- This topic has 213 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Cheers for this. All the more reason to get excited over Peace And Co. What did Kalkir record at Fairyhouse for comparison’s sake?
There is always a chance a horse will not run so well given different conditions. But sire Falco although himself by Pivotal won the French Guineas on good-firm (by far best run). Dam didn’t run but dam’s sire Linamix also winner of the same race in course record time (pretty firm). More’s to the point, P&C did not show the exaggerated rounded action so often associated with horses needing very soft conditions to be at their best. So the chance of him needing soft to produce his best is significantly reduced. Indeed, because there’s so much pace in the pedigree there’s a chance an increased test of speed is in his favour, although full brother Piccolino stayed 2m2f.
I can see the arguement of Hargam being better on good ground, by a known good ground sire in Sinndar and seemed to have a top-of-the-ground action.
You make a solid point about Peace And Co’s potential to handle firmer ground. I’ve padded out the case looking at the winning offspring of his dam (1/1), his granddam (2/1) and his granddam’s dams (2/2) – his cousins if you will.
léger : fast / hard
bon : good / firm
souple : dead
collant : slow
lourd : heavy / soft1/1
Piccolino (dual purpose)
Wins – (2) tres souple (1) bon
Form figures on bon – 17
Form figures on souple – 32/1
Peace Burg (3rd Falmouth – bon)
Wins – (2) bon (2) souple
Form figures on bon – 11575
Form figures on souple – 141603Peace Touch (dual purpose)
Wins – (2) très souple
Form figures on bon – 54
Form figures on souple – 7Silver Mountain (flat)
Wins – (2) bon (1) souple (1) lourd (1) unknown
Form figures on bon – 6-22-057349 – 0016701 – 07470
Form figures on souple -12-33-99Peace Dream (5th French 1000gns – bon)
Wins – (1) bon,souple (1) lourd (2) unknown
Form figures on bon – 5
Form figures on souple – 3Peace Fonic (dual purpose)
Wins – (1) souple
Form figures on bon – 673
Form figures on souple – 3-1362/2
Peace Of Oasis (flat)
Wins – (2) bon (1) souple
Form figures on bon – 116-5
Form figures on souple – 56-1Peace Mine (dual purpose)
Wins – (2) souple (1) bon
Form figures on bon – 12
Form figures on souple – 701F108Overall, this would indicate a preference for good to soft but a clear ability to handle good nonetheless.
Looked at some of this myself. Although agree with your conclusion and is interesting in itself BH; I am generally sceptical about French going reports. Don’t know if Mike has any time data, but they seem to be even less accurate than British courses despite penetrometer readings.
Value Is EverythingSome more breeding information:
Peace And Co
‘s dam
Peace Lina
was unraced but is a full sister to
Palme D’or
(Ire) who was fairly fancied (under 6/1) for the 1997 French Oaks. Disappointing 10th of 12 before winning both her final two starts including Group 3 Prix De La Flore at 1m2f110y on a soft surface (maiden winner on good). Their dam
Pampa Bella
(Fr) loved soft conditions and was also a Group 3 (Prix Penelope) 10f winner, placed in two Group 1’s too, Prix Saint-Alary and French Oaks. Both by
Saddlers Wells
,
Peace Lina
and
Palme D’or
have a more illustrious half brother in
Pistolet Bleu
(by
Top Ville
), one of the best horses of the 90’s and suited by a test of stamina at a mile and a half. Impressive 5 lengths winner of the Group 1 Prix De Saint Cloud before injury stopped him from contesting the Arc; for which (if I remember rightly) he was ante-post favourite. Effective on both a soft and firm surfaces.
Pistolet Bleu
‘s best known jumps progeny are
Sizing Europe
, dual Tote Gold Trophy winner
Geos
, Grand National second
Cappa Bleu
and dual Scottish National winner
Merigo
; all of which act well on good ground. On the flat, although
Pistolet Bleu
‘s progeny had fewer runs on a firm surface than good or soft and less money won – they had a better strike rate than on other surfaces.
Value Is EverythingSorry for missing yesterday’s race but I was on my way to Bosnia to celebrate my birthday although the race was robbed of most of its interest with the withdrawal of the expensive New Street anyway.
Today is my birthday and I’m not even going to get a chance to watch today’s Newbury race but because I love you guys and gals and have nothing better to do for the next hour, I will give it a quick once over. Three of the hurdlers with experience set a fair standard and the depth and standard of newcomers is intriguing so I imagine if there’s an authoritative winner then graded class ought to beckon.
Blue Atlantic
sets the standard for the experienced runners with his win and place at Market Rasen. He looked in trouble a long way from home on his debut run as his jumping was slow and untidy. However, he managed to arrange himself and plugged on to beat a reluctant type and another who lacked for fitness. His next start was more encouraging as his jumping was much cleaner and was beaten little over a length whilst giving weight to a promising newcomer in Seamour and an ex-French Alan King animal. The form of the former race hasn’t been tested in any meaningful way and the latter is represented by Celestino and Final Countdown, neither of whom have boosted it at all. Overall, it is reasonable at an average level but it would be a surprise if there wasn’t at least one newcomer who can’t take advantage of his penalty.
Trendsetter
did not seem up to a great deal on the flat but he found improvement with more testing conditions culminating with a narrow victory off a mark of 70 in a Redcar 1m6f handicap. Trendsetter’s debut run yielded a promising third and though the maiden didn’t appear to be strong at the time, it has produced two winners Catterick winners and he wouldn’t be far off Blue Atlantic through Final Countdown so he’s entitled to improve for the experience and make a solid effort.
Magic Magnolia
was listed placed at Wetherby on her penultimate start and whilst she wouldn’t be listed class, she is a likable filly. Still a maiden after nine runs on both codes, her second came in a substandard Wensleydale hurdle where she had the run of the race and the form is not much better than the average juvenile in any case. Next time, she contested one of the strongest races of the season behind Golden Doyen and Hargam and was naturally outclassed. Her sights are set a little lower here and she does deserve to win a race but she wouldn’t be winning in this company.
Majestic Sun
was consistent enough on the flat for such a keen type and was able to win one of his twelve starts in that discipline in an Epsom handicap over a mile and a half from a perch of 67. He blew any semblance of a chance on his jumps debut with his hard pulling and though he wouldn’t be written off entirely just yet, that run would be discouraging enough in the context of this company without looking at his class and questionable ability to handle soft.
Lucky Dottie
managed to win on the flat but it was in a shocking seller at Lingfield and her official rating of 43 is about right. She started at 100/1 on her hurdles debut over course and distance last month and was duly tailed off.
Winner Massagot
made one start on the flat in France and that came with a very dominant success at Royan (white colours, purple cap) over a mile and three quarters on souple ground. The form of those in behind doesn’t amount to a great deal – the runner up finished third in a Bordeaux hurdle, the third was runner up at Strasbourg and the fifth managed to run into a place at Auteuil for Guillaume Macaire. He has been described as a straightforward type who has schooled well and he very much falls into the category of "could be anything". John Ferguson does very well indeed with his juvenile hurdlers (Ruacana, Commisioned Asaid all performed in Grade Ones) and he saddles his first juvenile of the season here in
Jalingo
. A half brother to Al Queddaaf, Jalingo developed into a consistent type on the flat for Mark Johnson rounding off his campaign with an official rating of 84. His win came over nine furlongs on good to soft at Hamilton by four and a half lengths and he wasn’t beaten any more than three lengths in his four subsequent starts over a mile and a quarter and a mile and a half so the trip shouldn’t be a problem and the ground should also be fine. He’s shown signs of greenness and wasn’t always the sharpest starter but he has a fine attitude overall and although the in-form trainer has yet to register a win at Newbury, he does have a 33% strike rate when teaming up with AP. Another steady and consistent type,
Ice Slice
is the first juvenile of the season for predominant flat trainer James Eustace. His best effort on the flat was his latest one which was a three length win at this course on soft ground over a mile. That win took him to a career high of 81 but his previous forays over further were disappointing and he isn’t a certain stayer on pedigree either.
Zarib
was roughly as good as any of these during his flat career for Mick Halford and standing at 16.1 hands, sold for €56,000 at Goffs in October. He gained his only victory at Dundalk last Autumn as a two year old but his career best came when third over a mile and a half at Gowran in a handicap which has produced four subsequent winners. From the extensive jumping Aga Khan line, it is hoped he fares better than the similarly bred Zarawi has done this term.
Lacock
is still a maiden after ten starts. He showed promise as a two year old but during his three year old campaign, his rating dropped twelve pounds and this alleviation still brought no success. He left the Henry Candy yard for 9,000 guineas at the end of October.
Ding Ding
is rated poorly and her best efforts on the flat came at Brighton and Bath which would be a world apart from what’s required here in any case.
Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Jalingo
2. Winner Massagot
3. ZaribTrendsetter 2/3
Rigour Back Bob
Stayers’ Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2011
Zarib 3/1Zafarabad
3rd Champion Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 1999 (4/3 Zaidpour, 4/3 Zaynar, 4/2 Zaiyad etc – 4/4 Zarawi)
Jalingo 5/2Her Honour
5th Stayers’ Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 1995 (.5 Al Queddaaf, 5/3 Dubai Seven Stars)
Blue Atlantic 5/3Danseur Etoile
1st Prix Finot (Listed), Auteuil 1989
Lucky Dottie 5/5Locksmith
2nd Adonis Hurdle (G2), Kempton 2002 (5/2 Rhyme Royal)
Majestic Sun 3/4Tyrolean Dream
1st Free Handicap Hurdle (115), Chepstow 1998
Ding Ding 3/1Clifdon Fog
3rd Champion Hurdle (Listed G1), Fairyhouse 1995
Ice Sling 3/1Quinmaster
5th Champion Novice Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2008 (5/2 Shardakhan)
Winner Massagot 2/1Jolie Citor
6th Juvenile Hurdle, Toulouse 2000
Lacock .5Herbalist
6th Juvenile Claiming Hurdle, Ludlow 2013
Magic Magnolia No jumps relatives – American BredSires
Jalingo – Cape Cross (7)
Zarib – Azamour (4)
Magic Magnolia – Azamour (4)
Lucky Dottie – Lucky Story (1)
Majestic Sun – King’s Best (1)
Ice Sling – Dark Angel (1)
Trendsetter – Mastercraftsman
Blue Atlantic – Stormy Atlantic
Ding Ding – Winker Watson
Winner Massagot – Muhaymin
Lacock – Compton PlaceCheers Joe
Cheers No Idea Today’s post was actually pretty rushed so I wasn’t delighted with it. That said, I’m generally unhappy with most of my posts in this thread for one reason or another. But the more I do it, the more I learn.
Kalkir returns to action at Leopardstown tomorrow and whilst he looks head and shoulders above anything seen in Ireland this season, the unbeaten duo of Thunder Zone and Crafty Codger should keep him honest whilst Dai Bando is a fair yardstick and Kabjoy, who was below his best last time, is entitled to finish a little closer.
Fontwell hosts its fourth Juvenile of the season and it would probably be as weak as any seen at the West Sussex venue this term.
Bishop Wulstan
is the only winner jumps winner in the field and that success came at Ludlow when a 25/1 shot in an October maiden contest. Whilst it helped that the favourite underperformed, his victory wasn’t as unexpected as the price implied as he was capable on a going day for Richard Hannon on the flat. The form of that Ludlow contest has stood up nicely for a race of its nature as the runner up since took a handicap and of the horses whom finished in behind to have ran since, every one of them has finished placed. Next time out, he contested a listed race (in name only) at Wetherby where the race wasn’t run to suit and he found it all happening too quickly but he kept on at his pace and was beaten by less than nine lengths. The runner up was predictably well beaten at Cheltenham but she did run with credit at Newbury last week to give the form some credence. Bishop Wulstan fell heavily in the middle stages on his penultimate start but showed no ill effects when putting up a career best in either discipline last time out at Doncaster. Although most of his career has been spent on good ground or firmer, he had no problems handling the soft conditions and whilst the tactical astuteness of the conditional on board was questionable, his mount’s stamina wasn’t as he kept on from a mile out and may well have put his head in front given another fifty yards. The same jockey (who happens to be the trainer’s assistant) takes the ride again here and whilst he only has two career wins to his name, the seven pounds will offset the penalty.
Libeccio
was a reasonable sort on the flat for Andrew Balding, winding up with a rating of 75 before joining Charlie Mann for 36,000 guineas. Going into his jumps debut at Warwick, there were concerns over his attitude and his ability to handle soft and these concerns were well founded as his jumping wasn’t the neatest and he finished eleventh of thirteen. He could be capable of being competitive in this sphere but he might need firmer ground and a handicap mark first.
Dino Mite
is a half sister to the sadly departed Cockney Sparrow and made her debut in the same mares listed race at Aintree in which her illustrious sister finished second behind L’Unique a few seasons ago. Unfortunately for connections, she could not follow in those footsteps as she finished fifty-nine lengths behind the winner. Her tendency to jump right handed didn’t help her cause either and does not bode well for a return to a left handed track.
Poetic Justice
made his debut in a five runner junior bumper at Towcester towards the end of last month and he found himself finishing a well beaten fourth. The gelding who finished twenty-nine lengths ahead of him subsequently finished last in a Plumpton novice. Poetic Justice’s connections are also responsible for Norse Legend who despite being useless on the flat, won at Plumpton before finishing a close runner up under a penalty in a much stronger contest at this venue earlier this month so if there’s money for the Chris Gordon, it would instil hope in an otherwise hopeless cause.
Whilst all horses are lovely and wonderful, those with experience don’t have one picturing a future at the Cheltenham festival. However, the two newcomers aren’t any more inspiring – lovely though they both are. Dan Skelton is having an impressive second season as a trainer and hasn’t done at all badly with his juveniles this term. Following the respectable placed efforts of Boss des Mottes and Adrakhan, his juveniles came off the mark with the likeable Zarib last week and he hopes to repeat the dose with
Rock Of Leon
. The son of Rock Of Gibraltar wouldn’t be in the same league on the flat as Zarib but he was at least able to win in that discipline before leaving Michael Bell for 16,000 guineas. He took a while to get going but he found his groove when stepping up to distances greater than a mile and a half and narrowly broke his duck in an extended two mile handicap at Wolverhampton. His other best effort came in another low grade handicap over two miles on firm ground at Nottingham. The form of both of these races have worked out well and it’s reasonable to assume that over two miles on the flat, he’s well handicapped off 57. Nevertheless, this is still not a high level of form, he’s ran poorly on his only two attempts on soft ground, two mile two may still not be far enough over hurdles and he was not one to be relied upon in terms of disposition.
Par Three
will be the first juvenile representative for Tony Carrol since June, a yard which can train juvenile winners such as Blazing Buck and Akdam. Furthermore, in Azamour, he has a sire that has, in the past, produced classy juveniles such as Zarkandar, Third Intention and Dawalan and has been in flying form with this season’s crop with Karezak, Seamour and Zarib making the winners enclosure and Magic Magnolia putting in numerous respectable efforts. However, he left the Jessica Harrington yard for just €7,500 after a six run career that saw him finish no closer than fifth. There’s every reason to believe he will stay the trip and he is well connected but the fact he left a jumps trainer before being tried in that discipline has to be a concern.
Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Bishop Wulstan
2. Rock Of Leon
3. Dino MiteDino Mite .5
Cockney Sparrow
1st Scottish Champion Hurdle (G2, 148), Ayr 2014
Bishop Wulstan .5Gibb River
1st Handicap Hurdle (144), Sandown 2012 (.5 Goblet Of Fire 3/2 Mon Michel 3/3 Sword Fish)
Poetic Justice 4/2Edberg
2nd Melling Chase (G1), Aintree 1992 (4/3 Comanche War Paint)
Rock Of Leon 4/3Ikra
1st Prix Achille-Fould (Listed), Auteuil 2007
Libeccio 3/1Poet
1st Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Par Three 2/1Lexington Bay
3rd Novices’ Hurdle, Wetherby 2012
Sires
Rock Of Leon – Rock Of Gibraltar(8)
Par Three – Azamour (4)
Libeccio – Shirocco (3)
Bishop Wulstan – Oratorio (1)
Poetic Justice – Byron
Dino Mite – Doctor DinoA fascinating clash of three old sparring partners tomorrow at Chepstow where Golden Doyen, Karezak and Old Guard clash in the Future Champions Finale Hurdle at 1.55pm
Betting has Golden Doyen narrow favourite from Karezak and Old Guard just a shade farther back in the betting.
Technically speaking Old Guard has beaten Karezak, who in turn has beaten Golden Doyen but Golden Doyen beat Hargam, who then beat Karezak.
Golden Doyen has progressed and was gritty when nailing Hargam after the latter horse had travelled better and looked like he might win it.
For me I would see the logic of taking the once raced winner and hope he also progresses as the three times raced horses have, and he will need to to offset the 6lbs he is worse in with Karezak for a neck beating he gave him.
I think Old Guard is a the value at 10/3 with Golden Doyen and Karezak both as low as 2/1 with some firms.
An interesting race as a pointer to Hargam’s form as well.
Any betting on Steve Mellish doing a Kazerak again?
ps Old Guard can’t win this according to the market. His odds have doubled to 6/1 from a general 3/1 last night. Slightly more confidence in Golden Doyen than Karezak and very interesting that the other Twiston-Davies horse is the one for money this morning (Bristol De Mai), suggesting he’s the one that’s expected for the stable)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Did you take into account the manner of his victory or could his figure have feasibly been more impressive? Also, I would love to hear your thoughts on any of the UK juvenile hurdlers.
The speed figures I compile are on the day, I do not add any extra points, if for example I believe a horse is worth another 10 lengths.
If I come across any others like this who impress on the clock, I will certainly put them up.
The top French 3yo’s:
(note that
Kada Rique
appears 3 times)
12-Oct-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Heavy
Bonito Du Berlai
s (FR) 2/5F
123
23-Sep-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Very Soft
Bonito Du Berlai
s (FR) 4/5F
122
17-Sep-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Very Soft
Kada Rique
(FR) 41/10
116
12-Oct-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Heavy
Solonder
(FR) 9/2
113
17-Sep-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Very Soft
Kotkikova
(FR) EvensF
113
29-Apr-14 Enghien (FR) (3yo) (2m110y) 2m½f Heavy
Kada Rique
(FR) 11/2
113
27-Sep-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Very Soft
Bristol De Ma
i (FR) 41/1
111
27-Sep-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Very Soft
Brin De Thaix
(FR) 25/1
111
23-Sep-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Very Soft
Saint D’Arcole
(FR) 8/1
110
23-Sep-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Very Soft
Champ De Bataille
(FR) 23/10
110
18-Apr-14 Enghien (FR) (3yo) (2m110y) 2m½f Very Soft
Top Notch
(FR) 6/5F
109
12-Oct-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Heavy
Ballotin
(FR) 13/2
108
23-Sep-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Very Soft
Parchimbault
(FR) 173/10
108
02-Jun-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) (2m1f110y) 2m1½f Very Soft
Kada Rique
(FR) 156/10
108
17-Sep-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) 2m2f Very Soft
Solonder
(FR) 7/2
107
02-Jun-14 Auteuil (FR) (3yo) (2m1f110y) 2m1½f Very Soft
Wiccalina
(FR) 22/5
106
Mike.
This one slipped by me,
Bristol De Ma
was clear top rated on my figures.
Didn’t look at the racing today, as I spent 5 hours rating every meeting from yesterdayNational Hunt Ratings:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shar … a4db803fc9
Mike.
Interested in your thoughts on Bivouac?
Normally a Henderson horse is near enough Triumph favourite if it wins a juvenile at a decent track. I presume this one is only 33/1 because he is expected to swerve the Triumph? Personally, I liked him more than any other juvenile (Bonito aside) this season but that might be because he looks as he has the scope to improve significantly with more experience. It was also a plus to see him find something under pressure after the last flight mistake.
Thought he did really well to win conceding the weight and being taken wide. Bookmakers still appear to be betting on the basis that the Triumph is not on the agenda. Based on his two wins you could easily have him around half the current best price of 20/1.
Bristol De Mai
topped the speed figures yesterday at
Chepstow
, with a speed figure of
118
.
Going allowance
-1.03s/f
(heavy)
Chepstow
27-Dec-14
12:25 Stilletto 2m4f
96
12:55 Cogry 3m
98
01:25 Awaywiththegreys 3m
94
01:55 Bristol De Mai 2m½f
118
02:35 Emperor´s Choice 3m5½f
97
03:10 Quincy Des Pictons 2m3½f
83
03:45 Ghost River 2m½f
84
Mike.
Bristol De Mai is 6/1 clear second favourite for The Triumph Hurdle after seeing off Karezak, with Golden Doyen a bit disappointing in the same race.
Some signs that the Peter Hobbs yard had been drifting out of their spell of imperious form in recent days and I was surprised that Golden Doyen was as short as he was in the betting.
Kalkir fluffed his lines and was a ridiculously short favourite based on one win. He is 12/1 now with Karezak and Golden Doyen seemingly discounted at 25/1 and 33/1 respectively. That wouldn’t seem very good news for Hargam, although better ground and his style of racing could see him more competitive come the spring.
Peace and Co at 3/1 makes no appeal to me. He was very impressive on his debut but we have seen numerous times this season the dangers of wiring into a Henderson shorty for ante-post targets.
If it’s soft in March I’ll probably side with Bristol De Mai.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
T B B how did you rate Vercingetorix’s performance at Limerick today?
Limerick going allowance
-1.15s/f
(heavy)
Vercingetorix (IRE) 4/5F
77
Crystal Pearl 8/1
63
Social Riser (IRE) 9/2
60
Lady Clitico (IRE) 100/30
60
Caridadi (IRE) 25/1
67
Deadline Day (IRE) 25/1
26
Bleeding Hearts (IRE) 66/1
18
The Church Gate (IRE) 100/1
6
Mike.
Is this thread still going? Expected to see it after the Triumph Trial today.
Interested in thoughts on Bivouac’s dire performance. He settled better than most, was reasonably strong in the market and had he confirmed his previous run with Storm Force Ten he would have been challenging the winner. It looked like a totally inept ride from Fehily but there surely must have been more to it than that?
Is this thread still going? Expected to see it after the Triumph Trial today.
As did I. I’m both flattered and disappointed by the slide of this *award winning* thread in my absence.
I’m currently engaged in a battle with some pesky demons which has necessitated my withdrawal from getting too objectively involved with all things equine (which is stupid because I lost most of my money on darts and football and was actually showing a profit on horseys). As such, I’ve been unable to pay this particular sphere its’ due attention.
Interested in thoughts on Bivouac’s dire performance. He settled better than most, was reasonably strong in the market and had he confirmed his previous run with Storm Force Ten he would have been challenging the winner. It looked like a totally inept ride from Fehily but there surely must have been more to it than that?
I was surprised to see him (and Ibis Du Rheu) line up in the first place given my previous contention that he’s a long term prospect.
Given that Bivouac had been held off the pace in his previous starts, and that he was given every chance turning in, I don’t really see what Fehily did wrong. He was already getting outpaced approaching the last and that final flight blunder didn’t really make the slightest difference to his prospects. Henderson suggested afterwards that he’s a stayer and that the utter lack of pace in the early stages effectively spoiled his chances. The fact Bivouac is a nephew of Saint Are would back up this sentiment. Again, my only concern would be what he was doing in that race in the first place.
Cheers No Idea 
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.