is his easiest opportunity to date, he may only need to jump round to win. He would be odds-on on the proviso of an in-form yard and a demonstration of good attitude but since those two factors are lacking, it would be a brave mood to take short odds on this one.Strong prospects
1. Hector De Sivola
2. Hiconic
Reasonable prospects
3. Prince Percy
Feasible prospects
4. Debt Of Honour
5. Peat Moss
Moderate prospects
6. Itoldyoutobackit
Negligible prospects
7. American Dreamer
8. EdebezThis is great reading Bachelors; I’ve really missed your informed commentary on this topic. I have a snaking affection for 3-yr-old hurdlers; it may be the lowest rung of NH racing (even lower than staying hurdlers), and you can often smell the the despair of connections, but the horses try just as hard as any other, and deserve their day in the sun
Good luck with the thread, hope you dig out a few.
I’ll try myself, but definitely not a strong area for me.
Appreciate it befair. I thoroughly enjoy this underappreciated area of the sport and find it a fascinating endeavour on account of the low grade and patchy information. Hopefully life can maintain a healthy distance from this project and I can make a more sustained effort this time around!
Cheers VtC. I always like to preface this kind of thread by stressing that I am not a tipster and that the research is its own reward… Notwithstanding, I hope someone took some of the 12/1 available last night on the winner!
Anyways, review time.
The opening juvenile of the season looked weak beforehand and this was compounded by the withdrawal of Prince Percy. After money for Peat Moss on the day and Hiconic being well backed before the off, the market seemed a fair representation of the field. The pace was slow and while the leaders jumped fluently in the main, erratic jumping in behind will have influenced the course of the race. The going was good, good to firm in places.
Hiconic was always towards the fore and although she ran around on the approach to a few of the flights, jumped nicely in the main. A little low at the fifth, she overcompensated with a larger jump at the next but was intelligent throughout. She and the runner up began to pull clear on the run to the home straight and was travelling the better of the pair. Though she wandered a little at the last, she was quickly over and away from the flight and ran with enthusiasm all the way to the line. A 5½ length winner, she did not beat a great deal in the process but she went about doing so in a nice and professional manner. She would have to show more to win better races but looks like being reliable at this kind of level and would be difficult to beat if turning out again at Bangor on Sunday. A rating around the mid nineties would be reasonable.
Itoldyoutobackit drifted before the off but ended up posting a career best performance here. Racing fairly keenly on his first run since gelding and wind operations, he was never out of the front two and was one of the better jumpers in the field. His jumping rather fell apart in the straight with a big jump two out and a blunder at the last. This was not a run without promise (a rating in the low nineties would be fair) and he could run up to this kind of form under similar conditions. However, he might be vulnerable if there are demands for greater stamina in the future.
Peat Moss had not started shorter than 200/1 in three flat starts and was an outsider last night. However, he had been backed into an SP of 6/1 which was not the hugest surprise when considering his trainer and pedigree. In the event, he ran a race more befitting the latter price than the former while jumping well enough. Suffering interference at the first and third, he was not entirely fluent at the fifth after which he became outpaced. Nevertheless, he did plug on for third and while he could not be given a rating surpassing the low eighties on this effort, there is some scope for improvement given a stiffer task.
Edebez jumped pretty big at the first while possibly distracted by Itoldyoutobackit wandering into the flight, but he put in an otherwise fluent round. He did finish pretty tired and while that could be explained by it being his first run for 244 days, it is still difficult to envisage a race over jumps where he might be seen to better effect.
Hector De Sivola went off a well backed odds-on favourite which would be peculiar for an unraced horse. This may have been by mere dint of the flat form being poor than an unfettered confidence in his abilities. While he was beaten by almost thirty lengths, it would only be fair to discount this result entirely. He was violently blindsided at the first by Debt Of Honour and was lucky to stay on his own feet, let alone maintain his partnership with his rider. Nervy following the same horse into the second, he was put off twice again going down the straight first time. Toiling in last, he was given a reminder passing the post where to his credit, he did pick up the bridle and move to a prominent position. However, he was a spent force when he hit three out and was not given a hard time thereafter. This was far from an ideal introduction to the sport and there may be concerns that the experience will have soured him. However, there were hints of promise shown today in his mid race response and generally fluent jumping. As such, he would not be one to readily discount next time.
Debt Of Honour’s race was marked by erratic jumping, particularly at the first and third, and he was non too fluent at many of the others. He was not atrocious at the final two jumps although he may well have been too tired to maintain his exuberantly unique take on the art. It is unusual for a horse from his yard to jump so poorly so he may have just been unsettled by the occasion. Nevertheless, there was nothing in today’s performance which would make him of interest in the immediate future.
American Dreamer was unconsidered beforehand and ran accordingly. Involved in a minor collision at the first, he steadied into the fourth and was the first off the bridle before a slow jump at the fifth. He dropped back after the next and finished tailed off.
Tomorrow is the Tattersalls July Sale which regularly sees future juvenile hurdlers pass under the hammer. Though I am not particularly compelled to trawl through the catalogue for potential Triumph Hurdle candidates, I do have the energy to have a quick look at the horses sold at Newmarket in recent years.
While many a horse can sell for bargain basement prices, this sale is no stranger to seeing hefty sums of money risked on a potential jumping star of the future. The following six had price tags exceeding £100,000
Lethal Steps 2018 Andrew Balding > Gordon Elliott £315,000
Finishing fifth in the National Stakes as a two year old, Lethal Steps brought an official rating of 102 to the sales ring after finishing fourth in the listed Sir Henry Cecil stakes at Newmarket. Carrying the Cheveley Park Racing colours, he had seven starts over hurdles during his juvenile season without winning a single race although he did break his duck at the end of April in a Sligo maiden. His campaign did see him place five times and also had a trip to the Cheltenham Festival where he finished tailed off in the Fred Winter. Winning again last season at Galway, he returned to the Cheltenham Festival finishing in mid division in the County Hurdle.New Street 2014 Richard Fahey > Jim Best £194,250
After readily winning a class four handicap at Haydock off 79, New Street joined the Jim Best yard. He would not be seen until next March when he was ridden out to win a Stratford juvenile by a length and a quarter. That would be his last win over hurdles and after three more attempts over obstacles, he returned to the flat. He was last seen finishing well beaten in a Lingfield handicap off 57 in January 2019.Duroble Man 2013 Roger Varian > Alan King £136,500
A four race campaign in May and June saw Duroble Man’s flat rating rise from 72 to 86. He would finish fourth on his hurdles debut in the class two contest at Market Rasen and got off the mark at the second time of asking at Kempton the following month. He was well beaten on his next two starts – first in an ordinary Warwick contest and then in the Adonis back at Kempton won by Activial. He has not been seen since.Starchitect 2014 Edward Lynam > Donald McCain £115,500
The most successful of these by some margin, Starchitect was an 85 rated four race maiden when making the move to Cholmondeley. Winning his first two starts at Bangor and Aintree, Starchitect would finish runner up in pattern class contests at Doncaster and Musselburgh before a creditable fourth in the Fred Winter. After falling at the last when close up but beaten in Aintree’s Anniversary Hurdle, he was transferred to David Pipe where he ran with great credit in three top class handicaps before deservedly collecting a small race at Newton Abbot. He continued to improve as a chaser but his life was sadly cut short when he broke down with Cheltenham’s big December handicap at his mercy in 2017.Zamoyski 2013 Jeremy Noseda > Steve Gollings £110,250
Zamoyski won two of his seven starts for Jeremy Noseda, his second one a Kempton handicap off 80. Third on his jumps debut in the Wensleydale, he would fill the same position when running into the then inconspicuous Tiger Roll at Market Rasen. Zamoyski would have three more hurdles races that season, his best effort being a second at Doncaster in February. He would not win his first hurdles race until September 2017 when after being dropped to a mark of 97, would emulate the proverbial buses by racking up a hat trick at Southwell. He has not won since but is still with Steve Gollings and was seen only last week when pulling up at his favourite track.Olympic Odyssey 2018 George Scott > Harry Fry £105,000
100,000 guineas was fetched after Olympic Odyssey was beaten at 1/2 in a Ripon handicap off 66. He then had three goes over hurdles where he was beaten by 30, 24 and 26 lengths. Following a wind operation last year, he had a tune up race on the flat at Nottingham before finishing 48 lengths behind the winner in a Class 5 handicap at Market Rasen.Not every horse sold over the next couple of days will look quite as expensive in hindsight and the sale is no stranger to some savvy spending. In 2015, Gordon Elliott and John Walsh bought home winning juveniles Persiflage and Noble Vision after spending only £4,200 each. At the same auction, Stuart Edmunds only had to part with £15,750 to secure triple juvenile winner Wolf Of Windlesham, who counted both the Grade Two Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle and the valuable handicap at Sandown among his successes.
I didn’t back it either because that’s more my flirtation with Buddhism and a general aversion to materialism. Fortunately, the satisfaction of working on and completing the preview brings much more satisfaction than backing or even finding a winner and can carry a peace of mind regardless of the outcome. I am not sure if the general population of a horse racing board are inclined to practice a similar pacifism in the war against the bookies so if my musings are taken into consideration while placing a bet then I wish punters the best of luck!
The second Juvenile Hurdle of the season takes place this Sunday at Bangor. As with Newton Abbot’s curtain raiser, it would not be an exaggeration to suggest that this race probably won’t be as memorable as a mid 2000s Champion Hurdle. Still, whilst this field may not contain a Hardy Eustace, Macs Joy or Harchibald, Current’s twelfth dam is the tenth dam of Brave Inca which is pretty cool.
Looking at the dosage indexes of horses who have won the last fifty Juvenile Hurdles at Bangor, going back to 2008, the overall averages are 1.29 median and 1.41 mean. Removing ten outliers takes the mean down to 1.32 which would indicate that Bangor presents a sterner test than Newton Abbot. Although only fifteen of these sample races took place during June, July or August, the averages for those are even lower at 1.18 median and 1.27 mean. Naturally this is not to suggest that non-stayers can never win Bangor juveniles as Chatez demonstrated when taking a slowly run affair in 2014. Also, dosages are more a peripheral guide than a precise science.
With there being a couple of runners from Monday’s race due to line up, I have also had a look at the RPRs of juveniles with one run under their belts and those with two during their first season to ascertain the improvement a sole outing will provoke. This takes into account every RPR recorded since the 2012/13 season. Removing those who recorded a 0 as they will have either been hopelessly tailed off or failed to complete the course, 822 had the one start while 692 had two which is a reasonable sample size. The raw average RPR recorded were 74 for 1 run 86 for 2 runs median, 71.05/83.46 mean, and 71.59/84.57 mean with 100 outliers removed. The differences here are between twelve and thirteen pounds. This figure however does not distinguish between those who have come off the flat and those with previous experience in France, nor does it account for the standard of form attained on the flat. With this in mind, I narrowed the parameters to only include horses who brought official ratings from the flat which removed the imported, the unraced, junior bumpers and those who only had one or two flat starts. This leaves 550 with one hurdles start and 502 with two which is still a workable sample size. Here, the average RPR is for one start 67 mean, 70 median and for two, 81.28 mean and 85 median giving differences of 14.28 and 15 pounds. When the actual flat rating is taken into consideration, I have used whatever the lower figure is out of an official rating and the highest RPR to account for whether a horse has badly or naturally regressed to a realistic official mark, or has only been given an official rating because zero isn’t acceptable. From this, I subtracted this master rating from the jumps RPR before further subtracting thirty-five pounds. From here, the median figures are -27 for one start and -13.5 for two which is a difference of thirteen and a half pounds. Now it must be stressed that this research carries a flaw in that the highest RPR recorded from those with two starts may well have been achieved in the debut so these figures should not be regarded as a scientifically rigorous standard. Nevertheless, while one would not expect every horse to improve by a stone for their debut runs, the benefit of experience for young hurdlers is far from insignificant.
Avis Bay brf P Kirby 2-0-0 (-) 30
Cable Bay (Galileo){3-d}(0.71) 0.5 First Man Tailed off all four starts over jumps
Beaten forty-one lengths on his debut at Wolverhampton last November, she fared slightly better on her return in a Beverley Maiden where she was a fifteen length seventh of twelve runners. Her attentions are now switched to jumping after she was withdrawn for refusing to enter the stalls twenty days ago at Thirsk. Cable Bay, yet to have a runner over jumps, has not had winner beyond a mile on the flat. While he is by the same sire as Born To Sea, neither his pedigree or racing career were marked by stamina. Trainer Philip Kirby does train juvenile winners and Galileo is a capable damsire but their respective charges tend to have considerably more going for them than Avis Bay.Big Jimbo chc G Moore 3-0-0 (49) 40
Helmet (Pastoral Pursuits){9-c}(0.45) 3/1 Tiger Trek 1st Maiden Hurdle, Thurles 2014
Big Jimbo brings with him some reasonable credentials on paper. Stallion Helmet is not an unsuccessful sire of juveniles, trainer Gary Moore does very well in the sphere and Big Jimbo is not too distantly related to the likes of Zarkandar, Zaynar and Zaidpour. However, only minor promise was shown on the flat in three maidens last year, runners from the yard are still performing way below standard and since 2012/13, the only entires to have won as juveniles were Gmac (rated 68) and Sir Erec (2½l third to Stradivarius in the Long Distance Cup).Current chf D Roberts 1-0-0 (-) 14
Equiano (New Approach){8-c}(0.57) 2/1 First Buddy 122 5th Anniversary Hurdle, Aintree 2008
The aforementioned distant relative of Brave Inca, Current had just the one start last year for Richard Hannon where she was a tailed off last of fourteen after showing some speed in a Newmarket maiden. She was then sold at the Ascot November sale for just £1,500 and after a wind operation, was last seen refusing the enter the stalls at Catterick ten days ago. While there are hints of promise on the damline, Equiano has failed to produce a jumps winner and the trainer has not won a juvenile hurdle in recent years.Debt Of Honour bg N Mulholland f5-0-0 (52) 51 j1-0-0 (-) 79
Kyllachy (Nayef){7}(1.91) 3/1 Architrave 1st Market Rasen Juvenile 2010
Prior to Monday’s race, there was a case for Debt Of Honour acquitting himself with credit on the basis his very capable trainer and a reasonable damline. There were concerns over his moderate flat form and his wayward tendencies and it was the latter that manifested in no uncertain terms at Newton Abbot. His jumping could be described as violent at times before finishing tired after tuckering himself out. Although one would hope to see some improvement in his jumping on Sunday, it would still be appropriate to describe rider Tom Scudamore as a brave man.Depardieu chg B Brennan 9-0-0 (47) 59
Leroidsanimaux (Archipenko){5-h}(1.13) 3/1 Shernando 2nd Novices’ Hurdle, Kempton 2013
Depardieu is the most experienced horse in this field on the basis of his nine visits to the racecourse – six of them last year for Michael Grassick. Initially rated 66, presumably on the strength of finishing tenth in a Naas maiden, Depardieu has since dropped to a mark of 47 which would be a more accurate representation on his performances. His latest effort in a twelve furlong Lingfield handicap in March off 50 saw him finish 3¼ lengths from the winner which is as close as he has ever come to troubling the judge. The form of that race has worked out poorly but at least Depardieu appeared honest and capable of staying a trip. However, while he is somewhat related to the likes of Punjabi, Marracudja and Agrapart through his sixth dam, the sire has never produced a jumps winner and the yard has gone over a year since achieving same.Hiconic bf A Hales f7-0-2 (57) 57 j1-1-0 101
Sixties Icon (Acclamation){1-n}(0.60) 1/0 Hi Note 136 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
Hiconic had a strong case for Newton Abbot’s race and after the market corrected her price from the 12/1 available in the morning to 9/2 second favourite, she won in a very taking and professional manner. Arguments for a strong showing were formed by the stallion’s capacity to improve horses between codes, the damsire’s solid record, the dam’s success and consistency as a juvenile hurdler, the reasonable flat form for the level and a trainer who does well in the sphere. These factors remain pertinent and her prospects for Sunday were augmented by her performance earlier in the week where she looked much more polished than one would expect for a early-season juvenile. That effort showed her fit and in good heart and if they have not taken too much of a toll then she will be difficult to beat in this field.Jean Marie chf S Keniry 3-0-0 (22) 18
Cityscape (Hero’s Tribute){1-c}(2.33) 2/1 Red Moloney 146 6th Supreme NvH, Cheltenham 2009
Beating only one horse home in three starts, Jean Marie was allotted a mark of 22. For all that she is out of a winning half sister to the useful Red Moloney, her sire has yet to have a winner over obstacles and the trainer will have to do something remarkable for her first juvenile hurdler to be a winning one.Soldier On Parade bg A Murphy 7-0-1 (66) 68
Dunaden (Mujadil){1-u}(4.60) 2/1 Out Of Control 1st Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2009
The official rating of 65 is the highest one brought to juvenile hurdles in the two races thus far and his penultimate run at Haydock reads well in the context of this race. Four lengths behind the dead heated winners, one of them – Bahrani Star – was not disgraced at either Royal Ascot or in the Oaks while subsequent Newmarket winner Bondi Sands was just a half length in front. While his DI suggests that he might want for stamina, and his damsire has a poor record with juveniles, his sire – the late Dunaden – was a Melbourne Cup winner and his sole hurdler was a winning juvenile. Furthermore, he absolutely shapes like a stayer in his races and his dam is a half sister to a winning hurdler. Trainer Amy Murphy has yet to score with any of her eight juveniles thus far but she is currently in fine form with each of her last six runners finishing in the first three. There would be concerns regarding the fact that Soldier On Parade does wear headgear and can race freely. While he is a consistent type and his flat form would give him leading claims, particularly as Hiconic has wiped out her allowance, proven competence over hurdles can be telling in this sort of contest.Strong prospects
1. Hiconic
Reasonable prospects
2. Soldier On Parade
Feasible prospects
3. Debt Of Honour
Moderate prospects
4. Depardieu
5. Big Jimbo
Negligible prospects
6. Current
7. Avis Bay
8. Jean MarieThis year’s Tattersalls July Sale was an encouraging one for the industry as few horses went unsold and the prices achieved by the top lots were in line with expectations. However, for the juvenile hurdle enthusiast, there was little to get excited over as the sale produced very few transactions with designs on the sphere. Regarding the lots fetching over 18,000gns, NBB Racing, who have acted on behalf of Gary Moore and Dr Richard Newland in the past, brought a pair of unraced fillies from Godolphin. Craig and Laura Buckingham, whose charges have ran over the jumps, had a colt and a gelding for 20,000 and 18,000 while More Than A Prince, who fetched 58,000gns, is set to be given time and a gelding operation. At this juncture, the only horse who more likely than not to contest juvenile hurdles Pawpaw.
Pawpaw bg P Webber 5-1-1 (72) 77
Showcasing (Teofilo){1-n}(1.00) 2/1 Double Deputy 2x1st Handicap Hurdle (95,105), Market Rasen 2007
Second then first in his two starts this season, both ten furlong handicaps at Lingfield, Pawpaw joins Paul Webber with a flat rating of 72. Closely related to a couple of classic placed horses (2/1 Lend A Hand 2nd 1998 2000 Guineas, 3/2 Tamure 2nd 1995 Epsom Derby), Pawpaw is out of a half sister to a dual hurdles winner and can find classy eighties hurdler Cima 6/4 on the damsline. Showcasing has made a fair start with juvenile hurdlers with two of his nine charges finding success in the sphere although his jumpers have yet to win over any ground softer than good or at any distance beyond two easy miles. Teofilo is a slightly above average damsire of juveniles with a 40% improvement rate between codes. Trainer Paul Webber is zero from eight with juveniles since 2012/13 and is historically without notable juvenile prizes to his name. While Pawpaw would be his most expensive recruit during that time, only one of eleven ex-Clive Cox inmates (Nicky Henerson’s Little Dutch Girl) have won in the sphere.With the sale failing to provide much else to discuss, here are three horses from France who are not currently listed in any markets for the Triumph Hurdle but are likely to ply their trade in the UK or Ireland this season.
Busselton bg J P O’Brien 1-1-0
Mastercraftsman (Rock Of Gibraltar){1-u}(2.43) 5/4 Soldier On Parade runs tomorrow at Bangor
Like the Prix Rush and the Prix Grandak, the Prix Wild Monarch is another race for horses making their first appearances over hurdles. Recent graduates include Footpad, Dolas and Botox Has in keeping with its tradition of introducing some top class animals to the game over the years such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce to name but a few. This year’s edition, boasting a large field of nineteen starters, was won by Busselton who was representing the David Cottin yard. His fourth dam, 1983 1000 Guineas winner Ma Biche, has not supplemented her successes on the racecourse in the breeding sheds and Busselton is her only descendant to have won over obstacles. Rock Of Gibraltar was capable as a sire of juveniles but offers little enthusiasm as a damsire. However, for all that the distaff side is a proverbial family tree of woe, sire Mastercraftsman is the leading sire of juveniles by individual winners which amounts to a respectable 29% of all runners. Furthermore, two of the three Joseph O’Brien juveniles who started in French Hurdle races have won and the third, Fine Brunello, chased home stablemate and fellow import Fakir d’Oudairies in the Grade Two Finesse in 2019. This season’s Prix Wild Monarch has yet to produce any winners from thirteen attempts although fourth placed Hades was second next time in the Prix Rocking Chair and he’s the only representative from the first four who were ten lengths clear of the remainder.State Man chg Unknown 1-0-1
Doctor Dino (Johann Quatz){4-r}(0.71) 0.5 Statuaire 2nd Prix Finot (listed), Auteuil 2018
Second behind Busselton was State Man who finished two lengths behind the winner. By Doctor Dino, a most capable stallion who can count Sceau Royal, Sharjah and Master Dino amongst his offspring, State Man also has juvenile credentials on the damline. His half sister was second in the Prix Finot two seasons ago while the dam, who incidentally was third in the Fillies’ Wild Monarch, collected the listed Prix de Chambly in 2009. State Man is down has being exported on the France Gallop site although information of his whereabouts is not readily available online. He was trained by Daniela Mele for his sole start and her other export to the UK was Stratagem who ran for Paul Nicholls – a trainer who has a history of acquiring runners from the Prix Wild Monarch. Nevertheless, the notion that State Man might well be at Ditcheat is pure conjecture on my part.Hope You Do bg Unknown 1-1-0
Boris de Deauville (Nononito){3-c}(2.00) 2/1 Bidourey 3x1st Juvenile Hurdles 2014/15
Registered as “sold” on France Galop, Hope You Do won a bumper at Angers on the 23rd of May by two lengths. The runner up has subsequently finished second at Les Sables d’Olonne and the third placed Hockney Vallis improved one position on his return to Angers. The late Boris de Deauville, sire of dual listed hurdle winner Baxter, is one winner from one runner with his juveniles in the UK after Pola Chance won a Wetherby handicap off 92. Hope You Do himself is out of a half sister to David Pipe’s Bidourey who also won an AQPS flat race on his debut for Isabelle Pacault.Shifting to the topic of tomorrow’s race at Bangor, it is with deep contrition that I must publish erratum and addenda. Firstly, on two occasions I mistakenly said that the race at Newton Abbot took place on Monday when in fact, it was Tuesday. Secondly, I neglected to give due consideration to the exacerbated stamina concerns that Bangor will present to Debt Of Honour and consequently, I can only consider his prospects to be moderate rather than feasible. Furthermore, in light of Gary Moore finally getting a winner at Bath last night, Big Jimbo’s prospects can be elevated from moderate to feasible. The revised prospects summary now reads as follows;-
Strong prospects
1. Hiconic
Reasonable prospects
2. Soldier On Parade
Feasible prospects
3. Big Jimbo
Moderate prospects (swap Depardieu and Debt Of Honour in the event of drying ground)
4. Depardieu
5. Debt Of Honour
Negligible prospects
6. Current
7. Avis Bay
8. Jean MarieToday’s race at Bangor has an overall better look than Newton Abbot’s curtain raiser and the form has a solid air about it. Soldier On Parade was very strong in the market and backed near enough into joint favouritism. While this was indicative of a horse knowing its business for an in-form yard, I still would not have had the front two so close in the betting. Nevertheless, the rest of the market gave a fair assessment of the participants and there did not appear to be any plot horses in the field. While races of this nature can be slowly run affairs, there was no dawdling in today’s contest with four horses vying for the lead heading to the first. Furthermore, while there was plenty of novicey jumping on show, there were no instances of significant interference or bad luck stories.
Hiconic, who won at Newton Abbot on Tuesday, was even more impressive with her win today. By juvenile standards, she was again well above average in her jumping and her attitude although it is not impossible to find minor flaws with the performance. She had to be woken up going into the third and became rather fresh before and after the fourth. Kielan Woods had to restrain her in order to give her a breather and in fairness, she did comply. She did not make a great shape at the fifth but she got away fine and she also slightly trailed her hind legs through the second last. Evidently, a certain pedantry is necessary to find negatives in her effort and should only serve as a demonstration of Hiconic not being the finished article. The positives are both eminent and laudable. The proficiency with which she jumped several of these flights would befit a seasoned handicapper, and there was a touch of class about the way she dropped the field and her main rival before running through the line under hands and heels. A performance rating exceeding 110 would be easily justified. Talk of races such as the Triumph would be premature and fanciful, particularly as the French imports could be useful and anything could emerge from the flat. Nevertheless, with the proliferation of pattern class juvenile and novice hurdles for fillies, it would not be completely absurd to imagine that Hiconic could collect some black type this season.
Soldier On Parade brought consistent and fair form from the flat and was the subject of significant market support before the off. He was backed as though he knew his job and put in a round which was very acceptable for a debut effort. Closely following the leader throughout, there were mild critiques that could be made about half of his jumps such as marginal deviations, slight hesitancy and a misjudging of his stride. Nevertheless, he was also foot perfect at a few others and his imperfect jumps offer encouragement rather than concern for the future. He travelled nicely and even though it was in keeping with his flat superiority, he still pulled clear from the remainder with the minimum off fuss. Keeping on to the line and finishing twenty-one lengths clear off the third, he can be given a rating of at least 104 and be expected to improve on that figure next time.
Big Jimbo was kept towards the rear but travelled well enough within himself before staying on for a distant third. His jumping was not atrocious but his round did lack confidence. The market did not indicate any great expectations and the effort is representative of a horse who has trained on during his absence without improving leaps and bounds. Despite being a Helmet x Pastoral Pursuits cross, stamina would not be a concern over two miles and given experience and perhaps a gelding operation, can improve on a low 80s mark.
Debt Of Honour did not put in an entirely fluent round but the blinkers appear to have had a telling effect as this was a significant improvement on his debut effort. He raced more prominently than at Newton Abbot and dropped away when reserves were put to the test. There is potential for him to be involved in a low grade race given the right conditions but he would not warrant particular consideration in average company.
Current gave plenty of trouble going to post and while she was initially held up, jockey Lee Edwards was resigned to allowing her her head and she moved to a more prominent position before halfway. Unsurprisingly, she weakened to finish over forty-four lengths behind the winner. She did actually jump quite well and does have something resembling pace but while there might be a bad enough race for her to run into a place on the flat, she would need an atrocious race ran at a crawl over jumps.
Avis Bay was a further twenty lengths behind and finished last of the six finishers. While she was mildly hampered at the second it was not enough to have affected her performance and she was not a natural jumper.
Depardieu initially raced prominently but his jumping was error strewn and he found himself outpaced before the race reached the halfway point. He was soon dropped before pulling up. While a trip might see him a better light down the line, this effort was devoid of promise.
Jean Marie was a handful going to post, started off in rear, put down at several hurdles and was soon detached before pulling up a long way out.
The third juvenile race of the season takes place at Stratford on Tuesday and is set to feature the winner of the first two in Hiconic. Now under a double penalty, the mare faces a new challenge as both Alan King and Tom George have entered their first juvenile hurdlers this term. Despite being a sharp and relative track, dosage indexes suggest that Stratford presents a more demanding test for the juvenile than either Newton Abbot or Bangor with the median DI of the past 64 winners a mere 0.93. The current ground description of good to soft may place further emphasis on stamina.
Hiconic bf A Hales f7-0-2 (57) 57 j2-2-0 105
Sixties Icon (Acclamation){1-n}(0.60) 1/0 Hi Note 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
Hiconic made it two from two last weekend at Bangor with a performance which marked further improvement from her already satisfying debut win at Newton Abbot. She can set her own pace, jump very cleanly and respond well to instruction. The quality of her opposition has not been exceptional but the form of her latest win had a solid look to it and warranted a mark of at least 110 on account of her professionalism and ease of victory. The double penalty will naturally make matters more difficult but she still sets a decent standard and has very few questions to answer so will be a very strong contender if showing no ill effects for her third race in quick succession.Bannister bg T George 1-0-0 (-) 66
Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) .5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
Bannister had his sole start on the flat last October in a mile maiden at Windsor where he looked as though the experience would do him good. The bare form of that race does not read very well with only one winner being produced from twenty-six runs. Nevertheless, those that finished around him have produced performances that justify ratings in the low seventies. Furthermore, there are several things to like about his profile with this new discipline in mind. His stallion Olympic Glory made a fine start with his first juveniles last term producing two winners from five runners and damsire Kendor has a very healthy 75% winners to runners ratio. Tom George also has a decent strike rate with his juveniles although his better ones do tend to be imported. Furthermore, his few runners this season have not been firing and those running in a hood for the yard do not fare well historically. Nevertheless, Bannister is not without potential and can be a threat if Hiconic under-performs.Clan Spirit bg J Portman 1-0-0 (-) 0
Cable Bay (Clodovil){10-c}(0.82) .5 Foxy’s Spirit 6th Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2009
Unfancied at 100/1 when making his debut in a Kempton novice stakes last month, Clan Spirit ran no sort of race. Starting awkwardly and pulling hard, he was eased after hanging in the straight to finish over a hundred lengths behind the winner. Cable Bay is still winless with flat horses beyond a mile and his sole hurdler finished tailed off last week. While the trainer’s horses can improve for a switch from the flat, he is without a juvenile winner from his past twelve runners.Dragon Man bg M Young 3-0-0 (47) 45
Dragon Pulse (Editor’s Note){23}(1.50) 2/1 Mad George 1st Bumper, Plumpton 2011 2-0-0 Hurdles
Max Young is due to send out his first runner as a trainer with the ex-Michael Grassick trained Dragon Man. Twice closer to last than first last August at the Curragh and Tipperary, Dragon Man was last seen at the beginning of June beaten almost thirty lengths in a Naas maiden at 300/1. Although his granddam is a half sister to Scorpion and he can find Moorcroft Boy (7/3) and Blue Charm (7/4) in the echos of his pedigree, his sire has only one winning juvenile from eight offspring.Fiach Stoney bg M Loughnane 3-0-0 (52) 48
Urban Poet (Excellent Art){9-c}(2.08) 2/0 Randall’s Diana 1st Handicap Hurdle (88), Listowel 2008
While he may be forgiven for his well beaten ninth of nine in a Wolverhampton maiden last time, his first two starts back in January offer little encouragement. The form of those he has finished nearby is devoid of promise for this level and his keenness is also a concern. Although his granddam was a dual winner over hurdles and his damsire produced some successes in the sphere, these factors alone would not be enough to cause optimism.Kings Creek bg A King 5-0-0 (62) 65
Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 3/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
Alan King has had a rather barren spell with the Triumph Hurdle in recent years but he is still a force to be reckoned with in the division. From the seventy-one trainers with fifteen or more runners since the 2011/12 season, he is surpassed only by Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins for winners/runners and has the best record from those with fifty or more juveniles for improving their charges from flat to jumps. Kings Creek, a maiden after five starts on the flat, brings a rating of 62 and while Alan King has won with lower rated juveniles (Forgiving Glance and Gimme Five), the overall profile presents vulnerabilities. The rating of 62, initially 66 at the start of the campaign, is still reasonable in the context of this race but Kings Creek has not shaped like an obvious stayer in his races and neither his tendency to run green and drift to the right, nor the fact he has already undergone a wind operation are encouraging. His pedigree is speed rather than stamina laden and while Elusive Quality has produced winning hurdlers, he has not done so with juveniles and his progeny are not given to improving for the switch to jumps. Kings Creek still has to be entitled to respect on the basis of his trainer and bare form but there will be much stronger prospects back at the yard.Pink Jazz bg S Curran 10-1-1 (59) 62
Red Jazz (Captain Marvelous){2-f}(1.67) 2/1 Band Of Blood 147 4th Drinmore Novices Chase, Fairyhouse 2014
Pink Jazz began his career with Gordon Elliott and landed a gamble for the yard in a Wolverhampton handicap back in January. He came very close to doubling his tally on his debut for the current yard in a similar class contest at Kempton when held by just a nose. The form of the latter race has worked out better than the former and the standard of these runs puts him roughly on a par with Kings Creek. However, while his attitude seems fair enough, he did rather shirk out of the issue after being slightly hampered at Windsor last time and is another who does not look a natural stayer. His dam is a half sister to the decent Band Of Blood and Go Native is a 5/6 relative but sire Red Jazz, a son of Johannesburg, has yet to produce a winning hurdler and damsire Captain Marvelous’s useful juvenile Lindenhurst was a King’s Theatre cross. Furthermore, the yard has not sent out a winning juvenile since Prince Pippin landed a quickfire double in November 2009.Royal Bassett bg R Dickin 4-0-1 (61) 58
Wootton Bassett (Dashing Blade){1-h}(1.40) .5 Donnadream 1st 4YO Hurdle, Enghien 2015
Royal Bassett started at 300/1 when producing his best form to date in a novices stakes at Newmarket where he led briefly before eventually finishing eighteen lengths third of five behind subsequent Bahrain Trophy winner and leading St Leger candidate Al Aasy. On the back of that effort, he was allotted a mark of 65 which was not deemed generous by the market as he started 125/1 in a two mile handicap at Ascot. The market was proven correct as he was beaten forty-eight lengths and his current mark of 61 would still appear to flatter him. His pedigree is not devoid of promise as he is a half brother to a winning hurdler, Wooton Bassett has won with two of his three hurdle runners and Dashing Blade mares have produced a couple of minor winning juveniles. However, Robin Dickin has yet to saddle a winning juvenile and has gone over a year since a winner of any nature.Salento bg S Kittow 1-0-0 (-) 24
Olympic Glory (Street Cry){6-d}(0.82) 3/3 Penglai Pavilion 1st Novices Hurdle, Cheltenham 2015
Bruno de Montzey was the source of last season’s Scottish Triumph winner Thyme White although while that former stablemate was thought good enough to enter in a Group 3 at Longchamp, Salento was a well beaten last of six in a race for unraced colts and geldings on his sole start. Stuart Kittow, who won a Uttoxeter handicap last week, has yet to saddle a winning juvenile but there is some minor encouragement in the breeding. The aforementioned Olympic Glory has made a promising start and there are decent hurdlers on the damline including Penglai Pavilion and five-time winner Noukari. Nevertheless, there would still need to be significant improvement on the flat effort.Swell Swilly chg C Hills 3-0-0 (48) 44
Australia (Pivotal){14-b}(1.13) 7/9 Harper Valley 3rd Anniversary Hurdle, Aintree 2008
Australia made a promising start with his first crop of jumpers, producing three winners including the useful Lord Lamington. While these three winners were rated at least a stone better than Swell Swilly on the flat, three fifths of his progeny improved for the switch from flat to jumps including the Pivotal cross Metal Man. However, Swell Swilly has shown nothing more than a modicum of ability on the flat in three starts during which he has ran green, has no jumping stock on his immediate damline and his trainer has yet to saddle a jumps winner.Strong prospects
1.Hiconic
Reasonable prospects
2.Bannister
3.Kings Creek
4.Pink Jazz
Feasible prospects
5.Salento
Moderate prospects
6.Royal Bassett
7.Swell Swilly
Negligible prospects
8.Fiach Stoney
9.Dragon Man
10.Clan SpiritHiconic made it a clean sweep of this season’s juvenile races today at Stratford in a contest which probably had the most strength in depth seen thus far. The money beforehand for Kings Creek appears to have been a reflection of Alan King’s reputation than that of the horse itself and Royal Bassett’s shortening odds were a fair readjustment of the market. The ground had dried up over the weekend but a keen pace ensured that there was no hiding place and with the right horses pulling well clear at the end, the form looks solid.
Hiconic had been admirably professional in her first two starts over hurdles and was entitled to win on her previous performances. She still did things very nicely and while she was extended more so here than during her previous victories, this would still represent further improvement. A rating of at least 120 would be wholly appropriate and while she would still need to improve quite considerably to be thought of in festival terms, a crack at black type would be entirely warranted.
Bannister was green on his sole flat run last year and the application of the hood and his being led down to the start foreshadowed his behaviour here. Pulling his way to the front early on, he raced very keenly through the opening phases of the race to the undoubted detriment of his performance as his jumping somewhat deteriorated in the closing stages. Nevertheless, he did jump well up to that point and did battle to fend off Pink Jazz to hold on to second place. Taking his general profile alongside the improvement that can be expected with experience, it is not difficult to imaging him enjoying some success in this discipline.
Pink Jazz was another who pulled hard early on but did settle somewhat quicker after getting a lead from the aforementioned horse. Capable of honest efforts on the flat, he jumped well for the most part and made a fair account of himself on his hurdling debut. It is not guaranteed that he will replicate this performance next time and he may be better served by handicaps than by open company but this was not an effort without promise.
Kings Creek‘s performance was rather unremarkable in the sense that he went quietly about his business without drawing attention. Jumping soundly and travelling professionally, he was the first of the front four to come off the bridle before being beaten by fourteen lengths. While there might be a weak enough race for him somewhere on the strength of this outing, he does not seem to have as much scope as the runner up and his stamina looks fairly limited at this stage.
Royal Bassett was backed from 80/1 in the morning to 22/1, presumably on the strength of his flattering Newmarket effort. He was the last of the outsiders to let go of the front four and accordingly got the best of a bunched finish for a tailed off fifth place. His jumping could improve as he was big over a few of his jumps as well as pecking at the third but overall there is no immediate promise.
Fiach Stoney‘s jumping lacked fluency from the start and while he was able to briefly regain the bit after being pushed along at half-way, there is little else of encouragement to take out of this run.
Swell Swilly was another whose jumping left much to be desired and does not look like a future winner.
Salento was actually pretty neat at a couple of his jumps but did not build on the lack of promise on his sole flat start in France.
Dragon Man jumped alright at the first couple of hurdles, wandered around before jumping late at the third and pushed along after the next.
Clan Spirit was a slow jumper who was the first to tail off before pulling up.
Following on from a conversation elsewhere, I felt compelled to respond by not only putting research into the dosage of juvenile hurdlers on my to-do list, but to also etch it off the to-do list one horse at a time. I would love to say that the time invested was time well spent on a wild and invigorating adventure through the fascinating intricacies of data analysis. The reality, however, was endless hours of repetitive data entry interrupted by brief spells of entering data on pedigreequery. Not to mention the guilt induced insomnia caused by my adding AQPS horses on a thoroughbred database. May Arkle have mercy on my soul.
While this monument to well spent time has yet to reach full completion, there is a sufficient assembly of data from which to extrapolate some vague meaning. As a quick disclaimer – due to the limitations in the way Dosage Indexes are calculated, they can not lay a claim to any exacting and rigorous science and despite some very tangible patterns emerging from the research, they still best function as a contextualising guide rather than a trustworthy pathfinder. On the other hand, the RPRs used within this research are infallible… As ever, if there are any questions, comments, criticisms or the likes then they would be most welcome.
The data is taken from those who raced over hurdles as juveniles from the 2011/12 season onwards and the first set will concern those who raced at least four times during their initial campaign. Four runs would provide more accurate data than one or two runs and although the success rates will be skewed accordingly, there is still a healthy sample size of 1587.
The rows are the dosage indexes in bands and the columns are total horses in each band, number of winners amongst them, winner:runner rate, average wins per horse in the band, average run and strike rate, mean Dosage Index, median Dosage Index, mean peak RPR, median peak RPR.
________Total Wnrs W:R Wins Runs SR Mn DI Md DI Mn RPR Md RPR
0.00-0.50 139 080 57.55% 0.84 5.07 16.57% 0.40 0.42 109.94 111.0
0.51-0.75 239 135 56.49% 0.93 5.11 18.20% 0.63 0.63 109.89 110.0
0.76-0.99 212 098 46.23% 0.77 5.21 14.78% 0.84 0.85 106.53 108.0
1.00-1.00 139 067 48.20% 0.77 5.26 14.64% 1.00 1.00 104.59 103.0
1.01-1.25 156 074 47.44% 0.70 5.12 13.67% 1.16 1.17 105.21 104.5
1.26-1.50 167 071 42.51% 0.69 5.08 13.58% 1.39 1.40 101.58 104.0
1.51-1.99 207 090 43.48% 0.62 5.02 12.35% 1.65 1.67 097.76 105.0
2.00-2.49 152 069 45.39% 0.64 5.23 12.24% 2.19 2.20 100.36 103.5
2.50-3.00 113 054 47.79% 0.64 5.43 11.79% 2.85 3.00 098.10 099.0
3.01-15.0 063 015 23.81% 0.46 5.27 08.73% 4.75 4.00 100.03 103.0
ALL____ 1587 753 47.45% 0.74 5.20 14.23% 1.42 1.15 104.58 106.0I am hoping that the underscores and zeros make this table look presentable… Rather delightfully, the fact that there are discernible patterns as opposed to a completely chaotic assortment of numbers show that these efforts have not been a complete waste of time. In the simplest terms, the overarching finding is that the lower the dosage index, the better. This is shown almost perfectly in the race for race strike rate as with the exception of the lowest band, the percentage strike rate constantly decreases as the DI increases. Juveniles with sub 1.00 DIs also achieve higher RPRs than their more “brilliant” and “intermediate” counterparts. The figures follow the trend in a faithful manner for the most part with the blips within an acceptable range of variance. If one was to speculate on the wandering, perhaps it might be while a horse’s class might be enough to win the occasional lesser race or place in a stronger one, a lack of stamina might make the difference between victory and defeat in the better races?
Still looking at the horses with more than three runs as a juvenile, if we split the winners from the maidens or those who achieved RPRs exceeding 105 from those who did not, we find an almost identical contrast, telling us that a winning juvenile or an above average performing one will have a dosage index approximately 0.2 lower than its less successful counterparts;-
________Total Mean Median
RPR >105_ 796 1.31 1.00
RPR <106_ 791 1.52 1.22
Winners___753 1.30 1.00
Maidens___834 1.52 1.22Now for every juvenile since 2011/12 to have achieved a three digit RPR. This would ensure that the horses demonstrated some level of form and provides us with a sample size of 1673. The horses have been split into a band of 164-140 then bands of ten pounds thereafter. The columns show the amount of horses in each band followed by the mean and median DIs;-
(164-140) 085 1.04 0.88
(139-130) 189 1.18 1.00
(129-120) 286 1.25 1.00
(119-110) 497 1.32 1.11
(109-100) 616 1.34 1.12For greater accuracy, here are the same bands but with horses who raced only once eliminated;-
(164-140) 084 1.04 0.89
(139-130) 184 1.19 1.00
(129-120) 269 1.25 1.00
(119-110) 449 1.35 1.13
(109-100) 544 1.34 1.12And again but with horses with more than two runs qualifying;-
(164-140) 077 1.07 0.90
(139-130) 169 1.21 1.00
(129-120) 238 1.28 1.00
(119-110) 383 1.38 1.18
(109-100) 429 1.38 1.18These figures consistently demonstrate that a lower DI is a common feature among the classier juvenile hurdlers. While it would be folly to proclaim any grand truths when it comes to the study of form and ludicrous to do so where breeding is concerned, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that stamina, particularly in the classier races, is a prerequisite to success in juvenile hurdles. Particularly as during this time period, only two of the eighty-five horses to have achieved an RPR of 140 or above had DIs exceeding 3.00. Neither of them were amongst the sixty-three on 142 or above.
It is worth bearing in mind that as a horse’s stamina tends to increase as it ages (or if you prefer, it loses its speed), a lack of staying power as a juvenile would not preclude a fruitful career in the long term over jumps. Also, there will always be exceptions and anomalies and as the dosage index will not paint the entire picture of a horse’s genetic predisposition to distances, it is also crucial to consider the pedigree of each horse on its own merit. The two aforementioned juveniles who performed with higher DI provide fine examples. Charlie Parcs grandsire is Anabaa, a capable source of stamina, and while the sires on his dam’s side were predominantly milers, the damsire Nikos was a crack National Hunt stallion counting the likes of Encore Un Peu, Nononito and Master Minded amongst his own and Apple’s Jade, Houblon des Obeaux and Cokoriko as products of his dams. Fox Norton has a DI of 3.00 due in most part to the fact that his chefs-de-race forefathers (the ancestors whose presence determines the dosage index) only begin to appear on the fourth line of his pedigree.
Furthermore, certain sire-lines will carry attributes which make them more than capable of producing good juvenile hurdlers despite a comparative lack of stamina. The precocious sprinter Danehill Dancer was capable of producing good hurdlers but apparently even better at producing sires of juveniles such as Jeremy, Mastercraftsman and Fast Company.
The fourth juvenile hurdle takes place at Market Rasen on Monday and it will be the first without Hiconic which will give some other horse a chance to win a race. Her absence further compounds the notion that at first glance, this is a tricky race to evaluate in advance. While all of the newcomers’ profiles have features which could make them interesting and/or competitive, they also have aspects which demand discretion and reticence. As such, unless there is a revelatory performance of sorts, the form of this race might warrant caution insofar as the future is concerned. The average winning DI from the past fifty-three Market Rasen juvenile hurdles is 1.00 median and 1.40 mean – 1.27 when outliers are removed. On these figures alone, this would make it a sterner test than Newton Abbot and somewhere between Bangor and Stratford with the mean figure bringing it closer to the former and the median the latter. Some very good juveniles have competed at Market Rasen in recent years before going on to bigger and brighter things such as Tiger Roll, Fox Norton, Cliffs Of Dover and Nube Negra – not to mention Triumph winners Countrywide Flame and Katchit. However, while this race probably wont be adding to that list, we can still enjoy a nice headache while attempting to contextualise the event.
Billy The Squid bg F O’Brien (47) 34
Requinto (American Post){19}(0.43) 2/1 Edylan 1st 5YO Conditions Hurdle, Angers 2019
On the plus side, Billy The Quid has a nice low dosage index, his damsire has two winners from three juveniles (both as a sire and a damsire) and along with being out of a half sister to winning hurdler, shares a maternal line with relatives such as El Dancer (5/2), Captain Cee Bee (5/3), Esmondo (5/4) and Triumph winner Pentland Hills (6/4). Less positive elements are that sire Requinto is zero from four juveniles and while his trainer is in grand form at the moment, his record with juveniles (one winner from twelve and a 29% improvement rate) is less inspiring. However, the most damaging facet of Billy The Squid’s profile is his flat form which saw him beaten seventy-three lengths in three runs for George Scott.Dorchester Dom chg N Twiston-Davies 6-0-0 (55) 69
Starspangledbanner (Alhaarth){9-e}(2.00) 3/2 Mutakarrim 1st Sharp Novices Hurdle, Cheltenham 2002
Dorchester Dom began his flat career as early as anybody with a creditable fourth in the Brocklesby Stakes last March for David Evans. Despite this flash of precocity, the fact he has never ran beyond seven furlongs and his being out of the classy sprinter Starspangledbanner, stamina is not a major concern with horse. Although Starspangledbanner has yet to sire a jumps winner and his progeny are best at shorter trips, he is still from the Danehill Dancer line which thrives in this sphere and Dorchester Dom’s dam is from the family of top stayers Big Orange and Red Cadeaux as well as good juvenile sire Haafhd. Furthermore, Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record with juveniles although only two of his recent five winners came from the flat and those of a similar flat standard to Dorchester Dom have failed even to collect prize money. Gelded after running in the Brocklesby, Dorchester Dom has shown nothing that matches his debut outing and the official rating of 55 would be the ceiling of his subsequent performances.Dragon Man bg M Young 3-0-0 (47) 45
Dragon Pulse (Editor’s Note){23}(1.50) 2/1 Mad George 1st Bumper, Plumpton 2011 2-0-0 Hurdles
Max Young’s training career began on Monday with Dragon Man finishing 118 lengths behind Hiconic at Stratford. While his jumping was fine over the first two obstacles, a mistake at the third seemed to affect his confidence thereafter. Nevertheless, even with the anticipated improvement from his debut hurdling effort, he would still have a long way to go before he would be of interest in this kind of field.Dutch Admiral chg D Bridgwater 4-0-1 (83) 80
Dutch Art (Affirmed){9-e}(1.91) American family, 6/7 Danny Whizzbang
Dutch Admiral’s fourth placed finish in a Dundalk listed race back in late February stands head and shoulders above any other piece of flat form in this field. With his starting price of 66/1 there is a compulsion to pick holes in the form and while King Of Athens, who was a short head behind, most likely underperformed, the subsequent efforts of third placed Orchid Gardens in decent handicaps can rate his form in the low eighties. The maiden where he was runner up last time out has not worked out quite as well but the way he ran to the line would indicate that he can meet the stamina demands of Monday’s race. He has since left the yard of Cormac Farrell to join David Bridgwater whose record in juveniles with flat recruits is a fine three winners from seven runners. However, winning done by the yard in these events is typically done so with horses who already have good flat ratings and is not usually followed by improvement. Dutch Admiral will also be David Bridgwater’s first runner from the yard since March and while he is more than capable of getting winners in the summer, yard form can only be taken on trust. An even greater concern is his sire’s record in juvenile hurdles. Only one of his thirteen juveniles – in thirty-nine attempts – have tasted success in the sphere and that came in March 2013 when Nicky Henderson’s Little Dutch Girl won an atrocious fillies’ race at Taunton at odds of 1/7f. It is not as though Dutch Art’s hurdlers wanted for flat form as twenty-five of those losing attempts were carried out by horses who had achieved flat RPRs or 70 or above. Jumping stock in Dutch Admirals immediate pedigree is non-existent and that Affirmed was also the damsire of the top-class Theatreworld (Sadler’s Wells) offers a glimmer of light which is incapable of piercing through the gloom. It may well be that his flat form, sufficient stamina and good trainer can carry him over the line in this company but he would still be breaking the paternal mould in the process.Mick bg M Hammond 6-0-1 (59) 63
Makfi (Pivotal){6-d}(1.40) 2/1 Sayar 1st Joe Mac Novice Hurdle (G3), Tipperary 2017
Mick’s form case essentially revolves around his third place finish at Doncaster in a 1m6½f handicap on his penultimate outing. Tracking the leaders throughout in a stop start affair, he found himself outpaced halfway up the straight but was able to rally again and plug on on for a 4¼ length third without ever looking like threatening the leader. His previous best was followed by a below par effort and this inconsistency repeated itself last time at Beverley over two miles where he finished tailed off after leading for the first three quarters of the race. He did have Soldier On Parade behind him at Doncaster but while he comes ahead at the weights by a slim fraction, that advantage will be eliminated by the aforementioned’s hurdling experience. Notwithstanding, trainer Micky Hammond has a respectable record with his juvenile hurdlers boasting a 23% winners to runners strike rate with over a third of those trained on the flat at the yard winning in the sphere. However, the yard has uncharacteristically gone over three weeks without sending out a winner. There are plenty of good and successful hurdlers found on the damline (3/1 Senanjar, 3/2 Serabad, 2/1 Sendiym, 6/4 Sacundai, 6/2 Monksfield) and Pivotal mares are capable of producing winning juveniles. However, while not as daunting as Dutch Art’s record, Makfi’s winner to runner rate still stands at one from eleven despite being represented by decent flat sorts although his improvement rate of 38% between codes is still fair if below average. While Mick might be able to do alright in this discipline, he would have to be putting his best foot forward and there are too many holes in his profile to confidently expect a strong outing on his first attempt.Party Potential bg A King 7-0-0 (49) 56
Congrats (Half Ours){8-f}(4.45) US Family – 8/8 Fredo 8/10 Indietir 8/5 Nijinsky
As covered in an exercise of explaining the blooming obvious in the preview for Monday’s race, Alan King is a force to be reckoned with in the division. However, not every Alan King horse is a surefire winner and as demonstrated at Stratford by his charge Kings Creek, while it is reasonably fair to expect that his horses can jump and go about their business, they still need to be fast enough to win. What is more, the yard’s representative on Monday had a stronger profile than Party Potential by dint of stronger and more consistent form (official ratings of 62 and 49), a better attitude (Kings Creek was comparatively straightforward while Party Potential is averse to travelling or running in a straight line despite donning a range of headwear), and a more substantial pedigree. King Creeks pedigree was uninspiring but he still had a lower dosage index, his granddam’s brother was a winning chaser, his damsire sired winning juveniles and his sire at least had runners over jumps. Lowly markers still unmet by Party Potential’s pedigree. While any Alan King juvenile has to be afforded consideration, it is difficult to make a tangible case for this one outperforming the one comfortably beaten on Monday.Prince Percy bg G Moore 6-0-1 (61) 65
Sir Percy (High Chaparral){1-u} 3/1 Walk In The Park 5th Listed Hurdle, Auteuil 2007 – NH Sire
Prince Percy was initially set to compete in the first juvenile hurdle of the season, a race where he may well have gone off as favourite, but was declared a non runner after reportedly being found cast in his box which is never a fun experience for either horse or human. Hopefully he will have recovered from the experience as he is an interesting contender in Monday’s race. Particularly as his yard is enjoying a much better spell of form than it was doing three weeks earlier. Prior to his missed engagement, Prince Percy had four runs this year – three during the winter and one more on the eleventh of June. He twice finished a length and three quarters behind the winner in ten furlong handicaps at Lingfield off marks in the low sixties and the race where he was beaten into fifth of seven has worked out very well for the grade. Trainer Gary Moore boasts a very healthy winner to runner rate of 38% from a good sized sample and is well adept at winning juvenile hurdles with horses rated lower than Prince Percy. Sir Percy, also the sire of Presenting Percy, is above average in terms of his winner/runner ratio for juveniles, horses out of High Chaparral mares are no strangers to success over hurdles and Prince Percy’s granddam is a half sister to Walk In The Park (sire of Min and Douvan). If there are to be misgivings about Prince Percy’s credentials, they may well be found in his willingness to give best. He has been backed on all six of his starts to date, including into favouritism last time out, yet he remains without a win and concerns are further enhanced by observations of his races where he has been seen to hang. Nevertheless, while these factors may impact the case for his winning the race, he still habitually runs close enough to his level and if the casting experience has not left any profound psychological scars then he has every right to involve himself in this company.Soldier On Parade bg A Murphy (66) 68
Dunaden (Mujadil){1-u}(4.60) 2/1 Out Of Control 1st Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2009
The best of those with hurdling experience, Soldier On Parade came out of his Bangor race with great credit after finding only Hiconic too good and finishing a long way clear of the remainder. He brought and consistent and fair form into that race and attracted market support before the off. Racing in the vanguard, his jumping was well above average for a juvenile while leaving enough room for achievable improvement for the experience. Any stamina concerns caused by his dosage index were allayed by his sire as well as his flat efforts and rendered negligible by his Bangor performance. While he wore headgear on the flat, it was taken off for his hurdling debut and after showing little to no ill effect for its removal, he once again runs without any aids. Trainer Amy Murphy is still to send out a winning juvenile but she is still in good form and must have a strong chance of breaking that duck should Soldier On Parade replicate his Bangor run. Particularly if he finds the improvement entitled to him after his first lesson.Current chf D Roberts 1-0-0 (-) 14
Equiano (New Approach){8-c}(0.57) 2/1 First Buddy 122 5th Anniversary Hurdle, Aintree 2008
A very distant relative of Brave Inca (12/10) but a closer one to Top Strategy (5/4), Current finished according to her 100/1 odds when finishing nearly forty lengths behind Soldier On Parade at Bangor. It would be generous to call that effort promising but in fairness to her, she did jump quite well and probably burned up a fair amount of energy arguing with her jockey on the way to the start and throughout the first portions of the race. There is no real case for considering her as a contender and she is still likelier to finish closer to last than first. Nevertheless, with question marks hanging over a few of these, there might be a faint whisper of each way value in a triple digit price.Strong prospects
1. Soldier On Parade
Reasonable prospects
2. Prince Percy
3. Dutch Admiral
4. Mick
Feasible prospects
5. Current
Moderate prospects
6. Dorchester Dom
7. Party Potential
Negligible prospects
8. Dragon Man
9. Billy The SquidThe fourth juvenile hurdle of the season took place yesterday at Market Rasen and the first sans Hiconic. In the end, it went to her Bangor victim who won the race very nicely. While by pure dint of flat form and connections the field seemed fairly strong beforehand, there were enough holes in the profiles to be sceptical about the overall quality of the field and this is emphasised by the sloppy jumping by many of the runners. Nevertheless it was still ran at a fair gallop and the two with the sturdiest biographies came to the fore which makes the form more reliable. Soldier On Parade was second favourite to Dutch Admiral in one tissue and the early exchanges saw the winner offered at 7/4 but his starting price was a much better reflection of his chances. Party Potential and Dutch Admiral’s opening shows were understandable from their basic profiles and their drifts sensible. Quite why Billy The Squid started the day in single digits was peculiar and may have hinged on the stable’s decent form but his price also went in the correct direction. Dorchester Dom drifted like a barge but his attitude cleared up that mystery. The going was good.
Soldier On Parade did not win head on chest but it was a very comfortable success and was never asked to do more than stretch out. Leading from the start, he took a fairly keen hold early on and went left at the first two flights but apart from being guessy at the last was neat and tidy at the rest of his jumps. Similarly to Bangor, his pace around half a mile out had the rest of the field in trouble and without asked any serious questions was able to win quite cosily in the end. While he looked like a very nice horse, given the improvement anticipated from his Bangor effort, he was entitled to win this race as he did. There probably should not be too much read into the distance he put between himself and those behind as they all gave incorrect answers to the questions posed of them going into the race. Nevertheless, it was still a good performance for what it was and a rating in the mid 110s would be fair. Whether that is good enough to defy a penalty will depend on the competition.
Prince Percy was representing a decent yard and pedigree for the discipline as well as a fair standard of form from the flat. He missed his intended jumps debut at Newton Abbot after reportedly being found cast in his box but showed no ill effects for that experience and made a pleasing introduction. Lit up a bit early on, he settled fairly quickly and apart from a couple of confused jumps at the end of the race, he went over his hurdles nicely. The standard of this performance would be broadly in keeping with the flat form shown by this consistent horse and he can certainly be competitive in this kind of race. If there is to be a note of caution, this was the seventh time in as many career starts that he was supported in the market without winning. Perhaps too much can be read into that but this capable and consistent animal still needs to prove that he can have his head in front at the finishing line.
Mick finished ahead of the winner on the flat at Doncaster but the gap in hurdling experience accounted for many of the twenty-two lengths between the pair on this occasion. Slightly hampered at the first before being big and slow at several of his jumps, Mick was off the bridle and finding himself outpaced at the end of the back straight, but he did manage to rally into third place at the finish. This was a fair debut and he has given himself enough to work on but he would want to be a bit more confident in the future and his being inconsistent on the flat will also have to be taken into account for the time being.
Party Potential was Alan King’s second juvenile hurdler of the season after his first, Kings Creek, was beaten into fourth at Stratford last Tuesday. On paper, Party Potential did not look as strong as the aforementioned beforehand and while he jumped better than a few of these, the fluency, attitude and ultimately his form was a level below Kings Creek. He would either have to improve or find a very weak contest to be competitive in the near future.
Dutch Admiral ran a shocker on the basis of flat form and trainer but according to his sire, he did as well as can be expected. He has a nice enough size but showed no natural fluency over his obstacles here. Perhaps with sufficient time, schooling and experience he can improve on this but on this evidence, he needs to return to the flat if he is going to make use of his patent ability.
Current put up a career best here after travelling slightly better than at Bangor and was still just about in touch leaving the back. However, she finished tired and lacks the stamina to be competitive over hurdles at this stage of her career.
Billy The Squid was probably distracted when jumping wildly to the left at the first but there are no apparent excuses for his bunny hopping and other forms of non-hurdler hurdling. Was pushed along going past the stands and lost touch before leaving the back straight.
Dragon Man improved on his Stratford outing and although he needed encouraging into most of his jumps, managed to get over them alright. He does not look a natural for this discipline.
Dorchester Dom opened at a price of 8/1 in the morning, representing the strong Nigel Twiston-Davies yard. There were misgivings to be had over the quality of his form since his debut in last year’s Brocklesby but his drifting out to 66/1 was conspicuous. In the event, he barely consented to jump off and the quality of his hurdling was poor before he was pulled up with two left to jump.
Ireland’s first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place at Roscommon on Monday and is due to see several top yards in the division represented. Eleven races of its type have taken place at the course since 2011 with the average winning dosage index being 1.75 mean and 1.77 median. Roscommon being a sharp track with some of the lowest seconds-per-furlong average times would correspond with these relatively high DIs. The race, particularly with its large field size looks like a trappy affair and while a couple of nice horses might emerge, it should still be approached with caution as most of the contenders have quesions to answer.
A Mere Bagatelle bg John Joseph Hanlon (56) 50
Born To Sea (Fasliyev){11}(4.00) 3/1 Kerawi 1st Christmas Hurdle (G1), Kempton 1997
A Mere Bagatelle had three flat starts last season for Jonathan Fogarty and found himself well beaten on each occasion. There were some useful animals ahead of him in those races such as Innisfree, Shekhem and Mogul, but he was too far away from them to catch any kudos by proxy. On breeding, A Mere Bagatelle ticks several boxes as his sire has made a decent start in the discipline and his granddam was a sibling of good hurdler Kerawi. There would be nagging stamina doubts, particularly as the family sees a marked improvement with a lower dosage index, although Roscommon is one of the less demanding tracks in that regard.
Belgoprince chg A J Martin (70.4) 48
Prince Gibraltar (Bering){9-f}(0.82) 2/1 Golden Marvel Jumps winner in USA
Belgoprince had nine starts in his native France with the last three coming in claimers at Marseille’s Pont-de-Vivaux. He won the first of those races before being beaten into third and second while coming ahead at the weights. He was claimed for €16,256 after the third of those outings where he showed a decent willingness to hit the front before possibly idling close to the line. The winner that day has since been finishing mid division in handicaps, the third places has been runner up in handicaps his last three starts and the fourth’s valeur has risen to 34 so Belgoprince’s official rating of 70 looks very fair on that basis. Following a three month absense, he made his Irish debut in a Ballinrobe apprentice handicap where he finished down the field after receiving little support in the market. Only Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have sent out more juveniles than Tony Martin than 2011/12 although his winners to runners ratio is rather on the lower end of the scale and he has not recently been amongst the winners. Sire Prince Gibraltar has yet to have a hurdler in the UK or Ireland but has had four in France thus far including a winner and two placed horses – one of those being recent Arqana sales topper Prunay. His dam has a jumps winning sibling in America and is herself 3/2 with the decent French juveniles Houx Maqique and Hoc Volo. Belgoprince is certainly capable of making a useful juvenile hurdler although it remains to be seen if he is firing on all cylinders first time out.
Calidus Mirabilis bg Joseph Patrick O’Brien (68) 75
Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Handicap Hurdle, Auteuil 2018
Joseph O’Brien’s first juvenile runner of the season, Calidus Mirabilis was twice successful on the all weather at the beginning of the year when taking successive handicaps at Dundalk and then at Chelmsford. He showed a nice attitude in the process of winning at Chelmsford although he did drift to his right at Dundalk both when winning in January and when runner up in the middle of last month. The form is fair although his official flat rating of 70 may be the ceiling of his ability and a switch to hurdling at this stage may be done as an alternative to competing off his mark. Calidus Mirabilis will also be Hot Streak’s first offspring to go over jumps and while Iffraaj (also on the Zafonic sireline) produced last season’s good juvenile and stablemate Cerberus, the latter’s damsire Montjeu is a far more secure stamina influence than Oasis Dream.
Dazzling Darren chg Gavin Cromwell (68) 70
Dragon Pulse (Dark Angel){16-f}(1.67) no jumps relatives
When looking at trainers whose charges improve for the switch between codes, of those with ten or more qualifiers, Gavin Cromwell sits atop the table with 80% of his juveniles improving on their equivalent flat ratings. He is due to saddle two in this field, the first being the mount of Conor McNamara. Dazzing Darren joined the Gavin Cromwell yard for £4,200 after a winless six race season as a two year old which saw him earn a rating of 49. Following a hat-trick of wins at Chelmsford, Lingfield and Wolverhampton that rating increased to 58 and a further increase to the current 68 followed three successive seconds at this track in handicaps ranging from ten furlongs on good-to-firm to twelve furlongs on heavy. This sequence of consistency came to an end last week at Galway where he was perhaps keener than usual in first time blinkers which are left off here. The form of these runs is reasonable without being remarkable but he does have the measure of several of these rivals. Dazzing Darren’s case does rather deteriorate when considering his pedigree as Dragon Pulse has a mere 3% strike rate with his juveniles and there are no jumpers to be found within recent generations on the damline.
Differentiate bg Gavin Cromwell (55) 58
Maxios (Kris S){2-d}(1.21) 2/2 Maxios 3/1 Exit To Nowhere
The other Cromwell entry, Differentiate differentiates from stablemate Dazzling Darren in that while his flat form is weaker, his pedigree profile is stronger. Insofar as his flat form is concerned, he has improved recently and is showing consistency with two third place finishes over distances of thirteen and fourteen furlongs. However, his mark of 55 is the lowest of all those achieved by his rivals bar one and the subsequent form of his outings are in keeping with the low ratings involved. Nevertheless, Differentiate’s stallion Maxios is a force in this division with his winners to runners, wins to runs, 108+ RPRs and improvement rates all near or at the top. And although there are no jumpers on the immediate damline, Differentiate’s dam is a half sister to leading juvenile sire Maxios. Though one might ruminate on Maxios and the fondness he has for his auntie, a more interesting fact is that his uncle Exit To Nowhere was a very decent dual-purpose sire. Differentiate’s career began at the yard of Andrew Oliver under whose care Dodging Bullets, Mega Fortune and Gavin Cromwell’s winning juvenile Plain Talking also made their first steps onto the racecourse. It is difficult to get away from the low standard of Differentiate’s flat form, particularly as he is badly weighted against several of these, since his profile would otherwise make plenty of appeal.
Jeff Kidder bg Noel Meade (64) 71
Hallowed Crown (Rail Link){1-l}(0.71) no jumps relatives (2/2 Lady Kapalua)
Well beaten on his three runs last year, Jeff Kidder slipped up in the early stages of a ten furlong handicap at this track in mid June. However, he showed no ill effects for that incident and has twice been a narrowly beaten runner up in a pair of 1m5f handicaps at Sligo and Ballinrobe. The front two pulled over six lengths clear in the latter race and while Jeff Kidder was a touch flattered to finish close to the well handicapped winner Shumaker, the form was boosted when that horse followed up again at Down Royal. Noel Meade has an excellent record with juvenile hurdlers and his winners to runners rate of 39% increases to 50% when accounting only for horses he trained on the flat himself. Winning juvenile hurdles with flat ratings lower than 65 is not a problem for the trainer either with both Bat Masterson and Dodgybingo successful in this sphere with a flat rating of 63. Sire Hallowed Crown has yet to sire any jumps runners but while his sire Street Sense managed to produce a winning juvenile, the Machiavellian line is not altogether encouraging in this sphere. Neither is there much encouragement to draw from Rail Link’s influence or that of the damline. Although the negativity surrounding this pedigree is based more on an absence of solid information rather than confirmation of underperformance, it is still detrimental to the horse’s overall profile.
Little Brother bg J A Nash (57) 57
Gale Force Ten (Thunder Gulch){5-h}(3.00) 4/1 Salamah 3rd Kennel Gate NvH, Ascot 1998
Little Brother got off the mark on his eighth attempt when winning a Sligo handicap by a neck from Jeff Kidder and Differentiate and had twice placed in Roscommon handicaps leading up to that race.
The win came after a step up of three furlongs in trip after shaping as though further would suit when twice placed over ten furlongs. The form of that win has stood up with the next three home each finishing placed in similar handicaps and while he was a beaten favourite last time at Killarney, it did not represent a major regression. Notwithstanding, the gap of seven pounds in the official ratings between himself and Jeff Kidder seems fair. The records of sire and trainer in this sphere are respectable without being prolific.
Longclaw bc Gordon Elliott (84) 83
Kitten’s Joy (Dixie Union){3-d}(2.38) american family
After beginning at the Curragh in July and finishing third behind Group One winners Alpine Star and Santiago, Longclaw’s two year old career saw him contest a listed contest at Kentucky Downs where he was able to pick up nearly forty thousand pound’s worth of third place prize money. After another run at Churchill Downs in November, Longclaw crossed the Atlantic once again to resume his career in Ireland. His return came in less esteemed company in a Roscommon maiden but would finish down the field after drifting to 11/4 from a morning price of 11/10. He was then tried in cheekpieces for his next start but was beaten even further, albeit in slightly stronger company. Gordon Elliott is the leading trainer of juveniles in Ireland with fifty-five individual winners since 2011/12 and the best of Longclaw’s flat form is far superior to anything else produced by this field’s runners. However, his profile is a regressive one and there is no salvation to be found in either his pedigree or the fact that he is still an entire.
Orchestral Rain bg W McCreery (-) 69
Born To Sea (Val Royal){23 }(2.43) 2/1 Crafty Codger 1st 3YO Hurdle, Punchestown 2014
With just the one start, Orchestral Rain is the least exposed of those with experience and that run came in a Killarney maiden where he finished a neck behind Longclaw. It was not a run without promise as after a slow start, he was pushed into a promising position where perhaps too much use was made of him. He lost his place turning in but kept on without being given too hard a time and shaped as though he would very much improve for the experience. Willie McCreery has not saddled a jumps winner in over five years but he can get improvement between codes out of his juveniles and has enjoyed three winners on the flat in the past fortnight including one at Galway. Born To Sea counts the classy A Wave Of The Sea and Aspire Tower along with triple winner Malangan among his early crops of juveniles – the latter two carrying DIs above 2.50. Orchestral Rain’s dam is a half sister to winning juvenile Crafty Codger from the family of Alflora, Ardross and Scorpion. His trainer’s recent record in jumps races is a concern and Orchestral Rain is mostly an unproven entity but an expectable improvement on his debut run would put his flat form close to the best available from this field and his pedigree has a very favourable feel.
Strip Light chg M Halford (68) 67
Outstrip (Dark Angel){1-p}(2.00) 3/1 Fine Lace 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Chepstow 2010
It has been a very long time since Michael Halford has sent out a juvenile hurdler but he was the handler of Triumph Hurdle third Golden Cross early on in his training career. However, while Golden Cross’s sire Goldmark was a stamina influence who stood as a jumping sire, the same may not ring true for Outstrip. Strip Light has yet to finish within seven lengths of the winner in his three starts on the flat although it would be inaccurate to say he has found himself particularly disgraced. Nevertheless, the official mark of 68 looks steep and while there are capable juveniles on the damline, others here have more solid profiles.
Summit Rock bg T G McCourt (56) 69
Exceed And Excel (Iceman){16-a}(1.00) 2/2 Quick Jack 1st Galway Hurdle (136), Galway 2015
Summit Rock was initially handed a rating of 74 after three runs in Dundalk maidens for Dermot Weld last year. That rating was based on the sole occasion he was beaten less than four lengths and that came in a maiden that has produced only one subsequent winner. After selling at Goffs for €6000 in February, Summit Rock has been well beaten in four handicaps and his current rating of 56 is greater than the sum of those efforts. While he is related to winners on the dam’s side, including Galway Hurdle winner Quick Jack, his sire has a poor record in this sphere.
Tipperary Moon bg Des Donovan (50) 40
Sea Moon (Vale Of York){3-d}(1.29) 3/0 Celestial Choir 1st Dipper Novices’ Chase, Newcastle 1998
Tipperary Moon will be the first jumps runner for his sire but his damsire produced two winning juveniles of his own and his great granddam was a useful chaser in the nineties. However, the standard of his three flat runs is poor and his trainer has yet to saddle a jumps winner.
Lady Kapalua bf J P Dempsey Unraced
Maxios (Champs Elysees){1-l}(0.76) no jumps relatives (2/2 Jeff Kidder)
Lady Kapula is an unraced filly from a family with no close jumping relatives and from a yard for whom none of its six juveniles have won since 2011/12. The aforementioned Maxios is a stallion worthy of regard and while Champs Elysees mares have yet to produce any jumps runners in the UK or Ireland, he is an above average stallion in the division. It would be difficult to build a case on her sire and damsire alone but she would not be entirely dismissed.
Merry Poppins grf J Motherway Unraced
Authorized (Peintre Celebre){1-w}(0.68) 2/1 In On The Act 3rd Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Plumpton 2006
Another unraced filly representing another top class sire of juvenile hurdlers. Only Mastercraftsman (21) has sired more winning juveniles than Authorized (20) since 2011/12 and the latter has done so with fewer runners. Peintre Celebre is also an above average damsire whose statistics are only marginally inferior to those of Champs Elysees. Merry Poppins will be only the second juvenile hurdler from the yard since 2011/12 and once again, a strong argument for her can not be made based on decent sirelines alone.
Runcible bf Miss Katy Brown (59) 61
Ivawood (Tiger Hill){9-c}(1.67) 2/1 Cyborg 122 1st Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2010
First Reserve. Was not disgraced in her defeats in maiden company over ten furlongs at Lingfield or Leopardstown but has since disappointed in two subsequent outings. Ivawood is zero from one with juvenile hurdlers and his sire Zebedee has a poor record in the division. Tiger Hill is respectable in the sphere but there is not much else on which to hinge her case.
Hay Kimbello blg Denis Gerard Hogan (-) 24
Alhebayeb (Key Of Luck){6-e}(2.00) 3/2 Midnight Legend 3rd Aintree Hurdle (G1), Aintree 1999
Second reserve. Was beaten a combined forty-nine lengths in two maidens last year and was beaten twenty-three lengths when 150/1 for his reappearance at Gowran Park in June. Related to Midnight Legend and Key Of Luck is an able damsire but neither the records of her sire nor trainer in this division inspire enthusiasm.
Voice Of Hope brg Andrew Slattery (63) 72
Poet’s Voice (Montjeu){14-c}(0.82) 3/1 Pack The Punch 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2015
Third reserve. Has not raced this season and his form rather tailed off towards the backend of the last campaign. Should stay on breeding and his sire, trainer and damsire are not without their merits in the sphere. Damline also features good jumps stallions Sholokhov and Soldier Of Fortune. Perhaps worthier of a place in this field than a few of the declared runners but still has an absense and loss of form to overcome.Strong prospects
1. Orchestral Rain
2. Jeff Kidder
3. Belgoprince
Reasonable prospects
4. Dazzling Darren
5. Calidus Mirabilis
6. Longclaw
Feasible prospects
7. Differentiate
8. Little Brother
Moderate prospects
9. Lady Kapalua
10. Voice Of Hope (R)
11. Merry Poppins
12. Strip Light
13. A Mere Bagatelle
Negligible prospects
14. Summit Rock
15. Tipperary Moon
16. Runcible
17. Hay Kimbello
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