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Unless MCM somehow improves half a stone, he has no chance at all.
The form of his last race looks like turd, quite frankly, and he’ll be even more vulnerable over the longer trip on fastish ground. Pacemakers will also benefit STS more than MCM, and I consider TB as more of a threat.
MCM supporters can only hope STS and TB run like pigs.
Add another MCM man here. Just such a nice horse to look at, very
gusty
and will love 10f on fast ground.
Any type of extra thrust would be welcome for MCM backers, I should think.
A few strategic blasts of marsh-gas into the face of STS may also aid the dastardly MCM and his pacemaker cronies.
Doubt it though.
- Total Posts 17716
Unless MCM somehow improves half a stone, he has no chance at all.
The form of his last race looks like turd, quite frankly, and he’ll be even more vulnerable over the longer trip on fastish ground. Pacemakers will also benefit STS more than MCM, and I consider TB as more of a threat.
MCM supporters can only hope STS and TB run like pigs.
You’re in a dream world. You say Mastercraftsman’s last race looked like turd. I thought he beat Delagator the self same horse Sea the Stars beat.
Taking it that most good horses improve after a race or 2 then I would have thought there would be very little between the 2. Doesn’t say much for Sea the Star’s form does it?
If Tartan Bearer did beat them both Sea the Stars and he would be worth about half what people think they are worth now. This is the first time either horse has taken on an elder we know is a Group horse running at a suitable trip and it could make or break StS.
You say MCM is not suited by fast ground so would you agree he would have beat Delegator a street length had it been soft? If he had then the form book would indicate MCM was ahead of StS would it not?
MCM goes fine on good ground and it’s fair to say that anyhorse that can win over a mile in a bog, in the fashion he did is very likely to get 1m2f.
Let’s say for one minute MCM is a better horse on soft than he is on good/firm……..then is it not feasible to think that the extra 2f would bring out a better performace from MCM…he is afterall a horse who wears out horses. He pulled back 1/2 length on Delegator when looking beat and in the end stamina in the main was what came into play.
Another factor is the improvment he has shown between the Guineas and his last race………I would suggest he improved more than Sea the Stars has. He improved 4 lengths on his guineas form and RVW was 3 lengths closer to StS in the Eclipse at Sea the Str’s best distance OR maybe you think RVW who we seen detroy a good field over 2 furlongs shorter recently isn’t better at a mile?
Everything points to there being very little between these two horses but if you think differently you have every right to……would just like to know how you can justify saying such a thing as Mastercraftsman needs to improve 7lbs to have a chance?……..I’ll tell you what that is a bout 4 lengths in some books is it not?…………..How about you give me an even 20k and 4 lengths? No? Na didn’t think so
.Something no one is taking into consideration is the pacemakers at Ascot never did as expected. The idea was obviously for one to lead for so long and then the other to take over and sustain an even gallop. As it turned out Born to be King failed to do his job and the pace wasn’t maintained. Mastercraftsman sloed for a bit then had to go on sooner than he wanted to. He was in front for almost 3 furlongs and that’s along time in anyone’s book. He certainly wasn’t ridden in the guineas to hit the front that far out so I doubt he was where they wanted him to be at that stage at Ascot.
I would imagine Born to the King who hasn’t run since will be alot straighter tomorrow and this time do the job he was supposed to do at Ascot.
AOB is a master of tactics and I can see this being text book stuff to get Sea the Stars into a fight………..you say No Chance I say BS.
A fascinating contest.
Fist, you say that Kinane should leave it as late as possible, to give MCM little time of fighting back. I agree with you, and I’d imagine he will go about 10 horses wide of him aswell, ala Henrythenavigator vs New Approach in last year’s Irish 2000.
MCM goes fine on good ground and it’s fair to say that anyhorse that can win over a mile in a bog, in the fashion he did is very likely to get 1m2f.
Did he enjoy the heavy going, or did he enjoy that the heavy going attributed to a tough slog of a race?
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This site is a slow or is it me?
I’m not sure what the answer to that one is Myles.
I suppose a bit of both. JM stated again today he can go on any ground.
Casting my mind back to pre guineas, based on the way he beat Art Conniserr and that other good sprinter Sorry forgotten it’s name) I thought he was definitely better on top of the ground but the way he won on soft this season I thought he improved tons when runing on it.
Everyone says he would have a better chance on good/soft or worse but as we know Oxx claims StS hates that type of ground.
So I decided ignore the ground and compare the two horses. I know MCM will relish a fight I’m not so sure StS will. I honestly think he’s has had it pretty easy so far. Delegator seemed to quit at Newmarket, the Derby was a farce and Rip Van Winkle never went through with his run in the Eclipse.
Crystal ball says:
1. Mastercraftsman 7/4
2. Sea the Stars 8/11
3. Tartan Bearer 9/2Dist: 2 1/4 Lengths, Head
Where Oh where are the locals gone? First the King George now the Juddmonte. Seems like nobody wants to race in England for the big ones.Why not race at the Curragh and save the travelling expences.This is beyond a joke.Take Stouty out of the King George or Aidan out of the Juddmont and there is no race.
This truely is ridiculous. Four runners and two pacemakers or at best no hopers. It isn’t competition. People are quick to talk up foreign races like the Arc and Breeders Cup events but it seems they are forgetting and neglecting those in their own back yard. The Juddmonte, the King George as andyod says take out one trainer from each race and there’s nothing left. Pathetic. Trainers and owners should be ashamed of themselves it does absolutely nothing for British racing.
Maybe;only maybe, if Ascot was run in October and the spring season ended with the Irish derby we might get a better spread of racing and runners in England ; or else just switch the big races to France. The English trainers seem more like French patrons than English ones.Seems like Luca Cumani will go anyplace to race except at home.An English trained winner in France is highlighted so what does that say about the standard in France? The whole scene is getting tragic and now Godolfin are importing trainers from the US!!
You cant really blame connections for not turning out against Sea The Stars and Mastercraftsman. If you have a group two or three horse you will wait for a more suitable opportunity. I am surpirsed some trainers didn’t have the foresight to put in a decent handicapper in the knowledge the race would probably cut up. The handicapper could have been ridden to defeat the pacemakers only and pick up good money for 4th I imagine.
Anyway, its by the by. There are only 2 horses in the race and 2 pacemakers. I just hope we dont get the farcical scenario of two pacemakers haring off at a million miles an hour leaving 10length gaps back to the big two. There seems to be an assumption that Sea The Stars will track Mastercraftsman…whats the chances its the other way round? perhaps Mick Kinane will want first run and get Mastercraftsman chasing him…if he cant catch up there will be no battle.
Crystal ball says:
1. Mastercraftsman 7/4
2. Sea the Stars 8/11
3. Tartan Bearer 9/2Dist: 2 1/4 Lengths, Head
That’ll be the same crystal ball which said that Kauto Star would pulverise Denman at Cheltenham ’08, Fist ? !
Best to bin that old piece of old useless spherical glass right now.
Anyhow, when this York prediction goes belly up ( as it it surely will
), there’s always consolation to be found in Deauville, France, on August 23rd. Some British trained two year old wonder colt, I do believe… Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Are we to believe there are no group one 3yod’s in England capable of racing beyond a mile .How sad. What exactly is the true picture for classic runners trained in England? None?
I can only imagine the Racing For Change think-tank haven’t raised this issue?
Given MCM can compete in all conditions Fist and is not dependable in rain-affected going, I’m confident he’s after the slog. Just can’t imagine Coolmore will conjure one up in what has essentially become a match.
As much as I respect the two protagonists here, the make-up of this race is a complete turn-off.
The current going, even with pacemakers, there going to have to box Sea The Stars for any chance, I cant see Mastercraftsman having the class to beat Sea The Stars, on Good To Firm, Mastercraftsmaan had a fight with Delegator, Sea The Stars easily deposed of Delegator at Newmarket.
Its going to take a O’Brien masterplan to take the honours here, I would think they’d fancy their chances more at Leopardstown rather than here.
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