- This topic has 213 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Is this thread still going? Expected to see it after the Triumph Trial today.
As did I. I’m both flattered and disappointed by the slide of this *award winning* thread in my absence.
I’m currently engaged in a battle with some pesky demons which has necessitated my withdrawal from getting too objectively involved with all things equine (which is stupid because I lost most of my money on darts and football and was actually showing a profit on horseys). As such, I’ve been unable to pay this particular sphere its’ due attention.
Interested in thoughts on Bivouac’s dire performance. He settled better than most, was reasonably strong in the market and had he confirmed his previous run with Storm Force Ten he would have been challenging the winner. It looked like a totally inept ride from Fehily but there surely must have been more to it than that?
I was surprised to see him (and Ibis Du Rheu) line up in the first place given my previous contention that he’s a long term prospect.
Given that Bivouac had been held off the pace in his previous starts, and that he was given every chance turning in, I don’t really see what Fehily did wrong. He was already getting outpaced approaching the last and that final flight blunder didn’t really make the slightest difference to his prospects. Henderson suggested afterwards that he’s a stayer and that the utter lack of pace in the early stages effectively spoiled his chances. The fact Bivouac is a nephew of Saint Are would back up this sentiment. Again, my only concern would be what he was doing in that race in the first place.
I think you said it yourself there was no pace. Surely a jockey should adapt to circumstance rather than just go with his own style of riding. Invariably, Fehily will just sit in behind. As regards participation he clearly had the form to warrant his place and that previous form would have put him somewhere near the winner. For whatever reason he didn’t reproduce it. Perhaps the ground didn’t help as to me he doesn’t have a soft ground action.
I was surprised to see him (and Ibis Du Rheu) line up in the first place given my previous contention that he’s a long term prospect.
I foolishly trusted that Paul Nicholls must have been seeing something from Ibis Du Rheu to have pitched him in at this level this early. It was one hell of an ask to face a hot favourite for the Triumph at this stage of a career. It back-fired spectacularly anyway.
Some people seem to think it’s game over for the Triumph and that they may as well give the prize to Peace And Co now. If anything I was encouraged that the 3 length defeat of Karezak at least put my hopes on Hargam and Bristol De Mai into the same ball-park as the Henderson hotpot. Bristol De Mai beat Karezak 6 lengths and with Peace And Co giving the same horse 3lbs and a beating half the size it seems to give hope that it won’t be all one-way traffic on the big day.
Nicky Henderson said the following regarding Bivouac:-
On the fifth home Henderson added: "That was no use to Bivouac. He is definitely a stayer. We came to Cheltenham thinking the track would suit him better but they didn’t go fast enough anyway. I suspect we didn’t think he was a Triumph Hurdle horse anyway. He is one for the future.
Third horse Zarib was cited by his trainer as probably going The Fred Winter route now.
I am hoping better ground may yet see Hargam to better effect and perhaps show himself as one of those horses who might just collar a favourite near the finish
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Bristol De Mai takes on older horses tomorrow in the 1.15 at Sandown. It’s an interesting deviation from his own Juvenile division and he faces only three rivals in the form of Garde La Victoire, Jollyallan and Flute Bowl.
Garde La Victoire won The Greatwood and ran well enough off big weights in handicaps thereafter without looking upwardly mobile towards better class.
Jollyallan has landed a trio of novice hurdles and looked on the upgrade without having actually won a race of any great note yet.
Bristol De Mai looked good when beating reliable yardstick Karezak and he gets 11lbs from Garde La Victoire and 9lbs from Jollyallan tomorrow. He was the subject of good support before his last win but the ground was heavy that day and won’t be as soft as that tomorrow.
Flute Bowl looks totally up against it.
I am hoping Bristol De Mai can win this well and head to the Triumph Hurdle at about 5/1 as one of the big dangers to hot fav Peace And Co.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am hoping Bristol De Mai can win this well and head to the Triumph Hurdle at about 5/1 as one of the big dangers to hot fav Peace And Co.
Owned by the same people as the favourite Steve. Owner’s rep said they want to keep their horses apart. Suspect they’re giving BDM a run in this to give them some idea of where to go. Top Notch is another juvenile in the same colours.
Is there a supplementary stage for the Champion Hurdle?
They’ve also got a well fancied Supreme Hurdle candidate L’Ami Surge.
Value Is EverythingThey must be pretty confident if they are going to let Peace And Co run as their sole representative Ginger. I don’t make him the cert some people have him pegged down as. Still, it’s their choice but I would rather have two chances in one good race than try to spread the jam a bit thin and end up with nowt.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If I were Munir would run Peace And Co in the Triumph and would’ve entered Bristol De Mai in the Neptune and Top Notch in the Coral Cup. Although if it is genuine good ground wouldn’t run BDM at Cheltenham.
Value Is EverythingHow do you feel about 6/4 Bristol De Mai tomorrow Ginger? I’m quite tempted by those odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nap of the day Steve for me.
Regards the Triumph perhaps the trainer was watching Snooker and got texted a video clip of Peace and Co and well you know the rest…….Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Nap of the day Steve for me.
Regards the Triumphperhaps the trainer was watching Snooker and got texted a video clip of Peace and Co and well you know the rest…….
Could be Nathan, "The Thunder From Down Under" wasn’t just Neil Robertson but also Nigel Twisted-Colon Davies as well
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The owners also have Vercingetorix who won impressively at Limerick on his sole start for Gordon Elliott. Goes to Leopardstown next weekend for the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, the race which has produced the last two Triumph winners and usually sorts out the best of the Irish juveniles.
How do you feel about 6/4 Bristol De Mai tomorrow Ginger? I’m quite tempted by those odds.
For me, there doesn’t seem much value in the race Dave. No denying Bristol De Mai was very impressive at Chepstow. Low in experience, bags of potential, likely to improve but imo needs to against this pair despite the big weight pull (has less weight because of being a juvenile). Has quite a rounded action and remains to be seen how he’ll get on if the ground is only good-soft tomorrow (officially soft, good-soft in places now). It was heavy in Wales which could yet be his ideal. That said, considering his potential Bristol De Mai is a worthy favourite, most likely winner.
Jollyallan is a novice (older than BDM) and could be Cheltenham bound himself. More experienced, only defeat in a Grade 1 bumper. Proven on both soft and good. Progressive and impressive himself last time. Might be ridden more prominently than the favourite.
Garde La Victoire is a decent horse to judge the other two. Is the established horse and could put experience to good effect. However, it’ll be disappointing if at least one of the other two don’t improve past him.
Forget the other runner, totally outclassed.
For me, no horse appeals as over-priced at current prices.
Value Is EverythingI see it like Gingertipster that Bristol De Mai is home on real Heavy ground and there he shows his absolute best, the Chepstow form was also one has to mention versus the Doyen bred Golden Doyen who flopped that day, we could all see the last weeks how Doyen( Ger) bred odds on newcomers failed to act on Heavy. Bristol De Mai has to prove again today on better ground and there shouldnt be value in backing him on his not best ground.
Edit: I just had a look in raceform and there the ground from Bristol De Mais Chepstow run is measured as Good to Soft, so that changes my mind and i will play him on that basis as he was the only horse that day that ran faster than median time.
That Chepstow ground was never "good-soft" Observer. Then again, the ground at Sandown has now changed to similarly very soft ground Bristol De Mai faced in Wales.
I’d take 6/4 with that going, but he’s too short for me now.
Value Is EverythingVery tame effort from Bristol De Mai there and late market support for Jollyallan, who travelled well, wasn’t rewarded either.
I don’t think the ground was a factor, and on today’s form I doubt Bristol De Mai has any chance regardless of where he goes at Cheltenham. Most disappointing and both upwardly mobile looking horses were seen off by the exposed looking horse.
ps 20/1 BDM for the Triumph now. No Danger!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Don’t think that is BDM’s form for whatever reason. May be he’s more of a stayer. Chepstow race was a well run race on heavy ground, stamina test. This didn’t seem slowly run exactly, but GDV had something of an easy lead. May be something isn’t quite right with Bristol.
Jollyallan ran a fine race, just isn’t as experienced as GDV and the Johnston horse is a battler. Still has plenty of potential, particularly over fences. Plenty of speed (last time was on better ground). Although with high head carriage it’s possible the "greeness" is a slight show of "temperament", may never find much off the bridle.
Value Is EverythingI get the feeling that todays ground was more wet deep than Bristol De Mais run in Chepstow where the ground maybe despite official description Heavy wasnt as deep and maybe more frozen hard? I rewatched the video of Chepstow and they did run fast and the ground doesnt look deep wet at all, might be Bristol doesnt like Heavy ground the opposite what we thought.Why is it that Raceform Interactive who analyses the times puts a Good to Soft after the race? They are quite accurate normally.
I get the feeling that todays ground was more wet deep than Bristol De Mais run in Chepstow where the ground maybe despite official description Heavy wasnt as deep and maybe more frozen hard? I rewatched the video of Chepstow and they did run fast and the ground doesnt look deep wet at all, might be Bristol doesnt like Heavy ground the opposite what we thought.Why is it that Raceform Interactive who analyses the times puts a Good to Soft after the race? They are quite accurate normally.
Look at all the races on the day at Chepstow Observer. How slow they all were compared to Racing Post Standard Times. 30, 35, 37, 20 (BDM), 43 (Welsh National), 32, 28. Even when allowing for how longer distances alter those numbers and if some might be slower run. Whether it’s called (very) soft or heavy, times suggests the ground was softer than good-soft. With BDM being a good horse in a grade 1 at a shorter distance than all bar the last – putting up a better time than some other races.
If you still believe it good-soft Observer, take a look at Emperor’s Choice’s life time form. Winner of the Welsh Grand National on the day. Needs an extreme stamina test – long distances and very soft/heavy to produce his best.
I know Raceform do their own going assessment and am surprised they give it as good-soft. Do they give the Welsh National as good-soft too? Timeform also do their own going assessments and called the ground heavy.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.