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I notice that Magician is likely to run in the Irish 2000 guineas rather than the Derby. Of course he could run in both, but as there’s only a week between both races I very much doubt it.
O’Brien is strongly represented here, and my vote indeed goes to Magician, who can go one better than his damsire, Mozart, who finished second in this race. He was outstayed that day, but Magician is by Galileo, so the combination of staying power and sprinting speed could prove lethal in the context of this race.
The Irish 1000 looks even stronger. Just the Judge looks a worthy favorite, but I find it hard choosing between her and Dermot Weld’s very promising filly Big Break, although she might need the rain to come to take her place.
Given her high cruising speed and the fact that Curragh is a galloping track, which should suit her as she just gallops and probably lacks a blistering change of gears, the vote just goes to Charles Hill’s filly. Moth is still in but I think she’s more likely to go for the Oaks than this.
I know Dermot Weld has said in recent days he’d like t see a bit of rain but here’s what he said after her maiden win on good ground:
It was an impressive performance and
she loves that fast ground
. I’ll speak to Lord Grimthorpe (the Abdullah racing manager) to see if we run her again. We’ll consider the C L Weld Stakes which is named after my father. That’s at the Curragh in a few weeks time. If the ground has gone though we’ll put her away until next season. I see her as a potential English 1000 Guineas filly, she’s very talented. If she has the courage of her full-brother (Famous Name) she won’t let us down on many days.
Her next win was on ground described as soft, and here’s what Weld had to say:
Big Break did what we expected. She was very impressive when she won her maiden here on a fast surface and she has done it very well there on a slow surface. Pat (Smullen) said while she may have looked like she was impressive,
she’d love better ground
. She is a very talented filly and she could be a Guineas contender. I wanted to see how she’d handle today’ slow surface and she chopped and changed her legs a bit.
On the faster surface she is more explosive
and she is a miler with serious gears.
DK would hardly pull the wool over our eyes would he?
I hope the rain stays away and I think she’ll go close.
I have already mentioned this on the Derby thread through Battle of Marengo, but I fancy Loch Garman to win the IR 2000. Battle of Marengo keeps on winning, is second fav for the Derby and has done absolutely nothing wrong. Loch Garman put up a perfectly staisfactory reappearance behind DOM and according to Bolger, will come on bundles for the race. He thinks he’s a nice horse, has plaenty of speed for the drop back to a mile, so if loads more to come and no Dawn Approach in the race, 10/1 looks a massive price to me.
hmmm interesting angle.. wouldn’t be surprised if you are right as looks a very open race.
There wasn’t much confidence in Just The Judge on Guineas day but she saw off the much more touted pair Hot Snap and What A Name. I see no real reason why Moth should turn that around if she runs, other than the different track. Moth had a fitness advantage with a previous run and Just The Judge still hadn’t come in her coat at Newmarket. She should strip fitter now and hold an advantage on Big Break, who is without a run this season and it seems to me that Viztoria needs it soft to be at her best.
Tempering confidence behind Just The Judge is the fact that she looked like a step up in trip would help and I am surprised they didn’t give The Oaks a go, particularly in a race where her old rival Moth features at or near the head of the market. The other worry is that stable form is not very inspiring, with just three winners (two handicaps and a maiden) from 38 runners over the past fortnight.
Were the stable in better form I’d be tempted to make a serious bet on Just The Judge.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It would be heplful to actually a tip a runner. All Bolger’s comments pointed to Loch Garman definately running in the IR 2000….now not running…..no reason as yet.
Magician is hot favourite for the Irish 2000 G now that original favourite Cristiforo Colombo also misses the race. Just The Judge is being backed in to 11/4 from 10/3 for the 1000.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I find it strange that Magician is the favourite, or even the shortest Ballydoyle horse. George Vancouver’s form is far superior, with ground excuses for each of his defeats.
If it truly is "good to firm" at The Curragh, then I see him winning this by a few lengths.
I tend to agree. You can make a case for any of the outside Ballydoyle trio really, in particular George Vancouver. I do find it strange that Pat Smullen rides, as presumably one would have thought he would be on Flying The Flag. However, if you are backing GV you couldn’t be happier with the jockey booking. He got tired towards the end of the guineas and the heavy rain before the race can’t have helped. The ground should be very quick tomorrow I think and he’ll strip fitter. I think Magician is way too short. He was an average 2 year old whose only win came on heavy ground. He was impressive at Chester over 10 furlongs but I’m willing to take him tomorrow over a mile. I backed Cristoforo Colombo and Havana Gold ante-post but will now add GV at a tempting 14/1.
Can’t have Magician at the price, not with ground and trip concerns plus not much bare form to right home about.
Hannon likes this race and I think Van Der Neer will give him another victory today, should like the ground and the winner of this race tends to have run in our 2000.
Would have to go with Van Der Neer. Magician doesn’t look a true miler and would suspect the ground is not in his favour. Despite being apparently fourth in the Ballydoyle pecking order, Flying The Flag could be interesting given that he finished strongly in the French Guineas, of course the danger of an E/W is that he may just be there as the pace maker.
I am surprised Magician is dropping back in trip and he has much more on his plate today with the ground being fast as well. You would need a true miler today and the horse Magician beat at Chester, Contributer, was turned over at 1/2 by a Henry Cecil horse in a two horse race yesterday.
Like wise, it surprises me that Trading Leather drops back in trip. I don’t think he has the pace for this and I believe he outstayed others to be second in the Dante. I can’t shake the feeling that was a bad renewal and I am at a loss to see why Trading Leather is being supported today, other than Bolger fever.
I reckon I’d lay those two.
George Vancouver could be a real fast ground specialist but I thought he was a bit disappointing at Newmarket, even making allowances on the ground front.
Van Der Neer looks to have all that it would need to win this race but he was beaten a long way in the Guineas, and worryingly couldn’t catch a 150/1 shot. This faster ground is something he hasn’t run on since his debut and as a Racing Post Trophy runner up and all weather winner, I just wonder if he has the pace on this ground. He was 20/1 at Newmarket and I wonder what odds he would be today if he were coming straight from his Lingfield run to the fast ground at The Curragh?
I am taking a chance on Gale Force Ten, who was 4th in the French 2000 Guineas. The ground was heavy that day and being by Oasis Dream I think he’ll do better on the faster ground. Unbelievably for a horse who has had eight starts, he hasn’t actually run on fast ground yet. At 9/1 or better I’ll bang a few quid on the nose.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Trading Leather set it up for Magician by setting a suicidal gallop- hardly boosting the form of the Dante there- but the winner has bags of pace and looks as if he’ll stretch to further as well.
2nd again, story of my life.
I’d be more worried about what Van Der Neer did for the Guineas form in today’s race. In a case of History repeating itself, he was backed in to a silly price, exactly the same as Trumpet Major last year, and again he was a virtual no show as the O’Briens triumphed once more.
Very impressive winner there and he could be dangerous against his elders on that evidence. Trading Leather looks like he could be a hard horse to place and set off far too hard in front today, although he did manage to keep third place which looked unlikely after the gallop he set.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Without a doubt the best horse won, so I have to hold my hands up as I thought Magician was far too short in the betting, but he won like a good thing. Of my bets George Vancouver was disappointing while Havana Gold ran well but by the time Spencer got him going he couldn’t hall Trading Leather in for a place. Trading Leather ran with credit for a horse that surely needs further. He set what looked like a fierce pace and did well to hold on for third.
Interesting race. I have no idea what to make of the form, but Magician could be a Peeping Fawn type horse for Ballydoyle, having shown nothing until the start of this season.
I was very disappointed with George Vancouver, for all he did run-on steadily from last to midfield. Perhaps he has not trained-on.
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