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I suppose know one knows, but maybe he never had the choice. Maybe Sheik Mo wanted one of his retained jockeys to ride Lord North in the big races.
I think we will get good to soft on Wednesday and soft or maybe heavy on Thursday from what I have seen on the weather. I know one thing for sure when the going turns soft the outsiders come in. No bets for the weekend or the rest of York. Ghaiyyath has won on good to soft. Aspetar is not running so we are down to 5 now.
When analysing ground conditions and form, I always find it important to make a distinction between what horses go on and what horses are best on.
For example, all horses can stay 12 furlongs. But can they stay 12 furlongs in a Group 1 at Epsom? That’s different.
All horses can run in Soft ground. But can they run in Soft ground and win a Group 1?
It’s important to make that difference.
It’s hard to be sure, but with showers around today that could be sharp, it looks as though GS is the most likely ground tomorrow.
For Ghaiyyath to win he will likely have to do something he’s never done before. That’s win a Group 1 with the word soft in the going description.
Yes he’s won a Grp3 on GS, but his form with the word soft in the title at Group 1 level is 30.
Compare that to his Grp1 form without soft in the going title. It’s 111.
That’s an angle to take him on with.
The other angle if anyone wants to take him on, is that this race has a reputation for a hot favs graveyard.
We don’t have to go back that far to see it. 4 horses have run since Frankel’s win in 2012 that have been 8/5 or lower in the market, rated 124+. They all lost. Crystal Ocean, Poets Word, Golden Horn & Al Kazeem.
It can’t be a no bet race this. If you fancy Ghiayyath, he’s clearly the form pick and you could easily go in hard on him, but if you want to take him on, there’s 2 fairly decent angles to do it with.
I agree Ghaiyyath won’t want it too soft but I think GS shouldn’t inconvenience him too much and hopefully it will be good or good (good to soft in places) rather than softer.
Kameko has never even raced on worse than good. Magical and Lord North would be the ones who would appreciate the cut.
Could be a very close race especially if it does come up soft.
Ghaiyyath for me with Kameko e/w (antepost so got 3 places).
Doesn’t mean Kameko won’t go on it though KrisKin. Kittens Joy’s best rated race was on Yeilding and Roaring Lion won the QEII on soft. It’s whether Kameko can win a 10F race on easy ground. For me, that’s more the questionamark
MarkTT BBC weather and the Met Office. Forecast rain this morning for York, will have to see if that turns the ground GS, and tomorrow afternoon heavy rain.
Frenchy I have already backed Ghaiyyath and Kameko ante post, I have backed Fujaira Prince ante post for the Ebor but now the rain is going to come I won’t be betting anything else unless I spot one who acts on the ground. I am worried about how soft the ground will go for Ghaiyyath.
A very interesting race in store. Rose of Kildare in there to keep Ghaiyyath honest? From an owner who dislikes another big owner’s tactics? Interesting enough!
Ghaiyyath likes a lead and to be able to dominate his opposition. Will Coolmore allow that? Magical is fine raced very prominently.
Will this set up for Kameko or Lord North? It’s very possible, but i find it hard to nail my colours to one, so i’ll sit it out.
Interested to how Ghaiyyath gets on, this will hopefully see him tested properly, and not given a free one in front. Ground a minor concern, but worth considering those runs were last year, and arguably he’s looked a more straighforward horse this year.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The significant rain this week at the meeting is Wednesday late afternoon, evening, and overnight. Thursday’s ground will be the softest according to the forecast.
Kameko’s drifting a bit today, I’m sure that’s ground related. Anyone confirm what the weather is doing so far today in York?
Says on anything i can see that it’s dry currently. Ground likely be fine for him i’d say as doesn’t look like it’ll come soon enough. Though it’s the weather who knows
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!On the BBC observation 2pm was dry but cloudy. Forecast to be dry for the rest of the afternoon and night. Going good, good to soft in places at 2.20pm. Showing good to soft from 1 mile 2 furlong start to the 7 furlong start then good the final 7 furlongs.
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