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33/1 looks good for Planteur, to me. He looks laid out. It would only need Himself to sustain a wee injury or be off-colour (or peely-wally, as they say in these pairts), or be stretched by the pace over the new distance, to be in with a good shout.
His win in the Prix Gany would give him a chance but laid out against Frankel? I’m sure Marco could think of better ways of passing his time. I would imagine the plan with hih is to pick up the stragglers and hopefully run into a place as he does struggle a bit in top class race
I hope you got on before Nathaniel was declared a probably non runner. My own idea of betting in the place market has been firmly hit on the head
Can’t say I blame John Gosden, horse was probably entered with the hope Frankel wouldn’t turn up.
Aiden O’Brien on the other hand seems keen to run SNA. He’s probably thinking or at least hoping he can run Frankel close at this trip. If he could that might encourage him to run Camelot against him later on but that’s probably too much to wish for.
The nearer it gets the more it’s beginning to look like another walk in the park for Frankel and another 2nd place for a Ballydoyle inmate
I find it fascinating that trainers boycott tracks that don’t have good prise money and then turn around and boycott those that do.Why no effort to pick up the place money in the International? Ballydoyle seldom leave money on the table.
You can only be talking about Nathaniel. There are a few others taking their chance..more than I would have expected to be honest
If Nathaniel ran against Frankel there’s a good chance he’d burst a gut trying to beat him on the expected ground and end up finishing 3rd.
If he was lucky enough to finish 2nd he’d go home with 150K if not but manged 3rd he’d get about 80k
Knowing Frankel is all but unbeatable he had the option of going for the Irish Champion with a first prize of around 350k, plus getting his ground and facing easier opposition.
What would you do?
Aiden knowing that Nathaniel was very likely to go to Ireland ceases the opportunity to pick up some place money with the somewhat disappointing SNA. There must be a doubt that he could beat Nathaniel in the Irish Champion.
Aiden has so many of these top class horses he’s happy to grab place money. Those with only one top class performer can’t afford that luxury and have to be much more picky where they run.
Nathaniel winning the Eclipse and just getting pipped in the King George is a dam sight better than finishing 6 lengths behind Frankel. Yes ? No?
The likes of Snow Fairy could have gone to York and got her ass kicked but they saw a chance to pick up 120k in France and grabbed it and got another Group 1 win to her name.
To be frank you are criticizing people for doing the right thing by their horses and owners Andy because you’re failing to think it out properly before posting and you love a good moan!!
Nope Hurdy – I agree with Andyod. Its outrageous that trainers are boycotting (bullying?) smaller tracks when they can’t be bothered to win decent 5th placed prize money (at least!) in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood.
His win in the Prix Gany would give him a chance but laid out against Frankel? I’m sure Marco could think of better ways of passing his time. I would imagine the plan with hih is to pick up the stragglers and hopefully run into a place as he does struggle a bit in top class race
To read Planteur’s form you just have to completely dismiss a bunch of his runs, he either fires or he doesn’t. Throw out his 2 Ascot failures and a few others. At his best he’s close to Sarafina (Arc and BC Turf favorite last yr), Cirrus Des Aigles, Behkabad, and Rewilding. Dubai World Cup was a farcical race on strange surface, but his was the best run of the race outside the course-specialist winner so he’s performed outside of France before.
He’s a live place chance. He might hate York like he does Ascot but price is ridiculous.Aidan has been talking about how he thinks SNA might be better at 10f recently. My thoughts:
He doesn’t reel off Snow Fairy/Sarafina-sectionals in very slow-run races; this cost him in Dubai and last year’s King George. A finish that requires a ~23 second final 2 furlongs is probably best for him so the pace of 10f will help in that way.
Does he stay 12f strongly? Most of his 12f races have been run at moderate-to-slow tempos or against G2 horses. He failed in the only top-class fast-pace race he’s contested, last year’s Arc. That suggests he didn’t stay, but then again perhaps it was being ridden on the pace on that day! He travelled comfortably enough so I’m siding with Aidan here, the 12f can stretch him and 10f with pace on is his optimum. I think SNA will handle the trip and probably run 2nd.
The way Frankel wins over a mile he can surely run 9f well enough to beat anything over that distance. But an extra furlong? In a scorching pace?
Cityscape’s best trip is probably 9f, he won a fast-run Dubai Duty Free running away, breaking the Dubai track record. Punted to get just an extra furlong in the Eclipse, he travelled SUPREMELY and like the winner, but completely fell apart in the final furlong. That stamina wall can appear quite suddenly. This is the only way Frankel can get beat but the prices seem spot on enough.Hurdygurdy man we were talking about placemoney.A group one horse that can pick up over fifty grand or more in place money without fuss might be willing to take his chance.Does anyone believe that SNA can beat Frankel?He is there to give Joseph more experience before the ST.Leger. If you have "only one" group one horse which is what most owners of group one horses have then you are more likely to race him wherever there is good money to be picked up.Why do you think Frankel’s owner has three in the race? Twice Over is running for the place money.The owner does not expect to beat Frankel does he?Same applies to Farhh.I believe Sri Putra is Group One I don’t know about Plamtuer, but they are certainly running for the place money.The smaller the yard the more likely to run for the money.As I have said Coolmore don’t believe in leaving money on the table.
That wackybacky must be good
I think what you and Andy are forgetting is it costs money to enter horses in races. There’s thousands of owners who would be thankful for the 5th place money by entering a no hoper. However when you enter you have no idea whatsoever who is contemplating running and it’s a case o then coming up with yet more money to find out.
To throw about that type of money on a wing and a prayer that nothing better than you takes the likes of those that were expected to run Frankel, Nathaniel, SNA etc.
You guys are after timing as you have the luxury of having the final field in front of you and it’s easy to now say so and so could have picked up 4th or 5th place.
The fact is that any owner with say a 100 rated horse who suggested to his trainer they should run to try and steal some place money would not get a positive response and could expect to be asked things like "Are you mad" or hear comments "It’s your money but I would rather spend mine on a weekend in Wester Hailes"
Try throwing up some names of hoses who you think should have run here instead of where they are heading next….I think you will struggle
Try throwing up some names of hoses who you think should have run here
Garden Hose, Fireman’s Hose, Pantie Hose………
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Getting back to the actual race.
1. Frankel
2. Twice OverI reckon this ground will bring out the best in Twice Over. Sir Henry was seriously thinking of withdrawing him at Sandown at one time because he thought the ground would be too soft. Under the circumstances his form in that race reads well and SNA could easily burst if they ride him to try and beat Frankel like Excelebration did.
Try throwing up some names of hoses who you think should have run here
Garden Hose, Fireman’s Hose, Pantie Hose………
What and miss the Watershipdown Selling Handicap at Ponte? No chance
That wackybacky must be good
Only the finest!
Seriously though, you can’t blame connections of Nathaniel and Cirrus Des Aigles for aiming their horses at Leopardstown, Ballydoyle have the luxury of many darts to aim at every board.
St Nicholas Abbey has nothing to lose running against Frankel. He’s already been beaten many times so another defeat won’t make much difference to his stud value. If he puts it up to Frankel or turns him over his reputation will be enhanced.
The only way Frankel will be beaten barring injury imo is if Queally get’s drawn in to committing for home to soon, finds the tank empty with a furlong to go and St Nicholas Abbey catches him on the run to the line. If Frankel stays he’ll win doing handstands, but I think it’s possible he’ll be beaten. I’ve maintained all season that if he is to be beaten it will be by St Nicholas Abbey so I’ve put my money where my mouth is (each way of course
)I’ll more than likely back him without Frankel as well.
My 100% book:
Frankel 2/9, St Nicholas Abbey 13/1,Farhh 18/1
, Twice Over 33/1,
Planteur 40/1
, Sri Putra 500/1, Bullet Train 2000/1, Windsor Palace and Robin Hood no offer (less than 2000/1).
Farhh is available @ 39/1 on betfair and Planteur 129/1.
Have also backed the two in the betting without market. 4/1 (b365) Farhh and 12/1 (L) Planteur.
With a saver on Frankel to win by up to and including 4.5 lengths @ 9/4 (PP).
Value Is EverythingSince Frankel is by the super sire Galileo I would back him to stay a mile and 2 even if his dam was a donkey.I kid you not.
Interesting discussion about fractions earlier. Continuing the theme, Frankel has won his races by putting in strong fractions at about 6f, to win over 10f he will have to wait until 8f before accelerating, more or less about the time SNA should also be (hopefully not too far out the back this time). Don’t think Frankel will be beaten but that extra 2f before he can/should be accelerating may take the edge of his finish so we may see a victory of 1-2l rather than 6+.
Frankel’s form is so far clear of anything else in the race. But he’s going up in trip and with two pacemakers for a stable companion who’s coming down in distance (ie St Nich needs a test at the distance). Therefore it’s sure to be a stamina test at 10 furlongs 88 yards. Frankel shows top class sprinting fractions when racing at a mile. If he’d gone for the Nunthorpe I’d rate him long odds-on too! Any horse with that much speed is not entirely certain of getting 10 furlongs. People compare breeding, full brother Noble Mission, Galileo etc is all very well, but it is temperament that can sometimes effect stamina limitations. Frankel has been free at a mile before now (admittedly this tendency is getting less and less). But settling well enough to be impressive at a mile is one thing. Settling well enough to be impressive over another 2 and a bit furlongs – is quite another.
82% (2/9) is still a massive chance of winning. For the record, I think Frankel will probably stay the trip well enough to win. However, things are not just black or white. I have doubts about him being as good at 1m2f88yrds. One has to allow for the possibility of not staying and coming to the end of his tether to such an extent as to lose the race (and other reasons). So in my opinion he has an 18% chance of not winning.St Nicholas Abbey is a good Group 1 winner at 12 furlongs and stamina is his forte. He’ll need a good test back in trip and there’s a chance even that won’t be good enough. Then there’s jockeyship to consider. Will Joseph get it right this time? Unless he tracks the pace it’s possible everyone will ignore the two Ballydoyle pacemakers. And if it is fast enough, will Joseph go for home too soon? Master O’Brien’s judgement of pace is not consistent.
Farhh
was below form in the Sussex, didn’t beat the pacemakers with as much ease as his form suggests. It may well be Farhh now needs further than 1m in top company. Take out that run and the form looks progressive. May have been dismissed by punters purely because of being beaten easily by Frankel last time. This is a different test. Does have a round action and although did well on similar ground to this at Royal Ascot, it’s possible does not want too much racing on a firm surface. Stable in cracking form.
Twice Over finished behind Farhh in the Eclipse. His best start by some way this term. It’s possible needs a couple of runs to find his form now he’s getting older. However, he was only taying on past beaten horses. Still a question mark whether he’s as good this year. There’s speculation he might be brought in to ensure an injection of pace to help if Frankel pulls too hard early. Although I believe the sponsers wanted a proper race, unlike the Sussex.
Planteur
‘s form is not as good as St Nicholas Abbey. However, wasn’t at his best when only 7th to So You Think, too free and a strongly run 1m2f should suit. Marco Botti is in fine form at the moment.
Sri Putra won in first time hood and blinkers last time. Whether those are going to work again is questionable. Form doesn’t look good anyway.
Bullet Train is Frankel’s pacemaker and isn’t capable of top class form. Even less so for the other two pacemakers.
Value Is Everything
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