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April 14, 2012 at 08:24 #400464
Ahhhh it was you who mentioned Abtaal, and not Ginge. I thought he ran quite well in France. So my question is, how do you think his pedigree effect his chances ? I’m not so sure about the French milers over the last few years. My problem is that i find it hard to get a horse out of my head, and if i don’t back it, it could win. I can’t make heads nor tails with this one. I’m thinking of just sticking to BTS.
I like him a lot Superman and the more you watch that trial the more you see how little was asked of him. I would be amazed if he didnt reverse the form with FF who was given more serious handling. Also his trainer has said that he is likely to go to Newmarket. His breeding suggest he is a miler through and through and that he may well be better on faster ground and you can still get 20-1 at Boylesports. Tuck in I say!
Have to say I am a bit down about racing today after the news about Frankel and it is even more depressing to read some of the shyte people write on the main thread. Makes you wonder if it’s worth the effort really.
I will have one bet today other than the National. Cecil had his first winner yesterday and I know they think a lot of
Royal Peculiar
in the 2.30 at Lingfield. He is running off 87 and should be a lot better than that. Obviously much will depend on his fitness but i’ll have a little bit at 3’s.
This is a flat thread and I am a flat man (actually I’m very bubbly but you know what I mean) but there is only one National and I did promise a 100-1 winner so why not have a fiver each way on
Deep Purple
at 100-1. If he doesn’t go breaking a blood vessel he is a very classy horse with a high win record. Probably handicapped out of it anyway but still worth a bit of fun.
Other than that and fwiw I have backed Treacle, Sunnyhill Boy, Synchronised and West End Rocker.
Fingers crossed for Frankel!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
April 18, 2012 at 21:21 #401343A great day for me. I didn’t win a penny but hearing the news about Frankel has put the spring back in my step and silenced a lot of plonkers on the main thread. Anyone that has read any of my posts over the last couple of years will know how obsessed I am with this horse. My 2 year old twins have been running around this week saying to me "ahhh!!! Pooor Frankel. He hurt his leg!!!! Daddida upset!!!!!!!" Then they go up to my study where my poster of his Guineas win hangs and shout "COME ON FRANKEL!!! GOOOOOO!!!!" Disturbing hey?! Let’s hope that all roads lead to the Lockinge again.
At Newmarket the cards looked impossible and sure enough there were plenty of surprises. I am pretty sure we didn’t see a classic winner today but I was delighted with
Stipulate
‘s win in the Fielden. It is always a good sign when one of the lesser lights in a stable wins a race like this and I will now be very interested to see how
Wrotham Heath
and
Noble Mission
go at Newbury later this week. Stimulate will win more races but looks like he is going to be most effective with cut.
I have said before that I think the Cecil horses are best watched first time out and he is proving me nicely wrong this year as his horses are running really well – rather better than Mr Stoute I might say.
Tomorrow looks equally tricky to be honest and, as I am working anyway, I will probably leave well alone and watch it when I get home.
Most Improved
is the big talking horse at the moment and he may well be something special but do you really want to back him on softish ground at evens? My old mate
Twice Over
goes in the Sefton and he will be the one I will be most hoping to win but I remember when he was beaten in this race a couple of years ago and, again, short odds like 6-5 wouldn’t interest me. 9f is a bit short for him these days I reckon but at least the little bit of juice in the ground will make it a bit more of a test and I am hopeful he will win.
If I back anything it will be
Main Sequence
in the last. I was impressed with his two wins last year and his main rival is Martin Chuzzlewit whose trainer is yet to find any form. If he is bigger than 5-2 I will get involved.
Should be good anyway although the Newbury cards look better later in the week!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
April 18, 2012 at 21:31 #401345Main Sequence looks potentially well-treated as he beat Open Water comfortably, whose maiden win produced the winner of both divisions of the maiden at Windsor on Monday.
April 19, 2012 at 19:56 #401450I hadn’t noticed Main Sequence down to run until you flagged him up. When researching Rosslyn Castle on Monday I stumbled across him and thought he was worth keeping an eye on. He touched 5/2 and did it nicely in the end. Many thanks
April 19, 2012 at 20:48 #401457I hadn’t noticed Main Sequence down to run until you flagged him up. When researching Rosslyn Castle on Monday I stumbled across him and thought he was worth keeping an eye on. He touched 5/2 and did it nicely in the end. Many thanks
No problem EF! Glad you got on. He won it nicely didn’t he. Might not be quite good enough to win the Derby but I am sure he will win more races and could well be Group class.
As I thought Twice Over found one too good today but still ran very well first time up. He may not be Group 1 material these days but I am sure Henry will find him something at a slightly lower level. Elsewhere the Cecil team had another winner with
Jet Away
grinding it out in the soft at Ripon. I think this horse is better than he has shown so far and can see him winning at least a listed race this year on better ground. He does have Group 1 entries.
Tomorrow should be fascinating as Henry runs what are possibly his two major Epsom hopes.
Popular
runs in division 2 of the fillies maiden and, as long as she handles the condidtions, I expect her to win en route to an Oaks trial.
Wrotham Heath
will LOVE the ground and is impossible to oppose now the Godolphin horse has been withdrawn. You won’t get rich backing either of them but well worth watching anyway.
You might get slightly better odds on
Amaraja
, a daughter of Galileo, who runs in Division 1 of the fillies maiden. She has reportedly been beating Popular on the gallops so should go close as well.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
April 20, 2012 at 08:14 #401487With plenty of non-runners at Newbury I suspect the going will be soft at best. In view of this I am tempted by Caphene in the 4.25. She is a daughter of Claxon, who could not have too much rain. I’ve had a 20+ year love of the family so the 40/1 is too tempting to let run wild. Even so I presume she will need the run as most of her stable’s runners improve for their first outing.
April 21, 2012 at 08:10 #401623Watching the replays from Newbury last night had me more in mind of steeplechasers slogging through the mud at Towcester in January than watching Classicly bred thoroughbreds.
I thought Wrotham ran a decent enough race considering he was far too free early on but I couldn’t see him reversing form with the impressive winner. The other Cecil runners didn’t handle the ground so I would ignore those runs.
You would have to be pretty brave to back anything from Newbury today given the conditions. But I am Joni The Fearless so will have a couple of little ones.
I was pleased to see
Fury
return to something like his old self last time out and he remains well handicapped on his early three year old form and now has ground that he likes. 6-1 is surely a decent each way bet.
Noble Mission
has shown that he handles the conditions and is being talked up by connections so should take all the beating in the first. I will back him to win at 7-4.
Cecil runs 2 in the other maiden. Touch Gold was recently nominated by the trainer as his horse to follow this year. He is a huge colt who may need the run but will handle the ground and so should go close at 11-2 but don’t ignore the second string. We all know that he often wins with his second strings and Ian Mongan is 2-2 so far this year on his horses.
King Of Dudes
is by Dansili who loved the soft ground and he is priced at 20-1! A bit of each way from me there.
The trials have been decimated by the weather and are only wathcing briefs now for me.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
April 21, 2012 at 13:45 #401659Noble Mission
has shown that he handles the conditions and is being talked up by connections so should take all the beating in the first. I will back him to win at 7-4.
I know it is easy to say after the event but how did he go off at 3-1?! Not that I am complaining of course.
Won it well and will be interesting to see where he goes next. I doubt we will see him over a mile again as the further he went the better he looked.
Bit of temperament though. Wonder where he gets that from?!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
April 21, 2012 at 20:25 #401697Jonibake,
A good thread….. written with a good mix of wit and wisdom. Just what I like to see!
Did you get a copy of the H Cecil "Straight from the stables" article in the Weekender a couple of weeks ago? Some good insight there on the stables hopes for the year.
April 21, 2012 at 23:28 #401716Thanks for those words OD! Yes I did read that. I read most things Cecil! Should be a big year. Two words –
World Domination
.
A reasonable day today with a winner, a second and a flop. Apart from Noble Mission I thought the horse to take from the day was Uriah Heep of Sir Michael’s. Considering how poorly his horses have been running I thought he looked very promising.
Tomorrow is the last day before I go on me hols for a week and so I will be watching
Excelebration
very carefully. I am a huge fan of this horse and will be fascinated to see if he improves this year for the switch to Ballydoyle. He only has 4 lengths to make up on
you know who
and will have the benefit of this run if he goes to the Lockinge.
See you all in a week!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
April 22, 2012 at 12:23 #401769I too was pretty impressed by Noble Mission. They didn’t go vey fast in the early stages and like a few others he raced a bit too keenly in the first few furlongs, but he way he went about his business in the closing stages was most encouraging.
Pedicatably, the time was a fair bit slower than the Spring Cup, although it was well over a second quicker than the other division of this maiden. I was a little bit concerned to see a hood fitted but reportedly will be dispensed with the next time he runs.
It will be interesting to see at what level he runs next time because I think Henry likes him a lot. I know he had been working with Midsummer Sun who won last week. I always think its a clear sign that when Henry works a 3 year-old with an older horse at this time of the year, then the younger horse must be very smart.
Frankel he isn’t, thats for sure as he’s more of a staying type. I wouldn’t be surprised if he made up into a Derby contender, I would be surprised however if he isn’t Group class.
April 22, 2012 at 16:00 #401783Agreed Uriah Heep was an eye-catcher from a yard that hasn’t hit form. Moore wasn’t overly hard on him either so expect him to come on a fair bit for the run.
From the Cecil yard I thought Emilio Largo ran a fair race coming 5th in the Spring Cup. I managed to get some 25/1 on bf around lunchtime which suggested he’d come on for the run / not get the trip fto in the soft ground. I just felt 25s were too big given his overall profile. In the end he travelled well but couldn’t sustain his effort to the line. One to note over 7-8f nto on better ground.
Finally the 8.15 Wolves was a hot maiden for the track and Roger Varian had a newcomer that was well backed throughout the day. I need to watch the vid again but Sound Hearts looked to stay on well and improve a lot for the experience. Again from a yard that knows the time of day so the money was significant given it was a fair engagement fto.
April 22, 2012 at 21:58 #401839Agree with that OD – Emilio Largo ran very well. I’ll bet we see him next at Royal Ascot.
The trials are over and it’s always a good time to take stock. A combination of bad ground and injuries meant that they were pretty poor fare this year and I very much doubt we have seen a classic winner yet although Trumpet Major did nothing wrong and could run into a place. Looking at the betting for both Guineas they are dominated by horses that haven’t run yet this season. My questions would be how fit is AOB going to have his Guineas horses? A lot of his have looked in need of a run first time out and do you really want to be backing Maybe and Camelot at 7-4 and Evens?
Mahmood Al Zarooni is not firing in the way I hoped he would so I am not exactly brimming with confidence over my AP bet on
Discourse
. Maybe has by far the best form and must be tough to beat if fit enough but I won’t be getting involved anymore.
I am happier about Abtaal in the 2,000. I have a feeling that French form is the best we have seen so far this year and the indications are that he will be heading to Newmarket. He is now as short as 10-1 and I expect to see him go to single figures when his participation is confirmed. I’m sorry but I can’t believe the top 4 in the market. Ok Camelot may just be head and shoulders above everything but he is surely going to end up running over further and there are too many doubts for me at the price (though if you got 6-1 Gord, good luck to you!. The next three though? Most Improved is injured and is only there on the basis of his homework anyway. Top Offer is a maiden winner and has loads to prove and Born To Sea is a listed winner who is short only because his brother was an all time great. One of them may win but they make no appeal to me whatsoever. I will stick with my little froggy horse but might back his ami closer to the race as I think they might have it between them. I may also have a little bit on Trumpet Major especially if the ground still has cut.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 1, 2012 at 11:31 #402665So just got back from me hols last night. If you ever want a quiet place to go to where you can’t even access your email or internet go to Cape Verdi. It was great but I SOOO missed keeping up to date with me horses! My blackberry was worthless out there and even more so after my son pushed me in the pool on the last day with my phone in my shorts! He swam home.
Having said all that it seems I missed……..nothing. Can’t believe how much rain you’ve had! Looks like any races from the last week can be discounted on form.
Looking forward to the classics at the weekend you are clearly going to want to be on something that likes cut. My two AP selections are
Abtaal
and
Discourse
. I am quietly confident about the froggy. He will like the ground, has good solid form and will have come on for his trial. I think he will go close. Of course the race revolves around Camelot and he could just be different class. All this talk about a match up between Black Caviar and The Wonderhorse but if Camelot wins easily on Saturday I think people might want to see a proper race over 10f between the last two Guineas winners. I know which race I would rather see anyway.
Discourse needs to be able to show she handles cut and with her American pedigree and turn of foot I am not so sure she will. I have this morning backed the recently supplimented
Moonstone Magic
at 8-1. The softer the better for this one and you couldnt help but be impressed with her win at Newbury last week. My only worry would be the trip but she showed no signs of stopping at the end of 7 furlongs so hopefully the extra furlong won’t be a problem.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 1, 2012 at 11:53 #402669I’m liking Power for the 2000 Joni, think he’d have won the Dewhurst with a clear run and would be alot shorter than 14/1 if he had. Might have an each way nibble at Caspar, love the attitude of this horse, will be race fit, just a question of whether he’ll get the 8.
Off to Cape Verdi in June (after Ascot unlike last year, where I was stuck in bloody Turkey for the week!) Not much chance of catching any racing then!? The Euros will be on while we’re there, please tell me they have tele’s?!
May 1, 2012 at 12:44 #402680Both tough sorts who could certainly run well at good prices. Not sure if CN quite has the class to win a Classic but could run into a place. I agree with you about Power and I have been thinking about having him in my TTTF as he will be kept to a mile whilst Camelot steps up. I just wonder how fit he will be first time up.
You’ll love Cape Verdi (No Stress is the motto on the island) but get away from the resort (if that’s what you are doing) and go to the beach at Santa Maria. It is much more authentic there and there are some lovely restaurants. I went big game fishing there as well and caught a 15 kilo Wahoo that gave me more of a thrill in 8 minutes than my wife has given me in 8 years.
You will definitely be able to see the footie as all the bars have it but you may have to rely on Internet cafes for your racing. Enjoy anyway!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 2, 2012 at 12:05 #402794Won’t be able to watch the big race live Saturday so small stakes for me, got my fingers burned with St Nic a couple of years back so am wary of backing Camelot at such short odds, I can promise you one thing Joni it won’t be as good as last years race!
Thanks for the holiday tips, might give the fishing a try, we’ve gone all inclusive though so won’t be venturing out too much, it’s the day of the Euro semis when we arrive so good to know we’ll be able to watch those, although the chances of England still being involved have got to be remote. Will have to give the cafes a try as we’ll be away for the Eclipse so won’t want to miss that!
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