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“but anyone who backed Inspiral must find it trying to hear reasons why she might not have won after the race, as opposed to before it”.
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OK Chezza,
No more post race analysis in future, just in case someone who’s backed the horse finds it “trying”.Value Is EverythingYou could always offer such thoughts BEFORE the race….
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"One defeat does not a career define.
Inspiral may not lose again, and go on to prove herself one of the best miling fillies of all time.
But, surely, any vaguely competent trainer would have given her time to recover and gone to Goodwood next.
“You could always offer such thoughts BEFORE the race”…
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I didn’t post any thoughts before the race.
So it’s wrong to give post race analysis unless that TRFer gave the same analysis before the race.
Value Is EverythingBesides…
Post race analysis is post race analysis because it is post race.
It is not the same as pre-race analysis because you have another race to judge the horses on
Probabilities of a horse being affected by different aspects of form have changed.Value Is EverythingPre-race theories as to why a horse might not win today are surely the same as post-race theories why a horse didn’t win today.
Anything else is just the crude backfitting of data to suit the result and leaves the author open to accusations of aftertiming, unless it is simply comment solely on what actually transpired during the race.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The opposite.
Pre-race theories are not the same because the probabilities of each aspect of form affecting each horse has changed.Before the race it was known that Inspiral won convincingly on reappearance and with this coming less than a month later there was (like any horse in those circumstances) a chance she’d bounce. But that “chance” was still a relatively small one. Large majority of horses in those circumstances still run somewhere near their form. However, post race – with no other form excuse that I can see – the probability that Inspiral has “bounced” goes to a large probability.
Also:
Pre-race – with Inspiral having five victories, many of which she’d won easily – seemed very little or no chance of Inspiral’s enigmatic dam (who went the wrong way after placing in the Guineas) passing on some temperamental issues. However, post race – if it was not anything (or only partly) to do with bouncing then it could be (although only a fairly small possibility at this stage) she was outbattled – temperament.
Point of post race analysis is to examine what a punter may have got wrong about the horses beforehand and to change his / her opinion where necessary. Any punter unable to do this – with a deep confirmation bias – is in danger of “backfitting”.
The idea that we should not say anything about the horse post race that we did not express pre-race is crazy.
Value Is Everything“‘Bounced’ or ‘Over the top’, great excuses when you find one too good”.
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Why do you think Inspiral ran below her best, Tim?
Or do you think she did run to her best?
Value Is Everything“any vaguely competent trainer”
Steady, Gladders!
John Gosden is allowed to publicly criticise his jockey, but you can’t publicly criticise the trainer, who is one of the all-time great 18th/19th century-style handlers, went to a jolly good school and is the man racing’s most absurdly deferential (stiff competition in this sphere) consider could have been prime minister material (mind you, the contemporary bar is not high).
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Ginger of course anyone is welcome to post analysis after the race.
Saying a beaten 1/9 shot ran below her best is a bit kindergarten level though…
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It’s not about saying a horse ran below form, Nathan. Post race analysis (whether long odds-on or odds against) is all about finding reason/s why it ran below form for the benefit of future races.
Value Is EverythingDettori has rides for John and Thady Gosden in the first three races at Newbury tomorrow, all for different owners.
Is this the shortest sabbatical on record?
In reply to Ginger : I think the run was well below the form she’d shown at Ascot. As to why, it coundn’t have been the ground or distance so would put it down to the 21 days between races that made the difference. Timeform noted that ‘she didn’t entirely impress beforehand’
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