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I’m off to bed
Only 1 horse has managed to carry 11-0+ to victory in last 10 years (1-2-34) and the last 6 winners have all carried 10-8 or less.
Record of top weight is
P5P4PPPPPF
(0-1-10), only 2 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.
http://www.racecaller.com/tipstergame/f … ?pid=45390you were saying…
I’m off to bed
Only 1 horse has managed to carry 11-0+ to victory in last 10 years (1-2-34) and the last 6 winners have all carried 10-8 or less.
Record of top weight is
P5P4PPPPPF
(0-1-10), only 2 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.
http://www.racecaller.com/tipstergame/f … ?pid=45390you were saying…
How many on heavy though
? That isn’t specific to ground, form of the horse that year – that’s just top weight.There was a trend around this time last year that only one horse carried over 11st to win the Aintree national. Look what happened there
Not sure that makes sense given Mon Mome carried 11-0?
The application of trends and profile work doesn’t suit everyone and a lot of care is needed with them, otherwise confusion is easy, as appears to have happened to you here. The general point I am making is blindingly obvious though.
I nicked Alpa Ridge at 20s and like Bluesea Cracker also.
Good luck with your bets.
I had this one down between 4 horses and they are all 8y olds
Alpha Ridge
Officier De Reverse
Hangover
Bluesea CrackerI think an 8y old winning this race is a good bet if anyone does it in the specials i think the place betting on Hangover is decent value but i will combine these for a forecast combo myself
How about AGUS A VIC? Given a terrible ride by Jamie Codd when 3rd last time out, the winner finished 2nd at Cheltenham, there were several more subequent winners in the field, Agus has around a 50% wins to runs record, has no weight tomorrow, good jumper and there seems to be a gamble going on
Going to stick with two of the novices tomorrow – Alpha Ridge and Telenor. Both will handle the ground and should appreciate the trip. A lot of luck needed in-running though with such a big field.
Looking at the ground today I doubt that the number of horses to complete tomorrow will be in double figures. Should be a real slog – 3m5 will seem like 5 miles.
How about AGUS A VIC? Given a terrible ride by Jamie Codd when 3rd last time out, the winner finished 2nd at Cheltenham, there were several more subequent winners in the field, Agus has around a 50% wins to runs record, has no weight tomorrow, good jumper and there seems to be a gamble going on
Always appears to be ridden like a non-stayer and I doubt he will appreciate the step up in trip.
I saw Agus a Vic run in a HUnter Chase at Down Royal Christmas 06 and it looked promising and Freneys Well was behind it.
And may I say it was the first and only time so far I hav been racing in Ireland and it was superb!! Cold but Superb!!
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Possibly one of the toughest Grand Nationals I’ve ever seen.
I am staying well clear of getting heavily involved but I do fancy Ambobo at £25 ew 25-1
Good luck if you’re going in deep on this one, think you’ll need it.
I’ve gone for Moskova ew, would have preferred a few less pounds on his back but there you go.
He ran well against the talented Pandorama at this venue in December and thrives in these testing conditions. He has never won, nor competed, over a trip beyond three miles, but he has given every indication that he should improve even further for this marathon test.
Willie Mullins is adament that he doesn’t like such testing conditions, however, and would prefer better ground. He carries 10-12 today and only one horse has carried that weight to victory in the last ten runnings of the race.I can’t see him winning, but should prove hard to keep out of the frame.
Jim Dreaper has described
He is another who should thrive in these conditions, but I feel this may come a year too early and I expect him to rise to prominence at Chepstow next Decemeber.Alpha Ridge
is my selection.
Ballytrim
each-way.
Nothing at the front of the market particularly appeals as giving an advantage value wise. This is the sort of race where I would normally have 4 or 5 running for me, but I’ve struggled to find much on this occasion. In the conditions low weights appeal and BRONTE BAY catches my eye as an unexposed sort over fences who is likely to benefit from the extended distance.
I’ve lumped for Hangover as the main bet with small ew on Bluesea Cracker and Leanne.
Just my opinion from a different point of view and no merit other than that.
Fairyhouse 4.05Eliminate those outside the mathematical odds of 29/1 =
1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 18, 19 ,20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 28, 29.leaving for consideration =
3, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 26, 27, 30.3. Equus Maximus, Mullins/Walsh merit consideration.
8. Ballytrim, Mullins
12. Telenor, no strong opinion
13. Alpha Ridge, by form Nolan/Cawley could go well
14. Officier De Reserve, no strong opinion
15. Hangover, no strong opinion
16. A New Story, form OK best in at the weights with 7 lb claimer IMO.
17. Across The Bay, no strong opinion
26. Saddler’s Storm, obvious form choice
27. Will Jamie Run, form OK
30. Agus A Vic, no strong opinionHave had small e/w bets on Bluesea Cracker and Stewart’s House, just for an interest.
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