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This was your original post:
If you think another horse will win the race?
I have seen many times on different forums that people believe X will win but wont back him because he/she is too short in the betting, then go onto back another in the idea its a bigger price so its the value. Now maybe i am getting to old for this game, but how is it value if you believe something else will win?Does my post below not answer your original questions, nwalton?
In a two horse race, if believing horse A has three times the chance of B, then you’d believe horse A has a fair 1/3 chance and horse B a fair 3/1. However, if horse A is available only @ 2/9 and horse B is available @ 4/1… Horse A is shorter than your idea of its true chance and Horse B is available at bigger/better than your opinion of its price. Therefore, horse B is the value / a worthwhile bet despite believing it to have a three times worse chance than the favourite.
Sorry I tried to help.
Value Is Everythingi get annoyed when people know what someone means but just acts the goat.
I am not the only person on here who was not sure what you meant, nwalton.
Value Is Everythingthe initial post is if you think horse A WILL win but dont like the price why do you look for another even though you think Horse A will win, how the hell is that value, if you think you are backing a loser?
No i think your concept goes against the grain of my thinking( i go with trying to find the winner with a price i am happy with) maybe you are comfortable betting like that but i am not.
thanks for trying
how the hell is that value, if you think you are backing a loser?
One last go at explaining how/answering your question:
My post which I’ll repeat again…In a two horse race, if believing horse A has three times the chance of B, then you’d believe horse A has a fair 1/3 chance and horse B a fair 3/1. However, if horse A is available only @ 2/9 and horse B is available @ 4/1… Horse A is shorter than your idea of its true chance and Horse B is available at bigger/better than your opinion of its price. Therefore, horse B is the value / a worthwhile bet despite believing it to have a three times worse chance than the favourite.
…tells you how it is value; nwalton.
Even if Horse A is thought by the punter to have a three times better chance than horse B…
If backing horses the punter believes to have fair 1/3 chances at odds of 2/9, then – in the long run – a punter will make a massive loss.
Where as if a punter backs horses he believes have fair 3/1 chances at odds of 4/1, then – in the long run – if he/she is good at evaluating form in to chance – he makes a good profit…So I might return your question: “how the hell” is that not value?
May be not how you bet but it is the way I bet. Each to his own.
That’s it from me, but I’ll leave you with this thought:…Some people have wisely said on here that even if not searching for value a punter intrinsically needs to find value to make a profit. So in the long run, who is most likely to find value? The punter who does not look for it? Or the punter who does?
Value Is EverythingThank Christ that’s it from you,and as the two ronnies would say it’s goodnight from him and its goodnight from me
One last thought from me,how can you not see I go for winners not value,value(money) comes from winners.
Goodnight xx
Ginger Tipster – I agree with everything you’ve said with respect to value. All the maths hangs together and the points you’re making are well constructed.
However, my suspicion is though, some punters don’t think like you’re suggesting they should or as you do. What I mean by that is: I reckon some people see a horse priced at 3-1 (25% chance of winning) but struggle to quantify their opinion about a horse’s chance of winning. They simply think “of all the horses in the race I think horse x has the biggest chance of winning” i.e. a relative measure devoid of explicit mathematical calculation but based on a quick tacitly based mental judgement from what they’ve seen on the track. Hence it is a more art based approach than the scientific based approach you’re espousing.
If you’re a bookmaker then clearly a scientific approach is a must since you’ll have to price up all races. But the difference is, being a bookmaker is typically a professsion whereas betting is often a form of entertainment for the punter.
Personally, when I bet I’m trying to adopt more a more scientific approach than I used to mainly to pressure-test my thinking before parting with my hard earned cash.
NWalton, you are looking for the winner when you bet rather than the 33% chance that’s priced bigger, but at the same time, you are also keen to avoid a horse thats a 5/1 that should be a 10/1 shot. Instead of looking for the other value in the race, you leave the race a lone. It’s a different approach that’s all, and i’d say it’s a much better approach than the average punter.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Yes Jack firstly look for the winner when I believe have found that winner I DO have a price in my mind which would be happy to take(then do a tissue to around 100% ie now Betfair is around think you have to use that %)
On bigger price selections I am happy at times to take below that price(ie 8/1 for a 10/1 chance), while if a selection has a price (in my mind ) of 6/4 I would still probably back it at 5/4, no shorter, as i believe it will win. I know many don’t like that saying it will win but in this game, I think you have to be a bit bullish. As i have said I get it wrong many times and I can see where others come from about I am not getting value at times, but I think if it wins its value.BTW let me clear this up, my original point was how can it be VALUE, after going through the race you think something will win but jump ship and back something else due to price. Maybe its because the way I work, don’t see the value in backing horse I perceive to be a loser. Maybe after all these years, I am doing it all wrong, but as someone pointed out is there a right way? Sorry for being long-winded and as i have said i am useless with english/gramma to busy reading The Sporting Life in the back of the class all those years ago.
Good luck
.BTW let me clear this up, my original point was how can it be VALUE, after going through the race you think something will win but jump ship and back something else due to price. Maybe its because the way I work, don’t see the value in backing horse I perceive to be a loser.
I know this has been said already, and probably at risk of going round in circles, but just because you perceive horse A to be the winner, it doesn’t mean the others don’t have some sort of chance to be the winner. That’s why others might back the one they perceive to be better value than they believe they should be. Understand it basically means you are going against the horse you think has the best chance of winning, but it’s all about how much chance of winning you think that horse has.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Jack, i understand people work differently and can see where they are coming from, but for me finding the winner is the starting point or maybe i should word it who you think will win. Have the price you’d be happy to take,sit back and watch it tail off. lol
I did a year thread on here a couple of years back and as you see i like backing EW, as do like to find a fav that cant win(sorry about that term) and try and find an angle in
So NW. The scenario goes like this. You go through the card and see Horse No.3 that you think might win, checking its price you suprisingly see 20/1. You continue down the card and see No. 8 and think that horse will win instead of No. 3 but see a price of 2/1 of which you are pretty unimpressed believing it should be at least 5/2. Do you :-
a) Back No. 3 to win taking a chance on the higher odds but reduce the stake.
b) Back No. 3 EW knowing a place will pay 6/4 at one-fifth odds but also has a chance of winning.
c) Back No. 7 to win knowing the horse will pay 2/1 but will pay you less than you had hoped before you saw the odds.
d) Back both horses – the 2/1 shot to win and 20/1 EW but halve the stake on both horses.
e) Leave the race alone.not trying to be funny Homer,would make up my mind after i have completed the whole card, so would not come across that scenario.
Now if i couldn’t split them, after going through the race, there is no two ways about it would back the 20s EW.i bumped the old thread up of a couple of years back to try and show how i work, on daily lays/plays.
Replying to KevMc… your first post on page 3 I absolutely agree with. I’m having between 200 to 300 wagers per year and rely on percentages taking care in the long term. Betting EW at 5/1 minimum you need 17% winners to make 2% on 100 WIN bets assuming each winner is 5/1 but of course the average winning price will be higher than 5s so if I can get an ave of 7/1 I’d require 15% winners to make 20% on 100 bets. On the place side of things, assuming average placed at 7/1 one fifth, I’d need 45% PLACED to make 8% on 100 bets. So my aim is minimum 15% + 45% and don’t worry too much about losing runs (19 win + 7 place LLR in 2018). Which leads to the bank — I believe 100 points (½ point EW = 1 POINT) is ideal for my comfort zone and same stakes throughout the year.
Interestingly in 2017 I bet WO throughout but at 3/1 and up….. separating 5/1 and up only, 16.50% won for Lst + 52.87 and 45% placed for Lst +33.10 so for the first time in my punting life I’ll bet regularly EW in future.
Re getting value each bet this is hit and miss and in the eye of the beholder…BOG takes care of drifters. Biggest prob is bookie restrictions….. unfortunately where I live I can’t access BF.
To sum up in my case, I use roughly the same selection methods each time and let the percentages (hopefully) come into play in the long run……… and not be scared to back at long odds sometimes.
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